Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1196-W821

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1196-W821

Release Date: March 6, 2019

发布日：2019年3月6日

Topic: Xi Jinping's Plight -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的困局 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-03/WeiJS190306onXiJPplightA1196-W821.htm which contains identical information.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Xi Jinping's Plight

-- Wei Jingsheng

Since President Trump jumped out of the traps of Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un, and received praises from both parties and the people in the USA, both Kim and Xi faced their plights and broke up unhappily. After returning to North Korea, Kim Jong-un will push all the responsibilities to Xi Jinping, to save his own face and temporarily steady up the rule of the Kim Dynasty there.

Further, Kim has the opportunity and time to seek help from South Korea and mediate with the United States. Xi Jinping is more miserable - the breakup of the Hanoi Summit had not only offended Kim Jong-un but also President Trump. President Trump has already said: If the Sino-US negotiations are also traps, he will still turn around and walk away. After all, it would be an agreement that one may not sign, which would be better off than signing a bad agreement. This is why he got praised.

From Trump's point of view, it is already a disadvantage to not have additional tariffs on Chinese goods. In the past more than six months since the delaying of the Sino-USA trade war, China has continued to maintain a huge trade deficit through currency depreciation, which it has used instead to effectively sanction US exports. Thus it has greatly reduced Trump's prestige in the USA, contributing to the defeats during the mid-term elections and increased resistance to his governance.

Since Trump has already recognized Xi Jinping's strategy to delay and already jumped out of his trap, then his raising the tariff to 25% would be the necessary measure to restore the pressure. Continuing to endure China's sanction against the USA and not fight back, continue to help Xi Jinping to sail through his difficulties, Trump will only harvest for sure the failure of the USA and himself. This will also increase the difficulty to fight this trade war for the following president, and he would not become a great president anymore.

In this situation, the only choice of the USA is the tough words by President Trump: To turn around - to not sign a bad agreement is better than signing a bad agreement. When Trump increases tariff on China, it will not only make Li Keqiang (the Premier) sweat all over his head during his report (at the annual National People's Congress a few days ago), but Xi Jinping would be responsible for the rapid sliding of the Chinese economy as well.

Of course, due to Trump's excessive tolerance of Xi Jinping, he has missed the opportunity of the People's Congress in China and saved Xi's life. Although Xi Jinping would not have an easy time during these two conferences of the People's Congress and the National People's Political Consultative Conference, at least he does not have the pressure from the USA, and nor the danger of economic collapse at this point. It would be difficult for the anti-Xi Jinping alliance within the Communist regime to do much, and it becomes much more likely for Xi Jinping to survive these two conferences this month.

If Xi Jinping did not give the USA an acceptable agreement at the end of March, then President Trump will turn around and increases the tariff on China. This news alone is enough to accelerate the decline of the Chinese economy and stop the US profiteers from purchasing, which will worsen the Chinese economy. These Chinese profiteers who support Xi Jinping now will quickly change their stance to being against Xi Jinping's continuing his governance, and thus begin the systematic reform, which is also structural reform in China.

Such a result not only meets the interests of the United States, but also fits the interests of China, or it can be said to meet the interests of both the Chinese people and businessmen. Because to change China's one-party dictatorship is not only a demand of the Chinese people, but also a demand of the social elites, as well as a necessary condition of a breakthrough in economic development in China. President Trump's job is to benefit both China and the United States, so the Chinese netizens have been affectionately calling him Mr. Old Trump.

If Trump is once again tricked by Xi Jinping and gives Xi Jinping again the time to delay, then the first thing Xi Jinping will do is to clean up the internal opposition and resolve the crisis of the coups. Judging from his actions to make a wartime state during the two conferences now, he has already learned some information about certain coup. He is waiting for a relief of pressure when he succeeds at the negotiations at the end of this month. Then he will be able to have free hand to do and to kill whatever he wants.

After his failure of the Hanoi Summit, what Xi Jinping needs is not to talk about dangers and risks, but boasting of himself during the two conferences. Yet Premier Li Keqiang talked a lot about risks and did not give him face. With Li Keqiang's character, definitely he would be scared enough to sweat all over his head, when he has to move against such a strong tide But there must be a strong force behind him to force him to say so. Otherwise, how will the egg survive when its nest got destroyed? Li's future will not end well either.

