Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1093-W730

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1093-W730

Release Date: March 17, 2018

发布日：2018年3月17日

Topic: The Dilemma of Xi Jinping (Part 1) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的困境（之一） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The Dilemma of Xi Jinping (part 1)

-- Wei Jingsheng

The Nineteenth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has ended. The quiz movement further developed into a new movement: the prophet movement. Now people's arguments are beginning to gradually shift to a new direction: what will happen in the future. In this respect, my views are not the same as many of my friends, so I outline them below.

As many friends read Xi Jinping's report and the propaganda of some media, they think that the anti-corruption campaign will continue; eventually the CCP will become non-corruptive politically and united together for a better economy. I think this is completely wrong.

Why? First, Wang Qishan was not willing to step down from the leadership of the CCP. Regardless of what he himself thinks, the large number of people he has built into the anti-corruption system also may be concerned of the possible change of their leader. This is a topic that cannot be avoided, as well as being an unclear thing to explain. Will there be a way for this team to transform its master to Xi Jinping? I think it is very difficult.

Second, although Wang Qishan escaped from the cusp of the storm, will the hatred of officialdom let him go, and let go the anti-corruption officials under his command? Millions of targeted officials and their family members would want to strike back. Will Xi Jinping let them counterattack or not? If he lets them counterattack, this batch of anti-corruption team members will become a disaster for Xi Jinping because they must hold on together as a group to rebel for their own survival. However, if a counterattack is not allowed, then Xi Jinping will became the target of the hatred of those millions of people. This is a dilemma.

It seems that the 19th Congress of the CCP had only accomplished one thing, which is to establish the status of Comrade Xi Jinping as a "great leader" and to write Xi Jinping's thoughts into the constitution of the CCP. This action is an awkward idea to make others to hate. In order to avoid this hate, even Mao Zedong did not self-proclaim his thought to be Maoism; he came up with the word "ideology" which is the same actually but without a name recognition. It can be said that Mao played a false modesty, but he still had something of his own: class struggle, violent revolution, guerrilla warfare and so on, which have disrupted the world for more than half a century. In that way, Mao could be counted as a master of one generation, no less than Karl Marx and Adolf Hitler.

What does Xi Jinping have? By repeating a few lines from the Marxist-Leninist textbooks, he dares to claim these as his own ideas, and thus call himself a master? Is it not laughable? Of course, the so-called theorist who provides such an idea is laughable, but the root reason is that Xi Jinping does not know about himself. His arrogant attitude got this name only yet without essence; in addition, there are bunch of shameless brownnosers around him. Now we really have to worry about the administration ability of Xi Jinping. Where could we find the so-called modernization?

The result of the lack of ability of Xi's administration, plus the reduced anti-corruption campaign and pressure from the economic downturn result a rapidly deteriorating domestic situation. The days of ordinary people will become more and more difficult. The poor classes that feel unable to survive or barely survivable will quickly expand, with the emotions of the rebellious becoming stronger and stronger. This is exactly the opposite of the Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao eras.

The division within the ruling class will become more and more serious. The part that turned the purge campaign into hatred, with the additional people who maybe purged, will gradually turn people's minds from scared into desire for change. This change will become the new normal of Xi Jinping's dictatorial politics. Once a spark or a collapse occurs, the new empire of the "great leader" will quickly collapse. When and by what means to collapse is an accident of history, but the collapse itself is a historical necessity.

The most important thing is that history will not repeat itself. The present world is no longer the world of Mao Zedong, nor that of Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin. It has been impossible to take advantage of the cold war, and to overcome economic difficulties by relying on fooling others. It is also no longer possible to fool the people by offering them with the empty promises. And it is also impossible for all kinds of shields to block the information. Even suppression by the military and police will become increasingly unreliable. The military and the police are also made of ordinary people, who are receiving more and more open information now.

What should we do then? We have returned to the old issue 40 years ago when the Gang of Four was defeated: We need the Fifth Modernization - Democracy, to guide our country and our people out of the predicament. The new thinking is not old-fashioned Marxism-Leninism, but a new idea of democracy and freedom. The new governance system can only be the political structure of the democratic legal system where people have already succeeded. The new economic system can only be the most effective market economy system that humans have proved for thousands of years.

These ideas have long been the consensus of the Chinese people for many years. Those who win the hearts of the people shall have the world, and those who lose the hearts of the people will lose the world. I hope the elites inside of China and abroad can win the hearts of the people, can grasp the correct direction, instead of detouring as before.

