Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1140-W770
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1140-W770
Release
Date: September 23, 2018
发布日：2018年9月23日
Topic:
Introduction and Transcript of the 2nd Half of Wei Jingsheng's Interview on RFA
"Viewpoint" Program: China Is on the Verge of "Dynasty
Change" (video link included)
标题：自由亚洲电台播出魏京生做客其【观点】节目，畅谈中国正处于"改朝换代"之际(录像及文字)
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Introduction
and Transcript of the 2nd Half of Wei Jingsheng's Interview on the RFA
"Viewpoint" Program: China Is on the Verge of "Dynasty
Change"
On
September 10, 2018, Radio Free Asia broadcast (https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/)
Wei Jingsheng as the guest of its "Viewpoint" program, talking about
China is on the verge of "Dynasty Change". The following are the details of this program include
transcript.
Original
link of this interview comes from RFA weblink:
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/duomeiti/tebiejiemu/pov-09102018160309.html
The
web link for the video is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPZP9om9sMY
__ __ __
Interview
of Wei Jingsheng (part II): China Is on the Verge of "Dynasty Change"
--
Viewpoint Program, Radio Free Asia
September
10, 2018
Moderator:
Greetings to the viewers. We are
the Viewpoint program of Free Asia Radio.
I am the hostess Tang Qiwei.
Today's viewpoint program will again visit the famous democracy activist
Wei Jingsheng. Mr. Wei has always
been opposed to the "peaceful, rational, and non-violent approach" in
China which was advocated by Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo. So what is the reason for his
opposition? In the view of Mr.
Wei, the current atmosphere in China is equivalent to the atmosphere of the
ancient times of dynasty change.
Why does he say that? Next,
let us go and listen to Mr. Wei Jingsheng's latest point of view.
Reporter:
Forty years have passed, and the Fifth Modernization -- democracy that you
pursued 40 years ago has not been realized in China. At the same time, the Communist regime did not collapse as
people expected, but instead became the world's second largest economy. What do you observe about such a status
quo?
Wei
Jingsheng: Americans are also reflecting on this now. The West, especially the Americans, made a huge
mistake. They always felt that
they should support the Chinese Communist regime to deal with the Soviet
Union. This is a Kissinger
strategy. In addition, many
Western scholars believed that when the Chinese economy developed, the Chinese
Communist regime would naturally collapse. But they did not see that capitalism does not necessarily
lead towards a democratic society.
China has a two thousand year old market economy system, which is much
longer and more developed than the West.
But China has been in a mode of managing the market economy by
authoritarian politics since ancient times. So that is why I had to do something against the Communist
regime on economic issues as soon as I come out of jail. We cannot afford to give economic
relief to the regime. When the
economic barriers are lifted, the Communists' days are much easier. Naturally, everyone would be happy with
this emperor, right? Both the Bush
administration and the Obama administration had the intention to correct this
mistake, but they did not do enough.
Now the Trump administration is doing a lot more, so you see the Chinese
government is in trouble, not just its economy. When the economy is in trouble, the internal politics of the
Communist Party also falls into trouble.
Reporter:
I know that you have always opposed the political belief of the Nobel Peace
Prize winner Liu Xiaobo, which is, "peaceful, rational, and
non-violence" in China.
Wei
Jingsheng: Right.
Reporter:
But I think a lot of people who support him think that if you do not support
"peace, rationality, and non-violence", if you use violence to
promote China's reform, there is no chance at all.
Wei
Jingsheng: When I first came here, American scholars also asked me this
question. My answer left them with
nothing else to say. Why? I said that you are Americans. Have you forgotten the history of the
United States? How democracy was
established in the United States?
Was it not built by violence?
Was not it established after the overthrow of the rule of the king? Of course, overthrowing does not
necessarily mean democracy could be established. The history of China shows that it was never established
after a dynasty was overthrown.