The debate in the White House is fierce. In fact, the debate in Beijing is even more intense, especially as it is a debate that would determine one's life and death, in accordance with the laws of authoritarian regimes. If Li Keqiang wants to get the treatment of Zhao Ziyang and Hua Guofeng (former Chinese Communist leaders who were forced down during internal political fights), it would be depend on if Xi Jinping wants to copy from Deng Xiaoping. I think that Xi has to be more vicious than Deng, because he is facing a greater danger than Deng did, a bit of like what happened with the Gang of Four.

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03062019151927.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS190305onXiJPplight.mp3

(Written and recorded on March 5, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is a message from WeiJingSheng.org

The Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help in any means. We pledge solidarity to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this planet.

You are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website at: www.weijingsheng.org

Although we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your contribution as well. You may send your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files, not in attachments.

For website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org

To find out more about us, please also visit our websites at:

www.WeiJingSheng.org and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org

for news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.

You may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or

Wei Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-270-6980

Wei Jingsheng Foundation's postal address is:

Wei Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA

You are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process your request.

*****************************************************************

中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1196-W821

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1196-W821

Release Date: March 6, 2019

发布日：2019年3月6日

Topic: Xi Jinping's Plight -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的困局 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-03/WeiJS190306onXiJPplightA1196-W821.htm

-----------------------------------------------------------------

习近平的困局

-- 魏京生

自从川普总统跳出小习和小金设好的陷阱，并获得美国两党和民众的好评之后，小金和小习都面临了困局，并且不欢而散。小金回国后会把责任全都推给小习，挽回他自己的面子，暂时巩固金家王朝的统治。

而且小金还有向韩国求救，向美国斡旋的机会和时间。小习就惨了，河内崩盘得罪的不仅是小金，也包括川普总统。老川已经放话：中美谈判如果还是陷阱，他也还是会扭头就走。协议嘛，不签就不签了，总比签一个坏协议要好，这也是大家赞扬他的说法。

从川普的角度看，不加税已经是吃亏了。贸易战停摆拖延的这半年多，中国通过货币贬值，继续保持着巨额的贸易逆差，反倒是有效地制裁了美国的出口，使得川普的国内威信大幅下降，中期选举失利，施政阻力加大。

既然已经识破了习近平的缓兵之计，既然已经跳出了小习的陷阱，那么加税到百分之二十五，就是恢复压力的必要措施。继续让中国制裁美国而不还手，继续帮助习近平度过难关，收获的必将是美国和川普本人的失败。这也加大了后边接任总统打贸易战的难度，伟大总统就当不成了。

在这种局面下，美国的选择只能是川普放狠话所说：扭头就走，签一个坏协议不如不签。加大税收，然后就不仅仅是李克强作报告时满头大汗了，习近平必须为经济快速下滑负责。

当然，由于川普对小习的过份宽容，已经错过了中国开大会的机会，救了小习一命。虽然习近平在两会上也不会好过，但毕竟缺少了美国的压力，缺少了经济崩溃的危险，中国内部的反习联盟也很难有大作为。习近平两会过关的可能性比较大。

如果习近平不在三月底给美国一个可以接受的协议，然后川普总统扭头就走加大税收，仅仅是这个消息就足以使中国经济加速下滑，使美国奸商们停止采购，给中国经济雪上加霜。现在还支持习近平的中国奸商们，会迅速改变立场反对习近平继续主政，开始中国的体制改革也就是结构性改革。

这样的结果不仅符合美国的利益，也符合中国的利益，或者可以说是中国人民和商人们的利益。因为改变中国的一党专政，已经不仅仅是人民的要求，也是社会精英们的要求，是经济发展突破瓶颈的必要条件。川普总统的工作是在为中国和美国两国谋利益，所以中国网民亲切地称他为老川。

如果川普再一次被习近平所忽悠，让习近平再一次蒙混过关拖延时间，那么习近平要做的第一件事，就是清洗内部的反对派，解除政变的危机。从他在两会期间进入战时状态来看，他已经了解了某种政变的信息，就等他在月底谈判过关解除了一面的压力，才能腾出手来大开杀戒。

小习的河内陷阱失败之后，他需要的不是谈论危险风险什么的，而是在两会上给他吹捧。李克强大谈风险十足是不给他面子。以李克强的性格，这样顶风而上肯定会吓得满头大汗。但是他背后肯定有强大的势力，迫使他不得不说。否则覆巢之下，岂有完卵，他自己也没有好下场。

白宫的争论很激烈，其实北京的争论更激烈。而且按照专制政权的规律，那是你死我活的争论。李克强要想得到赵紫阳，华国锋的待遇，就要看小习是不是想学邓小平了。我觉得小习不得不比邓小平更狠，因为他面临的危险比邓小平更大，有点儿像四人帮。

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03062019151927.html