Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1192-W819

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1192-W819

Release Date: February 23, 2019

发布日：2019年2月23日

Topic: The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (part 3) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：今后中美关系的走向（之三） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (Part 3)

-- Wei Jingsheng

Some friends asked in amazement, since the United States is in a strong position and China has no chance of winning, what are they talking about endlessly? Just knock Xi Jinping flat and that would be the end of it, right? If things in the world were that simple, humans could have stayed in the monkey era.

It's like playing chess, and it looks like there is no hope, but there is always a possibility to make a comeback and turn defeat into victory. There are precedents for this in Sino-US relations in the past, and now Xi Jinping is embracing this kind of fantasy to allow the scapegoat Liu He to negotiate endlessly. He himself can pretend to be a hero in front of the Chinese people, and the double dealer can play to his own strength.

What is Xi Jinping's hope? One is Trump's lack of political experience, as we have said before, and like the criticism of Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy: one should not deal with national affairs through personal feelings. President Trump has not dealt with politics in the past, and running a company where he alone has the final say is completely different from the habits of running a country, where he might not have the final say.

His style of unpredictability may make him a good businessman. But as a politician, it makes him seem untrustworthy. Your friends don't know how to coordinate with you; your enemy can easily believe that your stupidity can be used. Xi Jinping neither makes concessions nor retreats, just hopes that the endless negotiations will provide a good opportunity to trick Trump into personally bypassing the negotiators.

Aside from the unpredictable behavior, I believe the CCP also sees the deeper weakness of President Trump. This may be a weakness that the media and observers rarely see, which is that he wants to make a good name in history. As a successful businessman, he was able to turn himself into a celebrity in the media. That he dared to venture out to be elected president has shown that he wanted more, that he wanted to make a good name for himself at a higher level in history.

This is not a bad thing in itself. This was the deep motive of many great politicians who dared to be great. However, considering Trump's limited term in office, Xi Jinping can be far more troublesome, by simply adopting delaying tactics. In the end, the one bringing down Xi Jinping may not be Trump himself, but his successor, who might pick it up cheap. This is hard to bear for the ambitious president. So what to do?

Just when you want to sleep, someone conveniently sends you a pillow. If one cannot be the greatest, then at least one can surpass his predecessor, President Obama. Hence the plan to nominate President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize was induced. Obama won the award for doing nothing, and it made all the people in the world feel funny. There's no need to guess that the awards committee members would butter up a great power. For a president who considers himself the great, taking this prize should not be that difficult.

Actually, that's not the case. China is also a great power, and has many businesses with that small Nordic country which are at risk being cancelled by China at any time. And what is the excuse of this plan to get a Peace Prize? Of course, it is to resolve North Korea's nuclear weapons. Who can really control the attitude of Kim Jong-un? Of course, it is again China.

This is why President Trump must take the negotiating power, still not necessarily the deciding power into his own hands. The venue for the negotiation could be either in China or at Trump's own estate. This will ensure that the core content of the negotiations will not be disclosed to the media. And it will guarantee the achievement of two goals, to win this award for this great President and at least to become a President greater than Obama.

When you add it up, there are not really many American presidents who have won the Nobel Peace Prize. Because in the past judges did not want to be suspected, but now they are not afraid, as the opportunity is rare. Xi Jinping's men are also smart enough to be able to grasp a good opportunity with a single move to defeat this American president who is ambitious and not so talented.

Then what? Many friends are eager to know the aftermath. Then Xi Jinping would have succeeded in dragging on this chess game in which he was already losing, and he would then have a comeback. Xi Jinping's other moves would include tearing up all the previous agreements, and leaking the content of the secret negotiations to the media, thereby destroying the reputation of both President Trump, and the institutes of democracy. Xi would have defeated Trump, as well as broken the confidence of the Chinese people in democracy. One stone, two birds.

It should be acknowledged that using the Nobel Peace Prize to make a comeback in the game is indeed a good move. And looking at the democratic mechanism in the United States, is there a masterstroke to turn this around?