This slogan of "Peace, rationality, and non-violence" was
called out everyday, but you can see on the Internet that the vast majority of
Chinese, regardless they are overseas or inside China, think that was
wrong. I have promoted my thoughts
on this for twenty years. Why? The reason I am talking about is very
simple. "Peace, rationality,
and non-violence" is assumed within a democratic society, for example, to
discuss issues. Of course, we
should not use knives and guns.
Everyone should be rational.
If people still cannot agree with each other, then they use votes to
make the final say. Right? This is called "peaceful,
rationality and non-violence." However, how can you practice
"peaceful, rationality and non-violence" against a bandit when he is
pointing a gun at you? Even in the
United States, society cannot practice "peaceful rationality and
non-violence" with violent criminals. Otherwise, why would they need the police and the army?
Reporter:
But the Chinese people have no weapons, and the high-pressure rule in China is
so powerful.
Wei
Jingsheng: The so-called force does not necessarily mean what the average folk
have to take up arms to achieve their goals.
Reporter:
So what does violence mean, in your opinion?
Wei
Jingsheng: Since ancient times, events such as the Dazexiang Uprising at the
end of the Qin Dynasty, also called as the "Chen Sheng & Wu Guang
Uprising" only had the sharpened bamboos, right? Uprising could happen against the army with armors and fine
weapons. Moreover, historically,
the so-called violent revolutions do not have to be conducted by the average
folks, as some people within the ruling group would jump out. Some were competing to be the new
emperor. Some maybe just because
they could not stand it and had to fight, which include coups, military coups,
and court coups, etc. These all
are violent revolutions. In
particular, as the Communist regime is a violent regime, the biggest
possibility of overthrowing it will be by the use of violent means. It is unlikely that it will change by
itself. The Chinese Communist
regime basically relies entirely on violence and of course, on
brainwashing. It is an
authoritarian regime; an extremely authoritarian regime. If you deal with it, and you say that I
can succeed as I am peaceful protesting there is no such precedent.
Reporter:
The time leading up to June 4 Massacre in 1989 was a peak period in the Chinese
democracy movement.
Wei
Jingsheng: Yes.
Reporter:
Then why do you think that, after 1989, there has not been any similar,
sustainable and overall democratic movement in China?
Wei
Jingsheng: The first 10 years after 1989 were very important. During the period from 1989 to 1999, the
atmosphere of the democratic movement in China and abroad was still very strong
and there were many activities. At
that time, all classes, including the middle class and the intellectual class,
were very obviously leaning to democracy.
So why did I say at that time it was very important to oppose China's
permanent Most-Favored-Nation status and not let China join the WTO? The key is in the era of Jiang
Zemin. Jiang Zemin gave great
contributions to the Communist regime.
From that time on, the economy accelerated its development. Jiang Zemin had a policy called
"the combination of three elites" to bring intellectuals, including
businessmen, into the Communist Party.
After they became an interest group, first of all, these intellectuals
changed; second, the middle class changed; third, relatively a lot of ordinary
people also got a part of the benefits with some small sweetness. Their wages had also risen a bit, and the
income level had increased a little.
This little sweetness reduced the awareness of opposition and
resistance. So under such a big
environment, there have been 20 more years after Jiang Zemin, and the situation
of the democracy movement inside China and abroad has been at a low tide. This is because of environmental
reasons, instead of people not wanting democracy. In fact, if you ask most Chinese people, of course
privately, you will know they all want freedom and democracy, include those
inside of the Communist Party. Now
even Communist officials want to have a legal system and democracy, otherwise
even their own personal safety cannot be guaranteed.
Reporter:
Is there any possibility of fission within the Communist Party? This fission is not a dispute of
interests like Xi Jinping and Bo Xilai, but a different break like taking
different routes of Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang. Is there such a possibility? In the near future?
According to your observation.
Wei
Jingsheng: Actually, Zhao Ziyang did not want the Communist Party to collapse. He finally made a concession to Deng
Xiaoping, so Deng Xiaoping could send the military into Beijing (in 1989). Zhao saw the approach of a trend that
might lead to the situation that happened to the Soviet Union. Now the situation in China has also
reached a similar threshold.
