Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1080-W717
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1080-W717
Release
Date: January 28, 2018
发布日：2018年1月28日
Topic:
Mainland China to Unify with Taiwan By Force? "A Psychological War"
Turns Into "An Actual War" (RFA Cantonese report)
标题：武统台湾？「心战」转向「实战」(自由亚洲电台粤语部报道)
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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Mainland
China to Unify with Taiwan By Force? "A Psychological War" Turns Into
"An Actual War"
--
Reported by Radio Free Asia Cantonese service
2018-01-23
In
Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen said for the first time "that the Mainland
China will not rule out the use of force to attack Taiwan." In Mainland China, President Xi Jinping
ordered troops to set up drills during the new year 2018. Within a month, the East China Sea Fleet
conducted a simulated landing exercise "Strait Vader" against
Taiwan. The saying went rampant
that Mainland China will unify with Taiwan by 2020. Overseas Chinese pro-democracy activists say that the
strategy of the Communists on Taiwan may change from a "psychological
war" to an "actual war." (Ma Like/He Shan report)
Regarding
whether the current military strength of the Chinese Communist regime is enough
to take over Taiwan, reporters interviewed the former Chinese naval commander
Yao Cheng, now living in New York, and Wei Jingsheng, chairman of the Overseas
Chinese Democracy Coalition. Both
of them clearly stated that with the current military strength of the Eastern
Theater Command, together with some of the military strength of the Southern Theater
Command of the People's Liberation Army (i.e. PLA), to land and occupy the
entire island of Taiwan can already be done with the current capabilities of
the Communist regime.
Former
naval commander Yao Cheng said: Recently, the Central Military Commission of
the Communist Party specifically held a meeting on military drills. Xi Jinping said during that meeting
that the PLA should have an imaginary enemy during its drill process. So the imaginary enemy of the East
China Sea Fleet is Taiwan!
Yao
Cheng said that the destroyers and frigates of the East China Sea Fleet have
all set up detachments with an increased number of ships. Since Xi Jinping has presided over the
military reform, the Navy has deployed a new configuration for a war against Taiwan. Recently, the Chinese Navy even
reported on the new equipment in a continuous high-profile manner. Yao Cheng said that the basis for the
cross-sea operations against Taiwan will be in the form of detachments of
frigates. Thus the Communist
regime even showcased its Type 056 Missile Corvette.
According
to the official media in Mainland China, the Type 056 Corvette equipped with
361 type improved search radar and was the first to install a second-generation
combat command system domestically made in China. However, considering the rapid research and development of
China's naval equipment, much of which is questioned as being from stolen
secrets and assembled. What is the
actual combat capacity of the naval formation of Mainland China?
Yao
Cheng introduced: the development of the fleet has been very fast, with the new
Type 056 Corvette weaponry, which stepped from 051-052-053-054-055 to 056; but
there will be a process for the combat tactical capacity to form, which
absolutely has not formed yet. So
now what there is basically is a pretty vase for a showcase.
Wei
Jingsheng pointed out that after the 19th Congress of the Communist Party, Xi
Jinping completed its transition to collect all the power to move towards
authoritarian control of the military.
Whether China will use the military against Taiwan now, or try to take
over Taiwan with military force by 2020, is largely determined by the personal
will of Xi Jinping. It is also
related to the military forces in the Mainland, especially as the Central
Theater Command has recently issued a series of aggressive moves toward
Taiwan. Wei Jingsheng said: In the
past, the Communist regime would not take military action against Taiwan. However, due to recent international
and domestic developments, now Xi Jinping does have the mind to really take
that action.
Wei
Jingsheng said: From various indicators, it certainly has an absolute advantage
and could take over Taiwan by using only part of the military forces of the
Communist regime.
Wei
Jingsheng analyzed that if the United States goes to strike North Korea,
Communist China may want to attack Taiwan, which would force the United States
had to fight on both fronts.
Wei
Jingsheng said: This time the situation is slightly different, because the
United States is now eager to take action toward the nuclear weapons of North
Korea. The Chinese Communists
apparently dared not clash with the U.S. forces before; but now they will have
the tactic of if you hit North Korea then I hit Taiwan. So this time it really gets a little
dangerous.
Mainland
China's will to take over Taiwan with the military has never changed by its
official propaganda. Insiders say
that the Eastern Theater Command has been brainstorming its officers and
soldiers with political thought, of which the principle of "must liberate
Taiwan" has never relaxed. It
is not impossible for them to change from "psychological war" to
"actual war" to takeover Taiwan with armed forces. However, some analysts also point out
that a forced unification with Taiwan by the military by 2020 would be a very
stupid strategy for Xi Jinping.
