Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1190-W818

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1190-W818

Release Date: February 18, 2019

发布日：2019年2月18日

Topic: The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：今后中美关系的走向（之二） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (Part 2)

-- Wei Jingsheng

The last time we had predicted that when President Trump makes compromises, Xi Jinping would win one round of the games, with his delaying tactics inevitably leading to the downfall of Trump and the continued decline of the Chinese economy. This time, let us analyze how the results would be different if President Trump insists not to compromise, meanwhile Xi Jinping also insists on not making structural reforms.

After March 1st, when Trump raises the tariff rate to 25%, Xi Jinping would also consider raising his tariff rate to save his face; then the US would also raise the tariff or expand the areas of the tariff. After the real trade war begins, the Chinese economy, which was already plagued by illness, will quickly collapse. Will the Chinese people silently accept this result at the upcoming annual plenary sessions of the national People's Congress and the national Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference that will be held soon?

The people really supporting Xi Jinping's refusal of structural reforms are a group of vested interests that have made big money because of autocracy. What will they do after the deformed economic structure they designed was crushed by the last straw of this trade war? The first would be to speed up the transfer of assets. The hesitant big capitalists and middle-class people will bypass all kinds of regulations and supervision, as well as the commands "to shut down and to turn", but this "turn" is not to divert the direction but to transfer assets to safety. Thus the speed of China's economic downturn would then be greatly accelerated.

But the speed of transfer will not be as fast as the arrival of the trade war. In particular, these big capitalists with political power will use both upcoming annual plenary sessions to reverse Xi Jinping's wrong policy in order to save themselves. If Xi Jinping loses the policy war during these two plenary sessions and restarts the policy of negotiating and compromising, Trump will stop continuing to increase tariffs. The trade war between the two countries will ease, while China can also win the time for reform and adjustment.

However, Xi Jinping has already begun to speculate on patriotism, along with his slogans claiming "no change would be made to policies that should not be changed." His followers have also joined the suit, "sovereignty of our country." This approach once again lifted the illusory mentality of this "great power" of the Communist regime, as if it is going to have another May Fourth Movement in China. In this way, they demand the Chinese government not to back off.

But is it really humiliating China when the government backs off? Will they really win for sure if they do not back off? We really need to open minds and rethink what is good for China and the Chinese people. To put it simply: when you need to step back away from the dead end yet you do not, then you are on the thinking that will lose for sure. Even the most powerful boxer knows to retreat as a way to advance, instead of holding there to be beaten up.

Historically, the so called "humiliation" of China during the end of the Qing Dynasty and the early Republic of China, as scolded by these so called intellectuals in China, was the era with fastest growing of the economy and initiated the modernization in China, because of the introduction of the western tax supervision and concessions system. The only concessions of Hong Kong and Macao, which had not been reclaimed, had a much higher level of political and economic development than the Mainland China. When we the Chinese still did not have enough to eat and to wear, these people of the same Asia species with the same Asian values already had become "four little dragons".

Why? This issue has plagued Chinese scholars for a long time. In fact, it was the introduction of the supervision by the foreigners that undermined the corrupt system of Chinese officials and brought a relatively fair environment to the oppressed people. The ingenuity of the Chinese people is no less than that of foreigners. The external supervision and restriction have helped the people and restricted the bureaucratic capitalists. This is the real secret of the economic development in the late Qing Dynasty and the early Republic of China.

Some people would ask why the United States does not need external supervision? This is because they have self-supervision of a two party system and are more effective. Its legal system therefore can be independent of power and truly guaranteed by law. Even so, it still needs foreign supervision from the World Trade Organization. However, although this idea is good its implementation was not good, as WTO is a law enforcement agency without teeth. The Communist regime in China has exactly exploited this void to claim the so-called Chinese model, and it is therefore an unsustainable model.

The Chinese people suffer from the lack of supervision and restriction of power, and without the legal guarantee of fairness and justice. Not only the common Chinese, but also the bureaucratic capitalist class, are lacking this guarantee. Not only does it have no human rights protection, it does not guarantee the normal development of the economy. This is the root of illness for this one-party dictatorship.

