Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1097-W734

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1097-W734

Release Date: April 7, 2018

发布日：2018年4月7日

Topic: The Dilemma of Xi Jinping (Part 4) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的困境（之四） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The Dilemma of Xi Jinping (Part 4)

-- Wei Jingsheng

Speak of the devil, the devil arrives. As Xi Jinping just opened the drapes for his imperial drama, he encountered a big-headed ghost. As his "good friend," the US President Trump gave a gift to Xi Jinping: a trade war. President Trump, to correct unfair trade with China in the past more than two decades, and has started a gradually escalating trade war. With a steady growing trend, he began to impose tariffs on goods from China in order to gradually offset the trade deficit from China and save the economy for China and the United States.

Many people would be surprised to say: Trump is talking about saving the American economy, not saving the Chinese economy. What is going on? The reason is that the unfair trade between China and the United States not only damages the interests of ordinary Americans, but also damages the interests of the Chinese people. It is only beneficial to the Chinese government and the capitalists of both countries. The rapid growth of the Chinese economy over the past 20 years has fed the Chinese government well and has also resulted in the number of billionaires in China and the United States growing at a rapid rate. However, the average people of both countries were taken advantaged of.

Here is an example. When Xi Jinping and President Trump met each other last year, they agreed that China would increase the import of US beef. The Chinese government has designated two companies to monopolize beef imports. Beef that sold for about twenty RMB a pound in a US supermarket was sold for 300 RMB in a Chinese supermarket. Of course, it did not sell well. The patriotic cynics in China whose brains were damaged therefore cheered and said: You see, American beef is too expensive to sell. It is not that China does not let you import.

The result is that not only did U.S. farmers and businessmen suffer a loss, 1.4 billion Chinese could not afford to consume the tasty and inexpensive beef from the USA. Who benefited from it? Only those monopolies that have tossed beef in China, and governments at all levels that collect profits and taxes. This is not an individual example to be exempted. It is a universal model of trade barriers from China in the China-US trade, which is also what President Trump described as unfair trade. Those who suffered are not only American workers and farmers, but more so Chinese consumers.

Do not believe in the analysis of those scholars who are biased, let alone believe the lies of the Chinese propaganda machine that took advantage. Many overseas Chinese who go to China to visit their relatives as well as foreign tourists are saying that it is expensive in China. From electric appliances to food, the absolute value of most consumer goods has even surpassed that of the United States. With the exception of a few rich people, most people feel that any increase in income cannot keep up with the increases of the consumer prices, including real estate in China. In the past several decades, there has not been much change in the standard of living in China - although electrical appliances have increased, various social safety nets including medical care, education, housing, and so on have reduced. To summarize, these who were poor are still poor, and some are even poorer than in the past. The only exception is that Deng Xiaoping's wishes are being realized, i.e. "to let a few people become rich first".

What are the benefits to China from taking away various trade barriers? In addition to allowing the Chinese consumer to benefit, what are the benefits to producers? This is a worry that some people who produce have. This is a kind of inertial thinking: that the pattern of producing cheap and inferior goods can be maintained forever; that the habit of American consumers not watching quality will be maintained forever; that Americans are all fools. Yet these producers do not know that the reputation of Chinese goods has been stinking all over the world.

As happened in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, now Chinese companies are in urgent need of upgrading products and technologies. The first need is the initiative or pressure; the second need requires funding. If Xi Jinping bows his head to admit mistakes and calmly negotiates with Trump, if he gradually opens the Chinese market while compressing the exports of the poor quality goods from China, then he may give the Chinese companies enough pressure while allowing the United States to reduce the huge foreign trade deficit. This approach would be more beneficial than harmful to the economies of China and the United States.

If the confrontation goes on in the way of these madmen in the Chinese diplomatic community, then these results will appear. The first is that the Americans' determination to reduce the deficit must be reached. Looking at the trend of President Trump's replacement of cabinet officials recently, you should know that the means to buy out American politicians to cheat the American voters has reached the strength of a traveling arrow on its last lag. The second is that the result of the trade war can only be that China's export will be forced to reduce drastically until it close to zero. The bankruptcy rate of Chinese companies will multiply, while the unemployment rate in China will multiply as well. It will not only cause an economic collapse, it will be likely cause regime collapse as well, thus resulting in social turmoil in China and the suffering of the Chinese people.

