Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A979-W631

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A979-W631

Release Date: December 18, 2016

发布日：2016年12月18日

Topic: The China-USA Economic and Trade Relations During the Trump Times -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：川普时代的中美经贸关系 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The China-USA Economic and Trade Relations During the Trump Times

-- Wei Jingsheng

On January 20 next year, the Trump era will begin. During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said that the first thing to do after he took office was to withdraw from the "Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement", which is commonly known as TPP. His reason is that this agreement will further lead to the economic recession in the USA, and loss even more job opportunities. Hillary Clinton also had the same promise during the election campaign, so whoever came to power would withdraw from the TPP.

Most of the media think it is normal for United States politicians not to carry out what they promised, so they still hold hope of Hillary Clinton. They all believe that it will be a disaster when Donald Trump comes to power, and free trade will no longer exist. Thus they deduce that the United States will lose the dominance of the world economy, while China will become a rule-maker. Alas, the end of the world.

I think this is again the big business in Europe and the USA fooling the whole world with the most media that they are controlling. The presidential election of the USA fully exposed the monopoly and manipulation they had on the news media, even to the manipulation of the polls, thus they have lost their credit. One can see these big fools are indeed untrustworthy.

These large business enterprises use the Chinese cheap labor and the US market to earn excess profits, and have enjoyed over a decade of heavenly-like good days. Their policy is to protect their paradise. But more than 90 percent of the American middle class and the poor have been gradually slipping down to hell. This time the big surprise coming out of the ballot is the reflection of this situation.

People have had growing disbelief in Washington politicians who talk well but cannot be counted on, because the majority voters in the United States are increasingly unable to endure this slip toward hell. Obama's shouting slogan "change" tricked the American people to give him eight years, which caused much fewer people who still believe what Hillary Clinton vowed anymore. Those people who voted for Donald Trump were not the more fashionable young people and African Americans, but the middle-aged and old-aged whites in pain and think why. Without a change from the current situation, they are worried even their pensions and health insurance will be a problem.

Will quitting the TPP result in the USA really losing its domination on trade rules? This argument is really poles apart and outrageously wrong. People with a little common sense of trade know that for more than ninety percent of the goods, it is the buyer's market. That is to say who holds the market, who will have the initiative and is the rule-maker.

China's market is very small. It mainly relies on cheap labor and a semi-closed import market to make money. With the premise of no improvement of human rights, the domestic market in China cannot be expanded. After Donald Trump takes the President's office, with the premise that the USA also becomes the same type of semi-closed market China will lose most of the market. A considerable number of business enterprises in China will have to go bankrupt, a considerable number of workers in China will be unemployed.

Some people bickered: But we still have that so and so alternative agreement with other countries. This is really what we call "dreams from the Spring and Autumn Dynasty" - very unrealistic. Besides the USA, who would provide you with such a big market? When you play the games with a bunch of small and poor countries that all want to close their own markets yet take advantage of China, the results would be these alternative agreements would soon became wasted paper, any rule will be useless.

The Japanese, who are well known for their intelligence, are never stupid enough to join such an agreement. Even if they joined, they would quit after they cannot endure it for just a few years. That is because Japan does not have a big market like the United States, and cannot stand this kind endless unfair trade. Even before Donald Trump takes office, Japan had already taken the lead to abolish the special preferential trade system with China and other countries, to take the preparatory work in advance. Using a Chinese phrase, it is called the person is smarter than a monkey when the monkey hair was glued on him - very smart!

Is the Communist regime with its Xi Jinping as its core really ready to fight stubbornly? Xi Jinping does not have that capital. To confront a decrease in trade, he can only greatly increase the income of the working-class in China in order to absorb the excess domestic production capacity. In so doing, the capitalists would be made unhappy and a large number of enterprises may go bankrupt. This is another kind of economic and political turmoil.

