Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A998-W647

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A998-W647

Release Date: March 19, 2017

发布日：2017年3月19日

Topic: Will the World Let China Define the Rules? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：世界将由中国来制定规则吗？-- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Will the World Let China Define the Rules?

-- Wei Jingsheng

The National People's Congress and The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference just finished in China were conferences to make attendees drowsy. "Conference" in Chinese means "meet and discussion". However, generally speaking, during these two conferences there would be only "meet", but without "discussion". We see that proposals by several delegates were deleted without explanation. They were so angry but were only able to complain to the reporters outside. Likely they would not dare to complain in the conference, as it would not be the place they could talk and move at their wish.

How could people get interested at these drowsy conferences? Thus a lot of things that were to avoid the attention of the people happened. This is called "operating the black box during a public conference," just as described in the movies we watched in China that portrayed the invasion of the Japanese soldiers as: "moving into the village quietly, without a single gunshot."

So what happened during these two conferences behind doors? I only discovered some happenings after reading the reports about the two conferences. First I read the comments by Premier Li Keqiang: China attending the conference in Chili was not to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership that is commonly known as TPP. Premier Li's argument was that we do not do things beyond our abilities.

This was the first time I sat up and took notice. Of course there are some people within the Communist regime that have clear minds. But for a Chinese premier to occasionally understand once is quite rare since Zhu Rongji. Especially because Li Keqiang, who has always been considered as a suppressed little daughter-in-law, now actually dared to rebut the overbearing mother-in-law (Xi Jinping) really made me surprised.

Why do I say that? It is because the ambition of Xi Jinping to dominate the world and to define rules has been exposed for a long time. Even during these two conferences, Xi Jinping reaffirmed his ambition to take over the TPP. When two gods speak in different caliber, little followers are forced to choose sides and take risks with their bosses. Thus, we see the different caliber between the spokesperson for the State Council and the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. One said that we will not do things beyond our capacity, while the other expressed that we are willing to give active consideration and making consultations with everyone regarding China taking over TPP affairs.

Now we have a good show. As the Chinese proverb says: there are no two suns in the sky at the same time, and there are no two leaders for the country. How could an autocratic dictatorship system get two masters? So what Wang Qishan said makes sense: we will resolutely maintain the status of the core leadership of Xi Jinping, without wavering. The firmness of his attitude, is as to smash someone's dog head if that someone does not follow. Regarding this resolute maintenance of the one-party dictatorship system to avoid its collapse, Wang Qishan has a rather clear mind.

But which of these two people are right? If one was wrong, would it be insignificant or an earthquake? They did scare Taiwan with an earth-shaking sentence, yet that bluster has not yet been honored. Would the error of wanting to make a great achievement also be earthshaking? Let me give you a rough analysis.

First look at why the United States wanted to withdraw from the TPP. It was because the TPP only changes the name without changing the essence, which continue the trade rules of some unsuccessful free trade agreement of the past. These agreements were developed after World War II, guided by the Americans' self-esteem in the need of helping the allies to restore their economy. The purpose was to let the Allied countries gain some advantage to speed up their economic recovery, to catch up to the hostile Soviet camp in the peaceful competition.

But the rules were easy to define but difficult to change. Europe has already caught up with the US level, even if they still get some smaller advantages which are very limited. The emerging countries did not get that much advantage either. Besides Japan which would always take advantages, the others did not make Americans feel so disadvantaged to the degree to change the rules. Although there were people who talked about unfairness, the public could barely understand these long essays which are difficult to understand. Most people could not understand the loss of the interests of a few people as being important. Most people felt life had been good to them.

But twenty years ago a giant tyrant shown up. Its size was several times the entire Soviet camp. Its Oriental characteristics of always taking advantages was more than Japans. It also got the trade conditions which allowed it to take advantage. Thus it dumps shoddy cheap goods on the US market, like draining the water in the pond for fishing. The USA now felt this excessive blood transfusion, and cannot afford it anymore.

