Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1092-W729

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1092-W729

Release Date: March 11, 2018

发布日：2018年3月11日

Topic: The Dilemma of Xi Jinping (Part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的困境（之二） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The Dilemma of Xi Jinping (Part 2)

-- Wei Jingsheng

To say that Xi Jinping is in trouble, many people would not believe it. Now even foreign scholars are saying that Xi Jinping's power has reached its peak and he is a dictator. But this is just a superficial phenomenon. It is like a melon soaked in water -- on the surface, it looks very glorious; in fact, it has begun to rot. The same is true of history: a dictatorial system that could not convince the people would begin rot when it reaches its peak.

There have been too many news items recently, so many people have not noticed lesser news. One such is the death of famous public figure Chen Xiaolu. Usually people know that he was the son of Chen Yi, the poet Marshal (of the Communist army). At the most people know that Chen Xiaolu was a celebrity during the Red Guards era. His reputation was similar to that of Kuai Dafu, Han Aijing, Peng Xiaomeng, and Nie Yuanzhen. He was one of the most famous public figures of that era.

However, many people do not know his true side. During the big Communist campaign against the old fashions of China, under the guidance of the police to rob the homes of the Chinese social elite with confiscations and persecution, Chen Xiaolu, a kindhearted young man, once saved people. During the early days of economic reform and opening up in China, he was an active supporter and practitioner of political reform. During the June 4 massacre in 1989, he was in active opposition and a fierce critic afterwards. For this reason, he was investigated and purged.

Chen Xiaolu's identity in recent years is not well known to the outside world. He was a celebrity in the second generation of red politicians, especially a celebrity in the small circle of characters of the Deng Xiaoping family. Recently, Xi Jinping purged this opposition circle that was headed by Deng's family. Xi Jinping detained the grandson-in-law of Deng, dismissed all the titles and positions that Deng's daughter held, and took over the Anbang Insurance company lead by the Deng Family. This was to warn all opponents within the Communist leadership: Do not fight my will to become the emperor, even if you are a member of Deng Xiaoping's family; although the term limit was proposed by Deng Xiaoping, now it is I who is in power. Acting like Mao Zedong, I am even ready to strike Deng Xiaoping and his family when I need to.

The basis of Mao Zedong's dictatorship was the universal personal worship of Mao within and outside the Communist Party. Mao Zedong had his personal charisma, with literary talent, an understanding of history and politics, and indeed played an important role in the establishment of the Communist regime. The half dictatorship of Deng Xiaoping was built on the merits and prestige of the past, but lacked personal charisma and culture. Many people were not convinced of Deng.

What does Xi Jinping have? He does not have credit from the past, thus he could only spread money around the world; he does not have a literary talent yet showers people with the list of the books he read, which is only good for jokes. Therefore it is difficult for others to be convinced of his ability, and it is impossible to worship him. Thus Xi needs to force his way to make himself a dictator by suppressing those who disobeyed. From a historical point of view, this kind of person will end in tragedy.

In recent years, people like to talk about the so-called second generation of red Communists and the second generation of Communist officials. Although once Xi Jinping was black dog as the second generation of wronged official for some time, he is still a legitimate second generation red Communist after the restoration. Supposedly, these offspring of the Communist cadres should be his assistants, or to the least not his enemies.

However, to the surprise of all of us, the case of Chen Xiaolu seems to expose that between Xi Jinping and his natural supporters, there is enmity instead support. It is said that the alleged allies are actually considered to be competitors of Xi's power, so they must be treated as objects of clearing and purging. Also, for the elite who came from the high-level upper class families of the Communist regime, one cannot achieve one's prestige successfully through the grooming effort of the Communist organization.

Just like the controversial successors to the throne in ancient times, in the modern day the dictators who are short of prestige or gradually lose their prestige will meet the general result of being overturned or even directly killed. The family of Xi Jinping is not stupid. In order to avoid this general result, they must do something extraordinary to defend their position of power.

This extraordinary thing has happened in ancient and modern times, with limited number of modes, including the (Emperor) YongZheng model, the Stalin model, and the Mao Zedong model. On the other hand rebels have the models of Hua Guofeng, Wang Jingwei, Lin Biao, etc., which include coups, assassinations, rebellions, and so on.

