Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A985-W636

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A985-W636

Release Date: February 18, 2017

发布日：2017年2月18日

Topic: Is a Sino-US Trade War Necessary? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中美贸易战是必须的吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Is a Sino-US Trade War Necessary?

-- Wei Jingsheng

Is a Sino-US trade war necessary? This question seems to be very important, but it looks really boring. On one hand, US President Trump has repeatedly claimed to begin a trade war; on another hand the imperial scholars working for Xi Jinping have also vowed to fight a trade war with the USA, claiming how many means they have to fight the United States and so on. Since both sides talk about fighting a trade war, then why do they only play chanting, without carrying it out?

In fact, it is just like two dogs fighting, when they are barking at each other without real action. The more tightly the owner holds the chain, the more fierce the barks; the smaller dogs bark fiercer than the bigger ones. The smart dogs will bark a few times first, then hide behind their lady owners' legs shaking their tails, a crisis thus passed. But when the owner of the big dogs could not restrain them, these smaller dogs could only scream and flee. Finally they are so miserable, their screams turn into cries.

If Xi Jinping were that smart puppy, he would put himself down to negotiate with Donald Trump before President Trump really takes actions. He should admit the unreasonable parts and make speedy corrections, thus turning a war into friendship and eliminating a self-harming trade war into the invisible. Indeed, the two decades long policy of the Communist regime which has been beneficial to itself by harming the others really does not make any sense. There is no need to make an excuse, which would result a lost of opportunity without the possibility of escape.

Why do I say so? First, it is due to the gap of the strength. We do not know why people were misled on this aspect of economics, when they use the total GDP for everything. In fact, this is very one-sided and represents only one relatively convenient piece of statistical data. If the GDP is assumed to represent all the economy, then it is biased. In fact, the total consumption is a better representation of a country's economic situation; that is to say the entire market is the most important indicator.

Which country has the bigger market? Of course it is the United States. Over the past more than two decades, the so-called economic miracle in China relied on dumping huge amounts of goods on the US market, thus to achieve the ultra-high-speed development. But this development uses the method of selfishness by damaging the other -- producing unilateral output and accumulated profits without providing the deserved market to the United States manufacturing. The consequence is that as the US production is shrinking, the Chinese market is only slowly expanding. The overall rate of economic development of the two countries is declining, which is an unsustainable development model for both countries.

Since the economic growth of the two countries over the past more than two decades has been mainly manifested in the growth of commercial profits rather than the growth of production, most of the profits of the United States are converted into financial capital in the hands of businessmen; there has been little technology upgrading for real industrial production, which has lead to a decline in competitiveness and an overheating of the financial markets.

Capital in China has a similar situation. The instability of the political system made it even worse, which results in the expansion of industrial production being only an expansion at the simple technical level, rarely being upgraded. Coupled with the slow growth of China's domestic market and the deformed out of control investment of the infrastructure, this of course results in weak economic growth. When it is further coupled with insuppressible inflation, it has now come to the gate of negative growth.

In other words, this unilateral free trade development model between China and the United States has come to the end. Although the Chinese government and the big capital in China earn excess profits, and although the big US companies and businessmen also earn excess profits, the total development of the production and market of both the United States and China are declining every year. The total development itself tends to zero and is coming to the end.

Who is responsible for this situation? The capitalists and political leaders in both the USA and China are responsible. Examining the details, it seems the responsibility of the American politicians is bigger. That is because that they made compromises with the capitalists in order to get political contributions and thus allowed this unilateral free trade. Bluntly said it was a traitorous act.

China's politicians did not seize the opportunity to promote political reform, which is the main reason that the Chinese enterprises did not have the motivation to upgrade. This window of opportunity for an unsustainable development is very small. Europe, Japan, etc were able seize the opportunity to develop, which did not cause a significant burden on the US economy so they could maintain normal trade relations with the United States to continue their developments.

