Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1181-W809

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1181-W809

Release Date: January 13, 2019

发布日：2019年1月13日

Topic: Has China Really Risen As the Great Power? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中国真的大国崛起了吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Has China Really Risen As the Great Power?

-- Wei Jingsheng

Recently, many scholars are talking about the rise of a great power, and the so-called Thucydides trap. It seems that this is the situation between China and the United States now. The hidden context is that China has risen and the United States has declined -- Finally, Mao Zedong's prophecy of many years ago is realized, as the East wind would overwhelm the West.

It is very normal for the imperial scholars of the Communist regime to say so. But it is very suspicious for the so-called scholars in the West also to say so. If it was only the average people and folk artists who have no knowledge talking in the way of storytelling, it is normal. But if you want to remind the Americans to be careful, then both good and bad are possible. If one claims that these are historically inevitable and irreversible, we have to be doubtful.

That is because people with a bit of historical knowledge know that the rising of so-called great powers were all due to the advantages of social institutions or ideologies. Just having money has never been an advantage, not to mention that the Communist regime has not been the richest. Even with its stealing money and technology, in addition to cruelly exploiting the people, it is still far behind the West. So how is it this "great power" could rise?

Some history lovers will immediately question: In the history of China, there were times when backward cultures won over advanced cultures. In fact, this is a conclusion when one is reading without full understanding and repeating what others said. These conclusions came from ancient scholars who served in the imperial courts with prejudice, who stood by Han Supremacy.

For example, when the Mongolians and the Manchurians defeated the Song Dynasty and the Ming Dynasty of the Han peoples, they were not backward nationals who defeated advanced nations. The commentators did not notice that these Mongolians and Manchurians had already learned a full set of advanced systems and cultures before they defeated the Han regimes. At that time, the Han regimes had already decayed, which meant a serious deterioration in the implementation of systems. This is the real reason for the failure.

If it was not that the system and culture had been assimilated by the Hans, how can we explain the effective ruling after aggression? After the Country of Liao and the Country of Jin occupied northern China, also after the Mongolians and Manchurians occupied the whole China, they all implemented more stable and effective rule than the previous Han regime. This exactly proved that the system and culture had already converged without difference. That was just a new regime that defeated a decaying regime.

On the contrary, for the backward political systems such as the Huns and Turks, even when they won the wars, they could not rule long the Han areas which had more advanced cultural systems. This illustrates that culture and institutions are fundamental, while military power is a secondary factor. During the Qing Dynasty, although the Beiyang Fleet was a very strong naval power, it could only be defeated badly.

Some people say that the core of culture is ideological value, so universal values will inevitably defeat backward ideologies. This is true as a law for some historians, but may not be the case in reality. For example, it happened twice in Central Asia during the Middle Ages where ideology determined the development of history, in violation the so-called law of universal values.

One was the Battle of Talas; the other was the Battle of Qatwan. Both were wars of emerging Islamic culture and declining Buddhist culture. Both were also wars of advanced Chinese culture and the backward culture west of China. One battle won, while the other lost, with both determining the historical process afterwards. However, during the Battle of Talas, the social system of Central Asian countries lagged behind the Arabs of Islam. At the Battle of Qatwan, the West Liao Kingdom of the Khitan people had a social system far more advanced than the Seljuk dynasty of the Turk Muslims, so it was able to defeat them with less military power, which decided history for several hundred years following.

The conclusion is that in the laws of history, the advancement of the system is the most important factor, and ideology is more important than the economy and the military. From this conclusion, the so-called decline of the USA and the rise of China is indeed a false proposition. To the most, it exists in a few crazy minds that do not know enough about history. Of course, the scholars who take money from the capitalists and make a living from the Communist regime are not mentally handicapped -- but their butts decide where their heads would be.

