Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A907-W588

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A907-W588

Release Date: December 20, 2015

发布日：2015年12月20日

Topic: The Dilemma of China (part 1) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中国的困境(之一) -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:

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The Dilemma of China (part 1)

-- Wei Jingsheng

Xi Jinping, as the current supreme leader in China, has caused a dilemma in China. Or we can also say that his dilemma is the dilemma of China. Indeed, Xi Jinping really has fallen into a dilemma, a dilemma that followed by China.

What can you see out of it? From his recent frequent visits abroad, one can tell that he has lost control of domestic affairs and had to use the visits to boost the morale for himself and his people; he wants to use "the money diplomacy" to make up for failures in domestic politics.

Many people, including overseas Chinese media, have not realized it yet. They would question: Is not Xi Jinping's effort to make himself a god very successful? Is not it true that his anti-corruption movement is very popular? That Daddy Xi and his wife Mammy Peng flashing in the international arena illustrates that their momentum is fierce? When did Xi get caught in a dilemma?

So let us start by talking about the flashy and bright title of "Daddy Xi and Mammy Peng". Even people who want to be dictators may not be so nauseating. Even a true dictator as Mao Zedong did not have the nerve to make people so nauseated by touting himself. Confucius said, one cannot reach when one gets too far. He meant that when what is overdone it actually cannot be accomplished -- which exactly fits this modern nauseating phenomenon.

Do not claim that is the Chinese people's way to express their love to Xi Jinping. The Chinese people have experienced the Cultural Revolution. Even during that frenzied era, the Chinese people were not nauseated to this level. Now the Chinese are more conscious than they were then; how could they be even more nauseated? This is just a trick well arranged. It is sort of like the deceptive acts during the ancient peasant uprising (in 184 A.D.) when they "found" some miracle note in a fish's stomach with the slogan "it is the end of the Han dynasty, when the color of yellow will born out of it."

This set of childish stuff may be used to cheat some humble ancient peasants. Moreover, that was when people wanted to rebel and would accept this cheating to meet their desire. When the emperor's court was not reasonable, they would not want to be reasonable either. When the emperor's court cheated people every day with lies, why should not the people lie? People believe in the lies that meet their psychological needs. This is the retribution referred in Buddhism.

The retribution for the nauseating "Daddy Xi and Mammy Peng" title came much faster. Upon listening to that terminology, not only did the average Chinese feel it strange, but also the officials were scared, even the older cadres who experienced the Cultural Revolution felt horrified. The pernicious Cultural Revolution was not long ago. The success of a dictator means all these who deserve credit around him must be killed. These surrounding officials are the biggest threat to imperial power. If people were fooled before, it could be counted as confusion due to fanaticism. If they still do not understand after the Cultural Revolution, then they really do have an IQ problem.

So that beautiful title of "Daddy Xi" may appear to be nauseating, funny and fun for the average Chinese. It may be used to remove corrupt officials, and thus relieve people's anger. We can wait and see. But to the bureaucrats, it is terrible and should make them shiver, not so fun anymore. On the road to the making of a dictator, many bureaucrats would become stepping-stones and run out of luck.

The result of that so-called anticorruption campaign came out so quickly is a little surprising. Now, the foxtail is exposed - in the name of anti-corruption, the real purpose was to remove dissidents within the Communist leadership and build the dictatorship of Xi Jinping. Some people went to jail, so their vacated positions could be replaced by some others. The higher the level of corrupt officials going to jail, the more favorable to arrange members within the dictatorial group to replace them. In fact, this has nothing to do with corruption or anti-corruption.

The average Chinese are just spectators during this kind of anti-corruption campaign. They would not gain any benefit from it. For bureaucrats, it is a serious matter with one's own life and the relationship with one's relatives and friends are all under review. Before a dictatorship is formed, the cronies are still a minority. If the majority does not take measures to stop the dictator, it would be too late. Moreover, one cannot predict whom will be the ones getting bad luck during the making of a dictatorship, so timely counterattack is a must.

Thus we saw the crash of the stock market in Chinese finance; thus we saw the depressed Mr. Xi during that big military parade, as yet to wake up; thus we also saw his most important visit to the United States ending in failure. According to the summary of the Chinese government in Zhongnanhai, its diplomatic department is in trouble. It seems that it cannot be accidental as this series of counter-attacks got released in such a short time.

