Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1094-W731
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1094-W731
Release
Date: March 18, 2018
发布日：2018年3月18日
Topic:
Wei Jingsheng Invited to Attend VOA "the Taiwan Strait Talk"
Talkshow: "Taiwan Travel Act" passes, and Is President Trump Using
the "Taiwan Card" to Check and Balance China?
标题：魏京生参加美国之音海峡论谈："台湾旅行法"通过，川普打"台湾牌"制衡中国？
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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-----------------------------------------------------------------
(Note
by the editor: On March 16, 2018, President Trump signed the Taiwan Travel
Act.)
Wei
Jingsheng Invited to Attend VOA "the Taiwan Strait Talk" Talkshow:
"Taiwan Travel Act" passes, and Is President Trump Using the
"Taiwan Card" to Check and Balance China?
March
5, 2018 00:59
--
Daphne Dung-Ning FAN, Voice of America
Washington
-
The
US Senate unanimously passed the "Taiwan Travel Act" which will
become law when it is signed by President Trump. This law will break the restrictions imposed on Taiwan's top
officials, including President Tsai Ing-wen, to travel to Washington DC, the
capital of the United States. The
senior author of the American news website "Washington Free Beacon,"
Bill Gertz, quoted U.S. government officials who are familiar with this Act as
saying that President Trump is expected to sign the Act in the coming days. However, a White House spokesperson said
that there is currently no announcement about it yet. Will the Taiwan Travel Act change the rules of the game for
the U.S.-Taiwan relationship and provoke a new wave of crisis across the Taiwan
Strait? Are exchange visits of
heads of the U.S. and Taiwan around the corner? The "Taiwan Strait Talk" show invited WEI
Jingsheng, chairman of the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition, FAN Chou, an
expert regarding the trends across the Taiwan Strait, and June LIN, policy
researcher at the Formosan Association for Public Affairs (FAPA) which is
actually responsible for promoting the Taiwan Travel Act in the U.S. Congress,
to give in-depth analyses.
June
Lin said: "The promotion of the Taiwan Travel Act has probably taken more
than a year. It took a longer time
in the US House of Representatives where it passed on January 9 this year. Soon after on February 7, the Foreign
Relations Committee of the US Senate passed the House of Representatives
version, also known as HR 535.
Then on February 28, the US Senate voted unanimously to pass it. As long as President Trump signs it
within 10 days, it will formally become law. Actually there are many people talking about the possibility
of a veto by the Trump administration.
There has been a record of vetoes by US presidents. For example, during President Barack
Obama's eight-year tenure there were only total of 12 bills on all issues
vetoed. From this point of view,
veto does not happen very frequently.
In particular, I think that there are still many major domestic bills
that are controversial in the US Congress. With regard to the Taiwan Travel Act, President Trump will
not go against the Congress."
Wei
Jingsheng pointed out: "In fact, the Taiwan Travel Act was adopted by both
the US Senate and the US House of Representatives because it corrects a very
unfair historical error. When the
United States established diplomatic relations with the Chinese Communist
regime, it set such a rule and discriminated against Taiwan. Even if Taiwan were a province of the
Mainland China, would its governor be restricted from visits to the United
States? No. This is a discriminatory approach
toward Taiwan. Now both the Senate
and the House of Representatives have unanimously approved the Taiwan Travel
Act, which illustrates the trend of the times."
In
addition, Wei Jingsheng also believes that for the US Congress to pass the
Taiwan Travel Act at this time is actually a very serious warning to the
Communist regime that it should not think that the United States would not
interfere when it threatens Taiwan.
That is impossible. That is
because the Communist Party had sent strong signals before such as threatening
to cut off diplomatic relations between China and the United States, and
pursuing unification with Taiwan by military action, etc. But the United States still passed this
Act in spite of these warnings.
This is tantamount to using this action to warn the Communist regime not
to think that the United States will not care about affairs of Taiwan. So this is a very important
signal."
FAN
Chou pointed out that if President Trump signs the "Taiwan Travel
Act" it would completely change the rules of the game between the USA and
Taiwan. He said: "This is
definitely a game changer. Given
the speed for both the US Senate and the House to pass this Act, if President
Trump signs it into law then we know that the Chinese media had said too much
by saying his signature will result in the termination of diplomatic
relationships between China and the USA, and the day of the signature will be
the day of unifying Taiwan by military action, etc. This action would receive mixed feelings in Taiwan. The good part is that the people of
Taiwan are psychologically dependent on the support of the United States, which
is tantamount to another recognition.
On the other hand, the Taiwanese people also know that this incident may
have impact on Beijing."
