Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A965-W618

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A965-W618

Release Date: October 9, 2016

发布日：2016年10月9日

Topic: About 9/13 Incident 45 Years Ago -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：913事件45周年 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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About 9/13 Incident 45 Years Ago

-- Wei Jingsheng

Forty-five years ago, on September 13, a Chinese Air Force plane crashed in Mongolia's Undur Khan (Ondorhaan). This aroused the curiosity of the world, and also shocked the faith of all the Chinese people. So far, people have not known all the truth about it, thus it attracts continued speculation by the academics and the media. This has become a major unusual event in modern history and is still an important subject we talk about.

In recent years, many Chinese who are interested have made many in-depth investigations of this incident, along with a variety of defenses and memories by members of many families and related parties. The overseas Chinese democracy movement held a seminar not long ago and also discussed the causes and consequences of the Lin Biao incident as well as the lessons learned. This discussion gives us a little more knowledge and observation points, and is worth being provided to everyone.

After reviewing the recent recollections and investigations, and excluding a variety of false reports and misunderstandings due to variety of reasons including self-defense, a relatively consistent view is: Beginning in 1967, that is the second year after the start of the Cultural Revolution, Lin Biao and Chen Boda had disagreements with (the then paramount leader) Mao Zedong, that then developed into a dispute over the political course for China.

Before that, Lin Biao and Chen Boda helped Mao Zedong strike at "those people in power within the Communist Party who took a Capitalist road" because they believed that Soviet-style socialism was superior. However, the chaos caused by the Cultural Revolution was obviously not conducive to social stability and the development of production in China. The main reason that the chaos could not be stopped was because of the continued aimless fights under the slogan of "deepening the class struggle". Therefore, Lin and Chen called for weakening the class struggle and strengthening economic development. This resulted a sharp contradiction with Mao Zedong and others who wanted to continue their political course of striking the bureaucratic class with the "class struggle" as the key to creating a new economic model. This disagreement was the main culprit for the later Criticize Lin, Criticize Confucius campaign, and is also the source of the "the theory of only for productivity" and "the extinguishments of the class struggle" (that Mao Zedong was criticizing).

Two years later, after the Mao Zedong clique gained their time by taking advantage of stalling tactics and subdued most of their political opponents, they began the struggle against the Lin/Chen clique. At the Ninth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, by using his own deified position, Mao Zedong launched an attack on the Lin/Chen clique, in a way that was almost vexatious, by not setting a state president for China. Mao first attacked Chen Boda (who wrote what they advocated), to suppress the clique of "the theory of only for productivity" through public opinion.

As his own collaborators were attacked and his own men were weakened, Lin Biao did not react in the way he should have. He made the same mistake as Liu Shaoqi did, by thinking to give up minor for major things, and to view the effect later on. He thought that Mao Zedong could not abandon him after all because the military power was in his hands. What he did not realize was that Mao Zedong enjoyed the struggle as an entertainment, include to strike his own friends. This change is a psychological metamorphosis produced after a person becomes a dictator.

Now there are some relatives of the victims who have come forward to argue that the Lin Biao group did not prepare a coup. We need to be vigilant to the rhetoric of these stakeholders. For example, before Mao Zedong's death, members of the Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping clique, including their relatives, did not admit that they took "the capitalist political course" and cried hard to insist that they did not oppose "Chairman Mao's revolutionary political course". However, the facts later prove that they really did oppose Mao Zedong's new socialist course and indeed took a capitalist course.

The 571 Project ("571" for the similar sound in Chinese to Wu Qi Yi for "armed uprising") was considered by many people to be the prelude to Deng Xiaoping's reform. In fact, according to my own personal experience, the far-reaching of the anti-Mao Zedong and a smaller scaled democratic movement of the Joint Action Committee of the Red Guards from Capital's Middle Schools which has profound influence during the Cultural Revolution, also had influence from the internal Communist leadership and was directly associated with the split of the political courses between Mao Zedong/Zhou Enlai clique and Lin Biao/Chen Boda clique. Also, in my own personal experience, Lin Biao did have the suspicion of preparing a coup at the end of 1969 by mobilizing the army. This is also the reason that Mao Zedong rounded up and put Lin Biao's senior officers under house arrest after Lin Biao's airplane crashed (in Mongolia).

