Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1111-W745

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1111-W745

Release Date: May 28, 2018

发布日：2018年5月28日

Topic: Is the Sino-USA Trade War Over? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：贸易战结束了吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Is the Sino-USA Trade War Over?

-- Wei Jingsheng

The Sino-US trade talks ended in Washington. There was no agreement but only a statement that the Chinese Communist regime accepted all the conditions of the United States, and the United States also announced that no tariffs would be imposed temporarily. It seems that a trade war that worried the entire world is over. But I think it is not that simple, and most reviewers are not very optimistic either.

Why? That is because the Communist regime in China never carries out its promises, which is similar to that infamous North Korea. The only difference lies in openness or intrigue. Some scholars have reported that the items promised this time have been guaranteed in the past, and even more. The result then was they were not carried out in various ways. Everyone is worried that this time, the United States was deceived again by the Communist regime in China.

For example, the Chinese people are most concerned about non-toxic meat and milk powder, which are commodities that many consume a lot of. But they need to be sold in various local places, which affects the interests of local bureaucrat capitalists. They can appoint certain merchants to import and then, like the beef sale of last year, no one cares to buy because it was so expensive.

The oil and gas that the United States cares most about this time will certainly greatly affect a large number of bureaucratic capitalists from the local government to the central government in China. The laws in the USA do not allow bribery. Ports and other departments in China will use various ways to block imports. The industrial sector in China hopes to obtain cheaper oil and gas than Russia provides, but the import sector in China does not care if there is not enough profit for them. So who will solve this problem then?

Will that be Liu He? He is only a deputy prime minister; even a provincial Party Secretary can ignore him. Will it be Liu He's boss Xi Jinping? Just as Xi Jinping's brother said at the funeral of Chen Xiaolu: "We need everyone's support". The law does not condemn the public. Does Xi Jinping dare to attack the local emperors of the provinces? If so, it would be better to give his position to Wang Qishan or Li Keqiang.

The emperors of these provinces also knew that it was important to have the support of the emperor. However, when they offended the bureaucratic capitalists, even the emperor could not protect them. They will play hard at their deceitful skills. The end result surely would be that corruption defeats authority, because even Xi's authority came from official corruption.

The United States is a country ruled by law. The law could solve most of the problems and does not need officials at all levels to intervene. Even the president is not entitled to interfere with the administration of justice. So their commitment is reliable, with their implementation to be transparent and predictable, with credit to both inside and outside.

China's one-party dictatorship shows that the party leadership is everything. Like Nazi Germany, it is the leaders at all levels that have the final say. Adolf Hitler's authority was big enough as the highest leader. The authority of Mao Zedong was second, in the way that he has the authority on the surface, but those below him would go their own way underneath. Deng Xiaoping was even worse - he was a handicapped dictator, who did not even have the authority on the surface, and had to consult with others.

The US President Trump wishes his good friend Xi Jinping to be a very strong dictator, and has continuously praised Xi Jinping on Twitter. Unfortunately, Xi Jinping's brother is very clear minded: They need everyone's support. Whose support then? These words were not directed at ordinary Chinese. They were directed at the wealthy and powerful bureaucratic capitalists of the second generation of the Communist officials. It seems that Trump is also good at providing deception, just as the fox praises the crow of his "beautiful singing", while what he really likes to have is the piece of meat in that crow's mouth.

Now that piece of meat finally fell as Liu He put on his awkward smiles. But it is hard to know if this piece of meat will really fall into the mouth of the fox. Liu He insisted not to make the items in the statement solid, which left room to withdraw his words later. That is because he predicted that the subsequent implementation would not be so reliable. Neither he nor his boss has the confidence to implement these commitments.

It seems that the non-toxic foodstuffs and cheap petroleum products that the Chinese people are hoping for will rely on the strong pressure of the U.S. government. These items include the natural gas from the USA that is needed to solve the haze of major cities. We will see the result on that topic when Wang Qishan comes to the USA next month.

