Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1045-W683

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1045-W683

Release Date: September 13, 2017

发布日：2017年9月13日

Topic: To Make a Cocoon to Bind Oneself -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：作茧自缚 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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To Make a Cocoon to Bind Oneself

-- Wei Jingsheng

Many friends only read newspaper news, and thus have concluded that the policy mistakes of the USA have resulted in the continuation or acceleration of the development of nuclear weapons by North Korea. This is a typical wrong conclusion when one looks at the evidence yet does not think for oneself. The Chinese students overseas often have learned to be more Americans than Americans, when they take the judgement standard of the court as a general criterion for thinking. This can only be ridiculous.

Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il had thought days and nights to develop nuclear weapons to protect themselves, and even thought to use the nuclear weapons as a deterrent to a unified Korean Peninsula. This is the thinking of a normal mind, and the normal thinking of all dictatorships. If they could not develop nuclear weapons as they wish, what is the concern? Because the United States is unhappy? This is the standard answer that lacks thinking.

The opposition of the international community does not mean anything to the Kim family in North Korea. They do not really care at all. Any reason for them to not do what they wish would be because China and Russia are not happy about it, which does matter to North Korea. So when did they begin to develop nuclear weapons boldly? That was at the critical moment when the Soviet Union collapsed. With Russia in a difficult time and the first generation of Chinese Communist leaders who understood this issue almost all died out, North Korea began to test the development of nuclear weapons.

Although they may be very bad in other aspects, the first generation of Communists at least did know that they should not ask themselves for trouble. If you groom a nuclear-weapon country at your own door step, then you are making trouble for yourself. This is like sending a gun to a rogue neighbor; maybe he will shoot at someone else, but you may also got shot at. This folly is to add risk to oneself, just like making a cocoon to bind oneself.

Since Jiang Zemin took over the power in China, the pro-North Korea clique in China which was bought out and trained by North Korea has started rising to the degree that it has a say regarding North Korea issues. The slogan of brotherhood-like friendship between China and North Korea has become policy in China. Letting the little brother guard the Korean peninsula as a buffer zone, while acting as a rogue in East Asia, also became a theory that has been implemented by the Chinese Communist Party.

At this time, with the help of China, North Korea began to develop nuclear weapons and missile technology, as well as to help China to continue its conduct of tactical nuclear weapons tests. This period of North Korean missiles basically are replicas of the Chinese missiles, even the vehicles used to drag the missiles are Chinese models.

Jiang Zemin lacks the experience of the gangsters and thinks that he can effectively control North Korea's nuclear weapons development. Tricked by the pro-North Korea faction, Jiang believed that North Korea will be comfortable to act as a little brother. So he deliberately designed the so-called six-party talks, to fool the US government with the help of Western companies, in order to develop nuclear weapons for North Korea to gain advantage of time.

When North Korea entered a stage of independent development of nuclear weapons, it got dissatisfied with China's use of the nuclear issue in North Korea to extract diplomatic benefits. To want to squeeze more benefits out of China and the United States is normal thinking for the diplomacy of a small country. So North Korea refused the six-party talks and repeatedly tried to negotiate with the United States alone.

With the rich international political experience of the USA, of course it sees very clearly of this as a trick of "dividing first then dealing with separately," without sincerity. The young heir Kim Jong-un does not have the patience to continue dealing as before. He believes that the completion of nuclear weapons development will force the world to recognize his nuclear-state status, which would be the full condition for him to continue his blackmail. This Western-educated dictator indeed has learned a lot of things.

After a few years, or even only a year or two, when Kim Jong-un has achieved his desire, what will he do? He will oppress South Korea for the unity of the peninsula step by step. This is the prospect that the United States, Japan and other countries cannot tolerate. For sure Japan and South Korea will rapidly develop their own nuclear weapons under the tacit consent of the United States, to reach an equal deterrence.

If Japan and South Korea develop their nuclear weapons, then Taiwan has even more reason to develop nuclear weapons. By then, the ideal of "liberating Taiwan" will have an even greater risk. The lies that have fooled several generations will be completely broken in front of the Chinese people.

With a nuclear madman surrounded by a circle of nuclear countries, the probability of the outbreak of nuclear war is greatly raised. The democratic politics in the other countries are relatively stable; but the authoritarian politics in China are becoming more and more unstable. When the nuclear madman himself finds it difficult to continue, he will look around for a target to blackmail. China is the best target of his nuclear blackmail.

