Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1177-W805

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1177-W805

Release Date: January 1, 2019

发布日：2019年1月1日

Topic: Outlook of 2019 New Year -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：2019新年展望 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-01/WeiJS190101on2019NewYearA1177-W805.htm which contains identical information.

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Outlook of 2019 New Year

-- Wei Jingsheng

Everyone is familiar with things of last year, so I do not want to waste time. What everyone more cares about should be how things will develop this year. The first concern may be how the Sino-USA trade war will go on; what will happen after the ninety-day period. So let us take a rough analysis below.

Most of the people within the Communist leadership, those who understand the current state of the Chinese economy, are eagerly urging Xi Jinping to bow to the United States and admit his mistakes in exchange for a truce to overcome the tide of the economic recession that has already surged in China. Undoubtedly, this would be an extremely wise decision.

Avoiding those profound technical terms, let me use some truthful metaphor that the common people can understand: As you are facing an opponent stronger than you, while you are tired and weak, if you choose to fight against the opponent it means you seek death. What is more, it is your fault while the opponent is justified, which means you are seeking death without an opportunity to come back to life.

The Chinese media now are helping Xi Jinping with its propaganda, with nonsense like "the American imperialists want to kill us", etc. In fact, the opposite is true. The current policy of the Trump Administration is on one hand to solve the immediate worries of the US economy, and on the other hand is to help the Chinese economy carry out structural reform, so that the Chinese economy can return to the normal path and become a sustainable economic model.

Why do I say that? For example, from the perspective of science and technology, why cannot China's science and technology develop by itself, instead of always relying on stealing and robbing the others? The root cause is twofold. One is the lack of market incentives. The other is no legal guarantee. Stealing and looting plus cheating is the easiest way to make a fortune, so very few people really have the motivation for invention and creation. What is more, no one is willing to invest, and the investment from the state government has also shifted to the real estate market. What else can be left besides stealing and looting?

Only at the end of 2018 did the Trump administration show its cards -- that is to ask China to have structural reforms, which is to have marketization and legal reforms. Moreover, the current administration is also taking more and more strict measures to prevent China from stealing and looting. If China's economy does not want to die, it will have to honestly buy things from the other on one hand and invent its own on the other, while providing legal safeguards to protect the invention.

Without marketization and legal reform, how can it be honest? Where comes the motivation? This is not only the need of the Americans, but also the urgent need of the Chinese ourselves. Therefore, the Chinese should carry out structural reforms via the wind of the Trump administration. It is impossible to continue the shameful era by relying on the blood transfusion of the USA and the development of the economy by stealing and looting.

Are the Chinese people that stupid and can not develop their own technology and management? I think the opposite is true. In view of China's population that is larger than the entire Western population, with China's current level of education is not too far behind, it should not be too far behind the West in the fields of technology and economy. In this regard, Taiwan is a very good example, as well as some creations made in China. Unfortunately, because of an over all bad environments, this creativity only becomes a miracle.

In this case, why don't people in both the international community and in China think that the Communist regime will not carry out structural reforms, and think that instead, Xi Jinping will make the Sino-USA trade war a protracted war? There are even some elite who insist on self-reliance and claim to fight to the end even as everyone has only grass to chew on, without the soybeans and pork from the USA. Have they thought and cared about the Chinese people and China?

They have never cared about the Chinese and China, they only care about their bureaucratic capitalists and profiteers. The miracle of economic development in China during the past two decades was a miracle created by the blood and sweat of the Chinese people, but it has become a miracle of these bureaucratic capitalists and profiteers. The common Chinese are still living in hardship and difficulty without the comfort of these miracles.

If the marketization and legal reform is carried out, the miracle will be transferred to the Chinese people. Are these bureaucratic capitalists and profiteers willing? Those bureaucratic capitalists and profiteers in China who got these miracles will lose their paradise; are they willing? Those bureaucratic capitalists who are still lawless will be governed and sanctioned by the law; are they willing?

This is the last card of Xi Jinping and these bureaucratic capitalists.