Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue:A897-W578

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A897-W578

Release Date: November 1, 2015

发布日：2015年11月1日

Topic: The Way Out for the Chinese Economy II -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中国经济的出路之二 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The Way Out for the Chinese Economy II

-- Wei Jingsheng

There has been a lot of bad news recently. The bankruptcy tide in Shenzhen is just a signal. There are also many individual businesses in the mainland part of Mainland China that went bankrupt yet seem not so noticeable due to the blocked information. These represent the depth and width of the current economic crisis in China.

Another more dangerous signal is that Xi Jinping has inherited and is even growing the tradition of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. In order to buy the flattery from foreign politicians, their tradition was to sprinkle a lot of money about. Xi Jinping has excelled even further - he is not only spending a lot of money to buy things, but even more to invest for other countries. It was said that Xi threw more than one hundred billion US dollars to the Britons. He acts as if there is too much money in China and thus he wants to spend that more than one hundred billion US dollars to buy some glory to decorate his own face.

These two signals from both sides indicate that China's economic crisis will soon deepen until collapse. Of course, the experts will analyze from different aspects with more detail. We simply just take a look at these two extremes, to see why Xi Jinping will not stop until he has brought down China.

The bankruptcy signal in Shenzhen shows that the biggest difficulty China's economy faces now is the difficulty of economic restructuring, or say transition. Early on, when China's economy was developing rapidly with a favorable wind from the United States, the Chinese enterprises should have gradually began to transition, to develop into higher level. That would be a sustainable development, instead of thinking of adjustment only after one cannot sell the low-end products anymore.

Not to mention this word of "adjustment" sounds too understated. It sounds as if there is not much of a big problem, which could be passed over neatly and quickly, without realizing the seriousness of the problem. In comparison to buying the face decoration of spending more than one hundred billion US dollars, the Communist Party seems to count the economic development and people's survival as nothing. But rather, it is the British Queen and the U.K. government that put on a thick skin to fool Xi Jinping, thus making a poor country donate investment for a rich country so the people in the United Kingdom would have a better life.

Is it true that China has so much money and cannot find a place to invest it? Looking at the bankruptcy tide in Shenzhen, we should know that it requires a lot of money as a base to solve the issue of upgrading these businesses that have been operating in the red for years. As now, the capital in China is escaping the country at a rate of more than a trillion US dollars per year, plus the hundreds of billions money to buy face for the Communist Party. How could the Chinese companies find the capital to upgrade into a newer generation? As the companies accelerate their pace of bankruptcy, the collapse of China's economy is not far away and thus the collapse of China itself is not far away. As the old Chinese proverb says: "When the skin is gone, where could the hair be adhered to?" By then, it would not be far away for the Communist Party to die yet without a burial place.

Of course, I do not care whether the Communist Party collapses or not. Its earlier downfall would be a good thing for China. But if it involves Chinese people suffering again, I cannot just stand by idly. So I should point out some basic common sense to walk out of the woods.

First, at the time the companies in China need upgrading into newer generations, the Communist regime should immediately stop its so-called "diplomatic actions" to buy face by spending money. Not to mention that what the Communist regime bought was not a decoration of its face, but is truly the emperor's new clothes - a stupid action of self-deception. The Communist media has been gleefully saying that Germany and France are on their way come to Beijing to worship, but in fact it is that the British have sent a signal to the others (as popularly worded in Chinese nowadays): (they are) stupid people with a lot of money, come quickly.

Spending money to buy face would not only get no face as "stupid people", but also will directly affect the confidence of capital inside China. Whether the capital is Chinese or foreign, who would be willing to put money in the hands of fools? This is common sense that even a fool would know. Thus, it will accelerate capital fleeing abroad.

Second, the Chinese government should remove all sorts of trade barriers and non-tariff barriers, and open China's market. This enables the technology, capital, and management experience that are needed for the upgrading of Chinese enterprises to have unimpeded access to China, to accelerate the upgrading of Chinese enterprises. Maybe it would avoid a complete collapse.