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS190220onChinaUSfuture3.mp3

(Written and recorded on February 20, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1192-W819

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1192-W819

Release Date: February 23, 2019

发布日：2019年2月23日

Topic: The Future Direction of Sino-US Relations (part 3) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：今后中美关系的走向（之三） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-02/WeiJS190223onChinaUSfuture3A1192-W819.htm

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今后中美关系的走向（之三）

-- 魏京生

有朋友很诧异地问我，既然美国处于强势地位，中国没有什么胜算，那还没完没了地谈什么呢？直接把习近平打趴下不就完了嘛？世界上的事情如果都这么简单，人类可能早就停留在猴子的时代了。

比如下棋，看上去已经没什么希望了，还有可能翻盘，反败为胜。中美关系过去也有过这样的先例。现在小习正是抱有这方面的幻想，才让刘鹤这个替罪羊没完没了地谈判；而自己在国人面前冒充好汉，两面派玩得炉火纯青。

习近平的希望是什么呢？一个是咱们前面说过的川普缺乏政治经验，就像芮效俭大使批评的那样：不应该以个人感情处理国家大事。川普总统过去没从事过政治，而管理国家，却和他一个人说了算，而且可以说了不算的管理公司的习惯，完全不同。

他这种多变的行为方式可能是个好商人。但作为政治家，就显得非常没有信用。自己的朋友不知道该如何与你协调一致，敌人则容易相信你的愚蠢可以利用。习近平既不让步也不后退，正是希望让没完没了的谈判，成为忽悠川普个人绕过谈判代表的好机会。

除了行为方式多变之外，我相信中共也看出了川普总统更深层次的弱点。这可能是媒体和观察家们很少看到的弱点，川普想要青史留名。他曾以一个成功商人的身份，过去混了个媒体名人。之后他敢冒险出来选总统，只能是不甘寂寞，想要更上一层楼地青史留名。

本来这不是坏事，正是很多敢为天下先的大政治家，成功立业的深层动机。但是他任期有限，习近平又很难缠，采取拖延战术。最终打倒习近平的可能不是川普本人，而是他的后任捡了便宜。这可是野心勃勃的总统大人难以容忍的。怎么办呢？

正想睡觉就有人送来了枕头。当不了最伟大的，至少也要超过他的前任奥巴马总统。于是就有了提名诺贝尔和平奖的计划。奥巴马什么都没作就得了个奖，酸掉了全世界的牙根。那个评奖委员会拍大国马屁的行迹已经不需要猜测了。给自认为最伟大的总统拿下这个奖，应该难度不大。

其实不然。中国也是个大国，而且和那个北欧小国之间有很多可以随时取消的生意。除此之外，想得和平奖的理由是什么呢？当然就是解决朝鲜的核武器。能真正控制金三胖态度的是谁呢？又当然就是中国了。

这就是川普总统必须把和中国的谈判权，而不是决定权拿在自己手里的原因。这个谈判地点要么是在中国境内，要么是在川普自家的庄园。这样可以最大限度地保证，谈判的核心内容不会泄露给媒体。保证双管齐下给总统大人拿到这个奖，成为至少比奥巴马更伟大的总统。

算一算得到和平奖的美国总统确实不多。因为过去的评奖委员们不想被人怀疑，现在他们不怕了，机会难得。习近平的手下们也足够聪明到能够把握这个好机会，一举挫败这个志大才疏的美国总统。

然后呢？很多朋友会急着知道然后会怎么样。然后习近平就可以成功地拖延这场必输的棋局，来他个大翻盘。习近平的后手包括撕毁协议，也会包括非正式地透露秘密谈判的消息给媒体，毁坏川普和民主政治的名誉。这样既打击了川普，又破坏了中国人民追求民主的信心，一举两得。

应该承认，利用诺贝尔奖来翻盘，的确是一步好棋。且看美国的民主机制，有没有什么高招来应对了。