Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1189-W817

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1189-W817

Release Date: February 17, 2019

发布日：2019年2月17日

Topic: The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (part 1) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：今后中美关系的走向（之一） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-02/WeiJS190217onChinaUSfutureA1189-W817.htm which contains identical information.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (part 1)

-- Wei Jingsheng

Since President Trump agreed with (Chinese vice premier) Liu He, who pushed the responsibility of trade negotiations to Xi Jinping, most of the media and think tanks have optimistic estimates of the results. Judging from the past performance of President Trump, it is indeed likely that he could make wrong decisions when he is fooled by Xi Jinping when they met. People's evaluations do make sense.

Assuming that this time Xi Jinping's conspiracy succeeds and the Sino-US trade war is once again delayed, then what would be the result? The schemes of Xi Jinping and Liu He have been to delay until the election campaign, then to give a fatal blow and end Trump's (political) life.

This is the general operating method of the delaying strategy. In particular, Xi Jinping's term in office is unlimited, while Trump has less than two years left in his tenure. Thus Xi's possibility of success should be high, and some people even think that he will be successful for sure. Therefore, Xi Jinping will carry out this trick.

Now let's take a look as what the following moves will be after Xi Jinping's success.

The first step: Originally Trump was a businessman, who cared relatively more about the short-term phenomenon of the stock market, so Xi Jinping promised him to buy more soybeans and other commodities, temporarily raising the expectations of the stock market. Thus, Trump will agree to the request of his "good friend" and no longer raise the tariff rate, thus the trade war will drag on further.

After Xi Jinping won this round, he will concentrate on eliminating and suppressing the democratic and liberal reformists within the Chinese Communist Party and in the Chinese society, meanwhile continuing his "socialist reform". The Chinese economy will continue to decline, yet be corrupted without collapse, as some economists have estimated; it will maintain for some time.

The second step: Xi Jinping delays more until a little more than half year before the next presidential election, and when the election campaign begins the agreement between the USA and China will be torn up, as he repeats old tricks to strike against the farm belt where Trump and the Republican Party gain their votes. Then, on one side the Chinese economy will fall to the point that it must be reversed, and Xi Jinping's prestige will fall sharply. On the other side President Trump needs to gain the trust of voters, otherwise he will definitely step down.

This action would result both in a strike against Trump's voters and the improvement of Xi Jinping's prestige, like one stone to hitting two birds, in an effort to force Trump to step down while Xi Jinping continues his socialist reform. At this time, the possibility that his "good friends", who never honor his credit, will help President Trump is only zero. In various chess terms, this is the step one must take. Only the mentally retarded would not take this step.

The third step: Xi Jinping wins a full victory while President Trump steps down. This would make the reformists within the Communist Party and within the Chinese society even more vulnerable. Xi Jinping is more in a position to realize his ideals. China's economy and politics will all be stepping back and the social crisis will become even more acute. Various possibilities that seem impossible now will become possible.

In addition to striking the US economy, external expansion and competition with the US for control will become issues that must be considered. By then, the success of the external expansion and the rise of the great powers will be the necessity for Xi Jinping's expanded self-esteem, which is also the necessity of solving the domestic crisis. He was eager to try even when the conditions were not ready. Now as the condition is ready, why not? By then, it will not be curbed.

However, this is just a chess play calculated by Xi Jinping. One of the steps is definitely wrong. This is that the end of Trump's presidency is not equal to the end of the trade war. That is because forcing China's structural reforms to enable trade fairness, has already become the consensus of both political parties and the people of the United States. Therefore, the candidates for the next presidential election in the US will play more Trump than Trump himself. Moreover, the person who becomes the new president for the US will learn the lesson from Trump being swayed by the Communist Party, and will be more serious when one is in power. In other words, the trade war will be more intense, and it will not stop until it is successful. That is because this is the general trend.

By then, China's economic and political situation will be even weaker, and the conditions for a forced reform will be even worse. Economic collapse and political coups are almost inevitable, and peaceful transition would be almost impossible. So instead of delaying until then, it is better off to surrender now. It is in China's best interest to start structural reforms immediately, thus to enable China's politics and economy to get on the right track gradually.

Long pain is worse than short pain. Xi Jinping should thank Trump to be the most moderate opponent. As President Trump himself said: No one could play a better rogue that the Americans. So it is better to do something right now, instead of playing the little tricks of the thief in the Chinese style.