The developed countries now have excess technology, capital, and management experience, especially a large amount of already obsolete technology and talent. The backwardness of China is their chance to show their talents and continue to make money. Over the past more than ten years, the motivation for Chinese bureaucratic capital to make excusive profit has obstructed these favorable factors. The basic means of obstruction is exactly due to various barriers and the lawless political system.

Third, various forms of monopoly need to be reduced and even eliminated in China, especially the large-scale monopoly in the pretext of state-ownership. We need to implement a market-oriented economy, rather than a state-owned economy that took the lead. The monopoly of state-owned enterprises is not only the root cause of the uncompetitiveness of China's economy, but also the root cause of a system that is creating billionaires along with disparity between rich and poor. Now anti-corruption measures in China is just like stirring the soup in an effort to stop the water from boiling. Only through eliminating monopolies and restoring the rule of law, can corruption be able to be controlled at minimum at its root, in the way of pulling out the burning wood under the boiling pot.

Fourth, China must be open to have free speech and stop Internet censorship. The freedom of information transmission is the premise to realize individual free will of expression. Free exchange of personal ideas is the premise for creativity; creativity is the premise for economic development continually moving upward, as well as the premise for a harmonious society. Only introducing wisdom without its own creativity has been unable to make up for decades of debt in the upgrading of Chinese enterprises. For decades now, the lack of creativity in China is proportional to the degree of lack of freedom of speech. It has nothing to with the IQ score of the Chinese people.

Finally, and also the most important, is to restore fairness and credibility to the legal system, to restore the equal protection of the law for everyone in China. The current one-party dictatorship protects a small number of lawless people, while most Chinese are treated as inferior, without the protection of law. Thus, law in China has lost all credibility it is due. The so-called to use the Communist Party to replace the law, really means the individual will and interests of the local despots of different levels easily override the law. Thus neither the Communist Party nor the law is the biggest entity; only those despots who have money and power.

This kind of political system not only hinders the economic development, but also interferes with people's lives in China. It is the main reason for the Chinese people living in misery. Without eradicating this primary cancer, without curing the root cause of this biggest illness, China's economic and social development can only be wishful thinking like "drilling the wood to get fish" and "catching the moon from the water". Even if all other aspects are doing very well, society cannot stand up to the destruction by these despots with money and power - their power being exactly from the lawlessness of the one-party dictatorship.

Therefore, the hope for China avoiding total collapse can only be pinned on the future of reform or revolution. Until the one-party dictatorship is changed, the bitter days of the Chinese are yet to come.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2015/WeiJS151029ChineseEconomyWayOut2.mp3

(Written on October 28 and recorded on October 29, 2015. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A897-W578

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A897-W578

Release Date: November 1, 2015

发布日：2015年11月1日

Topic: The Way Out for the Chinese Economy II -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中国经济的出路之二 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2015/report2015-11/WeiJS151101ChineseEconomyWayOut2A897-W578.htm

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中国经济的出路之二

-- 魏京生

最近不好的消息特别多。深圳的倒闭潮只是一个信号。很多在内地容易被封锁消息的分散的企业倒闭，看上去不那么显眼，但是代表了现在的经济危机的深度和广度。

另一个更加危险的信号，是习近平继承和发展了江泽民、胡锦涛的优良传统，为了收买外国政客对他们的奉承，大把地撒钱。而且青出于蓝而胜于蓝，不光买东西还要给人家投资。据说一家伙就给英国人仍出去一千多亿美元。好像中国的钱多得花不出去，一千多亿美元买个面子玩玩。

这两个信号是从两面夹击，预示着中国的经济危机将迅速加深，直至崩溃。当然，专家们会从更细致的方方面面分析。我们就简单地从这两个极端来看看，为什么说习近平不搞垮中国不会罢手。

深圳的信号说明了中国经济现在最大的困境，就是经济结构调整，或说转型的困难。早在中国经济借美国的东风高速发展的时候，企业就应该逐渐开始转型，向更高的档次发展。也就是可持续的发展，而不能等到低端产品卖不出去才想到要调整。

