Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1148-W777

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1148-W777

Release Date: October 21, 2018

发布日：2018年10月21日

Topic: Will There Be a War Between China and the United States? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中美必有一战吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Will There Be a War Between China and the United States?

-- Wei Jingsheng

The current Chinese media has become accustomed to publishing articles without the author's name. In other words, as in some online media, one can talk nonsense irresponsibly. So I rarely read Chinese articles without authors' names. A few days ago, when I appeared in the same talk show with Professor Xia Ming, he reminded me that Xi Jinping might engage in some military operations in the South China Sea and threaten the United States in an attempt to stop the trade war. Because indeed Xi Jinping does not have any trade card to play, he needs to use a so-called "quality means", including the means of war.

I was shocked and thus scanned through the websites which liked to make irresponsible nonsense. Indeed, there were full screams of war. In the past two days, I saw Chinese warships provoking the US warships in the South China Sea. Thus I have to correct my prediction that Xi Jinping does not dare to launch a war.

Given a war between China and the USA, China will be defeated. However, Xi Jinping may not be so smart. His flatterers are constantly exemplifying, in the name of self-reliance, the Korean War, etc. They say that over all there are many advantages for China to win the war, even including that young American soldiers would not be the opponents to the Chinese army.

Both Chinese and foreign military experts, as long as they do not need to flatter or are not brain-damaged, are all clear that China would be defeated in a war between China and the USA. The so-called self-reliance, the Korean War and other claims are stinking chess tricks by outsiders that could not make the point.

There are many factors to determine the outcome of a war. We can compare and see the difference between the Korean War and the present day. At that time, the United States had ended the Second World War five years previously, without too many veterans and the society was generally filled with a disliking of war. However, China had just ended its civil war. Its military was experienced and was a winner. The morale was strong. This attitude offset the gap between weapons and equipment.

The Second World War did not touch the soil of the United States, with the new recruits lived a wealthy and stable life at home. They were not able to take hardship and endure difficulties. Yet, the Chinese people had been experiencing decades of war and were very hardworking and able to endure difficulties. This relative gap just offset the shortcomings of the supply shortage of the Chinese military. Coupled with the US military's long-distance overseas operations, it was not as flexible as the Chinese military. After these comparisons, it can be said that the two sides were evenly matched, and the final result was also an exact match.

The situation now is almost reversed. The military reform in China has made the military unsettled; the dictator lacks his own garrison or assault squad; the discipline and endurance of the Chinese soldiers are now less than that of the US military; years of peace have also caused the commanders short of prestige to convince their bosses and subordinates. The art of the Chinese military command is hard to predict, but lack of experience is surely a factor of disadvantage.

China's weapons and equipment are well known to everyone, and lag way behind what the USA can bring to the field. With what other advantages can it challenge the US military? Maybe that famous left-handed salute by Xi Jinping during the military parade, and the rhetoric he learned from the Cultural Revolution era. But can these things be useful?

Under the premise that both North Korea and Taiwan are too difficult, the Xi Jinping clique, which has no military quality, choosing the South China Sea, which then would make it fall into a trap without hope. The Navy is the strength of the United States and is an absolute strength. Can Xi use a few small islands on the South China Sea that cannot be moved to become an opponent of the US Navy? That would be the fantasy of a person with brain damage.

The result of launching a war in the South China Sea would make China forever lose its right to dispute in the South China Sea. This is basically a trap set up by the Trump administration. This is also the reason why Chinese netizens support Xi Jinping's war in the South China Sea. When this war is started, China will be defeated, and the Communist regime will die sooner. However, the Chinese people will fall into a catastrophe and be buried with the Xi Jinping clique that is suffering from this brain damage. The suffering of the Chinese people will make me feel unbearable.

In addition, this brain damaged Xi Jinping clique thinks the USA does not dare to fight in a war against China, as they see the Defense Secretary Mattis keeps hoping to talk friendly with China. Thus they began to provoke in the South China Sea in an effort to recover some public opinion for the Xi Jinping clique.

Yet, the Xi clique does not know that the US Secretary of Defense and President Trump are really playing a two-man comic show. In Sun Tzu's art of war, this is called using the illusion of unable to fool the others. When this clique cannot even see a simple trick like this, it does mean that the clique is a bad chess player.

