Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A973-W625

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A973-W625

Release Date: November 27, 2016

发布日：2016年11月27日

Topic: Wei Jingsheng 's Analysis of the Political Situation of the Chinese Communist Regime (Voice of America "Issues and Opinions" Program)

标题：魏京生剖析中共政局(美国之音“时事大家谈”节目)

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Editor's note: the following is the VOA introduction of its "Issues and Opinions" talk show on November 23, 2016, featuring its invited guest: Wei Jingsheng.

Voice of America "Issues and Opinions" Program: Wei Jingsheng 's Analysis of the Political Situation of the Chinese Communist Regime

Last updated: 2016.11.23 23:57

-- Hosted by Bao Shen of VOA

Washington -

On Monday, the website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection published an article which stated that serious violations of the law, which included the cases of Zhou Yongkang, Bo Xilai, Guo Boxiong, Xu Caihou, etc. are a warning to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that "the country is not at peace", and thus the Communist Party should not relax political vigilance even for a moment. The article also said that the first security issue for the Communist Party and national security is political security, while the most important aspect of the political security is the "security of ruling" for the Communist regime. In 2016, the CCP convened the Sixth Plenary Session of its Eighteenth Congress, which established Xi Jinping as "the core leader." Before and after the convening of that plenary session, Xi Jinping used people who once worked for him and those he trusted to replace many leaders including the leaders in the Beijing municipal government and many of the highest leaders of the municipalities of provincial and autonomous regions. Xi also used his own confidants to control the armed forces, armed police and public security departments. As the CCP preparations for its Nineteenth Congress are in full swing, what is the intention for the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection to warn that "the country is not at peace"? What is the current state of power struggles and factional struggles at the highest level of the Chinese Communist Party? Could Xi Jinping establish his own set of people and to enhance his core position during the CCP's 19th Congress next year? And once he got his wish, where will Xi Jinping lead China?

The hosts asked: Since the Communist regime has sentenced both Ling Jihua and Guo Boxiong to life imprisonment in July this year, and sentenced Zhou Yongkang to life imprisonment in June 2015 and Bo Xilai to life imprisonment in July 2013, while Xu Caihou had already died in July 2013, why did the article by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection state that "the country is not at peace"? Where does the danger come from? Wei Jingsheng expressed that Xi Jinping's administration faces attacks from two sides. On one side, the party officials who were warned are disgruntled; on the other side, there is a stronger civil revolt that the CCP has never met, which includes the execution of Jia Jinglong and the protest of the Chinese veterans at the Central Military Committee building, etc. These are unprecedented instability factors.

The Central Discipline Inspection Commission's article said the first security issue for national security is political security; the most important issue of the political security is the "security of ruling" for the Communist regime. How to understand this "security of ruling?" Is it not overturned? Wei Jingsheng said that during the Mao Zedong era, "security" was focused on the security of Marxism-Leninism; while in the Deng Xiaoping era, it was focused on economic security; but now Xi Jinping is concentrating on the security within the Communist leadership. From last year, Xi began to warn that no small cliques would be allowed within the CCP, which indicates that this unease within the Communist Party cannot be underestimated. Although the people who are dissatisfied with the Communist Party will not rise in conflict with it, they will make their confrontation by hindrances and other negative approaches. When there were similar crises during the Mao Zedong era, Mao had experienced measures to deal with them, but now Xi Jinping cannot catch up.

The hosts asked: The CCP held its Sixth Plenary Session of its Eighteenth Congress this fall, which established Xi Jinping as "the core leader." What kind of concept does "the core leader" mean to you? What is the practical significance of establishing Xi Jinping as "the core leader?" Is Xi Jinping setting himself up as the third "core leader" after Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping? Wei Jingsheng pointed out that "core" is defined to have reached a certain degree of power, prestige and ability. However, Xi Jinping did not reach such a high degree yet he has set himself up as "the core leader", which resulted in a huge rebound of this "core" theory both inside and outside of the Communist leadership. Xi Jinping should not try to occupy that supreme position, which is just accelerating the demise of himself.