Nevertheless, the Mao/Zhou clique was more skillful. They resolved the plot of Lin Biao and gradually forced him into a dead end. However, after all, since Lin biao had managed the military for many years, Mao Zedong was not sure of the final showdown with Lin Biao. That famous southern tour of Mao Zedong before the end was Mao mobilizing and checking the situation before the battle. He was preparing to take action after evaluating the strength of both sides, rather than, as described by some outsider scholars, to anger Lin Biao. When a Master plays chess, he would realize the other's intention long before instead of needing to instigate anger.

In fact Lin Biao was not in hesitation either. He was executing the plan to assassinate Mao Zedong by his son. He may also have estimated that his young son would treat it as a childlike plan and unable to achieve it, so the wily strategist Lin Biao indeed prepared for a backup plan. After (the failed assassination plans when) Mao Zedong returned to his own military protection circle, Lin Biao was preparing to flee to Guangzhou in the south for a military struggle. If that move was successful, the change of history in China would be advanced by one decade. The suffering of the Chinese people would also be one decade less. This is a reason that a lot of people still cherish Lin Biao even nowadays.

As many wise men have said, details determine the outcome. The airplane pilot that was in the control of Zhou Enlai's secret service, turned the aircraft quietly to the north and ended in advance this struggle which would have been evenly matched. The disaster for the Chinese people would continue for ten more years.

From the view of many people at the time, the majority of Chinese supported the 571 coup program, so the hope of success was greater than the possibility of failure. Since ancient times, the ones who got the hearts of the people got the world. The vital interests of the people are always higher than all the ideals. If not because of Zhou Enlai and his system of secret service, Chinese history would be rewritten. If not because of negligence of the details, Napoleon and Lin Biao, both military geniuses, would not be defeated.

Although Lin Biao's military coup failed, he made a fatal blow to the madness and fantasy of Mao Zedong. It resulted in a decisive influence on Mao's thinking and policy afterwards. It made him give up the strategy of fighting for hegemony with the United States and the Soviet Union, and eased the Sino-US and Sino-Russian relations. Mao also used Deng Xiaoping to implement the economic measures of Lin Biao and Chen Boda, etc., to at least ease the contradictions at home and abroad, and stop the trend of a rapid collapse. This laid the foundation for the reform of the capitalist road of China in the 1980s, and at the same time gave birth to the Chinese people's movement desiring democracy, freedom, and anti-centralized autocracy.

Now China has come to a critical crossroads again, the conditions are ripe to produce Lin Biao-style characters. We have to see how is the luck of the Chinese people this time.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2016/WeiJS160925onLinBcoup.mp3

(Written and recorded on September 25, 2016. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A965-W618

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A965-W618

Release Date: October 9, 2016

发布日：2016年10月9日

Topic: About 9/13 Incident 45 Years Ago -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：913事件45周年 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2016/report2016-10/WeiJS161009onLinBcoupA965-W618.htm

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913事件45周年

-- 魏京生

四十五年前的9月13号，一架中国空军的飞机坠毁在了蒙古的温都尔汗。这一时激起全世界的好奇心，也震动了全中国人民的信仰。至今人们也没有解开真实的面貌，引得学术界和媒体议论猜测不断。这成为近代史上的一大奇案，至今仍是大家谈论的重要话题。

近年来中国的很多好事者们对此事件作了许多深度的调查，许多家属和当事人也有各种申辩和回忆。海外民运在不久前召开了一次座谈会，也就林彪事件的前因后果以及经验教训进行了研讨。这给我们大家增加了一些知识和观察角度，值得提供给大家。

把近年来的回忆和调查进行一番筛选，排除各种为了自我辩解等原因而做的假证或者误解之后，比较一致的看法是：从1967年开始，也就是文化大革命的第二年开始，林彪、陈伯达就已经和毛泽东产生了意见分歧，进而发展成路线之争。

