Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A967-W620

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A967-W620

Release Date: October 16, 2016

发布日：2016年10月16日

Topic: The Coup of Hua Guofeng and Beyond -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：从华国锋的政变说起 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The Coup of Hua Guofeng and Beyond

-- Wei Jingsheng

Hua Guofeng (who was Mao Zedong's designated successor in 1976 at Mao's death as the paramount leader and Premier of China, as well as the Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party) was a very interesting person. His behavior had always been like a very well behaved man: before his coup that arrested the Gang of Four, he gave people the impression that he was a too well behaved person to the degree that the others worried for him; after the arrests of Gang of four, he still seemed to be too well behaved, to the degree that the others got anxious for him. Yet indeed this once, he took a blockbuster action, or in a popular modern idiom "eye-popping".

So some scholars have doubts: in the end what was his character? In my opinion, he was indeed an honest and well behaved man without a lot of conspiratorial calculations as to how to outmaneuver other people. Those people who were quite good at conspiracy and calculation, such as Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and Liu Shaoqi, were able to get to high positions with a lot of power by their conspiracy and calculated outmaneuvering. But Hua Guofeng obviously was not such a person. If it was in a different environment, he may never have made a blockbuster action.

Some people are not like that way. On the surface, they may look pretty good at calculation, to the degree that their edges and smarts were well exposed. Yet to the end they just had some smaller scale smarts, and would be outmaneuvered by their opponents. As what was said in the Dream of Red Mansions (a classic of Chinese literature): one lost one's life when he was too smart and good at calculating the others. In modern Chinese history, we have Liu Shaoqi and Bo Xilai who lost life and freedom to Mao Zedong and Wen Jiabao, who were even better at the conspiracies and calculations.

The situation involving Hua Guofeng was quite interesting. First, he got the upper hand in his quick dealing of those who wanted to outmaneuver him, but then he was outmaneuvered by the other people who he was going to outmaneuver. So it looks like he was not a well calculating person. His fast action in "taking a sharp knife to cut gossamer" style was forced due to frustration.

The situation at that time (1976) was: Although Mao Zedong had come to the end of his life and lost some of his wits, he still had not forgotten to clear the way for his wife (Jiang Qing) to get the power in the future. So Mao got rid of Zhou Enlai, Zhu De, and their cronies, who would be the rivals to Jiang Qing, and put Hua Guofeng, who looked well behaved, into a leadership position for a transitional purpose. It would be a matter of course for Jiang Qing to take over power later on.

This time, there were some unusual contributive historical accidents. Mao Zedong's son, who had fewer character defects, was killed much earlier (by the US bombs during the Korea War). Otherwise, it might be as some of our friends evaluated that China would become a real Communist dynasty like the 3 generations of the Kim family in North Korea. Without the succession of his son, Mao had no choice but to let his wife inherit this leadership. For one who went to all the trouble to build this communist dynasty, he would not "let the fertilizer flow into the others' field": We must continuously hold this power if we seized the power. Till now this is still the theory that the Communist leaders in China have.

Another historical accident was due to the great character defects the intended successor Jiang Qing had. She lacked the ability to establish friendly relations with others, but rather offended people often without knowing herself. To use a modern expression, she had a very low EQ. Her peripheral relationships with the others were even less than those of the silly Prime Minister Li Peng, thus creating favorable conditions for a coup in the Emperor's court.

In addition to the above two historical accidents, there was the most important environment, a historical necessity. That was that people of the whole nation were extremely unhappy of the poor results of the Communist revolution, to the degree that was enough to have another revolution. The April 5 Tiananmen Movement before Mao Zedong's death was the best proof that this degree had been reached. Who would take the responsibility for Mao's crimes? No one wanted to be the scapegoat, except the Jiang Qing clique that was silly enough to think that the prestige of Mao Zedong was their best historical heritage.