Because of the first situation, the internal struggle within the
Communist Party has been fierce even before this. Economically, Chinese people cannot get much benefit. People also view the anti-corruption
campaign clearly; they do not trust the Communist Party much and say the
Communist Party is using the anti-corruption name to cleanse the Party. This cleansing the Party in the name of
anti-corruption has affected the interests of many Communist factions,
including threatening their personal security. Therefore, the resistance within the Communist Party has
become very strong. Xi Jinping is
very stupid, and he has ended the term limit. Just at this time, he also resolutely fights a trade war
against the USA. Is not this a
completely wrong decision?
Therefore, the main reason behind the opposition trend to stumble him
within the Communist Party now is probably due to this trade war. The public reason is this tenure
system: Xi should not be an emperor.
Reporter:
When I was chatting with you, you talked about the current atmosphere in China
-- it feels like the atmosphere of ancient times right before the change of a
dynasty. Why do you have such an
observation?
Wei
Jingsheng: According to the laws of the dynasties of the past, including the
laws of the West, when the conflicts of a society had brewed to a certain
extent, and the division of the ruling class became more and more serious, it
was time of a dynasty change.
Under this circumstance, various possibilities broke out, including a
coup to change the dynasty, or a peasant uprising to change the dynasty. Therefore, dynasty change is a way
forward when social conflicts need to be solved collectively, which were particularly
noticeable in China. The reason is
because the imperial power is very strong and powerful, and even powerful
enough to control people's minds.
Then the conflicts eventually will be resolved with a big elimination
and then a big solution. That is
to completely overthrow and then totally reshuffle, which become the only
way. At the beginning, everyone
was counting on Jiang Zemin for reform, and then they were counting on Hu
Jintao for reform. Now they are
counting on Xi Jinping for reform.
But 20 years have passed, and most people now understand that it is
impossible for the Communist Party to take the initiative to reform. In fact, I had already said long ago
why would these people in power, sitting on the high positions with both money
and power, want to give up all these benefits and everything, including that
they could freely kill people and set people's houses on fire? This time, according to my
observations, the pressure of opposition within the Communist Party has also
formed and is very strong. So
there is a possibility that Xi Jinping could be completely stripped of power
like the Hua Guofeng model, but only symbolically hold the leadership for two
more years.
Reporter:
Hua Guofeng did not fully grasp the military power in the past, but Xi Jinping
must be firmly grasp the military power...
Wei
Jingsheng: No. Even at the time of
Mao Zedong, Mao did not fully grasp the military, but held it only because the
factions within the military did not dare to go against Mao. That is because everyone had to admit
that Mao had very high prestige and high reputation. How can Xi Jinping have that kind of prestige? He had no association with the military
and no people within the military.
Reporter:
If he did not have this prestige, why did he dare to amend the constitution yet
no one dared to oppose him?
Wei
Jingsheng: This is often the case.
He created a situation and then made this happen. People from other factions may not have
wanted to fight with him alone at the time. This could be called an unimportant thing accomplished with
the votes to be passed. But when
he wants implement it, people will not want it. Even before he was a dictator, he had already ruined the
others. Now as Xi becomes a
dictator, everyone will have an even harder time. Therefore, this resistance within the Communist Party is
even stronger than among the average folk.
Reporter:
I know that the Communist regime has always been an operation within a black
box, and we are only observing the outcomes. Can you tell what kind of rebellious forces are the
strongest within the Communist Party?
Who in which faction are playing the roles?
Wei
Jingsheng: I think that all the factions are against Xi Jinping now, because he
has threatened the safety of everyone, including the faction of Wang Qishan who
used to work closely with him.
After the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Wang
became Xi's opposition faction as well.
Reporter:
Why are you saying this? Is there any evidence?
Wei
Jingsheng: The power of Wang Qishan was taken from him. In fact, before the 19th, there was a
very strong undercurrent, as the wind blown by Wang Qishan, saying that Xi
Jinping will step down at the 19th Congress to be replaced by another person,
which of course would be Wang. The
word has been scattered to the outside since the beginning of 2015, with public
opinion created within the senior cadres.
