Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A981-W633

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A981-W633

Release Date: January 14, 2017

发布日：2017年1月14日

Topic: The US-China Relationship During the Trump Times -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：川普时代的中美关系 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The US-China Relationship During the Trump Times

-- Wei Jingsheng

Now we are sure of several things related to Donald Trump's presidency:

1) Donald Trump will be the next president of the USA, thus a weak foreign policy of the Obama Administration will come to an end.

2) Trump's key policy is to adjust unreasonable trade relations; the focus of this policy is so-called "free trade" to be adjusted to "fair trade" relations.

3) The target is locked at the largest unfair trading nation -- China.

4) Donald Trump is ready to stop the means of negotiation used in the past, instead using a blockade of the market, that is a trade war, to force China and other trading countries to accept fair trade rules.

5) In his international strategy, there is a trend of easing the relationship with Russia, focusing on the expansion by China.

6) Uniting in alliance with countries in Asia and India to suppress China's strategic expansion, and to force or induce the Southeast Asian countries to return to the embrace of the United States.

The above is what is happening even before Donald Trump takes over the White House. To summarize these facts, we can see that the main target is the Communist regime in China. There are two main goals: one is the Sino-US trade relation, while the other is the control of the East and South China Seas. Does Trump have the opportunity to win these two battles? Or does Xi have a chance to win any of them? Let us make a rough analysis.

Regarding the Sino-US trade relations, Trump has to adjust them. The experience in the past shows that negotiations with the Chinese government cannot change its hooliganism. As the so-called pacifist Mohandas Gandhi said, when a gang of armed robbers come to the village, there is not way to negotiate but to kick them out by force. This is what police are for. The United States happens to be the world police.

What is the weapon of the USA? That is the US market. In the past, China blocked its own market while dumping its goods to the United States, which made the capitalists in both China and the United States earn excess profits while the United States has lost a lot of jobs. Trump's ultimate goal is to balance trade between China and the United States, and to expand the US employment rate.

What is Trump's offensive? Under the premise that China takes advantage of the trade yet is not planning to open its market, Trump is ready to take the lead in launching a trade war, blocking the US market and preventing China's cheap goods from entering the United States. Whatever the reaction from China, this measure must win; it will result in the US manufacturing industry rebounding and the employment rate rising.

What will be Xi Jinping's reaction? From the pro-Communist media, a useful idea is to prepare for a trade war with the United States. They hope that Trump will be like the US presidents of the past, being tough before taking office and compromising with the capitalists afterwards. Thus the trade war is turned into a bluff with everything still as usual. Not only the Chinese Communist Party, but also the American capitalists which made a fortune such as the Boeing Company also hold such a fantasy.

Unfortunately, this is really an illusion. Trump himself is not short of money and his cabinet is satirized as a mix of rich men and military personnel, which makes the traditional buyout and control policy of the Communist Party and big businesses difficult to accomplish. So Xi Jinping can only take the trade war.

As we all know, in a trade war who controls the market will be the winner. Like a contest of the chess masters, the outcome can already be calculated. As the ancient military strategists said, to calculate for a victory first insuring one would win after entering the war. Trump's only trouble is inside but not outside -- to convince those politicians and the businesses that support them to understand the situation is not so easy.

Xi Jinping's acceptance of a trade war will not last long, and he will inevitably be defeated. China's domestic unemployment rate is rising, so the situation is certainly unstable. At this time, Xi Jinping may have two reactions: one is to launch a war to ease the internal conflicts; the other is to reach a compromise with the United States -- to accept the fair trade rules and to protect trade opportunities. I estimate that Xi Jinping will accept the opinions of Chinese military hawks to launch a war.

The issue is that Trump has also expected this possibility and absorbed a large group of US military hawks into his cabinet. Also, after eased relations with Russia, he will deploy a large amount of military power to East Asia. So what target will Xi Jinping choose? Japan and South Korea are allies of the USA, with US garrisons there, so the US military is bound to intervene, and Xi Jinping will fail if he initiates war there.