The not so openly publicized part is the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Congress of the Communist Party one-month ago. There are a lot of rumors that are colorful and dazzling. Of there rumors, there are touted ones, and also ones trying to explain and ones offering analysis. According to the changed situation before and after the Fifth Plenary Session, the most reliable theory is that during that session, a majority was against the god-making and anti-corruption movement of Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan. The result is that before the forming of a dictatorship, corrupt officials counterattacked collectively to protect their own interests by a majority rule.

Currently China has a bad economic situation and even worse politics. The struggle between the collective leadership and a dictatorship intensified into a game of life and death. The whole country will likely fall into turmoil. The sidelined people will always be victims.

It is very much like a cycle of history coming back again, when then well-known educator Huang Yanpei talked to Mao Zedong (in 1945). Mao's answer was very clear -- only the road towards democracy would break this vicious cycle of history. However, for Mao personally, certainly he was more comfortable in dictatorship than democracy. He had already been set up as god in accordance with the practice of Marxism-Leninism. So why shouldn't he follow Stalinism in continuing his dictatorship? This is the fate of the Chinese people over the past several decades: a little chaotic world for the people of little bitter lives.

Xi Jinping adheres to his study of Mao Zedong, yet lacks the favorable time and place, as well as the people's support. As his god-making movement just took shape, he already got a punch on his face. When his dictatorship forms, there will be tens of thousands lives lost. When the Cultural Revolution reappears, the Chinese people will suffer. Yet, when he loses his fight, all the others will join in the endless fighting for leadership, which will be even worse and more chaotic than the Cultural Revolution, and the Chinese people will suffer even more. It will be a dilemma in either way. How to get rid of it?

This dilemma that has existed for thousands of years in China has only one solution. This dilemma has only one way out. It is what Mao Zedong answered Huang Yanpei: democracy can break this cycle. Plus the rule that "those who ride along the mighty tide of history will prosper, while those against the tide will perish."

If Xi Jinping walks towards democracy, he could surpassing Mao and being a hero of a generation -- he could always be admired by the people just like George Washington is in the US. If he continues his walk toward dictatorship, there would be only a dead end. Now, we can already see the results. He will also be notorious and betrayed by his followers, ending up dead without burial eventually.

There is an ancient Chinese saying: "When a country prospers, it could be really fast, but it could also die really fast." At this time of life and death of our country, faces the suffering of our people, all of us should think about it, as well as what role we might play.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2015/WeiJS151202ChinaDilemma1.mp3

(Written and recorded on December 2, 2015. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A907-W588

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A907-W588

Release Date: December 20, 2015

发布日：2015年12月20日

Topic: The Dilemma of China (part 1) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中国的困境(之一) -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2015/report2015-12/WeiJS151220ChinaDilemma1A907-W588.htm

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中国的困境(之一)

-- 魏京生

习近平是中国现任的最高领导人，中国的困境就是他造成的。也可以说，他的困境就是中国的困境。习近平确实陷入了困境。中国也跟着陷入了困境。

从哪儿可以看出来呢？从他最近频繁的出国访问，可以看出来他对国内的事务失去了掌控，不得不用出访来给自己和自己人打气，或者说想用金钱外交来弥补国内政治的失败。

很多人，包括国外的中文媒体都还没反应过来。习总的造神运动不是很成功吗？反腐败不是很得人心吗？习大大、彭麻麻亮丽闪现在国际舞台，不正说明势头正猛吗？什么时候陷入困境了？

先从这个亮丽闪现的头衔说起。想当独裁者也不能这么让人肉麻，连毛泽东这样的真正的独裁者，也没好意思让人这么肉麻地吹捧自己。孔夫子说，过犹不及。意思是过分了反倒达不到，说的正是现代的这个肉麻现象。

别跟我说什么人民在表达热爱。经过文化大革命的人民，在那个狂热的时代，也没肉麻到这个水平，现在的人民比那个时代清醒多了，怎么反而更肉麻了呢？这摆明了是安排好的把戏。就像古代农民起义从鱼肚子里找出一个什么“苍天已死，黄天当立”的神迹一样，是骗人的勾当。

