Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A966-W619

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A966-W619

Release Date: October 15, 2016

发布日：2016年10月15日

Topic: From Lin Biao's Coup to the Current Dire Political and Economic Situation in China -- by Huang Ciping (Presentation at the Symposium on the Prospect of Democracy in China in New York)

标题：从林彪的政变到政治与经济险象丛生的今日中国(黄慈萍在纽约中国民主前景研讨会上的演讲)

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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From Lin Biao's Coup to the Current Dire Political and Economic Situation in China

(Presentation at the Symposium on the Prospect of Democracy in China in New York)

-- By Huang Ciping, Executive Director of the Wei Jingsheng Foundation

Monday, October 3, 2016

In 1971, China was confronted with a dire political and economic situation. 22 years after its violent seizure of power in China, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that worshiped blindly Marxism-Leninism put the country and its people in a crisis and chaos.

After the CCP seized power in 1949, it initiated one political movement after another, like a meat grinder. These initiations not only made the people panic, but also made the officials within the ruling Communist Party enter into intrigue and watchfulness of each other. They were angry with Mao Zedong, the top leader, yet did not dare to say it in words. This guidance of erroneous politics was accompanied by a complete failure of the CCP's economic policy. Ten years later, the so-called "three years of natural disasters" (i.e. the famines of the Great Leap Forward), starved tens of millions of Chinese. In fact, those disasters were entirely manmade. They were due to the policies of the CCP that lacked common sense, as well as being caused by the Communist officials who disregarded people's lives while engaging in their infighting. In 1966, in order to regain his real leadership, Mao Zedong launched the "unprecedented" Cultural Revolution. The Cultural Revolution not only dragged the Chinese people into the abyss further, but also caused an unprecedented destruction of Chinese culture and traditions as well. It made the Chinese people yearns even more for a just and democratic society.

Under these circumstances, the failed coup of Lin Biao that ended in his death while fleeing on September 13, 1971 has shocked the world. The exposure of the 571 project ("571" for the similar sound in Chinese to Wu Qi Yi for "armed uprising"), not only played a role of enlightenment for the Chinese to recognize Mao Zedong as a fascist feudal tyrant, but also laid the ideological foundation for reform and opening up China in the future. Although it failed, Lin Biao's coup did give a fatal blow to tyrant Mao Zedong who had always had his ways.

After Mao Zedong's death, Deng Xiaoping, the paramount leader of the Chinese Communist Party, appeared to embark on economic reforms that were responsive to the people's heart. Unfortunately, in fact, Deng continued the communist dictatorship and refused political reform. This continuation was displayed well in 1979 when Deng Xiaoping imprisoned Wei Jingsheng, who had called for democracy and expressed dissidence to Deng, and closed the Xidan Democracy Wall in Beijing, etc. Deng's "cross the river by feeling the stones" and "let some people get rich first" policy reflected the mentality of the Communist regime well -- they could do anything they liked to the nation and its people. 30 years after Deng's "reform and opening up" policy, China 's economic reform has come to an end: the disparity gap between rich and poor is growing, the majority of the people are still poor and destitute, and now even the middle class is facing more crises. Over the past few years, Xi Jinping's clique tried to eliminate their political opponents in the name of anti-corruption, which has led to the fall of a large number of government officials and military generals. Since he took power, Xi Jinping has not lifted the ban on a the free press and free association as Chiang Ching-kuo did (in Taiwan), but has carried out even more suppression of dissidents, detention of human rights lawyers and religious people, and so on.

China has once again reached a chaotic and crisis-ridden historical turning point. Its future direction will not only directly affect the well-being of the Chinese people, but also could jeopardize world peace.

More than one decade ago, I had a long article published by Handelsblatt, the largest business newspaper in Germany: " The Dark Side of China's Economic Development to the World - Economically, Security and Ecology" (http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2006/report2006-05/HuangCP060521HandelsblattOpEdA207-W102.htm). Although this article was focused more on the economic dimension, it expressed my then concern about the direction of China and its negative impact on the world, as well as the fears of the international community that was unaware of this knowledge. Now at ten years later, a series of issues I wrote about in that article have unfortunately become realities. We can prove them in the following.

