Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A978-W630

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A978-W630

Release Date: December 11, 2016

发布日：2016年12月11日

Topic: China Will Be In Trouble When Donald Trump Is In Power -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：川普执政后中国将陷入困境 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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China Will Be In Trouble When Donald Trump Is In Power

-- Wei Jingsheng

Xi Jinping and the US President-elect Donald Trump had a telephone conversation. According to the Chinese media, President Xi talked tough, while Trump seemed to be submissive. However, we are all familiar with the Communist regime's habit of boasting and deceiving propaganda.

From Xi Jinping emphasizing his threat to Trump about the very importance of the cooperation between the two countries and that "cooperation is the only correct choice" and not wanting to undermine the existing cooperative relations, it illustrates that he is very nervous and takes seriously Trump's campaign promises: to take back job opportunities from China; to ask China to open up its market; and even to fight a trade war. This time I think Xi Jinping's judgment is relatively to the point -- it is time to seriously deal with a trade war.

Since President Bill Clinton opened the unfair trade between China and the United States, the US trade deficit with China has gradually increased from 60 billion US dollars a year to 360 billion dollars a year. Use of cheap labor forced US companies to transfer technology and to relocate factories, with a direct result of the loss of millions jobs in the USA, rising unemployment and decline of income of the wage earners in the USA.

These are the root causes of Trump to get more support during this presidential campaign. That Xi Jinping did not listen to the nonsense analysis by the scholars in China who only know how to brown their noses, illustrates that he was not that silly. As the main economic adviser of the Trump team responded to the reporters, on this issue Trump will definitely do what he said. Xi Jinping solemnly warned Trump about this, and also rapidly reduced the RMB exchange rate to the US dollars, indicating that the trade war has already been kicked off.

Many Chinese believe that the United States does not dare to fight a trade war with China because of more than one trillion dollars held in US debt, which would result in the collapse of the US economy when they are all sold off. Many Americans also agree with this view due to the misguidance of the US media.

But the HSBC has just analyzed and measured that action will only result in a depreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of the Chinese currency RMB (RenMinBi), which is conducive to the United States to increase its exports and reduce its imports. Since this is the result the United States wishes but has been unable to get, which is even better than lowering interest rates, so why not?

Further, the Treasury securities are traded regularly. Regardless who buys and who sells them cannot really affect the real economy. The government plans of buying back some at a lower price in fact could earn some money to fill its fiscal deficit. This is of great benefit to the United States. If I were the US Treasury Secretary, I would go to Beijing and happily ask Xi Jinping to have a big sale of US debt.

After selling its US Treasury bonds, China would have to convert the cash into other hard currency, or the Chinese currency RMB. That conversion will result in the appreciation of other hard currency and the RMB. Imports will increase while exports decrease, in the terms of the US dollars. This is detrimental to the exports and imports of all countries beside the United States, and beneficial to US imports and exports, which can drastically reduce the US trade deficit. If Trump can realize his promise so soon, he should blow Xi Jinping a kiss to thank him.

Besides this phantom of the threat manufactured by the Wall Street, what other means does China have to fight this trade war with Trump? None. In the area of high-tech and high value-added products, China has no advantage but the cheap labor. And the labor cost is the main part that Trump with strike at, so the score will be greatly beneficial to the Trump team and not conducive to Xi Jinping's team. We could see the clues from Xi Jinping quickly taking action to reduce the RMB exchange rate, which once again illustrates that Xi Jinping is not stupid.

But Xi Jinping is indeed stupid enough: as others were still debating whether China should be identified as a currency manipulator or not, he timely provides conclusive evidence to them. Not according to changes in the market, but due to the government's order to devalue the RMB, is not this the manipulation of the exchange rate? This round of the fight will be one Xi Jinping lost for sure.

