Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1077-W714

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1077-W714

Release Date: January 20, 2018

发布日：2018年1月20日

Topic: Strange Tales in the New Year (part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：新年聊斋（之二） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Strange Tales in the New Year (part 2)

-- Wei Jingsheng

Last time we talked about internal struggles within the Chinese Communist Party. I also predicted that 2018 would be a year of fierce fighting. So what kind of impact will this kind of internal fight against each other have on the international affairs? We must first understand what are the major international issues in 2018 that are related to China.

Since Xi Jinping got power, he has changed the international strategy of Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin. Deng Xiaoping soberly realized that China was weak and therefore changed the strategy of internationalist adventuring of the Mao Zedong era. The general comments called it "keeping a low profile" which is a strategy that applied to weak countries in ancient Chinese military strategy.

Xi Jinping was flattered by those brown nosing him. So he thinks that China as a superpower should go directly against the United States as a rivalry. As soon as he first came to power, he wanted to make trouble in the surroundings territories. Now and then he shows this attitude of a superpower and then boasts himself inside China, to meet his fragile vanity.

Unfortunately, he is now facing the revolt of the little brother of North Korea and appears helpless. As he got sandwiched and has been attacked by both Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, he does not know how to respond. This has the majority of people laughing their teeth off, or a fashionable saying is "stunned". It turns out that he only appears strong outside but inside he is an embroidery pillow.

In order to get rid of China's control and the hostility of the United States, the Kim family in North Korea worked hard to develop nuclear weapons and missile delivery vehicles. This offended the bottom line of the United States, Japan, South Korea, etc, who want to put this to an end. Recently, the chubby Kim Jong-un is crossing the red line of nuclear-armed countries in an attempt to legalize its possession of nuclear weapons. This is the bottom line that the United States, Japan and South Korea absolutely cannot tolerate. In addition to peaceful means, the Trump administration has repeatedly stressed the intention of using force to eliminate North Korea's nuclear weapons. The prelude curtain for war is slowly being pulled open irreversibly.

There are so many people inside China arrogantly clamoring for the second Korean War, thus to set China's hegemony in East Asia and the world. Partly this attitude is due to wrong thinking, a mentality that goes back to the Mao Zedong era. They think that if they are singing (the revolutionary song) of "Who Are Afraid of Whom in This World?" loud enough, and if they "rely on the spirit of not fear of hardship and death", then they will triumph with victory. This part is the descendant of Ah Q (a famous character who lies to himself in Chinese literature).

The other part of these people is truly scary. These are clear-minded corrupted officials who took bribery from Kim Jong-un, and are trying their best to protect this Kim dynasty. The public opinion they created has not only fooled the Ah Q's in China, but also fooled Western scholars who think a war with China would inevitable with uncertain victory if they used force to resolve North Korea's nuclear weapons.

Will China really defend nuclear weapons in North Korea? This is a false proposition. China itself knows what targets North Korea's nuclear weapons have posed a threat to, and has repeatedly stated that it wants North Korea to stop its nuclear weapons and missile tests. Because Chinese government is accustomed to making false statements, this time its words are also considered as lies. This is just like "the boy who cried wolf" by Aesop. However, Xi Jinping's attitude of swinging from one end to another is indeed suspicious.

Since China's war against Vietnam, and after the two Gulf Wars of the United States, most Chinese military personnel have known that with the equipment level of China they can not defeat the U.S. military simply by their bravery. To help North Korea, to initiate a war that for sure will be defeated, that eventually would lead to the collapse of the Chinese Communist regime, is only a choice of a fool. Not to mention the two military reforms by Xi Jinping have made the militarily unstable with chaotic structures. At this time the Chinese military is not suitable for going abroad to fight wars.

However, Xi Jinping may have a thought of conspiracy to take advantage of the USA while it is at war against North Korea, without enough capacity to get involved in another war, to initiate the effort to "liberate Taiwan". This will not need much effort, yet establish a great merit for him, thus accomplish his Chinese Dream of history. Is it beautiful?

Taiwanese people will surely fight against their enemies and resist an invasion from the Communist regime. As mentioned above, the instability of the moral in the Chinese military, as well as the chaos in its structure, coupled with the unwillingness of friends and relatives of the victimized military personnel to sacrifice their lives for Xi Jinping, will result in all the internal conflicts within the CCP exploding, which would be the beginning of the collapse of the Communist regime.

