Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A923-W603
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A923-W603
Release
Date: February 27, 2016
发布日：2016年2月27日
Topic:
A Reality Check for Burma/Myanmar -- Roland Watson
标题：缅甸的现实 -- 罗兰·沃森
Original
Language Version: English (Chinese version at the end)
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A
Reality Check for Burma/Myanmar
--
Roland Watson
DICTATOR
WATCH (www.dictatorwatch.org)
Contact:
Roland Watson, roland@dictatorwatch.org
A
REALITY CHECK FOR BURMA/MYANMAR
February
13, 2016
This
is a speech I gave on February 11th at the Asia Democracy Alliance Seminar in the
U.S. Congress. Please post and share.
http://www.dictatorwatch.org/prADAtalk.html
I've
been a pro-democracy activist for going on twenty-two years. I've mainly worked
on China's neighbor, Burma, which is now also known as Myanmar.
I've
focused on the suffering of the ethnic minorities of the country. They prefer
the term ethnic nationalities. There's no proof that any group has a majority.
Today,
I'm going to talk about the country in a way which - to Westerners - might seem
unfamiliar. It's not to the people of Burma. I hope it will be enlightening.
It's
important to realize that Burma wasn't even a country until the British arrived
in the 1820s. The borders were really only drawn following World War II. Many
groups, particularly in the North and Northeast, had been functionally
independent. At this time, an extraordinary array of ethnic peoples were
grouped together in one nation.
Starting
in the Southwest and going around the perimeter, there are the Arakan,
Rohingya, Chin, Naga, Kachin, Kokang, Wa, Mongla, Shan, Lahu, Lisu, Palaung,
Pa-O, Akha, Karenni, Karen, Mon, and Burman peoples. That's 18 groups, and
there are others as well.
The
first to migrate into the territory were the Pyu, from Yunnan, China, followed
by the Mon, Karen and Arakan. Then the Burmans appeared in the 9th century, and
launched an aggressive series of wars. The Pyu city-states were destroyed and
the entire people absorbed. Burman kings have maintained some degree of control
since this time. In the 18th century, they committed genocides against the Mon
and the Arakan.
When
the first modern dictator, Burman General Ne Win, seized control in 1962, he
attacked many of the groups, and with the attacks against the Shan, Karenni and
Karen also rising to the level of genocide. The Muslim Rohingya in the West
suffered severe persecution in the late 1970s, the early 1990s, and once again
starting in 2012, such that they are experiencing a slow-burning genocide as
well.
Because
of the actions of the Burmans, the leaders of which believe themselves to be
superior, and in the majority, the country has not only had civil war since
1948, it has suffered a full one thousand years of racist Burman control. In
the last year alone, the Burma Army has launched attacks against at least seven
different ethnic armies. There are six refugee of war crises underway right
now, not to mention an estimated two million people who have fled the country
looking for work.
Burma
though, in the press, and in the U.S. Administration and Europe, is considered
to be a great success. This is because Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for
Democracy now has a majority in Parliament.
I
would caution against having irrational exuberance for the future. Suu Kyi and
the other top NLD leaders are also Burman, as are the majority of MPs. The
ethnic nationalities have minimal representation.
In
recent years there has been a call for tripartite dialogue, between the
dictatorship, the NLD, and the ethnic groups. The Burman generals always
refused. Now, with the NLD in Parliament and with the military still
unreformed, the two formal power centers are both Burman.
Many
of the ethnic nationality people believe that they have been cast aside. They
have to depend on Suu Kyi to defend their interests, and as she has ignored the
ethnic issue in the past, there's not a lot of confidence that she will.
Finally,
if Suu Kyi is good-hearted, if she is not a racist herself, she has formidable
obstacles to overcome. The military-drafted constitution guarantees 25% of the
seats in Parliament to military representatives. This means that even though
the NLD won the recent election by a landslide, there is still a large military
block in the legislature.
More
importantly, under the Constitution the military controls the Defense, Border
Affairs, and Interior ministries, and which take the bulk of the national
budget. Border Affairs covers large-scale development in the ethnic homelands,
which development the ethnic groups do not want. Interior covers the police and
prisons, which are still full of political prisoners, and also the General
Administration Department, or civil service, down to the township level.
What
this means is that the powers of the new Parliament are severely limited, only
a fraction of a true national government. And, to get anything done, it will
have to work with a hostile, military-run civil service.