In the past, the reason that the United States did not dare to launch a trade war with China despite such an advantage, is because China should be thankful to their big brothers on Wall Street, and their scholars and lobbies they paid for. Now these people are the object of hate by the American people, and they care more of their own survival. Trump's team is in line with the wishes of the people; thus he won this presidential election, so the possibility of his acting contrary to the main promise of this election is small.

More, Trump himself is very rich. His campaign was not for economic benefits, but as a real idealist. So one hopes he is a person who wants to do some great things for the USA, instead of been bought with the interests from the Wall Street. The continued means of China buying out the US politicians to promote its own unreasonable interests has become impracticable. So now it is time to return to the state of working solidly, instead of boasting and threatening.

To be considerate of Xi Jinping, and more to be considerate of the Chinese people, Xi Jinping should only use a pragmatic attitude to deal with Trump, and pragmatically ease or even stop the trade war with the United States. It would be childish if he thinks that correcting Trump's trademark lawsuit in China will be enough. Will this change Trump's attitude even one percent? The people in Beijing's phrase would be: are you cursing me? It would result in the accusation of Trump as abusing power for personal gain. So it is better not to play this kind of children's game.

To make peace in that lawsuit that surely would be lost, you should know what the other wants. Giving out small favors to make up a delay, is also a tact. But will the others be so stupid? What the others wants is a change of the pattern of Sino-US trade, or changes in China's political and economic system, including changes in the legal system.

To put it simply is to treat law seriously, open the Chinese market to the United States, and to implement laws that open up the freedom of association and freedom of speech to the Chinese people. We want to allow the Chinese people to have freedom of association for workers' unions to make collective bargaining to raise working-class incomes, to expand China's domestic market, and to expand the US market in China, meanwhile reducing unfair competition among the US enterprises. For both the United States and China, it will be a win-win situation. Why not?

But the process will certainly not be smooth. China's monopoly of large enterprises, and the US firms that make money in China will certainly lobby the Chinese and American politicians to block the emergence of this win-win situation. In the United States they have little hope of success, in China they have little likeliness of failure. That is because Xi Jinping is not as strong as he boasted; corrupt officials within the Communist regime are looking for reasons to get rid of him. I estimate that the future will be a mess, which will have a negative impact on the global economy.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2016/WeiJS161116onTrumpChina.mp3

(Written and recorded on November 16, 2016. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A978-W630

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A978-W630

Release Date: December 11, 2016

发布日：2016年12月11日

Topic: China Will Be In Trouble When Donald Trump Is In Power -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：川普执政后中国将陷入困境 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2016/report2016-12/WeiJS161211onTrumpChinaA978-W630.htm

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川普执政后中国将陷入困境

-- 魏京生

习近平和美国当选总统川普通了电话。据中国媒体说，咱们的习主席口气强硬，听上去川普似乎唯唯诺诺。不过大家都熟悉中共习惯的自吹自擂，欺骗宣传的手法。

从习近平重点威胁川普说：两国的合作非常重要，不能破坏已有的合作关系，说明他们非常心虚，认真看待了川普竞选的诺言：要从中国争回工作机会；要求中国开放市场；甚至要打一场贸易战。这一次我觉得习近平的判断还比较靠谱，是该严肃对待贸易战了。

自从克林顿总统开启了中美之间的不公平贸易格局以来，美国对中国的贸易逆差，从每年六百亿美元增加到了三千六百亿美元。而且利用廉价劳动力迫使美国企业转让技术和搬迁工厂，直接造成美国丢失了几百万工作机会，造成失业率上升，工薪阶层收入下降。

这些正是川普这次竞选获得更多支持的根本原因。习近平没有听从国内的马屁学者，御用文人的瞎扯蛋分析，说明他还没那么傻。正如川普的主要经济顾问回答记者所说的那样，在这个问题上川普肯定会说到做到。习近平为此一脸严肃地警告川普，并且在迅速地降低人民币汇率，预示着贸易战已经拉开了序幕。

