Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1130-W761

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1130-W761

Release Date: August 5, 2018

发布日：2018年8月5日

Topic: Consequences of an Escalation of the Sino-US Trade War -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：贸易战升级的后果 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Consequences of an Escalation of the Sino-US Trade War

-- Wei Jingsheng

As of now, there is a cheer or scream in the media, as the Sino-US trade war has once again escalated. China's old trick of using currency depreciation to counter the trade wars has been cracked by the Americans' increase of tariff rates. This is good news to the Chinese people, so the hyperinflation may not happen. Although the Chinese currency has already depreciated a lot, under the pressure of the USA the Chinese government may stop keeping printing money, so ordinary Chinese can breathe more easily with a relief.

As Trump resolutely raised the tariff rate against Xi Jinping's tricks, he also threw out an olive branch. According to the reports of the news media, negotiations under the table have not stopped. Moreover, Trump also showed goodwill by stopping executing the Denial Order against ZTE. The signals he released are that everything can be negotiated, but do not play tricks. The trick-playing policy of violations even during the negotiations is not working anymore.

ZTE's model is very clear: if there are no practical measures to ensure implementation commitments, the United States will not accept a mode of saying something but accomplish nothing. In the current China when the whole society lacks morality and is in a state of flexible enforcement of laws, any commitment or treaty can not be safeguarded.

The goal of the United States is of course to solve the huge trade deficit. But now most Americans finally recognize the reality: China is a society without a legal system and no morality. There is no point to get only promises to solve the deficit, as it can be regenerated tomorrow just after it was promised today, just as it has been happening for years.

When the United States questions all this conduct after the cumbersome procedures, the Chinese government can promise again, and it will continue to squander. This is the old trick that China has played for decades. For money, there is no morality, As long as you earned money, you are a successful person. Deng Xiaoping stated long ago: as far as the cat catches a mouse, it is a good cat regardless whatever means it takes. Therefore, the commitments of the Chinese government never had credit.

This time, the Americans finally understood that punitive measures must accompany any accepting of commitments of the Chinese government, otherwise it would be meaningless. Therefore, the goal of this trade war is to reform the judicial system in China, to insure the economy is accompanied by legal protections. Only so, it is an acceptable market economy and it may possible to have fair trade. Trade without legal guarantees is not a fair trade, but can only be plunder. It is really too polite to say that they are mercantilist, which is not true.

Yet, Xi Jinping and his bureaucratic capitalists are unwilling to accept this reality. They are unwilling to believe that the goal of the United States is fair trade. Because if so, they lose their chance to make big money, they are not used to, nor are they willing to believe in reality. The American capitalists also have the same mentality. They are used to using an unfair legal system in China to take advantage of cheap and high-quality labor in China. The common interest is their motivation to help the Chinese Communist Party put pressure on the United States.

Due to the shortcomings of the American democratic system, the capacity of the big capitalists in the USA should not be underestimated. During this time, the pressure they put on the US Congress is gradually increasing, and the US Congress is preparing a bill to offset Trump's tariffs. This is the source of Xi Jinping's confidence. Although there are clear-minded officials in China, and although most people in China have seen that a trade war with the USA does not have chance of being won, the Communist regime representing the Chinese bureaucratic capitalists is unwilling to accept this reality and the trade war may continue for some time.

When will these stubborn bureaucrats accept the reality? That is when the Chinese economy is not only stagnant, but has collapsed. When the bureaucratic capitalists have no money to earn and are even on the verge of bankruptcy, they will gradually wake up.

But now the Chinese people have already suffered losses because of the trade war: the petty capitalists have fallen to the middle class, the middle class fell into the poor class, and the poor can hardly survive. If the recession continues, how many people will have patience to wait for the wake up of the big capitalists and wait for Xi Jinping to change course?