Vietnam and Taiwan are also not easy bones to chew on. With improper excuses to launch attacks against them, along with the denouncement of the international community and even their coming to support these targets, a delay of the war will result in chaos in China. To block the South China Sea against Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan will also not work. A few small islands there plus the air force and naval strength of the Chinese Communist regime may be enough to deal with the navy and air force of the small countries in Southeast Asia, the really is not capable of opposing the US battle groups with aircraft carriers, so these actions can only be like picking up the stones to smash his own feet.

The only opponent with a good excuse and that can be defeated is North Korea. In the name of resolving North Korea's nuclear weapons, this war will be tolerated and even assisted by the international community. There is no reason for the United States, Japan and South Korea to stop China or to help North Korea. That would be against the will of the international community and would not be the choice of the United States.

The only possible unhappy one is Russia. North Korea has always been Russia's possible expansion of influence. But to the West of Russia, there is the trouble of NATO, as well as the eyeing of the East European countries. It is impossible for Russia to help North Korea and thus offend China, so Xi Jinping using his military against North Korea is a possible choice.

But North Korea is not an easy piece to chew on either. There were many people who opposed the Kim family dynasty. But under the influence of the obscurantist policies of the Communist Party, the resistance against aggression under the patriotic flag is still great. If the war cannot end quickly, it may still cause a domestic instability leading to the collapse of the regime in China.

After the above analysis, we can see that the choice of war by Xi Jinping would result in either defeat or a standoff. So his best option is to reach a fair trade agreement with the United States, and start political and judicial reform. Because to suffocate the Communist regime is not the target of Donald Trump, nor in the interests of the United States. What Trump wants is fair trade with the world's second-largest economy.

Political and judicial reform is the interest for China. Without the protection of human rights there is no increase in the income of the working-class, thus no expansion of the domestic market in China. Without political and judicial reform, there is no improvement of business environment, thus enterprises will continue to flee in a large number. Without an opening of the market, Chinese enterprises cannot quickly introduce advanced technology and management, and will not be able to adapt to competition in the fair trade environment.

So no matter who is in power, quickly reaching a fair trade agreement with the United States is China's only way out.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2016/WeiJS161223onChinaUSrelationship.mp3

(Written on December 22, 2016 and recorded on December 23, 2016. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A981-W633

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A981-W633

Release Date: January 14, 2017

发布日：2017年1月14日

Topic: The US-China Relationship During the Trump Times -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：川普时代的中美关系 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2017/report2017-01/WeiJS170114onChinaUSrelationshipA981-W633.htm

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川普时代的中美关系

-- 魏京生

现在有几件事情可以肯定：

1) 川普是下一届美国总统，奥巴马的软弱政策肯定结束。

2) 川普的重点政策就是调整不合理的贸易关系，重点的重点就是将所谓的自由贸易，调整为公平贸易关系。

3) 目标锁定的最大的不公平贸易国，就是中国。

4) 川普准备停止过去的协商手段，用封锁市场，也就是贸易战的方式迫使中国和其它贸易国接受公平贸易规则。

5) 在国际战略上有缓和与俄国的关系，集中对付中国扩张的趋势。

6）联合亚洲的盟国和印度，压缩中国的战略扩张，迫使或者诱使东南亚各国回到美国的怀抱。

以上就是川普尚未接管白宫，就已经发生的事实。总结这些已经发生的事实，可以看出主要目标就是中共。主要目标是两个：中美贸易关系和东海、南海的控制权。川普有机会赢得这两场斗争吗？或者习近平有机会赢得其中一场吗？我们来作一个粗略的分析。

中美贸易关系，川普一定要调整。过去的经验说明，靠谈判无法改变中国的流氓行径。就像所谓的和平主义的祖师爷甘地所说的那样，和一帮持枪进村抢劫的匪徒，无法谈判，只能用暴力将他们驱逐出去。警察就是干这个的，美国正好是世界警察。