Even if Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan do not have nuclear weapons, under the nuclear umbrella of the United States they are still hard bones to chew on for Kim Jong-un. He certainly does not dare to provoke Russia. Thus China becomes the only target that he can show off his martial arts to kick at. Blackmailing for more money would be his minimum goal. Otherwise, he would have a hard time ahead. As to what kind of tricks he will resort to, we may have a hard time imagining; they could be anything. That is because he is a true wolf without a heart. As a rogue, he needs to survive as well.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2017/WeiJS170909onNorthKorea.mp3

(Written and recorded on September 9, 2017. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1045-W683

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1045-W683

Release Date: September 13, 2017

发布日：2017年9月13日

Topic: To Make a Cocoon to Bind Oneself -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：作茧自缚 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2017/report2017-09/WeiJS170913onNorthKoreaA1045-W683.htm

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作茧自缚

-- 魏京生

很多朋友只看报纸新闻，因而做出了结论，说是因为美国的政策失误，才造成了北朝鲜继续或者加快发展核武器。这就是典型的只看证据却不思考做出的错误结论。中国留学生往往要学得比美国人还要更美国人，结果就错把法庭判断标准，作为了思考问题的普遍标准。这只能是错得离谱。

北朝鲜金家日成、正日两父子日思夜想发展核武器以自保，甚至作为统一朝鲜半岛的威慑工具。这是一种正常的思维，也是所有独裁政权的正常思维。他们不能随心所欲地发展核武器，所顾虑的是什么？是美国不高兴吗？这就是不思考的标准答案。

国际社会反对，在金家人看来一钱不值，他们根本就无所谓。他们不能随心所欲，是因为他们必须有所谓的中苏两国不高兴。那么他们什么时候开始大胆发展核武器了呢？是在苏联垮台，俄罗斯正在困难时期，而中国的第一代明白的共产党死得差不多的关键时刻，开始试探着发展核武器了。

第一代的共产党人，其它方面可能很坏，但至少还明白不要给自己找麻烦。如果在家门口培养出一个核武器国家，那是你自己的麻烦。就像给流氓邻居送去一把枪，可能会打到别人，但也可能打到你自己。这是给自己增加危险，作茧自缚。

江泽民继承大位之后，朝鲜收买培养的亲朝派开始水涨船高，到了可以说得上话的地位。中朝兄弟友谊从口号变成了政策。让小兄弟守卫朝鲜半岛充当缓冲区，同时充当东亚搅屎棍，也就成为了被中共执行的理论。

就是在这个时间点，朝鲜在中国的帮助下开始研发核武器和导弹技术，同时也在帮助中国继续进行战术核武器试验。这时期的朝鲜导弹，基本上是中国导弹的复制品，连牵引车都是中国的型号。

江泽民缺乏黑帮老大的经验教训，以为可以对朝鲜的核武器开发进行有效控制；在亲朝派的忽悠之下，他以为朝鲜人会安于充当小兄弟。所以特意设计出所谓的六方会谈，在西方大企业的协助下忽悠美国政府，以便为朝鲜发展核武器争取时间。

当朝鲜进入到可以自主发展核武器的阶段之后，它就对中国利用朝核问题诈取外交利益的做法不满意了。想在中美之间榨取更多利益，这是一种小国外交的正常思维。所以朝鲜拒绝了六方会谈，一再试探和美国单独谈判。

以美国丰富的国际政治经验，当然看得很清楚；这不过是分而治之的小把戏，并无诚意。年轻的继承人金正恩也没有耐心继续周旋，他认为完成核武器发展，迫使全世界承认他的核国家地位，才是他继续讹诈的充分条件。这个西方培养的独裁者，确实学了不少东西。

再拖上几年，甚至不过一两年，金正恩的愿望达成之后，他会做什么呢？他会压迫韩国，一步步地走向半岛统一。这是美日等国不能容忍的前景。日本和韩国必然在美国的默许之下，迅速发展自己的核武器，进行对等威慑。

日韩两国可以发展核武器，台湾就更有理由发展核武器了。届时解放台湾的理想就有了更大的风险，说了几代人的大忽悠，在中国老百姓面前就彻底破了产。

一圈核国家包围着一个核疯子，爆发核大战的几率大大提高。其它国家的民主政治相对稳定；只有中国的专制政治越来越不稳定。当核疯子自己难以为继，四处寻找讹诈目标的时候，中国才是他核讹诈的最佳目标。

即使日、韩、台还不拥有核武器，在美国的核保护伞之下，对金正恩来说也是硬骨头。俄罗斯他肯定不敢招惹，中国就成了唯一可以施展拳脚的对象。多诈出一些钱财，是起码的目标。否则小金自己也熬不住呀。至于会使出什么招数，就只有我们想不出来的，没有他做不出来的。因为他是个白眼狼呀，流氓也要生存嘛。