Before and after the CCP's Sixth Plenary Session of the 18th Congress, Xi Jinping replaced top leaders of many provinces. Reports said that the officials involved were as many as 20, while Xi Jinping also used his own people to control the army, armed police and public security departments. Will Xi be able to place his own people in all positions and fully control the highest leading power of the Communist regime before next autumn when the CCP will have its 19th Congress? Wei Jingsheng said that many foreign observers like to analyze from a foreign point of view. In fact, the CCP officials are only working for the Communist Party in name, but working for themselves in reality. When a new provincial governor comes to power, he may not have the capacity to mobilize his subordinates for a couple years; this is the problem. Even if Xi Jinping replaced all the people with his own at all the important positions, it is still impossible to ensure that these people can immediately start making commands. Moreover, Xi Jinping does not have the capacity to have everyone to follow him. He could not balance either side: the people being not happy with the corruptions of officials, or the officials being not happy to be caught. Xi Jinping's style of taking strong hardliner approaches will only intensify the contradictions. If he softens a little, perhaps he could barely survive to the end of his term.

Bao Shen questioned: Up to now Xi Jinping has broken the CCP's approach of "the preceding leader designating the successor of the current leader" that has been carried out for the last 30 years. A successor has not been designated. What is his intention? Will he, as many experts have said, continue to hold power even after the 20th Congress of the CCP?

Wei Jingsheng said regarding the successor issue it must be emphasized that, first, the "designating of a successor by a processor of the current leader" itself is not legitimate; second, when the successor is not designated, it will result in dissatisfaction -- both competitors and people dissatisfied within the Communist Party will not ignore Xi Jinping trying to occupy the throne of the highest power for his whole life.

The host asked: What is the biggest crisis that Xi Jinping is facing? Economic collapse? Coup? Military coup? The CCP has constantly stressed "absolute loyalty", "the media belongs to the CCP" and "the CCP leads everything." Can this kind of crisis be resolved when the loyalty within the CCP improves? Wei Jingsheng thinks that the biggest crisis of Xi Jinping is that the Chinese Communist Party has completely lost its trust from the Chinese people. People do not believe in Xi Jinping and all the promises and slogans of the CCP. When a governing power has lost people's hearts to this extent, it is already a miracle for the regime to be maintained. Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign has only been in effect a short time, but it already let people completely lose their confidence. People consider his anti-corruption as "the boy who cried wolf" - using anti-corruption slogans to engage in political struggles. By taking a ruthless hardliner on both the officials and the people, Xi Jinping has offended both sides completely.

Some listeners/viewers and netizens asked what changes China has made politically since Xi Jinping became the top leader for the Communist Party, the country, and the army in2012? And what direction China is headed to? Is China at the end of a dynasty? Is Xi Jinping going to learn from the Singapore model? Wei Jingsheng pointed out that the reality in China makes people no longer believe in the Communist Party, even including those old revolutionaries and party members. Why do so many people not believe in communism and not abide by the provisions of the Party either? Xi Jinping needs to think and to answer this question. Moreover, it is impossible for the CCP to replicate the Singapore model because Singapore has an independent and complete judicial system thus allowing the regime to govern stably. But the CCP has no rule of law - when there are no rules, it will not just harm the others but also itself.

Wei Jingsheng expressed that from the dynasty point of view the Chinese Communist regime has been around for a while. The resentment of the common people is increasing and the bureaucratic classes are becoming increasingly bitter as well. This resentment will eventually lead to the collapse of the Chinese Communist regime. No matter how it will collapse, democracy is attributable. The root of a democratic system is not the election, but the opposition. Where there is opposition and opposition parties, the people have a choice. Only in this way can the rights of ordinary people be guaranteed.