In the past two decades, the people of the United States have been feeling more and more pain from the recession. This is the root reason that Donald Trump won this election. Americans' voices against the unfair free trade are getting louder and louder. Quitting the TPP is just the beginning of righting a wrong that exceeds the proper limit. It will be followed by making troubles for Xi Jinping. However, Xi does not think so. He believes it is his chance to take over when President Trump retreated from the TPP. Now, so-called Daddy Xi in China could be a Daddy in foreign countries as well.

But the reality may make him disappointed. The United States could take charge and provide blood transfusion to its little brothers, because it has a super strong economy and half of the world market. This situation is like how China was during its Song Dynasty when it could arrogantly use money to buy more than one hundred years of peace, and to help the little brothers without any hesitation. Even so, too much blood transfusion cannot be maintained forever.

Let us view it from another point of view: why do those countries so eagerly want to join TPP? That is because they get advantages. Otherwise, why should they? President Obama had talked for so many years without result, because even the USA does not have too much advantage for others to take. The agreement will not be agreed on when there is not enough advantage. When a small country plays the rogue, it could be fierce. The Chinese people have seen it as well.

Now President Trump said that he would not play with these hooligans. He wants renew the play only according to rules. Xi Jinping foolishly thinks that the opportunity has arrived for him to dig at the corner of the US imperialism. Evidence is that Japan is still helplessly holding this TPP high. Why doesn't China seize this opportunity?

If China seizes this opportunity, Japan will rush back. That is because it cannot deal with those poor countries which anxiously want to take advantage, or those poor countries which will win in majority to force you provide blood transfusion. Japan is smart as a monkey and will immediately run away when it realize a bad situation. This will leave Xi Jinping alone. How would he deal with his poor brothers of the third world?

If Xi Jinping threw them away, then all his previous homework becomes a total waste, in addition to spending a lot of money to buy curses. Then these countries will continue hold onto the big legs of the USA. Indeed he does not have as big legs as the USA, and does not have as big a market as the USA. Eventually Xi Jinping will finish with his head bumped and bleeding, if the Chinese economy has not collapsed.

It seems that the core leadership of Xi Jinping indeed is wrong this time. So let Premier Li take his pride this time. After all, he was suppressed for a time long enough.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2017/WeiJS170316onWorldTradeRules.mp3

(Written and recorded on March 16, 2017. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A998-W647

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A998-W647

Release Date: March 19, 2017

发布日：2017年3月19日

Topic: Will the World Let China Define the Rules? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：世界将由中国来制定规则吗？-- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2017/report2017-03/WeiJS170319onWorldTradeRulesA998-W647.htm

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世界将由中国来制定规则吗？

-- 魏京生

两会本来就是一个让人昏昏欲睡的所谓会议。一般来说只有会没有议，只许老老实实，不许乱说乱动。这不，又有几个委员代表们被删除了议案还不带解释，气得只能在会场外向记者们发牢骚。在会场内估计他们不敢，那是个只能老老实实，不许乱说乱动的地方。

这样昏昏欲睡的会议，怎么能提得起人们的兴趣呢？于是很多事情就在避开老百姓眼神的地方发生了。这就叫公开的会议，黑箱的操作，好像是电影里的鬼子进村：悄悄地，打枪地不要。

这次两会暗地里发生了什么呢？我也是看了会后的报道才发现。先看见的是李克强总理的说法：去智利开会不是要参加跨太平洋协议，也就是俗称的TPP。李总理的说法是：我们不做超出我们能力的事情。

这可是第一次让我刮目相看，中共里边有明白人是肯定的，中国的总理也偶尔明白一次，倒是自从朱熔基以来少见。而且一向被认为受压制的小媳妇，居然也敢顶撞霸道的婆婆，确实大大出乎我的意料之外。