As
to whether President Trump will use Taiwan as a card to check China, Fan Chou
said: "President Trump is a very smart politician. He will hold this card in his hands and
will not play it easily. Even if
he signs the Act, whether he will move this piece or not will depend on
subsequent economic and trade negotiations with China, including results of the
recent visit of Liu He to the United States, as well as negotiations of the
nuclear issue of North Korea and the behavior of China. These other outcomes will determine his
decision on how many steps further he would take on this "Taiwan Travel
Act". I think that President
Tsai Ing-wen's administration is feeling like walking on thin ice now."
Instead,
Wei Jingsheng said: "the Taiwan Travel Act is not a card in hand but a
card that has already been played.
This is tantamount to telling Beijing that no matter what you do, it is
impossible for us to ignore Taiwan, which is to remind Beijing to pay
attention. Also, in fact, the
United States has a lot of cards in its hands and does not necessarily have to
use the Taiwan card. Just the
economic cards alone already have forced Beijing to make concessions, not only
to impose sanctions on North Korea, but also to open trade. This is the goal that the Trump
administration has always hoped to achieve. Of course, this goal may have been somewhat weakened due to
some interference within the White House.
However, recent personnel adjustments in the White House have resulted
in great attention to strengthening this goal, which is to balance Sino-U.S.
trade. This goal is more important
to President Trump than beating up North Korea, because this is the most
concerning issue that the American people care about. These cards are all in the hands of the United States. Instead, Xi Jinping does not have cards
in his hands."
June
LIN stressed: "Actually, there is no clearly expressed prohibition of the
Taiwanese president to visit Washington DC, in the US law (i.e. Taiwan
Relations Act). It was only a
self-imposed restriction so as to not infuriate Beijing. Therefore, the Taiwan Travel Act
actually merely lifts the so-called unreasonable diplomatic practice. On the legal level, this is actually
not a scary act. I have a positive
attitude to this law. I think it
is a part of the normalization of the relationship between Taiwan and the
United States, which also adds another instrument and a bargaining chip for
Taiwan and the United States to negotiate with Beijing during the wrestle
between the United States, China, and Taiwan."
Whether
or not the adoption of this law means that the exchange of visits between
high-level officials of Taiwan and the US is just around the corner or whether
President Tsai Ing-wen will come to Washington, DC immediately, June Lin expressed: "The Taiwan
Travel Act actually only unlocked the high-level exchanges between Taiwan and
the United States. It is up to the
top officials of Taiwan and the United States themselves to decide on how they
will exchange their visits, when will they visit each other, and whether there
will be suitable mutual visits.
Recently, both the Indo-Pacific Strategy and the National Security
Strategy of the USA have clearly named the threat from China. Under such circumstances, if the United
States passes this Act, it does not mean that it is deliberately trying to
infuriate Beijing, but to reconfirm the importance of Taiwan on the strategic
links of the United States and the important role of Taiwan as a strategic
partner to the USA."
As
for whether President Trump's signing of the Taiwan Travel Act will trigger
another crisis across the Taiwan Strait Wei Jingsheng thinks:"People have
not noticed that the so-called Taiwan Strait crisis is not a real crisis, but
just the CCP's incitement to fan
up nationism among the Chinese people.
Of course, exerting some pressure on Taiwan is something the CCP does on
the surface. But in reality, there
is no real crisis, because it does not want to strike Taiwan at all. During the missile crisis across the
Taiwan Strait in 1996, the former Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui was humorous
and said the missiles were just "blank cartridges". This is the truth, that they had not
even thought about taking real action.
Some people in Taiwan just do not know who they really are, and scare
themselves all the time, shouting wolves are coming every day. Even if now the relationship between
the United States and Taiwan is upgraded a bit more, for instance by having
President Tsai Ing-wen come to visit Washington or President Trump or Vice
President Pence visit Taiwan, I think Beijing will still scold about it, but
there is no need of worrying too much."
June
LIN pointed out: "The passage of the Taiwan Travel Act is a very important
step for Taiwan and the United States.
The recent cabinet shuffling in Taiwan is very big, including Joseph
Wu's taking over as Minister for Foreign Affairs, followed by the new
headquarters of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), that will be unveiled
in Taipei. With the passage of the
Taiwan Travel Act, and the United States' recent layout in the Indo-Pacific
where Japan and India have a lot of regional cooperation, Taiwan may be able to
use such opportunities, including the passage of Taiwan Travel Act and the plan
of India-Pacific Strategy of the USA, to encourage a new Southern Policy (of
Taiwan) to expand a new diplomatic situation for Taiwan. This would be a very important step for
Taiwan."