Xi Jinping has been fighting corruption for four years. How effective has it been? What changes have been made to the Chinese bureaucratic class and their ruling? What has changed with the status and role of the Central Discipline Inspection Commission and its future development? Wei Jingsheng said, Xi Jinping's ruling has been to take back all the slight concessions to the people by Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, so the ideological and political environment has deteriorated in China. As for supervision, countless means of supervision were invented in ancient China, but never were they able to control corruption because all the officials were acting as a gang, with their interests intertwined. Only by adopting independent political parties, independent judiciaries and independent media like the West, could we see them playing the role of a real supervisor.

For more exciting content, please watch the live video:

http://www.voachinese.com/a/3608421.html

Original link of this VOA report:

http://www.voachinese.com/a/issue-and-opinion-wei-jingsheng-on-political-development-in-china-20161123/3608506.html

This video is also available at:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/interviews/interviews2016/WeiJSonCCPleadership161123VOAtalkshow.mp4

and on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpKA8mJ23s4

or:

https://youtu.be/h3sjRCjcOb8

Related audio:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/interviews/interviews2016/WeiJSonCCPleadership161123VOAtalkshow.mp3

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A973-W625

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A973-W625

Release Date: November 27, 2016

发布日：2016年11月27日

Topic: Wei Jingsheng 's Analysis of the Political Situation of the Chinese Communist Regime (Voice of America "Issues and Opinions" Program)

标题：魏京生剖析中共政局(美国之音“时事大家谈”节目)

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2016/report2016-11/WeiJSonCCPleadership161127VOAtalkshowA973-W625.htm

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(编者按：以下为2016年11月23日美国之音“时事大家谈”主持人宝申采访魏京生先生的节目介绍。)

美国之音时事大家谈：魏京生剖析中共政局

最后更新：2016.11.23 23:57

-- 美国之音宝申主持

华盛顿 -

中纪委网站星期一发表文章称，周永康、薄熙来、郭伯雄、徐才厚、令计划等严重违纪违法案件的发生，警示中共现在并非"天下太平"，政治警觉性须臾不可放松。文章还说，党和国家安全首先是政治安全，政治安全中最重要的就是党的"执政安全"。回顾2016年，中共召开了十八届六中全会，确立了习近平的"核心地位"。全会召开前后，习近平撤换了包括北京市委高层以及许多省市自治区的一把手，用其旧部或亲信接管，同时也利用自己的心腹掌控军队、武警和公安部门。在中共为明年十九大紧锣密鼓地进行准备之际，中纪委警告"天下并不太平"的用意何在？中共党内最高层的权力斗争和派系斗争目前处于何种状态？习近平能否在明年的十九大上建立一套自己的人马，牢固自己的核心地位？而一旦如愿以偿，习近平又将把中国引向何方？

主持人提问，中共在今年7月分别判处令计划和郭伯雄无期徒刑，而周永康在2015年6月被宣判无期，薄熙来也在2013年7月被宣判无期，徐才厚于2013年7月病亡。为什么中纪委的文章认为现在"天下并非太平"呢？危险来自何处？魏京生表示，习近平政府面临两面夹击。一方面是那些被警告的党内官员，他们心怀不满；另一方面是中共从未遇到过的、强烈的民间反抗，这包括贾敬龙案和退伍军人在军委大楼前抗议等。这些都是前所未有的不稳定因素。

中纪委的文章说，国家安全首先是政治安全，政治安全中最重要的就是党的"执政安全"。"执政安全"如何理解？是不是不被推翻？魏京生说，毛时代侧重马列主义安全，邓时代则是关注经济安全，现在的习专注党内安全。习近平去年便开始警告不许搞小团体，说明党内不安的现象已经不容小觑。尽管党内不满者不会与组织发生正面冲突，但是却以消极怠工的手法来对峙。毛泽东时代在遇到类似危机时，毛有老练的措施来应对，而现在的习近平则只能望尘莫及。

主持人问，今年秋天，中共召开了十八届六中全会，确立了习近平的"核心地位"。对你来说，这个"核心"是一个什么样的概念？确立习核心的实际意义是什么？习近平是否正在把自己树立成毛、邓之后的第三个核心？魏京生指出，"核心"界定的是已经到达一定程度的权势、声望和能力。而习近平并没有达到这样的高度却仍然自立核心，所以核心论引发党内外巨大的反弹。他不应该试图占领那个至高位置，这是在加速自己的灭亡。

