Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A989-W639

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A989-W639

Release Date: February 26, 2017

发布日：2017年2月26日

Topic: Starting With the Talk of Kim Jong-Un's Assassination of His Elder Brother -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：从金正恩杀兄谈起 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Starting With the Talk of Kim Jong-Un's Assassination of His Elder Brother

-- Wei Jingsheng

The netizens in China have dubbed North Korea's third-generation dictator, Kim Jong-Un, as "the Third Fat Kim". This is indeed a little wrong, because his grandfather and his father were not that fat. But his eldest brother, Kim Jong-Nam, was almost as fat as him. According to the news on the 13th of this month, Kim Jong-Nam was assassinated at Kuala Lumpur airport in Malaysia.

News spread quickly. There is already a large amount of discussion in the media. Basically no one denies that the younger brother killed his elder brother -- the dictator Kim Jong-un killed his throne competitor. But the media even did not focus as much on Kim Jong-Un killing his own brother, but more about the details of this murder, and the relish of it. This is a bit misleading of public opinion, which hides the taste of the dessert. Of course, perhaps most people follow suit, and enjoy some low-level fun.

According to past reports, this elder brother Kim Jong-Nam was quite critical of his younger brother turned dictator, including criticism of his ability to manage country. Also based on past reports, Kim Jung-Un killed his uncle Jang Song-Thaek in a brutal way because Jang regretted supporting Kim Jung-Un after he came to power -- Jang secretly colluded with the Chinese Communist Party in an effort to support Kim Jong-Nam to replace Kim Jong-Un. So Kim Jong-Un wanted to kill his own brother to keep his own power, which has been common since ancient times. Unfortunately, his brother did not live in North Korea, and was beyond his reach.

People who notice details will immediately think: why wasn't Kim Jong-Nam assassinated long ago, yet was killed now? Also according to past reports the Chinese government sent a lot of bodyguards to protect this competitor of the throne, which made it difficult to reach him by the usual people. Even the professional killers would have difficulty succeeding. Modern security technology is not at the level we see in the novels and the movies. The profession of killers is indeed facing the risk of unemployment.

The issue immediately arises: from the several versions of details which were hotly speculated, this assassination seems to have been very traditional, and even a little clumsy. It did not look like an action with high technical content and tight organization. It seems to be on the ancient level described in the novels by Jin Yong. Why?

To the least, this assassination should have some technical sophistication as in a big action movie from Hollywood. Yet, it was carried out so easily and simply. Maybe there were some secret enemies within. Then who would be these secret enemies within? Also as reported above, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had dispatched a large number of bodyguards to this competitor of the throne in North Korea in order to maintain its ability to control North Korea's political situation. If these bodyguards did not want it, would this traditional clumsy assassination ever succeed?

So without the approval and cooperation of the Communist regime in China, Kim Jong-Un could not eliminate his competitor for the throne even if he was burning with inveterate hatred. But that now he could assassinate his brother so easily is exactly due to internal cooperation from the Chinese regime, which is a result of the policy change from China as well as a forewarning of the new changes in East Asia. As to why the CCP made such a decision, we will have to look at it from a different angle.

From the beginning of the Korean War, the founding emperor of the North Korea Kim Il-Sung played a game of balance between the two big countries China and the former USSR, and thus gained a lot of advantages. Chinese Communist leader Mao Zedong and his men hated his conduct yet were helpless. Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, North Korea has lost its balance, having the CCP to be the only patron to his successor and son, Kim Jong-Il. Conveniently, the CCP turned North Korea into its own little brother and made it provoke the security situation in Asia now and then so the CCP could profit from it.

This time in turn it was Kim Jong-Il who felt helpless. In an effort to maintain his dynasty, he did not want to "reform and open up" like China. He also had more foundation of mass to maintain the dynasty system in North Korea, but the issue is that he was inseparable from his patron. But his son is not quite the same, and now the North Korean people are not quite the same either. Further, being a puppet to China does not make this third generation of the Kim dynasty who returned from studying in the West feel easy. This is the cause of the instability in the Sino-DPRK relations in recent years, as well as the CCP leader Xi Jinping's desire to abandon this little brother. And, this little brother has the desire of betrayal -- he consistently offers an olive branch to the United States, trying to ask for direct negotiations with the USA.