Burma
is balanced in a precarious equilibrium, and which can shatter at any time. The
Constitution also allows the military to launch a coup and resume absolute
control, in the interests of national security. Soldiers and police further
have immunity for any abuses and crimes that they commit.
You
could say that Suu Kyi and the NLD are stuck between the people and the
generals. The people want freedom and rights, and they, and many of their MPs,
will push for it. The generals don't want to yield anything. Suu Kyi has to try
to please everyone. As I wrote in one of my articles, what could possibly go
wrong?
As
a forecast, I don't think Suu Kyi will be able to hold back the popular
aspirations. The military will become more and more stressed. In the meantime,
the ethnic armies will never disarm. I think there is a 25% if not a 50% chance
that there will be a coup within the next five years.
I
want to conclude by talking briefly about China's interests in Burma.
Geopolitically, China sees the country as a rich source of natural resources,
and as an alternative route to the Indian Ocean. Chinese businesses already
have major stakes in large mines, pipelines, dams, and many other operations.
Politically,
Beijing has been trying to favor all of the different sides. The Burman
generals are clients. But, China also supports some of the strongest ethnic
armies. Suu Kyi even has kind words for Beijing.
There
has been a report that she will bargain with China over the peace issue. If
China pressures the ethnic armies to sign a nationwide ceasefire, she will
allow more Chinese dam building and resource extraction.
From
my perspective, though, I don't think she can pull it off. The ethnic armies
won't abandon their peoples.
In
any case, China has one core interest that overrides everything. Even business
interests will be sacrificed if necessary. Notwithstanding its Parliament,
Burma must remain under military control. China cannot have a new, real
democracy on its borders.
Not
only would it feed the longing for democracy in China itself, it would give
hope to the long-oppressed Tibetans, and the Uyghurs of East Turkestan.
Because
of this, China will never stop backing Burma's generals, which they well know.
The generals have been fooling the West, and which con game Washington and
European diplomats have been only too happy to swallow, because of their own
lust for Burma's resources.
(The
Wei Jingsheng Foundation is grateful to Yi Shi for his translation of this
report into Chinese and his other contributions to this Foundation.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A923-W603
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A923-W603
Release