Original link of the RFA commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11022017154339.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2017/WeiJS171031onXiJPdilemma1.mp3

(Written and recorded on October 31, 2017. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1093-W730

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1093-W730

Release Date: March 17, 2018

发布日：2018年3月17日

Topic: The Dilemma of Xi Jinping (Part 1) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的困境（之一） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-03/WeiJS180317onXiJPdilemma1A1093-W730.htm

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习近平的困境（之一）

-- 魏京生

万众瞩目的竞猜运动十九大结束了。竞猜运动进一步向深入发展，转变为一场新的运动：预言家运动。现在大家的说法开始逐渐转移到新的方向：今后会有什么事发生。在这方面我和很多朋友的看法不太一样，简述如下。

很多朋友看了习近平的报告和一些媒体的宣传，以为反腐败运动还会继续下去；中共最终会变得政治清廉，并且团结一致办好经济。我认为这是大错特错。

为什么呢？首先是王岐山下台并非心甘情愿。无论他本人怎么想的，他建立的反腐败体系的众多人马，是否也要一朝天子一朝臣呢？这是个躲不开的话题，也是个解释不清的事情。有办法让这支队伍转变主子成为习近平的队伍吗？我看很难。

其次是，王岐山从风口浪尖上躲开了，官场的仇恨会放过他，以及他手下的反腐干将们吗？上百万被整肃对象和家属要反扑，小习让他们反扑还是不让呢？让他们反扑，这一批反腐队伍就成了小习的灾难，他们必须抱团为自己的生存造反。不让反扑，习近平就成了那上百万人仇恨的对象。这可是个两难的问题。

看上去这次的十九大只办了一件事：树立了习近平同志“伟大领袖”的地位，把什么习近平思想写进了党章。这可是个招人嫉恨的馊主意。毛泽东为了避免招人嫉恨，不敢自称主义，而搞出一个有其实而无其名的思想一词出来。可以说是假谦虚了一把，但他毕竟还有些自己的东西：阶级斗争，暴力革命，游击战争等等搞乱了世界半个多世纪。那也算是一代大师了，不亚于马克思和希特勒。

可你习近平有什么呢？重复了几句马列主义教科书就敢自称思想，自称大师？岂不是招人耻笑。出这个馊主意的所谓理论家固然可笑，但习近平自己不知道自己是老几才是根本原因。有其名而无其实的自大心态，加上一大批吃像很难看的低级马屁精围绕在周围。小习的执政能力可真的堪忧了，哪里有什么现代化？

以小习这届班子的能力，加上反腐退潮和经济下行的压力，三管齐下的后果，就是迅速恶化的国内局势。老百姓的日子会越来越不好过，感觉无法生存或者难以生存的穷困阶级会迅速扩大，反叛情绪也会越来越剧烈。这和江胡时代的情况正好相反。

统治阶层内部分裂会越来越严重。已经被整肃运动搞成仇恨的部分，加上可能被整肃的部分，人心惶惶逐渐变成人心思变，以至于人心思反。这将成为习近平独裁政治的新常态。一旦出现一个导火索或者崩塌面，“伟大领袖”的新帝国将迅速崩溃。以什么方式崩溃是历史的偶然，必将崩溃则是历史的必然。

最重要的是历史不会重复。现在的世界已经不是毛泽东时代的世界，也不再是邓小平和江泽民的时代了。想钻冷战的空子，靠忽悠别人占便宜度过经济难关，已经不可能了。想靠虚无美好的空口许诺忽悠老百姓也已经不可能了。各种什么盾的封锁消息也不可能了。就连靠军队警察镇压也越来越不可靠。军人和警察也是老百姓，也在接受越来越开放的信息。

怎么办？这又回到了四十年前打倒四人帮时代的老问题：需要第五个现代化，来引导国家和人民走出困境。新的思想不是老调重弹的马列主义，而是民主自由的新思想。新的治理体系，只能是人家已经成功的民主法制的政治结构。新的经济体系，也只能是人类几千年实践证明最有效的市场经济体系。

这些早已是国民多年来的共识。得民心者得天下，失民心者失天下。望国内外的精英们能得民心，把握正确的方向，而不要再走弯路了。

魏京生在自由亚洲电台评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11022017154339.html