Therefore, the conflict between Wang Qishan and Xi Jinping has been
going on for quite a long time.
During the 19th Congress, for whatever reason, Wang Qishan's main power
was taken away. He had planned an
expansion of his own power regardless whether he replaced Xi Jinping during the
19th Congress. He would not only be
in charge of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the CCP, but
all political and legal systems would be unified under his umbrella. However, it is obvious that the 19th
Congress has cut him off, along with several other standing committee members. Of course, after he lost these powers,
the conflict between he and Xi Jinping could be said to be semi-open. All other factions have suffered under
both Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan.
In fact, all factions are now victimized,whch includes the faction of
Jiang Zemin that helped Xi Jinping came to power. Jiang's faction is the biggest one and now is against Xi as
well.
Reporter:
You have been saying that Xi Jinping's position is actually not safe. I would like to ask you if his status
is not guaranteed, will someone replace him?
Wei
Jingsheng: I just said half way.
First is to strip him of his power and replace him.
Reporter:
Get rid of him and replace. Who do
you think can replaced him?
Wei
Jingsheng: Replacing him is not a big possibility because they cannot find
someone who can replace him. So I
have to talk about the second possibility which is to restore a collective
leadership system for the Communist Party, by taking away all the dictatorial
powers of Xi Jinping, and let him be only a symbolic Secretary-General of the
CCP.
Reporter:
But if it reverts to the collective leadership system, there is still a long
way to the change of the dynasty you talked about.
Wei
Jingsheng: Actually, you have to understand in this way. Were not these several coups within the
Communist Party a change the dynasty as well, right? From the Liu Shaoqi dynasty to Mao Zedong dynasty, of
course, Mao Zedong also smashed a coup by Lin Biao which almost turned into a
Lin Biao dynasty, and then became the Deng Xiaoping dynasty.
Reporter:
But these are the same for the Chinese people. They are all dynasties ruled by the Communist Party.
Wei
Jingsheng: This is what everyone thinks is not very acceptable. The more acceptable one is the third
possibility. The second
possibility is the most likely, but there is a third possibility. It is that the rebound too big this
time, because everyone thinks they are not safe under Xi Jinping or Wang Qishan
in that position, thus they completely overthrow them.
Moderator:
Mr. Wei said that this third possibility of overthrowing Xi Jinping is probably
not realistic in the near future.
At present, the most likely is the second, that is, Xi Jinping still
holds his positions, but the decision-making power is transferred into a
collection system, and everyone will discuss it together. Mr. Wei said that a coup within the
Communist regime is probably the least costly way to build a democratic
China.
OK,
this has been the Viewpoint program.
Let us share different opinions. I am the hostess Tang Qiwei. Thank you very much for watching. We will see you again the next time.
Supervising:
Min Mitchell/Shen Hua
Producer/Video
Production: Tang Qiwei
Videotaping/Lighting:
Drew Kennedy
The
views of the guests do not necessarily represent Radio Free Asia.
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1140-W770
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1140-W770
Release
Date: September 23, 2018
发布日：2018年9月23日
Topic:
Introduction and Transcript of the 2nd Half of Wei Jingsheng's Interview on RFA
"Viewpoint" Program: China Is on the Verge of "Dynasty
Change" (video link included)
标题：自由亚洲电台播出魏京生做客其【观点】节目，畅谈中国正处于"改朝换代"之际(录像及文字)
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-09/WeiJSprofile2A180923RFAviewpointA1140-W770.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
自由亚洲电台播出魏京生做客其【观点】节目，畅谈中国正处于"改朝换代"之际
2018年9月10日，自由亚洲电台(网站：https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/)播出了魏京生做客其【观点】节目的下半部分，畅谈中国正处于"改朝换代"之际。以下为相关网站链接及文字内容。
相关采访在自由亚洲电台的网址为：
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/duomeiti/tebiejiemu/pov-09102018160309.html
相关视频的网址为：
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPZP9om9sMY
__ __ __
【观点】魏京生访谈（下）：中国正处于"改朝换代"之际
2018-09-10
主持人：你好，观众朋友，这里是自由亚洲电台的观点节目，我是主持人唐琪薇。今天的观点节目，我们要去拜访的还是著名的民运人士魏京生先生。对于诺贝尔和平奖得主刘晓波先生主张的"和平理性非暴力"，魏先生一直是持反对态度的。那么他反对的理由是什么？在魏先生看来，中国目前的气氛相当于古代改朝换代的气氛，他为什么那么说呢？接下来，我们就一起去听听魏京生先生的最新观点。
记者：四十年已经过去了，您四十年前追求的第五个现代化在中国至今没有实现。而与此同时，中共却没有象大家预料的那样走向崩溃，反而是变成了世界第二大经济体。您对这样一个现状做何观察呢?