In the beginning of the article, I pointed out that: "The economic reforms in China over the last two decades have heralded a new era of changes and development, stemming in no small part from the input of capital from the West. Low labor costs, few regulations and inexpensive natural resources were stimuli for the rapid growth, and increasing imbalance (belied by the persistently rosy macroeconomic data), of its manufacturing sector. Chinese-made products have flooded the international market, with severe consequences, both to China's economy and society, as well as to stable international development and diplomacy. Now is the time for economic and business circles of the West to recognize the dark side of China's economic development: that, continuing along its present course, there are profound risks and ramifications, not just for Chinese, but also for the planet."

I also pointed out: "What causes this sobering reality is that the rule of law has proven severely lacking in Chinese politics. In its place is a system in which corruption and bribes are ubiquitous, and the judiciary, in so far as it exists, is too heavily controlled by the Communist Party regime to be an object of recourse. The absence of rule of law has several negative consequences to investment in the Chinese economy. First is lowered efficiency. The corruption and bribes that plague the system mean that more foreign money lines the pockets of officials than is directed toward production."

I warned: "Trade disputes (over issues such as shipping lanes in the South China Sea and Middle Eastern oil) will likely grow as China's wealth and influence provide greater opportunity for audacity. Between democratic countries, these disputes would most likely be resolved in negotiation, but China's political system is based on the teachings of Mao Zedong: 'political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.' The Communist government established itself as the ruler in China by following these doctrines. "

I expressed my concern: "The CCP's need for external conflict can equally be stimulated by forces within the country. The ruling party is facing ever-increasing dissent from inside its borders, and confronts the growing need to reassert its legitimacy. Governments in this position have often resorted to military might to build nationalism and to redirect attention from flaws in their own economic and political systems. China's record on this policy question is not promising. It has started wars in Korea (to legitimize the Party shortly after it came to power), India (during the famines of the Great Leap Forward), Russia (during the unrest of the Cultural Revolution) and Vietnam (as Deng Xiaoping filled the power vacuum left by the deceased Chairman Mao). The lesson is clear: it does not take an outside threat to rouse China to war."

Finally, I reiterate: "It is important for all of us to realize and to remember that the current Chinese economy is irregular, anti-free-market, manipulated by authoritarian policies and presents an extremely high risk. Should major political, social or economic problems arise within China, it could completely collapse, ushering in a world economic crisis. The heavy investment in China by the Western world has resulted in heavy reliance on China. The rapid growth of China's economy and trade, as structured by the Communist Party, presents major concern for the fate of the world economy, and the specter of war imperils the security of humanity."

Unfortunately, what I described more than a decade ago is the current situation and crisis in China today. In the near term, it is particularly worrying that the collapse of China's economy will bring the full collapse of China, politically and socially.

Exactly under this circumstance, it is more needed for us, the Chinese democracy advocates, to be the mainstay for China, to adhere to the principle, to call for and promote the democracy and freedom in China, and to protect the peace and prosperity of the world. We need to pay with a minimum price to most effectively fight for democracy and freedom in China, and for world peace.

Not long ago, the Wei Jingsheng Foundation sponsored its first "The Way Out for China" seminar in the US capital city of Washington, DC. The main purpose of the seminar series is to analyze and judge the current situation in China, and to develop correct responses to promote the democratic revolution in China. The topic of our first "China's Way Out" seminar was "Lin Biao's Coup and Beyond." During the seminar, one speaker of the conference pointed out: The spirit of the complete rebellion with a military coup of Lin Biao and Lin Liguo will not die, and will be an unavoidable and essential subject for people to study; especially those rebels within the Communist system who want to overthrow the current Communist dictatorial regime.

Today, China's politics and economy has entered a dead end. Anger and grudges of the Chinese have caused an impending fire that will spread out as a prairie fire. Here, I would like to share some of our common views and my personal views on the current situation in China.