何况“调整”这个词听上去也太轻描淡写了。好像并没有什么大问题，三下五除二就过去了，并没有认识到问题的严重性。和千亿美元买个面子比起来，好像经济的发展，百姓的生存，在它共产党看来都不算什么。反倒是英国的女王和政府，为了英国老百姓的日子过得好一些。可以厚起脸皮忽悠这个大包子，让穷国给富国捐献投资。

中国的钱多得没处投资了吗？看看深圳的倒闭潮，就知道欠债多年的企业升级换代问题，需要大量的资金来垫底。现在中国的资本正以每年上万亿美元的速度逃离，再加上共产党买面子的钱，中国的企业哪里还有资本更新换代呢？随着企业倒闭潮的加快速度，中国经济的崩溃也就不远了，中国的崩溃也就不远了。皮之不存毛将焉附，共产党的死无葬身之地，也就不远了。

当然，我并不关心共产党是否倒台，早一点倒台对中国是个好事。但这牵涉到老百姓又要吃二遍苦，受二茬罪，我不可能袖手旁观。所以还是要指出走出困境的一些基本常识。

首先，在企业普遍需要升级换代的时候，中共应立即停止花钱买面子的所谓外交行动。何况那根本没有面子，真正是皇帝的新衣，自欺欺人的愚蠢行为。中共媒体兴高采烈地说什么德国、法国都要来朝拜北京了，其实那是英国发出了信号：人傻、钱多、快来。

花钱买面子工程不仅买来个“人傻”的没面子，而且直接影响到国内资本的信心。不管是中国还是外国的资本，谁愿意把钱放在傻瓜的手里呢？这是连傻瓜都知道的常识。资本外逃会因此而加速。

其次，中国政府应取消各种贸易壁垒和非贸易壁垒，开放中国的市场。这才能使中国企业升级换代所需要的技术，资本和管理经验无阻碍地进入中国，加快中国企业的升级换代。也许不至于全面崩溃。

现在发达国家有过剩的技术、资本和管理经验，特别是大量已经淘汰的技术和人才。中国的落后状态，正是它们大显身手继续赚钱的机会。过去十几年官僚资本独占利润的动机，形成了对这些有利因素的阻碍。造成障碍的基本手段，正是各种壁垒和无法无天的政治体制。

第三，就是减少以至于消灭各种形式的垄断，特别是以国营为借口的大规模的垄断。推行以市场经济为主导的，而不是以国营企业为主导的模式。国营企业的垄断地位，正是中国经济缺乏竞争力的病根，也是造就亿万富翁，造就贫富差距的体制性的病根。反腐败只是扬汤止沸，消灭垄断和恢复法制，才能够釜底抽薪地将腐败控制在最低限度。

第四，必须开放言论自由，停止网络封锁。信息传递的自由，是个人意志自由发挥的前提。个人思想的自由交流是创造力的前提；创造力是经济发展可以持续向上的前提，也是社会和谐的前提。只有引进的智慧而没有自己的创造力，已经不能弥补几十年来中国企业在升级换代方面的欠债。而中国几十年来缺乏创造力，和没有言论自由呈正比例的关系，和中国人的智商没有关系。

最后，也是最重要的，就是尽快恢复法律体系的公平和信誉，恢复法律对每一个人的平等的保护。而现行的一党专政，保障了少数人可以无法无天；大多数人低人一等，得不到法律的保障。因此法律也失去了它应有的信誉。所谓的以党代法，实际上是大大小小的土皇帝们个人意志和利益代替了法律。这既不是党大，也不是法大，而是土豪劣绅最大。

这样的政治体制，不但阻碍了经济的发展，也妨碍了人民的生活。是中国人民生活在水深火热之中的最主要的原因。不铲除这个最主要的毒瘤，不治理这个最大的病根，中国的经济和社会发展都只能是缘木求鱼、水中捞月。即使其它各方面都做得很好，也经不住土豪劣绅们的破坏。而土豪劣绅们的力量，正好来自一党专政的无法无天。

所以中国避免全面崩溃的希望，只能寄托在改革或者革命的前途上了。不改变一党专政的体制，老百姓的苦日子还在后头呢。