The
U.S. Defense Department issued a national defense strategy last week, which
shows that the focus of its national defense has shifted from fighting terrorism
to confronting China and Russia.
The US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, who is on a visit to Indonesia,
said that the United States respects the sovereignty of Asian countries and
believes that no one can impose its own power on other countries' economic,
diplomatic and security decisions.
The Pacific should be peaceful and shared.
Original
link of this report by the RFA Cantonese service:
https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/news/navy-01232018092227.html
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1080-W717
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1080-W717
Release
Date: January 28, 2018
发布日：2018年1月28日
Topic:
Mainland China to Unify with Taiwan By Force? "A Psychological War"
Turns Into "An Actual War" (RFA Cantonese report)
标题：武统台湾？「心战」转向「实战」(自由亚洲电台粤语部报道)
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-01/ChinaTakeOverTaiwan180128RFAcantoneseA1080-W717.htm
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武统台湾？「心战」转向「实战」
-- 自由亚洲电台粤语部报道
2018-01-23
在台湾，总统蔡英文首次表明「不排除大陆武力攻台」；在大陆，国家主席习近平2018年元旦沙场练兵；不出一个月，东海舰队进行了「海峡尖兵」模拟攻台实战登陆演习。2020年前大陆武统台湾甚嚣尘上，海外的民运人士指，共军对台的战略，正由「心战」向「实战」的可能转变。（马立克/何山
报道）
当下共军的实力能否武统台湾，记者访问现居纽约的前中共海军中校姚诚，以及中国海外民主运动联席主席魏京生。两人均明确表示，共军东部战区加上部分南部战区的军事力量，武力攻台、登陆占领台湾全岛，以共军目前的能力，已经可以做到。
前海军中校姚诚说︰最近中央军委专门就军事训练问题专门开了会，习近平在上面有一个讲话，中共的军队在训练过程中有一个假想敌。那么东海舰队的假想敌，就是台湾！
姚诚指，东海舰队的驱逐舰、护卫舰各成立了支队，舰艇数量不断增加。习近平主持军队改革以来，海军对台作战有了新配置，海军近期还连续高调报导了新装备。姚诚说，对台跨海作战的基础在护卫舰编队，官方为此展示了056轻型导弹护卫舰。
根据大陆官媒介绍，056轻护配有361改进型搜索雷达，首装了国産第二代作战指挥系统。不过，近年中国海军装备研发之快，众多过程被质疑是偷凑起来，舰艇编队的实战军力如何？
姚诚介绍说︰它的新式武器056护卫舰，包括从051-052-053-054-055到056，舰艇发展非常快，但是形成战斗力它还有个过程，但绝对没有形成战斗力。所以他们现在这个基本上属于是摆花架子。
魏京生就指，十九大后的习近平在军队完成了集权独裁过渡。现时对台动不动武，是否2020年前武统台湾，很大程度上取决于习近平的个人意志；也关系到最近大陆军方，尤其是中部战区对台发出了一系列咄咄逼人的态势。魏京生说，中共以前不可能动手，就近期的国际、国内局势发展，让习近平有了真正动手的念头。
魏京生说︰你从各种指标上看，它当然是绝对有优势，绰绰有馀，它动用一部分就可以把台湾拿下来了。
魏京生分析，美国要打朝鲜，中共就可能要打台湾。迫使美国不得不两线作战。
魏京生说︰这次情况略有不同，因为美国现在跃跃欲试要对北朝鲜的核武器下手；中共显然不敢跟美军冲突，那么他们就有一个策略，你打北朝鲜我打台湾。所以这一次确实是有一点危险了。
大陆武统台湾的战争意志，根据官方口径从没改变过。行内人说，东部战区对官兵的政治思想洗脑，「一定要解放台湾」从来没有放松过。武统台湾正由「心理战」转变成「实战」非不可能；不过，也有分析指，2020年前武统台湾，会是习近平一个很「愚蠢」的策略。
美国国防部上周发表了国防战略，表明国防重点从反恐转向对抗中俄。正在印尼出访的国防部长马蒂斯表示，美国尊重亚洲国家的主权，相信任何人都不能把自己的强权施加于别国的经济、外交和安全决策上，太平洋应该和平与共享的太平洋。
自由亚洲电台粤语部报道的原始链接：
https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/news/navy-01232018092227.html
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