Generally speaking, kind-hearted people hope that China can take the peaceful evolution road of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Peace, rationality, and non-violence are the common aspirations and norms of people in a fair and peaceful society. However, for more than six decades of the Communist rule in China, when did the Communist regime ever adopt this peace, rationality and non-violence? Crying to the CCP dictatorship for peace, rationality and non-violence is undoubtedly seeking a fur from a tiger and going to hunt for tigers after getting killed by the tigers. Liu Xiaobo who claimed that he has "no enemies", is still in jail, and has had to accept what he described as "warm management." This is the result when you talk to and negotiate with the enemy about peace, rationality, and non-violence.

The opening page of the Three Kingdoms (in Chinese classical literature) talked about the 3 essential elements of "the right time, the right place and the right people." China has basically reached such a stage of "the right time, the right place and the right people." But the relative indifference and inability of the international community results that China's transition will mainly decided by its changes within. The path of a peaceful evolution in China has been completely blocked by Xi Jinping's Group. A revolution and even uprising has become the inevitable start of a political transition in China. In this case, I agree with Mr. Wei Jingsheng that a coup by those who have lofty ideals, and even a military coup is the least costly political transformation possible, like what had happened during the Xinhai Revolution 105 years ago.

As Mr. Wei Jingsheng mentioned: Now as the Commission for Discipline Inspection of the CCP is investigating several hundreds of officials and generals in the military who rose up through the ranks due to Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong (both were arrested and Xu already dead), why do they want to wait for arrest instead of taking up a coup of revolt? In particular, for an important general like Fan Changlong who holds real power yet is standing right at the edge of the cliff, what is their purpose of waiting? Are they waiting for the release of Guo Boxiong and Ling Jihua? Or waiting until the CCP becomes democratic at its 19th Congress, to elect that ruler out of his post?

When this situation arises, we the Chinese democrats need to follow up in a timely manner. We need to guide the people in a rational, favorable and strategically sound manner. Together with all the Chinese people, we will create a new political system of democracy, freedom, human rights, the rule of law and justice, as well as a truly free market economy in China. Thus we will see China contribute to world peace and prosperity rather brings a disaster.

I would like to discuss with all of you and act together to achieve our goals together. Thank you!

Original video from the Boxun News:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyYz_LgvBkY&feature=youtu.be

Huang Ciping's photo:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/HuangCP150704-3.jpg

Related Photo of the conference:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2016/newsletters2016-4/NYsymposium1-c-5.jpg

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2016/newsletters2016-4/NYsymposium2-c-5.jpg

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A966-W619

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A966-W619

Release Date: October 15, 2016

发布日：2016年10月15日

Topic: From Lin Biao's Coup to the Current Dire Political and Economic Situation in China -- by Huang Ciping (Presentation at the Symposium on the Prospect of Democracy in China in New York)

标题：从林彪的政变到政治与经济险象丛生的今日中--黄慈萍在纽约中国民主前景研讨会上的演讲

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2016/report2016-10/HuangCPspeech161015NYsymposiumA966-W619.htm

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从林彪的政变到政治与经济险象丛生的今日中国

(在纽约中国民主前景研讨会上的演讲)

-- 黄慈萍（魏京生基金会主任）

2016年10月3日星期一

1971年的中国，正面临着政治与经济险象丛生的境地。在暴力夺取政权22年后，盲目信奉马列主义的中共危机四伏，人心混乱。

在1949年夺取政权后，中共的绞肉机一样的一场又一场的政治运动，不仅仅搞得老百姓人心惶惶，也使得中共统治集团内部的官员们尔虞我诈，互相防范，对最高领导人毛泽东敢怒而不敢言。在错误政治的指导下，伴随的是中共经济政策的完全失败。10年之后，所谓的“三年自然灾害”，饿死了几千万老百姓，其实却完全是人为的，是中共违反常理的政策及其官员不顾老百姓的死活也要搞内斗的倒行逆施行所造成的。1966年，为了夺回他真正的领导权，毛泽东掀起了“史无前例的”文化大革命，将中国人民拖入更进一步的深渊，并造成对中国文化及传统的史无前例的彻底破坏。这使得中国人民更加向往一个公正与民主的社会。