美国的武器是什么呢？就是美国的市场。过去中国封锁了自己的市场，向美国倾销自己的商品，使得中美两国的资本家赚取了超额的利润，而美国却丢失了很多工作机会。川普的最终目的就是要平衡中美之间的贸易，扩大美国的就业率。

川普的攻势是什么呢？在中国占了便宜还卖乖，不打算开放市场的前提下，川普已经准备率先发动贸易战，封锁美国的市场，阻止中国廉价商品进入美国。不管中国作何反应，这一措施必然获胜，美国的制造业必然会复兴，就业率必然会上升。

习近平会作何反应呢？从亲中共的媒体上筛选出有用的想法，就是准备和美国对打贸易战。他们希望川普和过去的美国总统一样，上台前强硬，上台后就会向资本家们妥协。从而把贸易战变成虚张声势，一切照旧。不但中共，像波音公司这样的发了大财的美国资本家们，也抱着这样的幻想。

遗憾的是这真的是个幻想。川普本人不缺钱，他的内阁也被讽刺为不差钱的人和军人混合的内阁，这就使得中共和大企业传统的收买和控制的政策很难奏效。所以习近平只能奉陪贸易战了。

众所周知，在贸易战中，谁掌握了市场谁就是赢家。就像高手过招一样，胜负已经可以算定了。像古代兵家所说的那样，先有胜算然后交战者必胜。川普唯一的麻烦不在外而在内，说服那些政客和支持他们的企业看清形势，不是那么容易。

习近平的贸易战维持不了多久，就必然会败下阵来。中国国内失业率上升，形势肯定不稳。这个时候习近平可能会有两种反应：一种是发动一场战争来缓解国内矛盾；一种是和美国达成妥协，接受公平贸易规则保护贸易机会。我估计习近平会接受国内鹰派军人的意见，发动一场战争。

问题是，川普也已经预计到这种可能性，吸收了一大帮美国的鹰派军人入阁。而且在和俄罗斯缓和关系后，会调派大量军力进入东亚。习近平和谁打呢？日本、韩国是美国的盟国，而且有美国驻军，美军必然参战，习近平战则必败。

越南、台湾也都不是好啃的骨头。而且师出无名，在国际社会的声讨甚至支援下，战事拖延，中国国内必乱。想封锁南海对付日本、韩国和台湾也不行。那几个小岛和中共的海空军实力，对付东南亚小国的海空军还行。看上去还真不是美国航母战斗群的对手，只能是搬起石头砸了自己的脚。

唯一师出有名，而且战之能胜的对手，就是北朝鲜。以解决北朝鲜的核武器为名，会得到国际社会的容忍，甚至协助。美国、日本、韩国也没有理由阻止中国，或者帮助北朝鲜。那会违背国际社会的愿望，不会是美国的选择。

唯一可能不高兴的，是俄罗斯。北朝鲜历来就是俄罗斯可能扩展的势力范围。但是俄罗斯的西方有北约的麻烦，还有东欧各国的虎视眈眈。不可能给北朝鲜帮助因而得罪中国，所以习近平对北朝鲜用兵是一个可能的选择。

但是北朝鲜也不是省油的灯。反对金氏家族的民众非常多，但是在共产党的愚民政策影响下，在反抗侵略的爱国主义冲动下，战争的阻力仍然很大。若不能速战速决，仍然可能造成中共国内不稳，政权崩溃。

经过以上的分析，可知战争的选择不是必败，就是不胜。所以最好的选择就是和美国达成公平贸易的协议，并且进行政治和司法改革。因为困死中共并不是川普的目标，也不是美国的利益。川普要的是和世界第二大经济体的公平贸易。

政治和司法改革则是中国的利益。没有人权的保障就没有工薪阶层收入的提高，就没有国内市场的扩大。没有政治和司法改革，就没有企业经营环境的改善，企业仍将大量外逃。不开放市场，就不能快速引进先进的技术和经营管理，中国的企业将不能适应公平贸易环境下的竞争。

所以无论谁执政，和美国迅速达成公平贸易协议，是中国唯一的出路。