However, not only did China miss the good window for development, but because China is huge, it has become a burden to the US economy which the USA cannot afford. Now the United States has to terminate this abnormal trade relationship in order to protect its own economic interests, rather than for "containing China" as dreamed by the imperial scholars of the Communist regime. Of course, when needed, it may "contain", especially when Xi Jinping threatens the security of the surrounding area so "containment" has to be carried out.

How can we solve this knot? President Trump has made clear what the United States should do. Do not think this is just President Trump speaking. The American people who elected him said so. So he must do so and can only do so.

What should the Communist regime in China do? That is to know its position before the fight. Do not think that a small dog could defeat a big dog by relying on intimidation. Even if it took its opportunity to bite the big dog, it will not change its fate of crying at the end of the fight.

The first step is to get rid of its habit of being unreasonable. Now it cannot rely on the capitalists to lobby anymore.

The second step is to take the initiative to negotiate, to quickly correct the unfair policy, to strive to open the window for accumulation of profit, all to avoid a rapid collapse.

The third step is to reform the political and economic system, to promote the upgrading of domestic enterprises in technology and management in order to adapt to environment of a fair trade competition.

The fourth step is to quickly raise the income and benefits of working-class in China and expand the Chinese domestic market to a normal and sustainable development.

The Chinese government still has its opportunity. President Trump did not open a trade war immediately, illustrating that he is not willing to fight this trade war either. After all, the best strategy is to solve this issue without any losses; the middle strategy is "to kill one thousand of the enemy, with a loss of eight hundred soldiers"; while the worst policy is to continue this losing battle ending his leadership with a bad reputation forever.

Now President Trump has not take action immediately -- not because he does not dare to, but because he is still hesitant, weighing the pros and cons while waiting for Xi Jinping to get smarter. With the strength of the big dog, it could win a victory without a question. But of course it would be the best if it does not lose anything. President Trump has left the last chance for Xi Jinping, waiting for the small dog to make a wise choice.

If Xi Jinping interprets this opportunity as Trump not daring to confront him, then it is the real irony as teased by the Internet users: he has an IQ problem. Of course, with the flatterers surrounding him and browning their noses, it is really not that easy to keep a clear mind.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2017/WeiJS170130onChinaUStradewar.mp3

(Written on January 29, 2017 and recorded on January 30, 2017. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A985-W636

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A985-W636

Release Date: February 18, 2017

发布日：2017年2月18日

Topic: Is a Sino-US Trade War Necessary? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中美贸易战是必须的吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2017/report2017-02/WeiJS170218onChinaUStradewarA985-W636.htm

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中美贸易战是必须的吗？

-- 魏京生

中美贸易战是必须的吗？这个问题很重要，但看上去确实很无聊。一方面川普一再声称要打贸易战；一方面习近平的马屁学者们也信誓旦旦地要打贸易战，说什么有多少多少手段回击美国等等。既然双方都要打贸易战，那就打呗，别光说不练呀。

其实这就像两只狗打架一样，先以狂吠威胁对方，并不真练。主人越是拉紧链子，叫得越凶；越是小狗叫得越凶。聪明的小狗叫几声就算了，躲到女主人的腿肚子后边摇摇尾巴，一场危机就过去了。等到主人拉不住大狗的时候，小狗就只能惨叫着飞奔逃窜，最后惨不忍睹，从惨叫变成了哀叫。

如果习近平是那只聪明的小狗，在川普没有真正动手之前，就放下架子和川普谈判。自己没道理的地方，虚心承认，快速改正，化干戈为玉帛，好把一场损人不利己的贸易战，消灭于无形之中。中共已经维持了二十年的损人利己的政策，确实没什么道理，没必要强词夺理最后来它个惨不忍睹，想逃都没机会了。

