Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A911-W592

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A911-W592

Release Date: January 17, 2016

发布日：2016年1月17日

Topic: A New Situation in the New Year (part 3) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：新年新形势(之三) -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2016/report2016-01/WeiJS160117NewYear3A911-W592.htm which contains identical information.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

A New Situation in the New Year (part 3)

-- Wei Jingsheng

(Written and recorded on January 11, 2016. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

A new situation in the New Year that has received the most attention from everyone, and is also most important, is the economy. The changing economy is not only related to the survival of the Communist regime, but also to the livelihoods of every household in China.

Unfortunately, I have to report the bad news. In the year 2016, the economy in China will continue its decline and will becoming worse than it was in 2015. Although the Communist media is saying good words about the economy, and the foreign media that have been bought out by the regime are also helping from sidelines, neither still could conceal the accelerated decline of the economic situation in China.

Right after the New Year Day, the stock markets in China once again slumped, just as violently as last summer. The so-called stock market circuit-breaker mechanism that was just established by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), took action immediately and stopped the trading of the whole stock market. However, it did not work with the intended positive effect. It had the opposite effect. Within less than one week, there was a spate of melting of this circuit breaker, which caused the cancellation of this mechanism. In a little more than one week's time, the Chinese stock prices fell by more than ten percent and returned back to levels before 2014. A common phrase used in China nowadays is: "all returned to the (miserable) time before the Liberation."

Some people want to find excuses to explain this stock market crash. They said it was due to the lift of the ban on selling stock after the slump last year, so a lot of stock flew to the market, resulting in a temporary slump. Right after that, the fuse blew up again, which made these lackeys and the Internet police have difficulty finding more excuses.

What is the stock market? It really is a market only when people trade with confidence. After the lifting of the ban, business executives in China threw a lot of stocks to the market, illustrating their lack of confidence in this economy. Who has the best understanding of the economic situation? Not those observers who earn their livelihood by cheating others, but the senior managers who operate the economy.

Regardless what they say, they would not put their wallets in a disadvantageous position. They are frantically selling their own stock, which shows the economic situation is very bad in China, and not just bad in the short term. If it was bad only in the short term, large shareholders would still have the patience to wait for long-term plans. Yet they do not have the patience to wait, which means that long-term projections are very bad as well. Even more, the forecast of the Chinese economy as a whole is very bad. So the insiders have no confidence, and have to sell stocks in order to reduce their losses.

Smart investors will not be fooled by the big deception of the media. They will follow those big shareholders who have inside information. So they will also sell their stocks as soon as possible in order to reduce losses or make a small profit. This trading makes a bad stock market even worse, causing the prices to fall even faster to form a crash.

Why don't the economic "experts" have confidence in the long-term economic situation in China? That is because the bubble economy based on the more than ten years abnormal development in China has resulted in a very unreasonable economic structure. There are two basic pillars in the rapid economic development of China: one is its trade overseas, the other is its overbuilt infrastructure.

Regarding China's overseas trade, it suffers from its uneven quality of products due to rapid development. It is full of inferior products and counterfeit goods. After being deceived for more than ten years, Western consumers have become increasingly rejecting these counterfeit and inferior goods. Even without trade barriers, resistance in the international trade will grow. The profits from the foreign trade have been the bulk part of China's economic profit. Its shrinking is an inevitable trend.

The response from Xi Jinping's team is the so-called "supply-side structural reform". This direction is right, but too far away to put out the nearby fire. It will take years for all the export enterprises to change their direction according to the market and improve their quality, resulting in several years of stagnation in China's economy. That is a road of adjustment that one cannot go around to pass.

We have witnessed the result of the overbuilt infrastructure. One may argue that public construction will be beneficial to future generations, so not completely a waste. But, there are too many vacant housing constructions, which is a real waste. A great amount of wealth is staying out of the market for turnover, which is resulting in a shrinking market while reproduction is also short of funds. According to the estimation of the experts, 30 to 40 trillion RMB of funds are needed in order to save this economic crisis.

This figure far exceeds the four trillion RMB fund of (former premier) Wen Jiabao when he tried to rescue the economy (in 2008). It will be a burden of inflation that Chinese economy and society cannot afford. In addition, with about ten trillion RMB capital fleeing China every year, it is impossible to save the Chinese economy in the short term. There is not much hope of the long-term forecast either. This is the root cause of the plummeting stock prices in the market of confidence.