The people of Taiwan will suffer greatly, and the CCP regime will fall apart, but the eventual benefit is more than the harm. Now let us watch and to see if Xi Jinping is willing to dig this trap for himself and fall into it.

Original link of the RFA commentary:

http://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01112018154814.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2018/WeiJS180110onStrangeTales2.mp3

(Written and recorded on January 10, 2018. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1077-W714

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1077-W714

Release Date: January 20, 2018

发布日：2018年1月20日

Topic: Strange Tales in the New Year (part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：新年聊斋（之二） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-01/WeiJS180120onStrangeTales2A1077-W714.htm

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新年聊斋之二

-- 魏京生

上一次咱们讲了党内斗争，预测2018年将是龙争虎斗的一年。那么这种互相拆台的内部斗争，对国际事务会有什么样的影响呢？我们首先要了解一下，2018年对中国来说有些什么重要的国际事务和中国有关。

习近平上台以来，改变了邓小平和江泽民时期的国际战略。邓小平清醒地认识到中国实力薄弱，因此改变了毛泽东时期的国际主义冒险战略。一般评论称之为韬光养晦，是中国古代兵法里适用于弱国的战略。

习近平被马屁精们吹捧得有点飘飘然，以为自己终于成了超级大国，可以和美国较较劲了。于是从一上台开始，就跃跃欲试在周边找事儿，不时显示一下大国的范儿，然后在国内吹吹牛，满足一下他那脆弱的虚荣心。

遗憾的是他现在面对着小兄弟的反叛而束手无策，被金三胖和川普两面夹击，腹背受敌，手足无措。这让广大吃瓜群众笑掉了大牙，或者时髦的说法叫做大跌眼镜：原来就是个外强中干的绣花枕头呀。

金家父子为了摆脱中国的控制和美国的敌视，努力发展核武器和导弹运载工具。这就触犯了美、日、韩等国的底线，必欲除之而后快。最近金三胖正在冲击拥核国家的红线，试图将拥有核武器合法化。这是美、日、韩等国绝对不能容忍的底线。除了和平手段以外，川普政府已经多次强调了使用武力，消灭朝鲜核武器的意图。战争的序幕正在无可挽回地慢慢拉开。

中国内部有那么一批人在狂妄地叫嚣：打第二次朝鲜战争，树立中国在东亚和世界的霸权。这些人的一部分是脑子进水，或者时光倒流回到了毛泽东时代，高唱什么现在世界上究竟谁怕谁。他们以为靠着一不怕苦，二不怕死的精神就可以胜利了。这部分是阿Q的后代。

另外一部分人才是真正可怕的，这就是头脑清醒的拿着金三胖的贿赂，死保金家王朝的腐败分子。他们制造的舆论不但忽悠了中国的阿Q党，而且忽悠了西方的学者们，以为武力解决朝鲜核武器，就必定会与中国一战，胜负也未可知。

中国真的会死保朝鲜核武器吗？这是个伪命题。中国自己知道朝鲜的核武器对谁构成了威胁，不断声明希望朝鲜停止核武器和导弹试验。因为中国习惯于说假话，所以这次也被认为是假话。就像那个狼来了的故事一样。但习近平的态度左摇右摆，确实让人生疑。

自从中国对越南的战争后，和美国的两次海湾战争后，大部分中国军人都知道以中国的装备水平，仅仅依靠不怕死，不可能和美军一战，战则必败。为了朝鲜去打一场必败的战争，最终导致政权崩溃，只有傻瓜才会做这种愚蠢的选择。何况习近平的两次军改，搞得军心不稳，结构混乱。近期内军队不适合出国作战，战则必败。

但是习近平可能有一个小心眼，就是趁美国和朝鲜打得不可开交之际，腾不出手来打第二场战争之际，来个乘虚而入，解放台湾。这下子既不用付很大的代价，又可以立一个大功，圆了名垂青史的中国梦。岂不美哉乐哉?

但台湾人民必将会同仇敌忾，誓死抵抗中共的入侵。如上所述，军心不稳，结构混乱，再加上受害军人的亲朋好友不愿给习近平卖命，这仗如果开打，各种内部矛盾必将大爆发，就是中共崩溃的开始。

台湾人民会深受其害，中共政权土崩瓦解，最终还是利大于害。就看习近平愿不愿意往这个圈套里钻了。

魏京生在自由亚洲电台评论的原始链接：

http://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01112018154814.html