Although the remaining prestige of Mao was still strong, the dissatisfaction and kinetic energy of resistance had also been accumulating and becoming more robust. Jiang Qing's clique thought that they were able to control the situation by relying on Mao's remaining prestige. The premise of their confidence was that the people's rebellion did not have an accountable leader. Hua Guofeng looked so well behaved to the degree that he could not act as a leader of resistance. So the Gang of Four treated Hua Guofeng and some other important individuals as their followers, without proper status. It was true later on when Mao Zedong's cronies (leader of the guards) Wang Dongxing and (Marshall) Ye Jianying played the main roles in the coup.

Most of the successful coups were not based on the traditional elite groups anymore. Their main strength relied on the discontent and pressure of the whole society, as described by the old Chinese saying that those who got the hearts of the people shall get the world. If one wants to get the hearts of the people, then one should follow the hearts of the people. Therefore, the Hua Guofeng group had correctly re-proposed the program of Lin Biao's group: to develop productive forces and to improve people's living standards. That program had followed people's hearts so well to a degree that was now forgotten by the people.

Hua Guofeng successfully completed his court coup, and established a new ruling group. But why did he soon suffer a serious failure and lose the power in his hands? Some people say he was too stupid, that he should not have let Deng Xiaoping came to power. The fact is, to analyze with political theory, that he should not have followed the traditional politics of using the political elites to run the country. Within the traditional elite group, there are a lot of people who are qualified to compete for leadership status, which was the political foundation of the instability of his power.

More important than a good calculation of the struggle for power, Hua Guofeng did not really satisfy the hope of the people. Under his slogan of "to develop productive forces," he did not put forward to change the irrational political and economic system in China. The political system of the Communist one-party dictatorship and the non-market-oriented economic system have long been criticized, even opposed by the Chinese people. Reforming the system was the conclusion and hope of the people for a long time. The lack of political vision and lack of further compliance from the people become a favorable condition for other elite groups which could and should replace Hua's leadership.

Not everyone has the quality of leadership. Hua Guofeng was a typical example. The coup he launched was for self-survival, which was coincidently a success. But he did not understand that the needs of the times was not only the dissatisfaction of people with the Gang of four, not just the slogan of "to develop productive forces", but the change of the irrational political and economic system which was in need of reform. The time needed a reform in leadership, not a successor to the emperor.

In this lack of understanding, Hua Guofeng committed a decisive error and was lacking the requirements of a leader of the times. So immediately he was replaced by a leader who knew the requirement of the times. Although Deng Xiaoping's beautiful slogan was never fully fulfilled, it did overwhelm the conservative image of Chairman Hua Guofeng. Deng Xiaoping successfully replaced the well behaved person Hua Guofeng, and let him really become a transitional character.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2016/WeiJS161001onHuaGFcoup.mp3

(Written on September 30, 2016 and recorded on October 1, 2016. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A967-W620

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A967-W620

Release Date: October 16, 2016

发布日：2016年10月16日

Topic: The Coup of Hua Guofeng and Beyond -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：从华国锋的政变说起 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2016/report2016-10/WeiJS161016HuaGFcoupA967-W620.htm

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从华国锋的政变说起

-- 魏京生

华国锋是个很有意思的人物。他的一贯表现很像一个老实人：政变抓捕四人帮之前，给人的印象是个太老实的人，老实到别人替他着急；抓捕四人帮之后的表现仍然还是太老实，老实到让人替他着急。可他又确实来过那么一回一鸣惊人，用现代语言形容就是让人大跌眼镜。

所以有学者就疑惑了：他到底是个什么性格呢？依我看，他确实是个老实人，不是个阴谋鬼计一大堆，专门算计人的人。像毛泽东、邓小平、刘少奇这些人都是挺能算计的人，专门靠算计别人最后登上了高位。华国锋明显不是这样的人。如果换一个环境，他可能永远也不会作出一鸣惊人的事情。

有些人就不是这样。看上去还挺能算计的，锋芒外露聪明得不行。结果都是些小聪明，遇上对手就叫别人给算计了。就像红楼梦里说的那样：机关算尽太聪明，反误了卿卿性命。现代史里的刘少奇和薄熙来就是这种人，遇上了毛泽东和温家宝这些更会算计的人，就反误了卿卿性命。