在这种情况下，1971年爆发了举世震惊的9.13林彪驾机叛逃为结局的失败政变。之后所曝光的571工程纪要不仅仅为中国大众日后认识毛泽东的法西斯暴君起到了对全民族的启蒙作用，而且为日后的改革开放打下了思想基础。虽然失败了，林彪的政变还是给了一意孤行的毛泽东以致命的打击。

遗憾的是，在毛泽东逝世后，成为中共最高领导人的邓小平表面上开始了顺应人心的经济改革，实际上却继续共产独裁，拒绝政治改革。1979年，邓小平将表示异议、呼吁民主的魏京生关押起来并关闭了西单民主墙等行为就是例证。他的“摸着石头过河”和“让一部分人先富起来”的政策所表达的正是中共对国家、对人民为所欲为的态度。“改革开放”三十多年以来，中国的经济改革已走到了尽头：贫富差距越来越大，大多数的下层老百姓依然是民不聊生，如今连中产阶级也面对着更多的危机。这几年来，习近平集团以反腐之名，行消除政治对手之实，导致一大批的政府官员及军队上层将领“落马”；习近平不但没有象蒋经国那样开放党禁报禁，还不断收紧言论，打压异议人士，关押维权律师及宗教人士，等等。

中国又再一次到达了危机四伏，人心混乱的历史转折点。其今后的走向，不仅仅会直接关系到中国人民的福祉，也将影响到世界的和平。

十年前，我在德国最大的商报Handelsblatt发表了一篇题为《中国经济的黑暗面，及其对国际安全与世界生态的影响》的长文（http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2006/report2006-05/HuangCP060521HandelsblattOpEdA207-W102.htm）。文章表达了我对中国的走向及其对世界的负面影响的认识和对国际社会漫然不知的担忧，尽管这篇文章比较注重的是经济层面。十年后，我所谈到的一系列问题已经成了不幸而言中的事实。我们可以检验如下。

在文章开端，我就指出了“中国近年来的经济改革已经进入了变化和发展的新阶段，其中很大的一个原因是由于西方的投资。廉价劳力，不健全的规章制度，廉价的自然资源都促进了这个迅速增长，同时也增加了制造业发展的不平衡。这些是从持续很久了的表面上很漂亮的宏观经济学的数据所能看到的信息。然而，中国制造的产品大量涌入国际市场，不仅仅给中国经济和社会带来了一系列严重后果，而且还给稳定的国际发展和外交政策带来严重影响。现在是西方经济界和商界认识到中国经济发展的黑暗面的时候了：也就是说，沿着这条路走下去，将把中国人民和全球都带入一个极其危险的境地。”

我还指出了：“严重现实是中国的政治体制缺乏法治。整个社会腐败和贿赂业已成风，而目前存在的法律系统，完全被共产党独裁政权一手控制，成为御用工具。缺少法制和规章制度，给对中国经济的投资带来了负面后果。首先它降低了工作效率。由于腐化和贿赂腐蚀了社会，更多的外币流向的是政府官员的腰包，而不是直接用于生产。"

我警告了：“贸易来往方面的争端，比如中国南海的运输线和中东石油的运输线之争，将会随着中国财富和影响力的增长而使中国更加胆敢予以挑战。民主国家之间的争端通常通过协商来解决，而中国的政治系统则基于毛泽东的策略：枪杆子里面出政权。共产党因为遵循这条原则成为了中国的统治者。”