For
one-hour full version of the VOA "Taiwan Strait Talk" on YouTube,
March 4, 2018:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8blS4scAlc
YouTube
link of this part of "Taiwan Strait Talk" about Taiwan Travel Act:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWGwoL1WEhQ
or:
https://youtu.be/L_0HWbybokg
and:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/interviews/interviews2018/WeiJSonTaiwanTravelAct180304VOAtalkshow.mp4
And
audio:
https://www.voachinese.com/pp/4279828/ppt0.html
Also:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/interviews/interviews2018/WeiJSonTaiwanTravelAct180304VOAtalkshow.mp3
Original
link of this VOA report:
https://www.voachinese.com/a/strait-talk-taiwan-us-trump-20180304/4279861.html
Related
photos of this program:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2018/newsletters2018-1/WeiJSonTaiwanTravelAct180304VOAtalkshow-c-4.jpg
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2018/newsletters2018-1/FanDNetc180304VOAtalkshow-c-4.jpg
-----------------------------------------------------------------
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1094-W731
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1094-W731
Release
Date: March 18, 2018
发布日：2018年3月18日
Topic:
Wei Jingsheng Invited to Attend VOA "the Taiwan Strait Talk"
Talkshow: "Taiwan Travel Act" passes, and Is President Trump Using
the "Taiwan Card" to Check and Balance China?
标题：魏京生参加美国之音海峡论谈："台湾旅行法"通过，川普打"台湾牌"制衡中国？
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-03/WeiJSonTaiwanTravelAct180318VOAtalkshowA1094-W731.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
（编者注：2018年3月16日，特朗普总统签署了台湾旅行法）
魏京生参加美国之音海峡论谈："台湾旅行法"通过，川普打"台湾牌"制衡中国？
2018年3月5日
00:59
-- 美国之音樊冬宁
华盛顿 -
美国国会参议院全票通过《台湾旅行法》，只等川普总统签字就能成为法律! 这将打破台湾高层官员-包括总统蔡英文访问美国首都华盛顿的限制。美国新闻网站"华盛顿自由灯塔"资深记者葛茨（Bill
Gertz）引述熟悉此法的美国政府官员的说法报导，川普总统预计未来几天就会签署《台湾旅行法》。不过白宫发言人表示，目前没有任何关于这项法案的公告。究竟《台湾旅行法》是否会改变美中台关系的游戏规则?
并且挑起新一波的台海危机？美台元首互访是否指日可待?《海峡论谈》邀请中国民主运动海外联席会议主席魏京生、两岸趋势专家范畴以及实际负责在美国国会协助推动《台湾旅行法》的台湾人公共事务会政策研究员林倢深入分析。
林倢表示："台湾旅行法的推动大概经历了超过一年的时间，在众议院经历了比较久的时间，在今年1月9日通过。很快在2月7号，参议院的外交关系委员会马上通过了众议院的版本，也就是所谓的HR535。在2月28号传出消息，参议院全票通过。只要在10天内，川普总统签署立法的话，这项法律就会正式签署立法。其实有蛮多的人谈到川普政府否决的可能性。过去美国立案总统否决的记录，像奥巴马总统在8年的任期至内，总共只有否决12个法案。由此看来，否决这件事不是太常发生的事情，尤其我认为，目前在美国国会还有许多国内相关的争议性的大法案。关于《台湾旅行法》，川普总统并不会因此跟国会唱反调。"
魏京生指出："其实为什么《台湾旅行法》是参众两院全体通过，因为它纠正了一个非常不公平的历史错误。当初美国跟共产党建交的时候定下来这么一个规矩，对台湾进行歧视。说难听点儿，就算台湾是大陆一个省，省长来访问美国，会受限制嘛？不会受限制的。这是对台湾歧视性的做法。参众两院一致通过，说明大势所趋。"