魏京生：这个美国人现在也在反思。西方、特别主要是美国人犯了个极大的错误，他们总觉得去支持中国的共产党一起来对付苏联，这是一个基辛格的策略。另外很多西方学者，他们认为让中国经济发展起来了，共产党自然而然就要垮台，但是他们没有看到资本主义并不是走向民主社会的必经之路。中国有两千年的市场经济的体制，比西方长久得多也发达得多。但中国自古以来就是一个用专制政治来管理市场经济这么一个模式。所以我为什么一出来就在经济问题上要跟中共干一仗呢？不能给它经济上解禁。经济上给它解了禁，它把日子过好了，这皇上自然就当得大家信服了，对不对？小布什的政府和奥巴马的政府都有这种意图想纠正这个错误，但是做得都不够。现在川普政府做得力度要大一些，所以中国政府你看，它马上就陷入了困境。不光是经济陷入困境，经济可能陷入困境的话，共产党的内部也可能陷入困境。
记者：我知道您对诺贝尔和平奖获得者刘晓波的政治理念，也就是"和平理性非暴力"，是一直持反对态度的。
魏京生：对。
记者：但是我看很多支持他的人认为，如果您不支持"和平理性非暴力"的话，您如果用暴力的方式推动中国的变革根本是连机会都没有。
魏京生：我刚来，美国学者就问过（我）这个问题。我的回答让他们无话可说。为什么？我说你们自己是美国人，你们忘记了美国的历史了？美国的民主是靠什么建立的？不就是靠暴力反抗建立的？推翻国王的统治才建立起来的。当然，推翻了不一定建立。中国的历史就说明推翻了以后就没有建立。天天嚷嚷"和平理性非暴力"呢，你在网上可以看到，绝大多数不管海内海外中国人，都认为那是错误的。我宣传了十几、二十年了，为什么？我讲的道理很简单。"和平理性非暴力"是在比如民主社会，咱们人民内部自己讨论问题，那当然不能动刀动枪。大家得讲道理，实在讲不通最后投票，对不对？这叫"和平理性非暴力"。你跟那些匪徒怎么能"和平理性非暴力"？他拿枪对着你。就是美国，对那些犯罪分子，也不能"和平理性非暴力"啊。你要警察、要军队干什么？
记者：但是中国的民众他们也没有武器啊，然后中国高压统治得那么厉害。
魏京生：所谓暴力不一定非得是民众怎么样，怎么样。。。
记者：对，您说的暴力到底是什么意思？
魏京生：自古以来，你看大泽乡起义，秦朝末年大泽乡"陈胜武广起义"，拿的都是削尖了的竹子，对不对？对付那些穿着铠甲拿着精良武器的军队，他也可以起义。而且，从历史上看，所谓暴力革命不一定非得是民众起义，统治集团内部也会有人跳出来。有的是争夺新的政权想当皇帝；有的呢，可能也是因为受不了也要起来反抗一下了。甚至包括政变，军事政变啊、宫廷政变啊，这都是暴力革命啊。特别是中共这种靠暴力维持的政权，推翻它的最大可能就是使用暴力手段。你让他自己去改变，这种可能性不大。中共政权基本上就是完全依靠暴力的、当然也靠洗脑，它是一种专制政权，而且是极端专制的政权。你对付它的话，你说我就是和平抗议，我就能成功，没有这种先例的。
记者：中国的民运应该是"64"时是一个高峰时期。
魏京生：对，对。
记者：那您觉得"89"之后为什么中国再也没有出现类似的、可持续的、整体的民主运动呢？