这一套小儿科的玩意儿，骗一骗老实巴交的古代农民还行。何况当时人们就想造反，就愿意受骗，这迎合了造反者的愿望。朝廷不讲理，俺们也不讲理。朝廷天天在骗人，俺们怎么就不能骗人哩？迎合人民心理的骗人，你爱信不信，反正大家信了。这就是佛家说的报应。

习近平的肉麻报应得更快，不仅老百姓听着怪怪的，当官的听了可能是怕怕的，经过了文革的老干部听了就是要命的。文革的殷鉴不远。一个独裁者的成功，必须要杀尽周围的功臣。因为他们是皇权的最大威胁。以前被忽悠了不懂，算是被狂热迷惑了眼睛。经过了文革还不懂，就是智商出了问题。

所以那个亮丽的头衔，在老百姓看来是肉麻、可笑、好玩儿。也许能扫除贪官污吏，给老百姓出口气也不错。大家可以拭目以待。但在官僚们看来就是可怕，瑟瑟发抖，不那么好玩了。独裁者一路走下来，不知道要用多少官僚做垫脚石；也不知什么时候什么人倒霉。

反腐败的结果这么快就出来了，有点令人意外。狐狸的尾巴露出来了，原来不过是清除异己，塑造独裁，借助反腐败的名义而已。一些人进监狱了，给另外一些亲信腾位子。越高层的贪官进监狱，越有利于安排独裁集团的人。其实和腐败反腐败没多大关系。

这样的反腐败，老百姓只不过是看客，没什么利益可得。对官僚们可就严重了，身家性命、亲戚里道的关系，不可不查。独裁尚未成型，亲信还是少数，少数服从多数。现在不下手阻止独裁者，就来不及了。何况塑造独裁不知道谁会倒霉，必须及时反攻。

于是大家就看到了股市金融大崩溃；于是我们又看到了大阅兵时候，主席先生灰头搭脑，好像没睡醒；于是我们还看到了最重要的出访美国，以失败告终。据中南海方面总结，外交系统有麻烦了。这一系列的反击，在短时间内出炉，似乎不能说是偶然的。

不公开的部分，就是中共的十八届五中全会--谣言很多，五彩纷呈，眼花缭乱。谣言中有吹捧的，有解释的，有分析的。根据五中全会前后的局势变化来看，最可靠的说法是，习近平、王岐山的造神加反腐运动，遭到了多数人的反对。结果就是独裁还未成型，贪官集体反攻，保护自身利益，少数服从多数。

现在的经济形势不好，政治又雪上加霜。集体领导和独裁之间的斗争越演越烈，你死我活。整个国家将因此而陷入动乱，受害的总是老百姓，那些正在作壁上观的老百姓。

这很像是那个历史的循环来了，就是黄炎培对毛泽东说到的那个历史的循环。毛泽东回答得很清楚，要打破这个历史的恶性循环，只有走向民主这一条路。但是对他个人来说，独裁肯定比民主来得舒服。他已经按照马列主义的实践经验被树立为神，为什么不按照斯大林主义继续独裁专制呢？这就是过去几十年中国人的命运：天下小乱，人民小苦。

习近平坚持学习毛泽东，却没有毛泽东的天时、地利、人和。造神运动初见端倪，就遭遇迎头痛击。斗赢了，独裁成型万骨枯；文革再现，百姓受苦。斗输了，群雄争霸斗不休，还不如文革，比文革更乱，老百姓更受苦。正反都是个困局，怎样才能摆脱呢？

这个几千年的难题只有一个解，这个困局只有一条出路。这就是毛泽东回答黄炎培的那句话，民主可以打破这个循环律。而且还要加上历史大潮，浩浩荡荡；顺之者昌，逆之者亡。

习近平如果走向民主，他就是超越毛泽东的一代英雄，像华盛顿那样永远受人民敬仰。如果他继续走向独裁，就是死路一条，这个现在已经可以看得出结果了。他本人也将遗臭万年，并且被他的追随者们背叛，落得个死无葬身之地的下场。

其兴也勃，其亡也忽。在这国之兴亡、人民苦难的关头，所有人都要想一想，思考一下自己可能扮演什么角色。