中共十八届六中全会前后，习近平撤换了许多省份的第一把手。报道说，涉及的官员多达20名，同时也在利用自己的人马来管控军队、武警和公安部门。明年秋天中共十九大以前，习近平是否能让自己的人马就位，全面掌控中共的高层领导权？魏京生表示，很多外国观察家喜欢从外国的角度来分析。其实，中共党内官员名义上为党服务，实则为自己效劳。一名新省长上台，可能两三年都没有魄力调动下属，这就是问题所在。习近平即便在重要岗位都换上自己的人马，也不可能保证这些人马能立刻发号施令。况且习也根本没有让所有人都跟随的本事。他那一方都摆不平：百姓不高兴官员腐败，官员也不高兴被打。他诉诸强势的作风只会激化矛盾；如果缓和一点儿，或许还能勉强熬到终点。

宝申提问，到现在为止习近平已经打破了30年来中共"隔代指定"的做法，仍然没有指定下一任领导人。他的用意何在？他会不会像许多专家所说的那样，在中共20大后继续不放权？

魏京生表示，关于接班人问题必须强调的是，第一，隔代指定本身并不合法；第二，不指定则引发不满，无论竞争者还是党内的不满者都不会无视习近平终生占据最高权力宝座的做法。

主持人问，习近平面临的最大危机是什么？经济崩溃？政变？军变？中共现在不断强调"绝对忠诚"、"媒体姓党"、"党领导一切"。能不能提高党内的忠诚度，化解这样的危机？魏京生认为，习的最大危机是，中共完全失信于民。老百姓对习近平、对中共的一切承诺和口号都完全不信。失民心到这种程度，政权依然维持，这已经是奇迹。习近平反腐时间不长，却已经让民众完全失去信心。人们认为反腐不过是"狼来了"，利用反腐口号搞政治斗争。加上习近平对官、对民都不惜下狠手，因此把两边都得罪殆尽。

一些听众/观众和网友提问，从习近平2012年成为中共党政军最高领导人以来，中国在政治上发生了哪些变化，正在朝什么方向发展？中国是否处于王朝末日？习近平是否新加坡模式？魏京生指出，中国的现实让人们不再相信党，包括那些老革命和老党员在内。如此多的人不信仰共产主义也不遵守党的规定，这是为什么？习近平需要思考和回答这个问题。另外，中共也不可能复制新加坡模式，因为新加坡独立而完整的司法体系，得以让政权稳定执政；中共则没有法治，不讲规则，终究害己害人。

魏京生表示，从王朝的角度看，中共政权已经不短。老百姓的反感与日俱增，官僚阶层积怨成痼，这些最终将导致中共垮台。无论垮台的方式如何，民主才是归属。民主制度的根本不在选举，而是在于有反对党、有对立面，百姓有选择。只有这样，老百姓的权利才有保障。

习近平四年来一直在打击贪腐。实际效果如何？给中共官僚阶层和执政带来什么变化？中纪委的地位和作用发生了什么变化？发展如何？魏京生表示，习近平执政所做的是全部收回江、胡对老百姓所作出的细微让步，让思想和政治环境恶化。至于监督，中国古达发明过无数监督手段，但是却始终没有管住腐败，因为所有人都在一个团伙之内，他们的利益盘根错节。只有像西方一样，采取独立政党、独立司法和独立媒体的方式，才能起到名副其实的监督作用。

更多精彩内容，请收看节目实况录像：

http://www.voachinese.com/a/3608421.html

报道的原始链接：

http://www.voachinese.com/a/issue-and-opinion-wei-jingsheng-on-political-development-in-china-20161123/3608506.html

也可在以下网页观看相关录像：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/interviews/interviews2016/WeiJSonCCPleadership161123VOAtalkshow.mp4

Youtube上的录像：

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpKA8mJ23s4

及：

https://youtu.be/h3sjRCjcOb8