In the past, the Chinese Communist regime could buy American politics through capitalists -- the United States resolutely has not accepted the olive branch from the North Korea, and instead nailed it on the war chariot of China. This would be one of the conditions of the big American businesses with the Chinese Communist regime. But now the President of the United States has changed the strategy. Even during his campaign, President Trump said that he could negotiate with North Korea alone.

This made Xi Jinping panic. He must try to restore the diplomatic failure on behalf of that country. Thus he picked up the biggest gift that Kim Jong-Un was most concerned of. What is a dictator most concerned about? The first concern is the stability of the throne, with the people's livelihood a distant second. So his elder brother was a gift to the younger brother. Of course, it should be Kim Jong-Un himself who should bear this notoriety, in order to quell the opposing voices within Communist China and North Korea.

Can the Chinese Communist tricks succeed? Not necessarily. I think that Kim Jong-Un wants to learn the way of his grandfather by setting feet on both boats. This is due to his firm belief, but also the traditional survival way of a small country. This will inevitably get the support of the majority of his party and his government. So far, this first step has been successful. The more important would be the second and the third.

It will also be the need of struggle between big countries for the USA to provoke the Sino-DPRK relations. As described in "Art of War": "the top method is through strategy, the second method is through diplomacy." Provoking the enemy's alliances has always been the top priority of diplomacy. There is no reason why the United States should not accept Kim Jong-Un's olive branch, which is more realistic and more effective than provoking Sino-Russian relations. This will directly ease the tension in Northeast Asia and cut off one arm of the Chinese Communist regime.

But Xi Jinping certainly will not give up. There are still a lot of uncertain factors here, such as South Korea; the dictatorial system being influenced by the Western thought; the choice of stepping on both boats or unilaterally relying on only one of them; and so on. It is not as fun to play this game as it is to imagine.

Among all, the biggest uncertainty is whether Kim Jong-Un is willing to give up the lifeline guarantee he thinks he has: the nuclear weapons. He and his men think that with nuclear weapons, the others would not dare to mess with them, thus they could shut the door to misbehave. I'm afraid they are wrong.

Not only the United States, but also China has also recognized the threat against them due to the nuclear weapons of North Korea. Not to mention that the possession of nuclear weapons will make North Korea to be even more reluctant to be a small brother to China. This does not meet China's goals. How the future relationship between these three countries will change will likely make people dazzled.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2017/WeiJS170214onKimJNassassination.mp3

(Written and recorded on February 14, 2017. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A989-W639

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A989-W639

Release Date: February 26, 2017

发布日：2017年2月26日

Topic: Starting With the Talk of Kim Jong-Un's Assassination of His Elder Brother -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：从金正恩杀兄谈起 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2017/report2017-02/WeiJS170226onKimJNassassinationA989-W639.htm

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从金正恩杀兄谈起

-- 魏京生

朝鲜第三代独裁者金正恩被网民们戏称为金三胖。这确实有点冤枉，因为他的祖父和父亲并不那么胖，他的大哥金正男倒是和他差不多胖。本月十三号消息，金正男在马来西亚的吉隆坡机场遇刺身亡。

消息传得很快，媒体上立刻就有了一大批议论。基本上没有人否认是弟弟杀了哥哥，独裁者金正恩杀了王位竞争者。但是媒体上议论弟弟杀了哥哥的也不多，更多的是议论杀人的细节，而且津津乐道。这就有点儿误导舆论，欲盖弥彰的味道了。当然也许多数人是跟风，低级趣味而已。

根据过去的报道，这个哥哥对这个弟弟当了独裁者颇有微词，而且是有关治国能力方面的微词。也是根据过去的报道，金正恩虐杀他的姑夫张成泽，是因为张成泽扶持金正恩上台之后又后悔了，暗中勾结中共，试图扶持金正男代替金正恩。所以金正恩为保权位杀死兄弟之心，古已有之。可惜他的哥哥不住在朝鲜，鞭长莫及。