魏京生：很重要一个就是开始这10年，89到99年这段时间，其实国内国外的民主运动气氛还是很浓，活动也很多。当时各个阶层包括中产阶级阶层、知识阶层倾向性都是很明显的。所以我为什么说当时PNTR，反对给中国永久最惠国待遇是很重要的，不让它加入WTO。关键在江泽民时代，江泽民给共产党立了很大功劳，从那个时候开始经济加快了发展。江泽民有个政策叫"三种精英相结合"，把知识分子、包括商人都笼络到共产党内部来。他们变成一个利益集团以后，首先这些知识分子变了；第二、中产阶级变了；第三、普通老百姓呢相当多的也得到了一部分的利益，小小的甜头。工资也涨了点，收入也多了点，小小的甜头使大家反对、反抗的意识下降。这样一个大环境下，所以在后面江泽民以后又20年了，整个国内国外的民运形势都处于低潮期。这是因为环境的原因，不是人们不想。其实你问大多数中国人，当然私下里问，大家谁都希望自由民主。包括共产党内的人，现在甚至包括当官的都希望有个法制和民主，否则他们自己的人身安全都得不到保障。
记者：在目前中共内部有没有可能出现一些裂变。这个裂变不是说象习近平、薄熙来这样的利益之争，而是类似当年邓小平和赵紫阳那样的路线不同的决裂？有没有这样一个可能？在近期内，据您观察。
魏京生：其实赵紫阳也并没有想要共产党垮掉。他最后向邓小平做了让步，邓小平才可以把军队派进来。他也不想让共产党垮台，这是他最后作出让步的一个原因。他看这个趋势发展下去，可能就会出现苏联这个情况了。现在这个局势也已经走到了门槛上了。因为第一现在共产党的党内斗争在这之前就已经很激烈了；经济上老百姓得不到什么好处；反腐也被老百姓看透了，说你们是利用反腐的名义清党，大家不太相信了。反过来这个清党，就影响到很多共产党内派系的利益，包括他们个人安全都受到威胁。所以党内反抗情绪已经很强烈了。习近平又很愚蠢，弄个取消任期制，这个国内内部的就有口实了。刚好这个时候又打起贸易战，他又要坚决打贸易战，这是个完全错误的决策么。所以党内现在反对他要把他掀倒的潮流，主要的原因可能就是因为这个贸易战，公开的理由就是这个任期制。你不能当皇帝。
记者：我之前和您聊天的时候，您谈到中国目前气氛的感觉相当于古代改朝换代的气氛，您为什么会有这样一个观察？
魏京生：根据历朝历代的规律包括西方的规律，当社会的矛盾酝酿到一定程度，而且引起到统治阶层的分裂越来越严重的时候，就到了改朝换代的时候了。在这个情况下就爆发各种可能性，包括政变改朝换代、
农民起义改朝换代，所以改朝换代它是社会矛盾需要总的解决的一个方式，在中国就特别明显。因为皇权非常稳固强大、甚至强大到控制人的头脑。那么在这个情况下，这些矛盾要最终得到解决，就是一个大消灭，然后大解决。就是彻底推翻重新洗牌，只能是这样了。开始大家指望江泽民改革，又指望胡锦涛改革，现在又指望习近平改革。这一晃20年过去了，现在大多数人终于明白，共产党主动去改革是不可能的。其实我早就说过，这些人掌权坐在高位上，又有钱又有权，要什么有什么，杀人放火都没事，这么多好处他为什么要放弃呢？这次据我的观察也是党内反对的压力形成了，而且很强大。所以有一种可能是他象华国锋模式那样彻底被夺权了，只象征性的再当上两年。
记者：华国锋当年是没有完全掌握军权，但习近平应该是牢牢掌握军权。。。
魏京生：没有，哪里。老毛那个时候都没有完全掌握军队，只不过不管哪个派系的军队都不敢反毛。因为大家都得承认毛威信很高、声望很高。你习近平哪有那个威望啊？他自己过去跟军队没有什么关系，手下没有人。
记者：他当初没有威望的话，为什么当初他要修宪却没有一个人敢反对呢？