在这之前，林彪、陈伯达帮助毛泽东打击了党内走资本主义道路的当权派，是因为他们坚信苏联式的社会主义更优越。而文革造成的混乱显然不利于社会的稳定与生产的发展。在深化阶级斗争的口号下继续乱斗，是混乱不能停止的主要原因。因此他们要求弱化阶级斗争，强化发展经济。这就和毛泽东等人的继续以阶级斗争为纲打击官僚阶级，创造新经济模式的路线，产生了尖锐的矛盾。这就是后来批林批孔的主要罪名，是唯生产力论和阶级斗争熄灭论的来源。

两年后，在毛泽东集团利用缓兵之计争取时间，制服了大部分政治对手之后，开始了对林陈集团的斗争。在中共第九次代表大会上，以近乎无理取闹的不设国家主席的方式，利用毛自身被神化的地位，发动了对林陈集团的攻击。首先攻击了的是笔杆子陈伯达，从舆论上压制了唯生产力派。

林彪在自己的合作者被攻击的情况下，在自己的部下也被削弱权力的情况下，没有作出应有的反应。他犯了和刘少奇一样的错误，以为可以丢卒保车，以观后效；以为老毛无法抛弃自己，毕竟军权在握。没想到毛泽东以斗争为乐，而且以斗争自己的朋友为乐。这是当上独裁者之后的人会产生的心理变态。

现在有些被害人的亲属出面辩解，说林彪集团并没有准备一场政变。这种利害相关人的说辞我们需要保持警惕。例如刘邓集团的人们，包括亲属，在毛泽东去世之前也不承认他们走了资本主义路线，哭着喊着说他们并没有反对毛主席的革命路线。再往后的事实证明他们确实反对了毛泽东的新型社会主义路线，也确实在走一条资本主义的路线。

林彪的571政变纲领，被很多有识之士认为是邓小平改革路线的前奏。其实以我个人的经历来看，文革中影响深远的联动反毛小民主运动，也有中共内部的影响，和毛周与林陈67年的路线分歧有着直接的关系。也以我个人经历来看，林彪确实在1969年底有调动军队作政变准备的嫌疑。这也是林彪坠机之后，毛泽东把所有林彪部下的高级军官集中到北京软禁起来的原因。

不过毛周集团技高一筹，化解了林彪的阴谋，并逐步将林彪逼进了死胡同。但是林彪毕竟在军队系统经营多年，毛泽东对和林彪摊牌并没有把握。在最后关头之前毛泽东那次著名的南巡，就是在作战前动员和摸底，估算一下双方的实力然后才敢动手；而并不是某些外行学者描述的那样，是在激怒林彪。高手下棋，早就看清了对方的意图，不需要什么激怒。

实际上林彪也并不是在犹豫，而是由他的儿子执行着刺杀毛泽东的计划。他可能也估计到他年轻的儿子如儿戏一样的计划可能会失手，所以老谋深算的战略家林彪也确实准备了后手。在毛泽东已经返回自己的军队保护圈之后，林彪有南下广州做军事斗争的准备。如果此举成功，中国历史的变局就会提前十年。老百姓也会少受十年的折磨，这是至今很多人仍然怀念林彪的一个原因。

正如许多智者们所说的那样，细节决定着胜负。被周恩来的特务系统所控制的专机组，把飞机悄悄地转向了北方，决定了本来势均力敌的这场斗争提前结束了，中国人民的灾难还要再延续十年。

从当时很多人的切身观察来看，支持571政变纲领的老百姓占大多数，政变成功的希望大于失败的可能。自古以来，得民心者得天下，人民的切身利益总是高于所有的主义和理想。如果不是周恩来和他的特务系统，中国的历史一定会改写。如果不是疏忽了细节，拿破仑和林彪这两个军事天才也不会败得如此冤枉。

虽然林彪的军事政变失败了，但他对毛泽东的疯狂和幻想构成了致命的打击，对毛泽东在这之后的思路和政策走向造成了决定性的影响。这使得他放弃和美国、苏联争夺霸权的战略，缓和了中美、中俄之间的关系。毛启用邓小平来实行林彪、陈伯达的经济路线等等举措，至少缓和了国内外的矛盾，停止了迅速走向崩溃的趋势。这给八十年代中国走资本主义道路的改革打下了基础，同时催生了中国人民向往民主自由的、反集权专制的运动。

现在中国又走到了一个关键的十字路口，产生林彪式人物的条件已经成熟。就看中国人民的运气怎么样了。