With the current situation in China where the gap between the rich and the poor is extremely huge, the driving off of the low-end population out of the cities, the rapidly declining of economy, the intensified conflicts both internal and external, and the increase of suppression, are signs of demise. So now some people have awarded Xi Jinping a nickname. This new nickname is called "fast death," which means that when China got Xi Jinping, the death of the Communist regime was accelerated.

Original link of the RFA commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-03072018133150.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2018/WeiJS180306onXiJPdilemma2.mp3

(Written and recorded on March 6, 2018. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1092-W729

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1092-W729

Release Date: March 11, 2018

发布日：2018年3月11日

Topic: The Dilemma of Xi Jinping (Part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的困境（之二） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-03/WeiJS180311onXiJPdilemma2A1092-W729.htm

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习近平的困境（之二）

-- 魏京生

说习近平陷入了困境，很多人不太相信。现在连外国的学者都在说，习近平的权势已经达到了巅峰，就是一个独裁者了。但这都是表面现象，就像一个泡在水里的瓜，表面上看十分光鲜，其实里边已经开始烂了。历史的经验也是如此：一个不让人信服的独裁体制，在它达到巅峰的时候，也就是它开始腐烂的时候。

最近新闻太多，所以大家没有注意到一个小新闻，这就是著名公众人物陈小鲁的死亡。一般人只知道他是诗人元帅陈毅的儿子，最多还知道他是红卫兵时代的名人。其名气和蒯大富、韩爱晶、彭小萌、聂元梓差不多，是那个时代最有名的公众人物之一。

但是许多人都不知道他真实的一面。在那场大破四旧的运动里，在警察指导下抄家迫害社会精英的时期，陈小鲁这个不乏善心的小青年，曾经救过人。在改革开放的初期，他曾经是政治改革的积极支持者和实践者。在八九年六四大屠杀期间，他是积极的反对派和事后激烈的批评者。为此，他受到了调查和整肃。

他近些年的身份不太为外界所知。他是红二代政界人物小圈子的名人，尤其是邓系人物小圈子里的名人。最近习近平整肃邓系小圈子为首的反对派小圈子，抓了邓家外孙女婿，撤了邓家的女儿，关了以邓家为首的安邦集团。这是在警告所有的党内反对者：不要影响我当皇帝，就是邓家也不行；虽然任期限制是邓小平提出来的，但现在是我习泽东当权，打倒邓小平也不在话下。

毛泽东独裁的基础，是党内外普遍的崇拜，对毛的个人崇拜。毛泽东有他的个人魅力，他有文采，懂历史，懂政治，在建立共产党政权上确实起到了重要的作用。邓小平的半个独裁，建立在过去的功劳和威信上，但缺少个人魅力和文化，很多人并不服气。

习近平有什么呢?他没有过去的功劳，只有到处大撒币；他没有文采还到处晒书单，徒增笑话。所以别人很难对他服气，也根本不可能崇拜他，可以说不具备当独裁者的素质。所以，他才需要霸王硬上弓，靠镇压不服者来当上独裁者。这样的人从历史上来看，只能是以悲剧结束。

近年来大家都喜欢谈论什么红二代，官二代。习近平虽然当过一段时间的黑二代狗崽子，复辟之后也还是正牌的红二代。按理说这帮干部子弟应该是他的助力，至少不是敌人。

但是出乎我们大家的意料之外，陈小鲁的事情似乎暴露出习近平和他的天然支持者之间，不但不是盟友反而是仇敌。据说所谓的盟友，居然被他认为是权位的竞争者，所以必然被列为清除整肃的对象。也是，在这些见过世面的上层家庭出身的精英分子里，要获得威信不是靠组织上培养就能成功的。

就像古代地位有争议的皇位继承人一样，现代没有威信或者是逐渐丧失了威信的独裁者，一般的结果都是被推翻或者直接被杀掉。习近平一家人都不傻，为了避免一般的结果，就要做一些非常之事来保卫自己的权力地位。

这种非常之事，古代和现代都发生过。不外乎雍正模式，斯大林模式，和毛泽东模式。而反抗者则有华国锋模式，汪精卫模式，林彪模式，包括政变，暗杀，造反等等。

在贫富差距极大，驱赶低端人口，经济快速下滑，内外矛盾加剧，镇压力度加大的中国现今形势下，这个困境就是走向灭亡的征兆。所以现在有人又送了习近平一个外号，这个新的外号，叫做“死得快”。就是说中国有了习大大，共产政权死得快。

魏京生在自由亚洲电台评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-03072018133150.html