According to the current historical law, the trade war between the United States and China is subjectively aimed by the USA to stop economic aggression from China, while objectively to help China to learn advanced social systems by defeating it. If China does not have real reforms in its political system and its legal system, the purpose of the United States will not be achieved. The substantial reform of the political system and the legal system is precisely the urgent need of modernization for China.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS190112onChinaRising.mp3

(Written and recorded on January 12, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1181-W809

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1181-W809

Release Date: January 13, 2019

发布日：2019年1月13日

Topic: Has China Really Risen As the Great Power? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中国真的大国崛起了吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-01/WeiJS190113onChinaRisingA1181-W809.htm

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中国真的大国崛起了吗？

-- 魏京生

最近很多学者在谈论大国崛起，还有什么修昔底德陷阱。好像这就是如今的中美两国形势。潜台词就是中国崛起了，美国衰落了--终于实现了毛泽东多年前的预言，东风压倒了西风。

中共的御用学者这么说，还很正常。西方的所谓学者也这么说，就很可疑了。如果是没什么学问的老百姓和民间艺人在说评书，那很正常。如果是想提醒美国人小心，就好坏两说着了。如果说这是什么历史必然，不可逆转，就值得怀疑了。

因为有点历史知识的人，都知道所谓的大国崛起，都是社会制度或者意识形态的优势造成的。仅仅有钱从来就不是什么崛起的优势，何况共产党还不是最有钱的。即使靠偷钱偷技术再加上残酷剥削老百姓，也还比人家西方差得远，哪儿来的什么大国崛起？

有历史爱好者会马上提出质疑说：中国历史上多次发生落后文化战胜先进文化。其实这都是读书不求甚解的结论，而且还人云亦云，从古代有偏见的体制内学者那儿听来的，也就是大汉族主义穷酸秀才。

例如说辽金蒙古人满州人战胜大汉族主义的宋朝和明朝，就不是什么落后民族战胜先进民族。论者们都没有注意到，他们战胜汉族政权之前，就已经学习了全套的先进制度和文化了。而当时的汉族政权已经腐朽化，也就是制度执行上严重退化。这才是失败的真正原因。

如果不是制度和文化已经汉族化，怎么解释侵略后可以执行有效的统治呢？辽金占领中国北方后，蒙满占领全中国后，都实行了比汉族政权更稳定有效的统治，恰恰证明了制度和文化早已经趋同，没有什么差别。那只是一个新生的政权战胜腐朽的政权而已。

相反，像匈奴和突厥那种落后的政治制度，即使战争获胜，也无法长期统治先进文化制度的汉族地区。这说明文化和制度是根本，军事力量是次要的因素。你北洋水师有再强大的海军力量，也只能是败得很惨。

有人说文化的核心是意识形态价值观念，所以普世价值必然战胜落后的意识形态。这从历史规律来说是对的，现实中未必如此。例如中世纪发生在中亚地区的两次带有意识形态色彩，而且决定了历史发展的战争，就违反了所谓的规律。

一次是怛罗斯战役；另一次是卡特万战役。都是新兴的伊斯兰教文化和衰落的佛教文化的战争。也都是先进的中国文化和落后的西亚文化的战争。一胜一败，都决定了之后的历史进程。但是怛罗斯战役的时候，中亚各国的社会制度落后于伊斯兰教的阿拉伯。卡特万战役时，西辽国也就是契丹，社会制度远比突厥赛尔柱帝国先进，所以以少胜多，决定了之后几百年的历史。

结论就是：在历史的规律中，制度的先进是最重要的因素，意识形态也比经济和军事更重要。以此而论，所谓中国崛起美国衰落，的确是个伪命题。最多存在于少数智商不够，也不懂历史的疯狂头脑之中。当然，拿资本家的钱，吃共产党饭的学者们并不弱智，所谓屁股决定脑袋而已。

按现在已知的历史规律来看，美国和中国的这场贸易战，主观上是美国制止中国的经济侵略，客观上是通过战胜帮助中国学习先进的社会制度。如果中国不在政治体制上和法律体系上有真正的改革，美国的目的也不会达到。而政治体制和法律体系的大幅度改革，正是中国现代化的迫切需要。