Original link of the RFA commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-03282018101954.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2018/WeiJS180327onXiJPdilemma4.mp3

(Written and recorded on March 27, 2018. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1097-W734

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1097-W734

Release Date: April 7, 2018

发布日：2018年4月7日

Topic: The Dilemma of Xi Jinping (Part 4) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的困境（之四） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-04/WeiJS180407onXiJPdilemma4A1097-W734.htm

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习近平的困境(之四)

-- 魏京生

说曹操，曹操到。习近平的皇帝梦刚刚开场，就碰到了大头鬼。川普总统可真是小习的好朋友，马上就给了小习一个开门红：贸易战。他要纠正二十多年来的不公平贸易，开始了逐步升级的贸易战；以稳步增长的趋势开始对来自中国的商品征收关税，以便逐渐抵消来自中国的贸易逆差，拯救中美两国的经济。

很多人诧异道：川普说的是拯救美国的经济，没说要拯救中国的经济，这是怎么回事儿？原因就是中美之间不公平的贸易，不仅损害了美国老百姓的利益，也在损害着中国老百姓的利益，而仅仅是对中国政府和两国的资本家们有利。二十年来飞速增长的中国经济，肥了中国政府的同时，也让中美两国亿万富翁的数量飞速增长，两国老百姓反而在吃亏。

举例说明。习近平和川普去年见面说好，增加进口美国牛肉。中国政府指定了两家公司，垄断了牛肉进口。然后把美国超市里大约二十块人民币一斤的牛肉，在中国超市里卖到三百块钱，当然卖不出去。脑子进水的爱国愤青们欢呼雀跃，说：你看，美国牛肉就是太贵不好卖，不是我们中国不让你进口。

结果不仅是美国农民和商人吃了亏，十四亿中国人也就吃不到鲜嫩便宜的美国牛肉了。谁能从中获得利益呢？只有那些在中国倒腾牛肉的垄断企业，和收取利税的各级政府。这不是个例，是中美贸易中方贸易壁垒的普遍模式，也就是川普总统所说的不公平贸易。而吃亏的不仅仅是美国工人和农民，更包括中国的消费者。

不要相信那些歪嘴学者的分析，更不能相信占了便宜的中国宣传机器的什么见闻之类的谎言。众多回国探亲的华侨和旅游者，都说中国的物价太高，从电器到食品，大多数消费品的绝对值都已超过了美国。除了少数富翁之外，大多数人都觉得收入的增长赶不上物价的增长，包括房地产。几十年来生活水平没什么太大的变化，电器增加了，医疗、教育、住房等等保障却减少了。归拢起来就是穷人还是穷人，有些比过去还穷。只有邓小平的愿望实现了，就是让少数人富起来了。

取消各种贸易壁垒之后，对中国有什么好处呢？除了消费者获利之外，对生产者有什么好处呢？这是一部份工薪阶层的担心之处。这是一种惯性思维，以为廉价劣质商品的模式可以永远维持下去；以为美国消费者不看质量的习惯会永远维持下去；以为美国人都是傻瓜；却不知道中国货的好名声已经臭了全世界的大街。

和当年的日本、韩国、台湾一样，现在中国的企业急需产品和技术的升级换代。第一需要动力或者说压力；第二需要资金。如果习近平低头承认错误，心平气和地跟川普谈判，在逐步开放中国的市场的同时，压缩中国劣质商品的出口，就可以在给中国企业足够压力的同时，让美国减轻巨额外贸逆差。这对中美两国的经济是利大于害。

如果像外交系的那些疯子所说的那样对抗下去，结果便会出现。第一，美国减少逆差的目的必须达到，看看川普更换内阁官员的趋势，就知道这回靠收买政客忽悠美国选民的手段已经是强弩之末了。第二，贸易战的结果只能是中国的出口被迫大幅度削减，直至接近于零。中国企业的破产率会成倍地增加，失业率也会成倍地增加。那就不仅仅是经济崩溃，很可能是政权崩溃，社会动荡，人民遭殃。

魏京生在自由亚洲电台评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-03282018101954.html