为什么这么说呢？首先是大小实力的差距。现在的人不知道受了谁的误导，言必称国内生产总值，也就是简称的GDP。其实这很片面，只是统计学上比较方便的一种数据而已。如果认为GDP就代表了全部的意义，那就失之偏颇了。实际上消费总量更能够代表一个国家的经济状况，也就是说市场总量是最重要的指标。

市场是谁的大呢？当然是美国。二十多年来中国的所谓经济奇迹，就是依靠向巨大的美国市场倾销商品，才获得了超高速的发展。但这种发展使用损人利己的方法，单方面输出积累利润，却没有向美国提供应有的市场。其后果就是造成美国的生产萎缩的同时，中国的市场只是缓慢地扩大。两国的经济发展总速度在下降，对两国来说是不可持续的发展模式。

由于最近二十多年来两国的经济增长主要表现在商业利润的增长，而不是生产的增长，美国的利润大部分在商人手里转换为金融资本，很少为实业生产的技术升级换代，从而导致竞争力的下降和金融市场过热。

中国的资本有类似的情况，而且更加严重的是政治体制的不稳定性，造成工业生产的扩大只不过是简单技术水平的扩大，很少升级换代。加上中国国内市场增长缓慢和基建投资的畸形失控，经济增长必然乏力，再加上无法遏制的通货膨胀，它已走到了负增长的大门口。

也就是说，中美两国单方向自由贸易的发展模式走到了头。虽然中国政府和大资本赚到了超额的利润；美国的大企业和商人也赚到了超额的利润，但美中两国的生产和市场的总量发展速度，每年都在下降。总发展本身趋向于零，简单说就是走到了头。

是谁造成了这种局面呢？美中两国的资本家和政治领袖都有责任。细说起来还是美国的政客们责任大。他们为了得到政治捐款而向资本家妥协，为单方向自由贸易放水。不客气地说这是一种卖国行为。

中国的政客们没有抓住机会推动政治改革，是中国企业没有升级换代动机的主要原因。这种不可持续发展机会的窗口很小。欧洲、日本等抓住机会发展起来后，没有造成美国经济的重大负担，所以他们可以和美国维持正常贸易关系继续发展。

而中国错过了发展的良好时机，本身又规模巨大，已经成为美国经济负担不起的累赘。现在美国不得不终止这种不正常的贸易关系，是为了保护自己的经济利益，而不是中国御用学者们幻想的什么围堵中国。当然，需要的时候也不是不可能围堵，特别是习近平威胁到周边安全的时候就不得不围堵了。

现在要怎么做才能解开这个死结呢？美国该怎么做，川普已经说得很明白了。不要以为这是川普说的，这是把他选上来的美国人民说的，他必然会，也只能这么作。

中国应该怎么作呢？那就是知道自己是老几，不要以为小狗可以靠恐吓打败大狗。就算它可以顺便咬人家两口，也改变不了最终哀叫的命运。

第一就是改掉不讲理的毛病，现在靠资本家们游说已经不管用了。

第二就是放下架子主动谈判，迅速改正不公平的政策，争取放宽积累利润的窗口，避免快速崩溃。

第三就是政治经济体制的改革，推动国内企业的技术和管理升级换代，以便适应公平贸易环境下的竞争。

第四就是快速提高工薪阶层收入和福利，扩大国内市场走向正常的可持续的发展道路。

机会不是没有。川普没有立刻开打贸易战，正说明他也不愿意打这场贸易战。毕竟没有损失地解决问题是上策；杀敌一千，自损八百是中策；继续损失，自己下台遗臭万年是下策。

现在川普没有马上动手，不是不敢动手，而是还在犹豫，权衡利弊等待习近平学聪明一些。以大狗的实力战而胜之没商量，如果自己一点都不损失那当然最好。川普给习近平留下了最后的机会，等待小狗做出明智的选择。

如果习近平把这个机会理解为不敢对抗，就真是网民们讽刺的那样：智商出了问题。当然，在马屁精们的吹捧之下还能保持清醒的头脑，确实也不那么容易。