The goal of each economic unit is to put its own property in a safe place, at least not to be quickly depreciated. The trend of capital to flee China is irreversible. We should not blame the incompetence of Xi Jinping's economic advisors, because the situation now has greatly exceeded the functional range of these scholars. These economists cannot speak clearly of the complicated consequences that were brought on by the political factors.

For example, the instability of the autocratic politics is the long-term reason for the capital to flee. Without reforming the political system, the property will be concentrated in the hands of the most insecure political class. Whether the economy is good or bad, whenever possible, they will try to transfer as much property to safe places as they can, including their wives and children.

Another reason for the market dysplasia in China is also an inevitable consequence of authoritarian politics. Unchecked power has been controlled in the hands of a small group. They cannot maintain the fairness of the market. This is true in China, as well as in the hands of its little dictator brothers in the third world. It is not an issue of who is wise and who is not. This is a regular pattern.

One more example is the wealth loss from the foreign trade and abnormal development of the infrastructure in China. If there is not this commanded economy from the authoritarian regime, how could the market allow such deformities to happen? If officials at all levels were responsible to their own voters, rather than staring at the butts of their superiors, why would they waste wealth to seek for career advances and to make a fortune as they are now? When they could get promoted and make a fortune by using billions of funds to build a ghost city, why shouldn't they?

The inferior products and counterfeit goods in the foreign trade is a product of the collusion between the politicians and capitalists of both China and the United States. Without the guarantee of autocratic politics, would this kind of policy that treats everyone as blind while cheats and exploits the people of both countries be implemented and maintained? On the one hand, China's manufacturing sector is deformed with counterfeit and low quality products. On the other hand, the consumers in the United States are deceived and its workers have lost their jobs. Only unscrupulous politicians and black-hearted capitalists earn hugely, while people and economies in both countries get in trouble.

This is the new situation for the Chinese economy in the New Year. This bitter fruit from a long history of political deformity cannot be solved by a couple of scholars. Xi Jinping enjoys his position comfortably, as he has yet to solve the problem. Then people in China will have to continue their contribution to this country through their hard work and enduring difficulty in their lives.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2016/WeiJS160111NewYear3.mp3

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is a message from WeiJingSheng.org

The Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help in any means. We pledge solidarity to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this planet.

You are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website at: www.weijingsheng.org

Although we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your contribution as well. You may send your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files, not in attachments.

For website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org

To find out more about us, please also visit our websites at: www.WeiJingSheng.org and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org for news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.

You may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or

Wei Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-270-6980

Wei Jingsheng Foundation's postal address is:

Wei Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA

You are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process your request.

*****************************************************************

中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A911-W592

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A911-W592

Release Date: January 17, 2016

发布日：2016年1月17日

Topic: A New Situation in the New Year (part 3) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：新年新形势(之三) -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2016/report2016-01/WeiJS160117NewYear3A911-W592.htm

-----------------------------------------------------------------

新年新形势(之三)

-- 魏京生

（撰写并录音于2016年1月11日。自由亚洲电台播出。）

新年新形势中最受到大家关注的，也是最重要的；并且关系到中共生死存亡，也关系到每家每户生计的，就是经济。

遗憾的是，不得不给大家报个坏消息了。2016年的经济会继续下滑，比2015年还要糟糕。尽管中共的媒体说好话，被中共收买的外国媒体也在帮助敲边鼓，但还是掩盖不住加速下滑的经济形势。

刚过新年，股票市场就再度暴跌，跌幅和去年夏天一样猛烈。证监会刚刚建立的所谓熔断机制，就立刻发生作用，整个市场停止交易。不过发生的不是正面的效果，而是反面的效果。不到一星期之内，接连发生熔断，导致不得不取消这个机制。一个多星期跌掉了百分之十几，回到了2014年以前的水平。俗语说就是“一夜回到了解放前”。

有人想为股市暴跌做解释，说是去年暴跌后禁止抛售的禁令解除了，所以大量的股票流向市场，造成了暂时性的暴跌。话音刚落，又熔断了一次。搞得马屁精和五毛们都不好说话了。

股票市场是什么？就是信心交易的市场。禁令一解除，企业高管们就把大量股票抛出，说明他们对经济没有信心。谁对经济状况最了解？不是那些靠忽悠骗饭吃的什么观察家，正是操作经济的这些高级管理人员。

