Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1179-W807

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1179-W807

Release Date: January 6, 2019

发布日：2019年1月6日

Topic: Xi Jinping Has Messed Up Again -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平又搞砸了 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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Xi Jinping Has Messed Up Again

-- Wei Jingsheng

Recently for some reason, many people are saying that Xi Jinping's IQ is low. But Xi himself is not convinced, and recently just made another high-profile move called unification with Taiwan by military force. In addition, he also talked about "one country two systems". If Xi wants to take over Taiwan with military force, then just as well to state so. But when he added this "one country two systems" it really confused others as what he wants to do. The effect is that Taiwan's public opinion has suddenly turned around, and even the politicians who have always wanted to surrender to the Mainland have all stood up against it. Xi Jinping really messed it up.

Why is there such a sudden turned around in Taiwan? That is because Xi Jinping is really mentally retarded. He has been an official right across the Taiwan Strait for decades, but he does not understand the basic ideas of the Taiwanese. This only shows that his ingenuity is used in the tactics and promotion, and simply without a mind for other things. This is also true of an autocratic system, where those who could have achieved something for the people have long been eliminated.

Everyone knows the basic mentality of the Taiwanese who are unwilling to be ruled by the Communist Party. The strategy of engagement in the 1992 consensus was to use the one-country, two-system system to fool the people who are not educated about this trick and the mindless intellectuals so they tolerated the Taiwanese version of the "one country two systems".

Now that Xi Jinping laid unification through the military on the table, everyone immediately realized that it was wrong, just like the fox finally showing his tail. Cannot you be vigilant? This is simply selling his allies in Taiwan which made them incoherent. They said that they do not want this "one country two systems" on one hand, yet standing on the 1992 consensus on the other. It is like an incompetent liar in front of the public, which has made them pitiful.

Is Xi Jinping really capable of unification with Taiwan via military force? The Tsai Ing-wen government in Taiwan cried out for assistance from the international community. I do not know if it is truly a lack of understanding or just acting so. In short, Xi Jinping simply does not have the conditions to use military force. If he uses military force, he is seeking his own death. Other Communist officials will also stop him from doing it. In my opinion, he just wants to incite nationalism to save his current predicament.

The Hong Kong and Taiwan media have often claimed that Xi Jinping has controlled military power after two military reforms. This fully shows the poor thinking of some reporters, while others are just following along. The military reforms of Xi Jinping seem to be learned from the US military, but that was just an excuse. In fact, these "reforms" have totally disoriented the Chinese military, for the purpose of impeding each other thus to prevent a military coup. The other side effect is that the army is seriously losing its combat effectiveness.

In addition to the fact that victory is unpredictable when using the military, there is insecurity at the back: in the east, there is the United States watching aggressively at North Korea, in the south and the west there are two wolves in Vietnam and India, and in the north there is Russia that is not so friendly. Once the war is deadlocked, they will all move accordingly. By that time, even if Xi Jinping does not want to sell China, he could not prevent it. Moreover, when the war started, an economic blockade would be the minimum situation. How could the ordinary Chinese make a living?

Xi Jinping wants to incite nationalism again, which is also a bad move. It will not make him successful but will contribute to his failure. This move is to deal with the failure of the trade war. However, everyone knows that this nationalism is a double-edged sword. This time, it is used to the extreme by Xi Jinping.

In the past, nationalism was indeed played favorably by the Communist regime, so this time it got repeated. But now is not the same as before anymore. This time, both sides of the sword will hurt Xi Jinping. If Xi does not make concessions to the United States, the Chinese economy will be greatly declining, the Chinese people will have a hard time to live, and his political opponents will blame Xi for bringing on a national disaster. Nationalism would be one of the flags that defeat him.

If Xi Jinping has to make concessions to Trump, then nationalism will accuse him of betraying national interests, which is still a strong evidence to defeat him. According to his current plan, it is very likely that Xi will not make concessions, and meanwhile launch a war. According to the above analysis, undoubtedly he will be defeated, so he will be ousted even before the war got launched. Nationalism is just one of the best reasons, just like back then when they arrested the wife of Mao Zedong.

Therefore, I say that indeed Xi messed up this time, exactly due to his plan of military unification by taking over Taiwan and encouraging nationalism. Every lane would be a dead end, according to his current plan. There is still one feasible way out though, which is to implement the political reforms in line with the wishes of the Chinese people; and to comply with the demand of structural reforms by the United States, thus to calm down this trade war and to overcome the difficulties of economic recession in China.