As of now because the one-party dictatorship has not changed, the Chinese people and bureaucrats urgently need external supervision. The Chinese economy does not want to collapse, and urgently needs political and economic reforms; while reforms urgently require effective external supervision. Now the Americans are willing to help us for free, why should not we accept it?

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS190210onChinaUSfuture2.mp3

(Written and recorded on February 10, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1190-W818

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1190-W818

Release Date: February 18, 2019

发布日：2019年2月18日

Topic: The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：今后中美关系的走向（之二） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-02/WeiJS190218onChinaUSfuture2A1190-W818.htm

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今后中美关系的走向（之二）

-- 魏京生

上一次我们从川普妥协，习近平赢了一局预测，拖延战术必将导致川普下台和中国经济继续下滑。这次咱们从川普坚持不妥协，习近平也坚持不做结构性改革来分析，看看结果有什么不同。

三月一号川普把税率提高到25%之后，习近平出于面子考虑也会提高税率；然后美国也提高税率或者扩大收税范围。真正的贸易战开打之后，本来就百病缠身的中国经济将会迅速走向崩溃。很快就要召开的两会上，大家会默默地接受这个结果吗？

真正支持习近平不接受结构性改革的，是一帮靠专制赚了大钱的既得利益集团。在他们设计的畸形经济结构被贸易战的最后一根稻草压垮后，他们怎么办呢？首先是加速转移资产，现在还犹犹豫豫的大资产和中产们，会绕过各种监管以及关停并转，但这个转不是转移方向而是转移资产到安全地带。中国的经济下滑的速度也因此大大加快。

但是转移的速度不如贸易战来得快。特别是那些有政治势力的大资产，会利用两会来扭转习近平的错误政策，以求自救。如果习近平输掉两会的政策战，重新启动谈判妥协的政策，川普也会停止继续加税，两国的贸易战会趋于缓和，中国也可以赢得改革调整的时间。

但是，习近平已经开始炒作爱国主义，一口一个“不该改的坚决不改”，马仔们也跟著起哄，“主权主权”。这再一次哄抬了天朝大国的虚妄心态，好像又要来一次五四运动了。以此顶住政府的后腰不得后退。

但是后退就真的丧权辱国了吗？不后退就真的一定能赢吗？什么对中国和百姓有利，的确需要打通思路重新思考。简单说就是：在需要退一步海阔天空的时候不退，就是输定了的脑残思路。最厉害的拳手也懂得以退为进，不会挺着胸脯让人家痛揍。

从历史上看，清末民初被牛逼文人们骂得狗血喷头的丧权辱国，引进了西方的税务监督和租界制度后，恰恰是中国经济发展最快，并且进入了现代化启动的时代。而唯一没有被收回的租界香港澳门，政治经济发展的水平都远远高于大陆。在我们大家还吃不饱穿不暖的时候，同文同种也是亚洲价值观的人家已经是四小龙了。

为什么呢？这个问题困扰了中国学者很久。其实就是引进了外来和尚的监督，破坏了官官相护的腐败制度，给被欺压的老百姓带来了比较公平的环境。中国人民的聪明才智不比外国人差，外来的监督制约恰恰帮助了老百姓，制约了官僚资本。这才是清末民初经济发展的真正秘诀。

有人说为什么美国不需要外来的监督呢？这是因为人家有两党制的自我监督，而且比较有效。人家的法制也因此可以独立于权势，真正地有法律保障。即使如此，人家还需要世界贸易组织的外国监督。只不过思路虽好执行不力，那是个没有牙齿的执法机构。共产党正是钻了这个空子才能号称中国模式，也正是因此这是个不可持续的模式。

而中国人民苦于没有对权势的监督制约，没有公平公正的法律保障。不但老百姓，就是官僚资产阶级也没有保障。不但没有人权保障，也没有正常发展经济的保障。这是一党专政的病根。

在一党专政还没有改变的现在，中国人民和官僚们都迫切需要外来的监督。中国经济不想崩溃，急需要政治经济的改革；改革急需要外来的有效监督。美国人愿意免费为我们帮忙，何乐而不为呢？