此外，魏京生也认为，美国国会在这个时候通过《台湾旅行法》，实际上有很严重的警告意味：就是共产党不要以为扬言武统台湾，美国就不加干涉，那是不可能的。因为共产党虽然之前已经发出了很强的信号，威胁要中美断交啦、武统台湾啦，结果美国还是不顾这些警告通过了这个法，这就等于是要藉由这个行动警告共产党，不要以为美国不管台湾的事情，我们还是要管的。所以这是一个很重要的信号。"
范畴指出，如果川普总统签署《台湾旅行法》，此法将彻底改变美中台关系的游戏规则。他说: "这肯定是一个Game Changer。从参众两院这么快的速度签署，一旦川普字签下之后，中国媒体话就说得太满了，什么中美断交、签字之日就是武统台湾之时等等。这个对台来讲喜忧参半。喜的话，台湾人民心理上很依赖美国的支持，这等于是再一次认可。另一方面，台湾民众也知道，这件事对北京可能造成的冲击。
至于川普总统是否会打台湾牌来制衡中国，范畴认为： "川普是一个非常聪明的政客。他这张牌会握在手上，不会轻易打的。他即使签字下去了，但是他是否会移动这个棋子，要看他接下来对中国的经贸谈判，包括这次刘鹤到美国，还有朝核问题的谈判，中国的表现，然后才决定《台湾旅行法》这部棋他要用到哪一步。我想蔡英文政府现在应该是如履薄冰。"
魏京生则说："《台湾旅行法》已经不是拿在手里的牌了，已经打出来了。这等于告诉北京，不管你做什么，反正我们对台湾是不可能不管的，这是提醒北京注意了。第二个，其实美国手里牌很多，不一定非要打台湾的牌。光经济牌已经压得北京不得不让步，不得不制裁北朝鲜，而且不仅制裁北朝鲜，而且要开放贸易。这是川普政府一直希望达到的目标，当然过去可能由于白宫内部的一些干扰，这个目标有点儿弱。但是最近，白宫的人事调整，非常注意加强达到这个目标，就是平衡中美贸易。这是川普比打北朝鲜更重要的一个目标，因为这是美国老百姓最关心的事情。这些牌都攥在美国手里，反而是习近平手里没什么牌。"
林倢强调："所谓台湾总统不能够到华盛顿来访问，其实在美国法律(台湾关系法)当中并没有明文规定禁止，只是因为害怕激怒北京，而加在自己身上的一个限制。所以《台湾旅行法》其实只是把所谓的不合理的外交惯例解除。就法律层面来说，这其实不是一个那么恐怖的法案。我持正面态度看待此法，我认为这是台美关系正常化的一环，也替台湾与美国在美中台三方的角力之中多增添一项工具和筹码来跟北京协商。"
至于此法通过是否就意味着台美元首互访指日可待? 蔡英文马上就会到美国首都华盛顿来? 林倢表示："《台湾旅行法》其实只是为台美双方高层的互访开了门锁而已，台美双方高层未来究竟如何互访、何时互访、适不适合互访，这是由台湾以及美国的高层自己决定。美国最近提出的印太战略和美国国家安全战略都明确点出中国的威胁，在这样的情况下，美国如果通过这样的法案，其实并不是要刻意激怒北京，而是要重新确认台湾在美国的战略环节上的重要性以及台湾作为一个战略伙伴的重要角色。"
至于川普总统如果签署《台湾旅行法》是否会引发又一次的台海危机? 魏京生认为："大家都没有注意到，所谓的台海危机，并不是真正的危机，是中共借此在国内煽动的民族主义。当然，对台湾施加一定的压力，这是他表面做的一些东西。实质上并不存在真正的危机，它根本没有想打台湾。1996
年台海导弹危机的时候，当时台湾前总统李登辉幽默地说，他们那是空包弹，这是实话，根本没想过动真格。都是些在台湾的一些不知道什么人，自己吓唬自己，天天喊狼来了。即使现在美国和台湾的关系再升格一些，比如请蔡英文总统来华盛顿访问，或者川普或副总统顺便去台湾溜达溜达，我想北京可能还会跳着脚骂，但还是不用太担心。"
林倢指出："《台湾旅行法》的通过，对台湾跟美国来说都是非常重要的一步。台湾最近内阁的调动很大，包括吴钊燮接任外交部长，紧接着美国在台协会AIT新的总部也要在台北揭幕。《台湾旅行法》的通过，再加上美国最近的印太布局，日本跟印度在那都有很多的区域合作，台湾或许可以利用这样的机会，包括《台湾旅行法》的通过、美国印太战略的布局，并配合新南向政策来拓展台湾的外交新局，这对台湾来说是非常重要的一步。"
2018年3月4日的《海峡论谈》完整版视频：
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8blS4scAlc
2018年3月4日的《海峡论谈》"台湾旅行法"部分视频：
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWGwoL1WEhQ
或：
https://youtu.be/L_0HWbybokg
及：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/interviews/interviews2018/WeiJSonTaiwanTravelAct180304VOAtalkshow.mp4
录音：
https://www.voachinese.com/pp/4279828/ppt0.html
及：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/interviews/interviews2018/WeiJSonTaiwanTravelAct180304VOAtalkshow.mp3
此报道的原始链接：
https://www.voachinese.com/a/strait-talk-taiwan-us-trump-20180304/4279861.html
魏京生参加美国之音节目时的相关照片：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2018/newsletters2018-1/WeiJSonTaiwanTravelAct180304VOAtalkshow-c-4.jpg
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2018/newsletters2018-1/FanDNetc180304VOAtalkshow-c-4.jpg
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