而华国锋却很有点儿意思。先是快刀斩乱麻把那些准备算计他的人给算计了，之后不久又被那些他不准备算计的人给算计了。所以看起来他不是个会算计的人，他的快刀斩乱麻，实在是迫不得已，事出无奈。

当时的形势是：毛泽东虽然老年痴呆行将就木，但还不忘替他的夫人将来掌权扫清道路。他把将来能够成为江青劲敌的周恩来、朱德及其亲信除掉，把认为很老实的华国锋推到过渡性人物的位置上。之后江青接掌大权，就可以顺理成章了。

这时候历史出现了一些不常见的偶然。性格较少缺陷的毛泽东的大儿子很早就死了。否则还真会像有些朋友估计的那样，像朝鲜金家三个胖子那样父继子承，搞出真正的共产主义皇朝。没有了儿子继承，就只好老婆继承。总之辛苦建立的共产主义皇朝不能肥水流进了外人田，我们打下的天下就得我们来坐。至今他们还是这个理论。

另一个历史的偶然，就是接班人江青的巨大性格缺陷。她缺乏与别人建立友好关系的能力，反倒是随时随地得罪人还不自知，用现代语言形容就是情商太低。她的周边人事关系还不如傻呵呵的总理李鹏，这就给宫廷政变创造了良好的条件。

除了上边的两个历史的偶然，还有一个最重要的环境，一个历史的必然。这就是全国人民对共产主义穷革命已经非常不满，已经达到了另一场革命所需要的程度。毛泽东死前的四五天安门运动，就是已达到这种形势的最好证明。谁来为毛泽东的罪行承担责任呢？大家都不想当这个替罪羊，只有江青集团傻乎乎地以为毛泽东的余威是他们最好的历史遗产。

毛泽东的余威固然仍很强劲，人民不满和反抗的动能也已经积蓄得更强劲。江青集团还以为依靠毛泽东的余威能够掌控局面。他们信心的前提，就是人民的反抗没有上得了台面的领袖。华国锋这么老实，看上去没有充当反抗领袖的可能。所以他们对待华国锋和其他一些重要角色，就像对待跟班的一样，没给人家应有的地位。后来果然如此，毛泽东的亲信汪东兴和叶剑英反倒成了政变的主要角色。

大多数成功的政变，所依靠的不再是传统的精英集团。其主要依靠力量是全社会的不满情绪和压力，也就是古语说的得民心者得天下。要想得民心，就得顺民心。所以华国锋集团很正确地重新提出了林彪集团的纲领：发展生产力，提高人民的生活水平。因为太顺民心了，所以反倒没引起人们的注意，至今被人们所遗忘。

华国锋很成功地完成了宫廷政变，建立起新的统治集团。但为什么很快就遭遇了严重的失败，丢掉了手中的权力呢？有人说他太傻，不应该让邓小平上台。其实用政治理论来分析，就是他不应该仍然沿用传统政治精英治国。在传统精英集团里，有资格争夺领袖地位的人很多，这是他权力不稳的政治基础。

比争权夺利的算计更重要的一条，是他没有真正满足人民的希望。他没有在发展生产力的口号下，提出改变不合理的政治经济制度。共产党的一党专政政治和非市场化的经济体制，长期受到人们诟病甚至反对。改革制度是人们长期以来的结论和希望。缺乏政治眼光，没有进一步顺应民心，是其它精英集团可以也应该取而代之的有利条件。

不是所有人都有领袖的素质，华国锋就是个典型。他为了自救而发动的政变，恰逢其时成功了。但他不了解时代的需要不仅仅是人民不满四人帮，也不仅仅是发展生产的口号，而是改变不合理的政治经济体制，是改革。时代需要改革的领袖，而不是接班继承的皇帝。

在这一点上，华国锋犯了决定性的错误，不具备时代对领袖的要求。所以马上他就被懂得时代要求的领袖人物所替代。尽管邓小平的漂亮口号最终没有完全兑现，但在当时确实压倒了华主席的保守形象。邓小平顺利地取代了老实人华国锋，让老实人真正成了过渡性的人物。