我担心：“中国的对外冲突亦可能因内部冲突而发生。面临日益增长的境内的异议力量，统治政党要进一步设法确认其合法地位。通常在这个位置上的政府会动用武力，煽动民族主义，将人们的注意力从本国的政治经济问题方面转移开来。中国在这方面的记录已经有所佐证。它在夺取政权不久就为了巩固政权而发动朝鲜战争，而在"大跃进"之后出现了大饥荒后立即向印度开火，然后是文革高潮期挑起中苏边境之争，而邓小平在毛泽东去世后上台不久，就发动了中越战争。教训很清楚：中国走向战争不需要外部的威胁。”

最后我重申：“我们必须认识并且记住，今天中国的经济增长是不正常的、违反自由市场规律的、是被政治极权者所控制的，因而危险极大。倘若中国内部发生重大政治、社会或经济动乱，中国经济就可能迅速崩溃，给世界经济带来冲击。西方国家在中国大量投资意味着他们将大量地依赖于中国。在中共领导下的中国经济和贸易的快速增长，给世界经济带来的前景是忧人的，而战争的鬼影则更严重地危及了人类的安全。”

很遗憾，我十年多前的描述，正是今日中国的现况与危机。近期尤其值得担忧的是中国经济的崩盘将带来其政治和社会的全面崩溃。

也在是在如今这种情况下，更需要我们中国的民主派中流砥柱，坚持原则，来呼吁和推动中国的民主自由事业，保护世界的繁荣昌盛。以最小的代价最有效地争取中国的民主、自由与世界和平。

不久前，由魏京生基金会策划主办的《中国的出路》系列研讨会的首期研讨会在美国首都华盛顿举行。研讨会系列的主旨就是针对当下中国时局进行分析研判，开出正确的应对之策，推动中国民主革命变局。而我们"中国的出路"系列研讨会第一期讲座的题目就是“从林彪的政变说起。”其中就有会议发言指出：林彪和林立果彻底造反武装政变的精神不朽，是后人尤其是制内反叛者在推翻当下中共专制政权必须研究和不可迴避的课题。

当今中国的政治与经济，已经走入了死胡同。天怒人怨，已造成即将发生的星星之火，必然燎原。以下我就当今千钧一发的中国局势谈一些我们的共识和我个人的看法。

一般而言，善良的人们都希望中国能走苏联与东欧那样的和平演变的道路。和平、理性、非暴力，是公平与和平的社会里人们共同的愿望与准则。然而，中共执政的六十多年以来，什么时候采用过和平、理性、非暴力？对中共独裁叫嚷和平、理性、非暴力，无疑是与虎谋皮，为虎作伥。有些人推崇刘晓波所声称的他“没有敌人”，但他却至今还被关在监狱里，接受他所描述的“温馨管理”。这就是对敌人讲和平、理性、非暴力的结果。

三国演义的开篇就谈到“天时、地利与人和”三要素。中国目前基本上已到了这样的地步。但国际社会的相对漠然与无力，使得中国的转型主要靠其内部的变化来决定。而中国和平演变的道路已经完全被习近平集团所堵死，革命乃至起义成了中国政治转型的必然开始。在这种情况下，我同意魏京生先生的看法，如同105年前的“辛亥革命”，有志之士的宫廷政变及军事政变是代价最低的政治转型可能。

如同魏京生先生提到的：现在被中纪委调查的徐才厚，郭伯雄所提拔的几百名将军，与其束手等侍被抓，不如揭竿政变造反，尤其是范长龙这类站在悬崖边上的掌实权的重要将官，此时不反更待何时？难道还要等令计划，郭伯雄出狱再干？还是等到19大上民主选掉独裁当政者？

在这种局面出现时和出现后，我们民主人士更需要及时跟进，有理、有利、有节地引导民众，与全中国人民一起，创造出一个有民主、自由、人权、法治和公正的新政治体制和一个真正的自由市场经济。让中国对世界和平和繁荣作出贡献而不是带来灾难。

我愿与大家一起讨论并采取行动，共同达到我们的目的。谢谢！

博讯的相关录像：

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyYz_LgvBkY&feature=youtu.be

黄慈萍的照片：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/HuangCP150704-3.jpg