These two reforms complement each other. Without market-oriented reforms, the United States will certainly gradually increase its weight, and the Chinese economy will surely collapse. Without a reform of legal system, there would be no fair market. Yet the biggest problem in the reform of the legal system is that the Communist Party is higher than the law and there is no political system to protect human rights.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS190105onXiJPonTaiwan.mp3

(Written and recorded on January 5, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1179-W807

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1179-W807

Release Date: January 6, 2019

发布日：2019年1月6日

Topic: Xi Jinping Has Messed Up Again -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平又搞砸了 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-01/WeiJS190106onXiJPonTaiwanA1179-W807.htm

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习近平又搞砸了

-- 魏京生

最近不知道怎么搞的，都说习近平智商低。可咱们习总就是不服气，最近又出了一次高招，叫做武统台湾，还一国两制。你武统就直接武统，还加上一个一国两制，不知道你到底要干什么？效果就是台湾舆论一下子就翻盘了，连一向要投靠大陆的政治家们都齐声反对。真的是搞砸了。

为什么台湾会翻盘？就是因为习近平真的弱智。他在台湾对面当了几十年的官，居然根本不懂台湾人的基本想法。这只能说明他的聪明才智都用在了权谋和升官术上了，其它的东西根本就无所用心。这也是专制体制的规律，有所用心的人早就被淘汰了。

人人都知道台湾人民的基本心态，就是不愿意被共产党统治。当年搞九二共识的策略，就是用一国两制来忽悠没文化的老百姓和没头脑的知识分子，所以容忍了一中各表的台湾版两制表述。

小习把武统拿上台面，大家立刻就发现不对了，就像狐狸终于露出了尾巴。能不警惕吗？这简直就是出卖台湾的盟友，让他们语无伦次了。他们一面说不要一国两制，一面说还要九二共识，在公众面前就像个无能的骗子，怪可怜的。

习近平果然能武统吗？蔡英文政府哭着喊着要求国际社会援助，不知道是真不懂还是装得像。总之，习近平根本就不具备动武的条件，他要动武就是找死。中共的其他官员也会阻止他蛮干。我看他就是想煽动民族主义，来解救他目前的困境。

港台媒体常说习近平通过两次军改掌握了军权，这充分说明了有些记者是臭棋篓子，有些则是人云亦云。小习的军改看起来像是学习美军，但那只是个借口。实际上是把军队改得兵不知将，将不知兵，目的是可以互相掣肘防止兵变，另一面的副作用就是军队严重流失战斗力。

除了出兵难料胜负以外，就是背后不安全：东面美国对北朝鲜虎视眈眈，西面和南面有越南和印度两只狼，北面的俄国也不那么友好。一旦战局僵持不下，他们都会有所动作。届时习近平想不卖国，都不可得了。何况战事一开，经济封锁就是起码的底线。老百姓的日子可怎么过呀？

小习想重新煽动民族主义，也是臭棋一招，成事不足败事有余。这招臭棋是为了应对贸易战的失败。不过大家都知道这民族主义是个双刃剑，这一次被小习用到了极致，可谓炉火纯青。

过去民族主义确实被中共捡到过便宜，所以这一次又故伎重演。但此一时彼一时也，这次两面都会伤到习近平。如果小习不向美国让步，经济大幅度衰退，民不聊生，政治对手会说小习带来了民族灾难。民族主义就是打倒小习的旗帜之一。

如果小习不得不向川普让步，民族主义就会指责他出卖民族利益。仍然是打倒他的有力证据。按照小习目前的计划，很可能是既不让步同时又要开战。按上述分析就是必败无疑，那就不等开战大家就要把他赶下台。民族主义正好是最好的理由之一，就像当年抓了毛泽东夫人一样。

所以我说小习这次搞砸了，正是他的武统计划和民族主义。按照他现在的路数走下去，每一条都是死胡同。可行的做法还来得及，就是顺应人民的愿望政治改革；并顺应美国的要求结构性改革，来平息这场贸易战，渡过经济衰退的难关。

这两个改革相辅相成。没有市场化的改革美国肯定会逐步加码，中国经济必会陷入崩溃。没有法制化的改革，就没有公平的市场。而法制改革的最大难题，就是党大于法的，没有人权保障的政治体制。