Therefore, as there is no power within the Chinese government to change the current policy and legal system, the only result will be to change China by violent revolution. It would be hard to avoid a huge turmoil in the Chinese society. Some people, especially those officials at various levels who have blood on their hands, will inevitably end without proper burial.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2018/WeiJS180802onTradewarResults.mp3

(Written and recorded on August 4, 2018. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1130-W761

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1130-W761

Release Date: August 5, 2018

发布日：2018年8月5日

Topic: Consequences of an Escalation of the Sino-US Trade War -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：贸易战升级的后果 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-08/WeiJS180805onTradewarResultsA1130-W761.htm

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贸易战升级的后果

-- 魏京生

现在的媒体上是一片欢呼或者哀鸣：中美贸易战再一次升级，中国用货币贬值来对抗贸易战的老套子，被人家提高税率给破解了。这对老百姓来说是个好消息：恶性通货膨胀有可能不会发生。虽然已经贬值了不少，但在美国压力下也可能停止滥发货币，让老百姓可以稍稍松一口气。

川普在坚决提高税率对抗习近平的花招的同时，也抛出了橄榄枝。据媒体报道，私下里的谈判并没有停止。而且川普还释放出了善意，停止执行对中兴公司的禁售令。释放的信号就是一切都可以谈判，但耍赖是不行的。过去那种边谈边违反的耍赖政策，现在不灵了。

中兴公司的模式很清楚：如果没有切实可行的措施保证执行承诺，美国不会接受只说不做的模式。以中国现在全社会丧失道德的状况，以中国现在灵活执法的状况，任何承诺和条约都没有保障。

美国的目标当然是解决巨额贸易逆差。但是现在大多数美国人终于认清了现实：那就是中国是个没有法制也没有道德的社会。仅仅承诺解决逆差没有任何意义，今天刚解决明天就可以再产生，就像多年来不断发生的那样。

等美国通过繁琐的程序质疑的时候，可以再承诺一次，周而复始不断耍赖。这就是中国玩了几十年的老花招。没有道德只有金钱，只要赚到了钱就是成功人士。邓小平早就说了：抓到老鼠的就是好猫，可以不择手段。所以中国政府的承诺从来就没有信用。

这一次美国人终于明白了：接受中国人的承诺必须附带惩罚措施，否则没有意义。所以这次贸易战的目标，就是改革中国的司法体系，使得经济附带上法律保障，才是可以接受的市场经济，也才可能是公平的贸易。没有法律保障的贸易不是公平贸易，只能是掠夺。说他们是重商主义太客气了，名不符实。

而习近平和他的官僚资产阶级不愿意接受这个现实，不愿意相信美国的目标是要公平的贸易。因为这样就失去了他们赚大钱的机会，他们不习惯也不愿意相信现实。美国的资本家也有相同的心态，他们习惯利用不公平的法律体系，在中国使用质优价廉的劳动力。共同的利益是他们帮助共产党给美国施加压力的动机。

由于美国民主体制的缺陷，大资产阶级的能量不可小觑。这段时间他们给国会施加的压力正在逐渐增长，美国国会正在酝酿抵消川普税收法的法案。这是习近平信心的来源。虽然国内也有头脑清醒的官员，虽然国内的大部分人都看到了贸易战没有胜算，但是代表中国官僚资产阶级的共产党不愿接受这个现实，贸易战可能还会持续一段时间。

等到什么时候这帮顽固的官僚才会接受现实呢？那就是经济不仅停滞，而且陷于崩溃；官僚资产阶级也没有钱可赚，甚至濒临破产的时候，他们才会逐渐醒悟过来。

但是人民现在就已经因为贸易战蒙受了损失：小资产阶级降为中产阶级，中产阶级降入到了贫穷阶级，穷人的日子到了过不下去的状况。如果经济衰退继续下去，有多少人还有耐心，等着大资产阶级们醒悟过来，等着小习改弦易辙呢？

所以官方内部没有力量改变现行的政策和法律体系，结果就只能是暴力革命来改变了。社会的大动荡也就难以避免了。有些人，特别是那些有血债的各级官僚们，难免死无葬身之地的下场。