So Xi Jinping can only open the import market in exchange for Trump's understanding and thus not completely closing the US market. One of the major advantages of opening up the import market is to rapidly increase the speed of industrial upgrading in China so that it can adapt to the fair trade market after it is opened, instead of encountering a large number of rapid bankruptcies resulting in severe economic and social unrest. As for the extent and speed of opening, it depends on whether that old Mr. Trump will accept it or not. This prediction is hard to be calculated because the initiatives are in the hands of the others.

Another person will bicker: cheap labor is our long-term advantage, the United States cannot beat us for this. Do not tell us about human rights. These workers should feel lucky to have some wages to take back home, when we make big money. Do you not say it takes three generations to develop the aristocracy? We are just about to become nobles after three generations and you should not be jealous and hate us.

This kind of stupid generation can become nobles after three generations? I deeply doubt it. Do you think that the Americans will not know if you do not raise wages? When the United States seizes the initiative to continuously close its import market, Xi Jinping will not be able to continue. Without expansion of the Chinese domestic market, it will not be beneficial to the Americans. Then it would be difficult for the Communist regime in China to achieve its goal of delay tactics on the economy.

Not expanding the domestic market will be even more negative to the domestic enterprises trying to adapt to the fair trade. As a matter of fact, the small domestic market is already a bottleneck of the economy in China. When one is stupid, it does not mean the others are stupid as well. I think only these flatterers who work for the Communist media and lay experts fed for years would give stupid analyses about the domestic market in an effort to please their bosses.

I want to warn again, do not take any illusions about so-called alternative agreements. As I just said, one stupid person does not mean all the others are stupid as well. By spreading money all over the world, one cannot get a shred of true friendship. As one plays the role of a "great" country, the other would just take advantage of it, as one had taken advantage of the USA. For the most vicious ones, friendship is far less beneficial than benefits. When you wake up from so and so alternative agreements, the others have already made enough good deal from you and got ahead of you.

At that time, people have enough reason to laugh at a stupid one who would be so poor not to have enough food, yet still spreading his money in his "emperor 's new clothes". From this aspect, we really see the continuity of the Communist Party from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping, or using Xi's own words, the "tendons are connected even when the bones are broken". If we use the common Chinese verbs, which may not sound very elegant, it is called "the dogs can not change their nature of eating the poop."

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2016/WeiJS161128onChinaUStrade.mp3

(Written and recorded on November 28, 2016. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A979-W631

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A979-W631

Release Date: December 18, 2016

发布日：2016年12月18日

Topic: The China-USA Economic and Trade Relations During the Trump Times -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：川普时代的中美经贸关系 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2016/report2016-12/WeiJS161218onChinaUStradeA979-W631.htm

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川普时代的中美经贸关系

-- 魏京生

明年一月二十号川普时代将要开始。川普竞选期间多次谈到他就职后第一件事就是退出《跨太平洋伙伴协议》，也就是通称的TPP。他的理由是这个东西将会进一步导致美国经济衰退，进一步丢失工作机会。希拉里克林顿在竞选期间也有同样的诺言，所以无论谁上台都一样会退出TPP。

大部分媒体都认为美国政客上台后说话不算数是常态，所以对希拉里的说话不算数抱有希望。它们都认为川普上台是个灾难，自由贸易将不存在了。进而就推论出美国将失去对世界经济的主导权，中国将会成为规则制定者。呜呼哀哉，世界末日了。

我认为这又是占惯了便宜的欧美大企业，在利用他们几乎垄断的媒体忽悠全世界。这次美国大选就充分暴露了他们对媒体的垄断和操控，连民意调查都受到操控，失去了信用。可见现在的大忽悠是真的不可信。

这些大企业利用中国的廉价劳动力和美国的市场赚取超额利润，过了十几年天堂一般的好日子。他们的政策就是死保他们的天堂。可是占百分之九十以上的美国中产阶级和贫民，却是一步步地向地狱滑下去。这回的选票出现大意外，就是这种形势的反映。