Original link of this commentary on RFA:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-02072019164235.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS190206onChinaUSfuture.mp3

(Written and recorded on February 6, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is a message from WeiJingSheng.org

The Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help in any means. We pledge solidarity to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this planet.

You are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website at: www.weijingsheng.org

Although we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your contribution as well. You may send your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files, not in attachments.

For website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org

To find out more about us, please also visit our websites at:

www.WeiJingSheng.org and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org

for news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.

You may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or

Wei Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-270-6980

Wei Jingsheng Foundation's postal address is:

Wei Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA

You are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process your request.

*****************************************************************

中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1189-W817

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1189-W817

Release Date: February 17, 2019

发布日：2019年2月17日

Topic: The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (part 1) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：今后中美关系的走向（之一） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-02/WeiJS190217onChinaUSfutureA1189-W817.htm

-----------------------------------------------------------------

今后中美关系的走向（之一）

-- 魏京生

自从川普总统答应刘鹤，把贸易谈判的责任推给习近平之后，媒体和智库们对结果大多数都抱有乐观的估计。从川普过去的表现来看，被习近平当面忽悠作出错误决定的可能性确实很大。大家的估计也确实有道理。

假设这次习近平的阴谋得逞了，贸易战得到了再一次的减缓，也就是习近平的缓兵之计再赢一局。结果如何呢？习近平和刘鹤的计谋是一直拖到你竞选，再给你致命的一击，要你的命。

这是缓兵之计的一般操作方法，特别是人家习近平任期无限，你川普任期还剩下不到两年。成功的可能性应该很大，甚至有人估计肯定能够成功。所以习近平才会放出这个花招。

现在我们就按照习近平成功来看一下后续的几步棋是怎么走的。

第一步：川普商人出身，把股市这种短期现象看得比较重，于是小习就给他多买一些大豆和其它商品，暂时升高股市的预期。川普就会答应他这个“好朋友”的要求，不再提高税率。让贸易战继续拖延下去。

习近平赢得这一局之后，会集中精力消灭和压制中国党内和社会上的民主自由改革派，继续他的社会主义改革。中国经济会一如既往地下滑，就像某些经济学者估计的那样，溃而不崩，还能维持一段时间。

第二步：维持到美国大选前半年多，开始竞选活动的时候，就撕毁协议，故伎重演打击川普和共和党的票仓。一来这时候中国经济下滑到了不得不扭转的形势，习近平的威信大大下降。二来川普总统也需要得到选民的信任，否则肯定下台。

既打击川普的票仓，又提高习近平的威信，一石二鸟的结果，就是川普下台而习近平继续他的社会主义改革。这个时候，你想让从来不遵守信用的“好朋友”拉你一把，可能性只能是零。用各种棋类术语来说，在这种形势下这是官棋。只有弱智才不走官棋。

第三步：川普下台，而习近平大获全胜威信提高，党内和社会上的改革派就更加处于弱势。习近平实现他的理想就更有条件了，中国经济政治都会大踏步地后退，社会危机更加尖锐。现在看来不可能的各种可能性，都会变成可能。

除了打击美国经济之外，对外扩张与美国争夺控制权，也就成为了必须考虑的问题。届时对外扩张的成功，大国崛起的成功，将是习近平自我膨胀的必须，也是解决国内危机的必须。没条件的时候尚且跃跃欲试，有条件了为什么不做呢？到那时候就不可遏制了。

不过这只是习近平算的棋，其中有一步肯定是算错了。这就是川普下台不等于贸易战结束。由于迫使中国结构性的改革，以便贸易公平化，已经是美国两党和民众的共识；因此下一次竞选的候选人，个个都会扮演得比川普还要川普。而且接受了川普被共产党忽悠的教训，其执政时会更加认真。也就是说贸易战会更加激烈，不成功就不会罢休。因为这是大势所趋。

到那个时候，中国的经济政治形势会更加虚弱，被迫改革的条件也更差。经济崩溃和政变几乎不可避免，和平转型几乎没有可能。所以与其拖延到那个时候，还不如现在屈服。立刻开始结构性的改革，使中国的政治和经济都能逐步走上正轨，才是中国的最大利益。

长痛不如短痛，习近平应该感谢川普是个最温和的对手。正如川普总统自己说过的那样：如果耍流氓，全世界的人都不是美国人的对手。还是老老实实干点正经事情为妙，不要老想着耍那种中国式的小鸡贼。

本评论在自由亚洲电台的网页链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-02072019164235.html