Date: February 27, 2016
发布日：2016年2月27日
Topic:
A Reality Check for Burma/Myanmar -- Roland Watson
标题：缅甸的现实 -- 罗兰·沃森
Original
Language Version: English (Chinese version at the end)
此号以英文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2016/report2016-02/WatsonRspeech160227atADAseminarA923-W603.htm
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缅甸的现实
-- 罗兰·沃森
roland@dictatorwatch.org, 独裁者观察 (www.dictatorwatch.org)
2016年2月13日
以下为我2月11日在国会举行的亚洲民主联盟会议上发表的演讲。请张贴和分享。
http://www.dictatorwatch.org/prADAtalk.html
我进行民主活动已经22年了。我的工作主要是中国的近邻：缅甸。
我侧重于了解关注这个国家少数民族的痛苦。他们倾向于使用“民族国家”这个名词，但其实没有证据表明任何一个民族是“多数”。
今天，我要谈谈这个西方人可能会感到陌生的国家。这不是给缅甸人民的演讲，但我希望今天的演讲会给您们带来启发。
我们必须意识到，直到英国在19世纪20年代到达缅甸前，缅甸甚至不是一个国家。其国家边境其实是在第二次世界大战之后才划的。许多团体，特别是在其北部和东北部，都曾功能性地独立过。如今，不同寻常的民族的人民汇聚在一起，成为一个国家。
在其西南地区及周边，还有若开族、罗辛亚族、钦族、娜迦族、克钦族、果敢族、佤族、勐腊族、山族、拉祜族、傈僳族、巴朗族、巴奥族、阿卡族、克伦尼族、克伦族、孟族、缅甸族等18个族群和其它族群。
首先迁移到该领土的是来自中国云南的骡族，其次是孟族、克伦族和若开族。然后在公元9世纪，缅甸族出现并积极展开一系列的战争。骡族的城邦被摧毁，人民也被同化。从此以后，缅甸国王们对这片领土一直保持着一定程度的控制。在18世纪，他们对孟族和若开族进行种族屠杀。
奈温将军是缅甸的第一个现代的独裁者。在1962年奈温将军获得控制时，他攻击并屠杀了许多民族。他对山族、克伦尼族和克伦族的进攻达到了种族灭绝的程度。在1970年代末和1990年代初，以及自2012年起，在其西部的穆斯林罗兴亚人遭受了严重的迫害，正经历着缓慢的种族灭绝。
由于缅甸族人的行为，缅甸族领导人认为自己比别人优越，且占多数。这个国家不仅仅自1948年以来内战不断，而且近千年来被种族歧视的缅甸族所控制。仅在去年，缅甸军发动了对至少七个不同种族的攻击。此时，有六个种族的难民都面临着战争危机，而逃离该国出外找工作的人已达到两百万。
然而在媒体以及美欧当局，缅甸被认为是一个巨大的成功。这是因为昂山素季的全国民主联盟目前在议会中占多数。
我奉劝不要对未来非理性的繁荣抱有幻想。昂山素季和其它高级民盟领导人及多数国会议员都是缅甸人，相对而言，其它少数民族只有非常小的代表性。
近年来，一直有在独裁者、民盟和族群之间举行三方谈话的要求。但缅甸的将军们始终拒绝这一要求。现在，全国民主联盟主持着议会而军方仍未变革，两个正式的权力中心都是缅甸族的。
很多少数民族的人认为，他们已经被抛在一边。他们必须依赖于昂山素季捍卫自己的利益，但因为她在过去也忽视民族问题，所以大多数人对她没有很大的信心。
最后，如果昂山素季是善良的，如果她自己不是种族主义者，那她也需要克服巨大的障碍。军方起草的宪法要求保障在议会中军方代表占25％的席位。这意味着，即使全国民主联盟以压倒性优势赢得最近的选举，在立法机关中还是有许多军方势力。
更重要的是，根据宪法，军方控制了国防部、边境事务部、和内政部，并拿走了大量的国家预算。边境事务部涵盖了在少数民族的家园的大规模开发和发展，而当地的各族人民都不希望如此。内政部包括警察和监狱的管理，而监狱里仍然有很多政治犯。内政部还包括从总务到乡镇一级的管理。
这意味着新议会的权力被严格地限制，它只是真正的国家政府的一小部分。而且，如果想做成任何事情，都得与敌对的、军事性运作的公务部分进行合作。
缅甸的内部平衡岌岌可危，并可能在任何时候粉碎。以维护国家安全的名义，宪法还允许军方发动政变，恢复绝对的控制权。士兵和警察也不用对他们犯下的任何虐待和罪行负责。
可以说，昂山素季和民盟被卡在人民与将军们之间。人们希望自由和权利。他们和他们的许多国会议员会为达到这个目标而努力。而将军们并不想有这样的结果。昂山素季试图取悦所有人。正如我在我的一篇文章中写的，问题会出在哪？
作为一个预测，我认为昂山素季不能阻止民心所向。军方将承受越来越大的压力。同时，少数民族的军队永远不会解除武装。我认为在未来五年内，将有如果不是50%则至少有25％的可能出现政变。
我想简要地谈谈中国在缅甸的利益缔结。从地缘政治上考虑，中国把缅甸作为一个自然资源丰富的来源和通往印度洋的另一条途径。中国企业已经在大型矿井、管道、堤坝等诸多业务中占有主要股份。
在政治上，北京一直试图取悦所有各方。除了支持缅甸的将军们，中国也支持一些最强大的少数民族军队。昂山素季甚至赞扬北京。
已经有报告称，昂山素季将与中国在和平问题上讨价还价。如果中国对少数民族的军队施压，使其签订全国范围内的停火协议，她将允许中国在缅甸的更多水坝建设和资源开采。
从我的角度来看，我不认为她能把少数民族的军队完全去除。少数民族的军队不会放弃自己的人民。
在任何情况下，即使牺牲包括商业方面的所有利益，中国也要得到一个压倒一切的核心利益。那就是中国不能允许其边境有一个新的、真正的民主。尽管有议会，缅甸必须保持在军事控制之下。
如果缅甸获得真正的民主，它不仅将鼓励中国人民对民主的渴望，也会给长期受到压迫的藏人和东土耳其斯坦的维吾尔人以希望。
正因为此，中国将永远不会停止支持缅甸的将军。他们清楚地知道，缅甸的将军们在愚弄西方。华盛顿和欧洲外交官们已经因为自己对缅甸资源的欲望而高兴地接受了这个骗局。
（魏京生基金会感谢施毅翻译这篇文章以及他对本基金会做出的其它贡献。）
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