I think that Wang Qishan is very smart. He gave Liu He the difficulty and the opportunity to say things without commitment. Yet he kept those items that could be committed such as the petroleum products and natural gas to himself. Because the bureaucrats may not be afraid of Xi Jinping, Wang Qishan's anti-corruption authority still remains, so the opportunity to realize the petroleum and natural gas advantage seem to be relatively large.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2018/WeiJS180521onChinaUStradewar.mp3

(Written and recorded on May 21, 2018. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1111-W745

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1111-W745

Release Date: May 28, 2018

发布日：2018年5月28日

Topic: Is the Sino-USA Trade War Over? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：贸易战结束了吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-05/WeiJS180528onChinaUStradewarA1111-W745.htm

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贸易战结束了吗？

-- 魏京生

中美贸易谈判在华盛顿结束了。没有协议只有声明，中共接受了美国的全部条件，美国也宣布暂时不加征关税。看上去一场让全世界忧心的贸易战，就此结束了。我看事情没这么简单，大多数评论者也不太看好。

为什么呢？因为中国一贯说话不算数，和著名的北朝鲜差不多。区别只在于明目张胆，还是阴谋诡计。有学者统计到，这次答应的条件过去都保证过，甚至保证得更多。结果就是以各种方式不算数。大家担心这一次，美国又被共产党给骗了。

例如老百姓最关心无毒的肉类和奶粉，这也是可能消费量很大的商品。但是需要在各个地方销售，这就影响了地方官僚资产阶级的利益。他们可以指定商家进口，然后就像去年的牛肉一样，高价出售无人问津。

美国最关心的石油天然气，肯定会大大影响从地方到中央的一大批官僚资产阶级。美国的法律又不允许贿赂，港口等等部门会有各种方法阻碍进口。工业部门希望得到比俄罗斯便宜的石油天然气，可是进口部门无利不起早。谁来解决这个问题呢？

刘鹤吗？他不过是个副总理，省委书记就可以不理睬他。他的老板习近平吗？正如小习的弟弟在陈小鲁的葬礼上对大家所说：还需要得到大家的支持。法不责众，他习近平就敢对各省的土皇帝下手吗？那还不如干脆让位给王岐山或者李克强。

各省的土皇帝也知道，有皇帝的支持固然很重要，但是得罪了官僚资产阶级，皇帝也保不了你。何去何从，他们会把欺上瞒下的功夫发挥得炉火纯青。最终的结果肯定是腐败战胜了权威，因为您老的权威不就是来源于官场腐败吗？

美国是以法治国，法律解决了大部分问题，不需要各级官员插手。就是总统，也无权干涉司法。所以他们的承诺是可靠的，执行是透明的和可预测的。无论对内对外都有信用。

中国的一党专政，说明了是党领导一切。和纳粹德国一样，是各级领袖说了算。希特勒的权威足够大，最高领袖能够说了算。毛泽东的权威次之，能够表面上说了算，底下不少阳奉阴违，各显神通。邓小平已经不行了，连表面功夫都要和别人商量，是个二把刀的独裁者。

川普希望他的好朋友习近平是个很强的独裁者，不断在推特上吹捧小习。遗憾的是小习的弟弟很明白：他们需要得到大家的支持。谁的支持？那话不是对着老百姓说的，是对着一帮红二代里有钱有势的官僚资产阶级说的。看来川普也是个大忽悠，就像狐狸说乌鸦唱歌好听一样，看中的是乌鸦嘴里的那块肉。

现在那块肉在刘鹤一脸尴尬的笑容中落下来了。但能不能落到狐狸的嘴里，也未可知。刘鹤坚持在声明中不把话说实，留下说话不算话的空间。就是因为他预测到后续的执行不那么可靠。他和他的老板都没有执行承诺的信心。

看来中国老百姓所盼望的无毒食品和廉价石油，都得依靠美国政府强大的压力才能得到。包括解决各大城市雾霾所需要的美国天然气，就得看王岐山下个月来美国谈得怎么样了。

我感觉王岐山很聪明，他把难题和说了不算的机会让给了刘鹤。把可以说了算的石油和天然气留给了自己。因为官僚们可以不怕习近平，但王岐山反腐败的余威还在。石油天然气的机会，看来还比较大。