很多中国人认为美国不敢和中国打贸易战，因为中国手中握有上万亿美元的美国国债，一旦抛售美国经济就会跨掉。很多美国人在美国媒体的忽悠下，也同意这种观点。

但是汇丰银行对此进行了分析和测算，其结果只能造成美元贬值，人民币升值，有利于美国增加出口减少进口。这正是美国求之不得的后果，比降低贷款利率效果还好，何乐而不为呢？

而且国债是定期回收。无论谁卖了谁买了都不影响实体经济。政府有计划地低价回收，实际上还可以赚它一笔，填补财政赤字。这对美国大大有利。我要是美国财政部长，我会前往北京，兴高采烈地请求习大大赶快抛售美国国债。

抛售美国国债，中国就得把它变现成为其它硬通货，或者人民币。届时将会造成其它硬通货和人民币升值。按美元计算的进口增加，出口减少。这对美国以外的所有国家的进出口不利，对美国的进出口有利，可以大大减少美国的贸易逆差。川普的诺言这么快就实现，他应该给习近平一个飞吻来感谢他。

除了这个被华尔街制造出来的幻影威胁之外，中国还有什么手段和川普打这场贸易战呢？没有了。在高技术、高附加值产品方面，中国没有优势，只有廉价劳动力方面的优势。而这正是川普要卡住的主要部分，比分将会大大有利于川普队而不利于习近平的团队。这从习近平预先快速降低人民币汇率，可以看出端倪，又一次说明习近平不傻。

但是习近平也确实够傻的：人家还在争论是否应该把中国认定为汇率操纵国，你就及时给人家提供了确凿无疑的证据。不是根据市场的变化，而是用政府命令使人民币贬值，这不就是汇率操纵吗？这一回合看来习近平也是坐在书本上赌钱，输定了。

过去之所以在这样的优势下，美国不敢对中国发动贸易战，是中国应该感谢华尔街的大佬，和他们豢养的学者以及游说团体。现在这些人已经是美国人民深恶痛绝的对象，自身难保。川普团队正是顺应人民的愿望，才赢得了大选，违背这个竞选主要诺言的可能性微乎其微。

再者川普自己很有钱，他竞选不是为了经济利益，而是真正的理想主义者：是华尔街无法用利益收买的人，是真正要为美国作一番大事业的人。中国一贯的靠收买美国政客来增进自己不合理的利益的手段，已经行不通了。现在只能回到踏踏实实办事的状态中，牛逼轰轰必须收起来了。

为习近平计，更为了中国老百姓计，习近平只能以务实的态度处理和川普的关系，务实地减轻以至于停止和美国的贸易战。仅仅把川普个人在中国的官司纠正，也太小儿科了吧。这能改变川普万分之一的态度吗？北京话说：你骂人呢吧。这不是给咱川普扣一顶以权谋私的帽子吗？别跟咱玩儿这种哩艮儿聋。

要在这场必败的官司中求和局，就得知道人家想要的是什么。给一点小恩小惠凑合着拖延，也是一种战术。但人家就那么傻吗？人家要的是中美贸易的大格局的变化，或者说是中国政治经济体制的变化，包括法律体制的变化。

简单说就是严肃法律，对美国开放中国市场；执行法律，对中国人民开放结社和言论自由。要让中国人民可以结社以便组织工会集体谈判，提高工薪阶层的收入，扩大中国的国内市场；也扩大了美国在中国的市场，同时减轻了美国企业之间的不公平竞争。对美国和中国来说，这是个双赢的局面。何乐而不为呢？

但过程肯定不会顺利。中国的垄断大企业，和美国在华赚钱的企业肯定会游说中美两国的政界，阻挠这个双赢局面的出现。在美国他们成功的希望不大，在中国他们失败的希望不大。因为习近平不像他吹嘘的那么强大，党内的贪官污吏们正在找理由干掉他。估计将来会是一个乱局，对全球经济是一个负面的影响。