魏京生：这个事往往就是这样，他造成了一个形势然后把这个事搞成了。其它派系的人开始可能是不想单独跟他拼。这可以说是一件不重要的事搞成了，投票通过了。但是能不能实行这个大家就不干了。你没当独裁者以前大家就已经被你整得稀里哗啦了，你现在又成了独裁者了，大家日子都会不好过。所以这个在党内的反抗甚至比老百姓还要强烈。
记者：我知道中共一直以来都是黑箱操作，我们也只是一个观察。您觉得党内的那些反抗势力最主要是来自哪些反抗势力，是哪个派系的人物在做呢？
魏京生：我看现在反对习近平的是所有派系了，因为他威胁到所有人的安全了，包括过去和他合作很紧密的王岐山的派系，19大以后也成了他对立的派系了。
记者：为什么您这么说？有什么证据呢？
魏京生：王岐山的权被夺了。实际上19大以前有个很浓的空气，就是王岐山放的风，19大要习近平下台，要换人，当然换的是他。这个从2015年开始就有这个风在外头散了，而且是在高级干部里头造舆论。所以王岐山和习近平的矛盾是相当长一段时间了。在这个情况下现在不管什么原因，王岐山主要权力被夺走了。他本来设想19大以后不管搞不搞倒习近平，至少他自己权力要扩大。他不光是中纪委了，所有的政法系统都要统一在他旗下。但是很明显，19大把他给削掉了，跟着其他几个常委一块下去了。当然下去以后，他跟习近平的矛盾就可以说是半公开化了。那么其它派系都被习近平、王岐山整过，其实现在受害的是所有派系。包括推举习近平上来的江系，最大的派系，现在也在反他了。
记者：您刚才一直在说习近平其实是地位不保，我想请教下您觉得他地位不保后，是有人取而代之吗？
魏京生：这个刚才说了半截，第一种是把他弄掉，取而代之。
记者：把他弄掉取而代之，您觉得谁可以取而代之呢？
魏京生：这种可能性不大，因为你找不出一个能代之的人。所以我要说第二种可能性就是恢复一个集体领导制。把习近平所有独裁权力取消，总书记你就做个象征性的就可以了。
记者： 所以恢复到集体制的话，离您之前说的改朝换代还是有很大距离啊。
魏京生：其实你要这么理解，共产党前面几次政变不也是改朝换代么，对不对？从刘家王朝变成毛家王朝，当然老毛还粉碎了一次林彪的（政变）差点变成林家王朝，然后又变成邓家王朝。
记者：但是对民众来说都是一样的，都是共产党统治的王朝。
魏京生：这个就是大家觉得不是很接受的，更接受的一个就是第三种可能。第二种可能是可能性最大的，但是还有第三种可能。就是这次引起的反弹太大，因为大家觉得习近平不管怎么样他在那个位置上、包括王岐山在那个位置上，大家都不安全，那么就彻底把他们掀翻。
主持人：魏先生说，这种把习近平全部掀翻的第三种可能，恐怕近期并不现实。目前最有可能的是第二种，也就是习近平仍然在位、但是决策权转成集体制，大家一起商量。魏先生表示，中共内部发生政变，恐怕是建立民主中国代价最小的方法。好，观点节目，让我们分享不一样的观点，我是主持人唐琪薇，非常感谢您的收看。下次节目，我们再会。
监制：Min Mitchell/申铧
制片人/视频制作：唐琪薇
拍摄/灯光：Drew Kennedy
节目嘉宾观点并不一定代表自由亚洲电台
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魏京生基金会及中国民主运动海外联席会议以推动中国的人权与民主为己任。
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