Of course, we cannot blame them. That is because their abilities are used to flatter their boss and in trying to see what the boss wants, so it is difficult to ask them to be smarter than this brain-damaged level.

Original link of the RFA commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-10042018154748.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2018/WeiJS181003onChinaUSwar.mp3

(Written and recorded on October 3, 2018. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1148-W777

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1148-W777

Release Date: October 21, 2018

发布日：2018年10月21日

Topic: Will There Be a War Between China and the United States? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中美必有一战吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2018/report2018-10/WeiJS181021onChinaUSwarA1148-W777.htm

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中美必有一战吗？

-- 魏京生

现在的中文媒体，已经习惯于没有作者署名。也就是说，和网络媒体一样，可以胡说八道不负责任。所以我很少看这些不署名的中文作者。前几天在和夏明教授的一个访谈节目中，他提醒我说，习近平可能会在南海搞些军事行动，威胁美国停止贸易战。因为习近平确实没什么贸易牌可打了，需要动用所谓的质量型手段，包括战争手段。

我心下一惊，看了看喜欢不负责任胡说八道的网站，果然充斥着大量战争的叫嚣。这两天又看见中国军舰在南海挑衅美国军舰的事件，不得不修改习近平不敢发动战争的预测。

因为我们看中美之战，中国必败，习近平不一定有这么聪明。他的马屁精们正在不断举例说明：什么自力更生呀，朝鲜战争呀，总之优势很多，战则必胜，乃至美国的少爷兵不是我们的对手等等。

军事专家们，无论中外只要不需要拍马屁或者脑残，都很清楚中美之战中国必败。所谓的自力更生，朝鲜战争之类的说法，都是臭棋篓子支招--外行，说不到点子上。

决定战争胜负的因素很多，我们可以比较一下朝鲜战争和现在有什么不同。当时美国结束第二次世界大战已经五年，老兵都不在了，社会也普遍蔓延着厌战的气氛。而中国刚刚结束国内战争，军人们经验丰富，又是乘胜之师，士气旺盛。这抵消了武器装备的差距。

二次大战并没有触及美国本土，新兵们在家里过的是富裕安定的生活，不怎么吃苦耐劳。而中国人已经经历几十年的战乱，很能吃苦耐劳。这个相对的差距，刚好抵消了中国军队供应不足的缺陷。再加上美军远途出国作战，不如中国军队调动灵活。可以说比较下来双方势均力敌，最终的结果也正是个和局。

现在的情况差不多都反过来了。中国的军改搞得军心不稳；独裁者又缺乏自己的禁卫军或者冲锋队；士兵们的纪律性和忍耐力甚至不如美军；多年和平也造成将帅们没有上下信服的威望。中国军队指挥艺术上难以预测，但缺少经验是肯定的不利因素。

中国的武器装备更是大家都心知肚明，差的不是一星半点。还有什么优势可以和美军叫板呢？只剩下习近平那著名的左手敬礼，和文革时期学来的豪言壮语。那东西能有用吗？

在朝鲜和台湾两个目标困难的前提下，毫无军事素质的习近平集团选择南海，那更是毫无希望地掉进了陷阱。海军是美国的强项，而且是绝对的强项。靠南海上的几座不能移动也面积不大的小岛，能成为美国海军的对手吗？十足的脑残。

发动南海战争的结果就是中国永远失去南海的争议权，这根本就是川普政府设下的陷阱。这也是中国网民支持习近平在南海一战的原因，战则必败，中共也就死得快了。但是中国老百姓又将陷入一场浩劫，给习近平集团的这帮脑残陪葬。这让我于心不忍。

补充一句，小习的这帮脑残们看见美国的防长不断希望与中国友好谈话，就以为美国不敢打仗，所以在南海开始挑衅，帮助习近平集团挽回一点舆论上的损失。

殊不知美国国防部长和川普总统是在唱双簧。在孙子兵法上，这叫做能而示之以不能，也就是以不能的假象来欺骗对方。连这么简单的假动作都看不出来，确实符合臭棋篓子的称号。

当然也不能怪他们。因为他们的能力都用在了迎合上意，很难要求他们在其它方面高于脑残的水平。

魏京生在自由亚洲电台评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-10042018154748.html