人们已经越来越不相信善于说话不算数的华盛顿政客。因为美国的大多数选民越来越不能忍受滑向地狱的处境。奥巴马闪烁其词的口号叫做改变，忽悠了美国人民八年，害得希拉里信誓旦旦也很少人相信了。把川普捧上台的不是比较时髦却较少思考的年轻人和黑人，而是痛定思痛的中老年白人。再不改变，他们的退休金和医疗保险都成问题了。

退出TPP后真的会使美国失去贸易规则的主导权吗？这可是南辕北辙，错得离谱了。稍微懂得一点贸易常识的人都知道，对于百分之九十以上的商品来说，现在是买方市场。也就是说谁掌握着市场，谁就有主动权，就是规则的制定者。

对中国来说，它的市场很小。它主要是靠廉价劳动力和半封闭的进口市场来赚钱。在人权得不到改善的前提下，国内市场不可能扩大。在川普上台后，使美国成为同样半封闭市场的前提下，中国必然失去大部分市场。相当大的一批企业将不得不破产，相当多的工人将不得不失业。

有人抬杠说：我们还有那个什么什么替代性的协议呢。这可真的是那个叫春秋大梦的什么什么玩意儿了。除了美国谁能给你提供那么大的市场呢？和一帮小穷国玩，大家都封闭进口市场还想占便宜。不用多久什么什么协议就成了一张废纸了，制定什么规则都没用。

以精明著称的日本人，决不会傻到加入这种协议。即使加入了，也熬不了几年就会退出。因为日本没有美国市场大，受不了这种吃亏没底的不公平贸易。川普还没执政，日本就率先取消了中国等国的特殊贸易优惠制度，预先做好了不吃亏的准备工作。真是粘上毛儿比猴儿还精。

小习为核心的中共真的准备顽强对抗吗？他没有本钱。要对抗他只能超大幅度提高工薪阶层的收入，以便吸收国内过剩的产能。这样做资本家们肯定不高兴，一大批企业可能要破产。这是另外一种经济政治的动荡。

他只能开放进口市场，以期换得川普的谅解，而不完全封闭美国的市场。开放进口市场的一大好处，就是快速提高中国产业升级的速度，使之能够适应开放后的公平贸易市场。而不至于大批迅速破产，造成剧烈的经济和社会动荡。至于开放的幅度和速度，则要看川普老先生能否接受了。这个谁也算不准，主动权在人家手里嘛。

另一个杠头会说：俺们的廉价劳动力是个长期优势，美国就是玩不过我们这个优势。别跟俺们说什么人权，臭工人能拿到工资就不错了，俺们不赚大钱谁赚？不是说养成贵族要三代吗，眼看着富三代就能成贵族了，别在那儿羡慕嫉妒恨，洗洗睡吧。

这种没文化的蠢一代，能养出贵三代吗？我深刻怀疑。你以为你不提高工资，人家美国人都是傻帽吗？不用别的，美国掌握主动权继续封闭进口市场，你们习大大就撑不住了。不扩大国内市场对美国人不利，中共就难以施展经济缓兵之计。

不扩大国内市场，对国内企业适应公平贸易的市场更不利。实际上现在国内市场狭窄就已经是中国经济的瓶颈了。你蠢不等于别人也蠢，估计只有党媒上的马屁精们和多年来豢养的外行专家才说得出这种蠢话来讨喜。

再警告一遍：不要对那个什么什么替代协议抱任何幻想。还是那句话，你蠢别人不蠢，靠大撒币换不来一丝一毫的友谊。你在那儿牛轰轰地扮演伟大国家，人家正好学习你对美国的方法占便宜。对于穷凶极恶之徒来说，友谊远不如利益来得实惠。等到你躺在那个什么什么替代协议上睡醒了的时候，人家早就赚够便宜跑到前边去了。

到那个时候，人家有充分的理由笑话一个穷得吃不饱饭的傻帽，还在那儿穿着皇帝的新衣大撒币呢。看来共产党从毛泽东到习近平真的是一脉相传，就是小习说的那个什么打断骨头连着筋。用老百姓的俗语，上不了大雅之堂的说法叫做，那个什么改不了吃那个什么的本性，中国人能听懂。