为什么这么说呢？这是因为习近平称霸世界制定规则的野心，早已经公开化很久了。而且就在会议期间还再次重申了要接管TPP的雄心壮志。这两位大神的口径不一样，害得小跟班的不得不选边站，跟着老板冒风险。于是就有了国务院发言人和外交部发言人的口径不对：一个说我们不会去做我们能力所不及的事情，参加会议和TPP没关系；另一个说我们愿意就接管TPP的事务和大家磋商，正在积极考虑。

这下可有好戏看了。俗话说天无二日，国无二主，一个专制独裁的体制怎么能有两个主子呢？所以王岐山说的也对：坚决维护习核心的地位不动摇。其语态的坚定，就差谁不维护就砸烂他的狗头了。在坚决维护一党专政体制不垮台的问题上，王岐山头脑还是比较清醒的。

但是，他们俩到底谁对呢？如果错了，是无足轻重还是地动山摇呢？吓唬台湾的那一句地动山摇，现在还没兑现。好大喜功造成的错误，是不是也会地动山摇呢？我给大家粗略地分析一下。

首先来看看美国为什么要退出TPP呢？那是因为TPP换汤不换药，在贸易规则上延续了过去不成功的一些自由贸易协议。这些协议是在二次大战后，在美国人的自大心理主导下制定的，在帮助盟国恢复经济的政治需要下制定的。目的就是让盟国占点小便宜，加快经济复苏，在和平竞赛中超越敌对的苏联阵营。

但是规则好订不好改。欧洲已经赶上了美国的水平，即使占点便宜也很有限。后起的新兴国家也都不太大，除了日本占便宜没够之外，其它的也没让美国人肉疼到了非要改规矩的地步。虽然也有人嚷嚷不公平，可是大众并不能理解学者那晦涩难懂的长篇大论，多数人也不能理解少数人利益损失是为什么。多数人觉得大家不都过得好好的嘛。

可是二十年前来了一个巨毋霸。其体量比整个苏联阵营都大几倍；占便宜没够的东方品性和日本一样，还有过之而无不及；而且也拿到了准许占便宜的贸易条件。于是就用粗制滥造的廉价商品对美国市场竭泽而渔；而美国也立刻感到输血过量，承受不起了。

最近二十年来美国人民越来越能感受到经济衰退带来的肉疼了。这就是川普能当上总统的根本原因。美国人民反对不公平的自由贸易的声音越来越大，退出TPP只是矫枉过正的开始，下一步就是收拾习近平了。不过习近平不这样看，他认为川普退出TPP是个机会。习大大可以到外国也当一回大大了。

不过现实可能让小习很失望。美国可以当老大并且给小兄弟们输血，那是因为它有超级雄厚的经济实力，有当时占世界一半的市场。这就像宋朝一样可以牛比烘烘的拿钱买一百多年的和平，提携一下小兄弟不在话下。即便如此，现在输血太多也维持不下去了。

换一个角度说，人家那些小国为什么眼巴巴的要加入TPP呢？就是因为要占便宜，没便宜谁干呀？奥巴马谈了那么多年都没谈下来，就是因为美国也没有多少便宜可以让人占了。可是不给足了便宜就谈不拢。小国耍起流氓来有多猛，中国人民也不是没见过。

现在川普说，不和你们这帮流氓玩了。要玩重新按规矩来。习近平傻乎乎地以为机会来了，可以挖一挖美帝国主义的墙角了。论据就是日本不还在眼巴巴的要撑起那个TPP吗。为什么我们不抓住这个机会呢？

等你抓住了，日本就会急流勇退了。因为它对付不了那些直眉瞪眼急着要占便宜的穷国，或者那些穷国以多胜少，强迫你输血。日本精得跟猴子似的，一看不好立刻就跑。剩下你习近平怎么对付第三世界的穷哥们呢？

你甩下他们，以前的功课就全白做了，外带大撒币还找骂。然后大家继续去抱人家美国的粗腿，确实你没有人家的腿粗，没有人家的市场大。最终习近平碰得头破血流下台完事，如果中国经济还没崩溃的话。

看来这次习核心确实错了，就让人家李总理也扬眉吐气一次吧。人家憋得也够久了。