他们嘴上不管说什么，自己的钱包是不能吃亏的。他们疯狂抛售自己的股票，就说明经济状况非常糟糕，而且不是短期内糟糕。如果是短期内糟糕，大股东会有耐心等待，作长期打算。他们没有耐心等待，就说明长期预测也很糟糕，而且是对整个经济的预测也很糟糕。所以内行人就没有信心，不得不抛售股票以减少损失。

聪明的投资人不会被媒体大忽悠给蒙骗，他们会跟着这些知道内情的大股东们走。所以也尽快抛售股票以减少损失，或小赚一笔。这就给股票市场雪上加霜，下跌的速度加倍，形成了暴跌的形势。

为什么经济内行人士们对长期经济形势没有信心呢？这是因为前面十几年的畸形经济发展造成的泡沫，其结果就是经济结构十分不合理。中国经济高速发展有两个基本支柱，一部分是面向海外的贸易，一部分是过度的基础建设。

面向海外的部分由于发展过快，萝卜快了不洗泥，质量参差不齐。说白了就是充斥着残次品和仿造货。经过了十几年受骗上当，西方消费者已经越来越不接受这些假冒伪劣品。即使没有贸易壁垒，国际贸易的阻力也会越来越大。对外贸易的利润是中国经济利润的大头。收缩已是必然趋势。

习近平团队的应对措施，就是所谓的“供给侧”改革。这个方向是对的，可惜远水解不了近渴。等到所有出口企业根据市场改变方向，并且提高了质量，中国的经济需要停滞若干年，到时候黄瓜菜都凉了。但这也是绕不过去的调整之路。

过度基建的结果大家有目共睹。公共建设还可以说有利于子孙后代，不完全算浪费。商品房建设空置量太大，就是真正的浪费。大量财富停留在市场周转之外，造成市场萎缩，再生产也缺乏资金。据专家估算，需要三、四十万亿资金才能挽救经济危机。

这个数字远远超过了温家宝的四万亿拯救经济，是中国经济和社会无法承受的通货膨胀负担。再加上每年十万亿左右的资本外逃，短期内挽救经济根本就不可能。长期预测也没有多大的希望。这就是信心市场股价暴跌的根本原因。

经济单元们的目标是把自己的财产放在安全的地方，至少不要快速贬值。资本外逃的趋势不可逆转。这不能怪习近平的经济智囊无能，因为现在的局面已经大大超出学者们的职能范围。是政治因素带来的复杂后果，不是经济学家们说得清楚的。

例如专制政治的不稳定性，是资本外逃的长期原因。不改革政治体制，财产就会集中在政治上最不安全的阶级手中。不管经济是好是坏，他们在可能的情况下，会把尽可能多的财产转移到安全地带，包括老婆和孩子。

又例如市场发育不良的原因，也是专制政治的一个必然后果。不受制约的权力掌握在一个集团手里。他们不可能维护市场的公平。在中国如此，在第三世界的独裁小兄弟们手里也一样。这不是谁英明不英明的问题。这是规律。

再例如外贸和基本建设畸形发展带来的财富损失。如果没有专制的命令经济，市场怎么会允许这样的畸形出现呢？如果各级官员都要为自己的选民负责，而不是两只眼睛盯着上级的屁股，为什么要浪费财富去谋求升官发财呢？几十亿资金拿去建设鬼城就可以升官发财，何乐而不为呢？

外贸上的萝卜快了不洗泥，则是中美两国政客和资本家勾结的成果。没有专制政治做保障，这种瞒天过海欺骗剥削两国老百姓的政策，能够落实并且维持下来吗？一方面中国的制造业假冒伪劣结构畸形，另一方面美国的消费者被欺骗而且大量失业。只有无良政客和黑心资本家赚得盆满钵满，两国人民和两国的经济都陷入了困境。

这就是新年的经济新形势。这是长期以来政治畸形带来的恶果，不是一两个学者能解决的老问题。习近平的位子坐得很牢靠，看来他还没到要解决问题的时候。老百姓只得继续吃苦耐劳给国家作贡献吧。