细心的朋友马上会联想到：为什么这么多年没有杀掉，而今天杀了呢？还是根据过去的报道：中国给这位王位竞争者派了大批的保镖。不要说寻常人难以近身，就是专业的杀手也很难得手。现代安保技术已经不是小说电影里的水平了，杀手这个行业确实面临着失业的危险。

问题马上又来了：从炒作得很热的细节来看，这次暗杀的几种版本，似乎都很传统，甚至有点笨拙。不像是技术含量很高的，组织严密的行动。更像是金庸小说里的古代水平。这又是为什么呢？

至少得来点儿美国大片里的技术含量才说得过去呀。这么简单就成功了，可能有内奸配合吧？谁是内奸呢？也是过去的报道里说过：中共为了保持对朝鲜政局操控的能力，给这位王位竞争者派遣了大批保镖。如果这些保镖不答应，这样传统笨拙的暗杀能成功吗？

所以没有中共的批准和配合，过去虽然金正恩恨得咬牙切齿也无法消灭这个王位竞争者。现在能够轻易得手，正是中共作的内应，是中共政策变化的结果，也是东亚局势有新的变化的前兆。至于中共为什么要作出这样的决策，我们得从另外的角度来观察。

从朝鲜战争的那个年代开始，金太祖日成先生就在中苏两个大国之间搞平衡，得了不少便宜。毛太祖和他的部下们恨得咬牙切齿，却也无可奈何。自从苏联解体失去了平衡，中共就成了金世祖正日的唯一靠山。中共就顺势把朝鲜变成了自己的小兄弟，不时让它挑动亚洲的安全局势，以便中共自己从中获利。

这时候就轮到金正日无可奈何了。要维持王朝的体制，就不能学中国那样搞改革开放。而且在朝鲜维持王朝体制更有群众基础，问题就是离不开靠山。可他的儿子不太一样，现在的朝鲜民众也不一样了。而且总让中国当猴儿耍，从西方留学回来的第三代也不甘心。这就是近年来中朝关系不稳，习近平大有抛弃这个小兄弟之心的原因。也因此，小兄弟也大生外心，不断向宿敌美国抛橄榄枝，试图开启直接谈判。

过去的形势，共产党可以通过资本家来买通美国政治。美国坚决不接受朝鲜的橄榄枝，把朝鲜钉死在中国的战车上。这是美国大企业和共产党的交易条件之一。可是现在的美国总统改变了策略，在竞选时就放话说：可以和北朝鲜单独谈判。

这一下习近平慌神了。面临着失去代理国的外交失败，必需尽力挽回。那就捡金正恩最关心的大包子送个礼吧。独裁者最关心的是什么呢，第一件就是王位的稳固，国计民生那还都在其次。于是哥哥就被当作礼物送给了弟弟，当然还要让弟弟自己出手担这个恶名，以便平息中共和朝鲜内部的反对声音。

共产党的诡计能够得逞吗？我看未必。金正恩想学他的爷爷脚踩两只船，这既是他的坚定信念，也是传统的小国生存之道。这必然会得到党内政府内大多数人的支持，而且这第一步就已经成功了。答完了第一道题，第二、第三道题就是最重要的了。

而美国挑拨中朝关系，也是大国间斗争的必要。上兵伐谋，次者伐交。挑拨敌方联盟关系，历来就是外交的重中之重。美国没有理由不接受金正恩的橄榄枝，这比挑拨中俄关系更现实，更有效。这将直接缓和东北亚的紧张局势，削掉了中共一条臂膀。

不过习近平肯定不会死心。这里边还有很多不确定的因素。例如韩国的因素；独裁体制受到西方思想影响的因素；是脚踩两只船还是单边投靠的选择等等。并不是想像中的那么好玩。

其中最大的不确定因素，就是金正恩是否愿意放弃他自以为的生命线，核武器的问题。他和他的部下们都以为，有了核武器别人就不敢惹他们了，就可以关起门来胡作非为了。这一点恐怕他们想错了。

不但美国，就是中国也已经认识到朝鲜的核武器对自己的威胁。何况拥有核武器之后朝鲜就更不愿意当小兄弟了。这也不符合中国的目标。今后三方的关系如何变化，估计会看得大家眼花缭乱。