Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1224-W844

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1224-W844

Release Date: July 7, 2019

发布日：2019年7月7日

Topic: The Unusual Situation During the G20 Osaka Summit 2019 (part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：再议日本峰会的诡异 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The Unusual Situation During the G20 Osaka Summit 2019 (part 2)

-- Wei Jingsheng

The last time we discussed the dilemma of Xi Jinping. This time we will talk about the dilemma faced by Donald Trump: is the support of the people's votes more important, or is the support of donations from big capital more important. From the composition of Trump's entourage to Japan, it was clear that the pro-Chinese Communist officials in the White House are dominant. In particular, his daughter and son-in-law who openly support the Communist regime to gain commercial interests in China were very eye-catching.

After his talks with Xi Jinping Trump was very happy, saying he would not impose new tariffs and even lift the ban on Chinese enterprises such as Huawei. This immediately caused a stir in public opinion, with criticism coming like the mountains and the ocean that were all telling Trump: Your re-election and the Nobel Prize are ruined. The big capital of the United States will give you more donations, but your failure is too impressive. Voters are less likely to believe in a candidate without credit despite propaganda.

Trump may be smiling in private: "It is still too early and how do you know that I does not have a following action to turn things around? I did not say things that firmly, so if Xi Jinping dares to backslide, there is more than one big move waiting there. Anyway, this time Xi Jinping has softened up, so I will enjoy my good meal slowly, as the good drama of the cat playing the mouse is upcoming."

This time Xi Jinping made a correct choice, to choose the lesser of two evils, that is, he agreed to count and continue the negotiation results from April; he also agreed to buy a large number of agricultural products; and in addition he gave a big gift of North Korea to Trump, which led to Trump's satisfaction and a restart of the beautiful dream of a Nobel Peace Prize. At least, these actions will help Xi Jinping avoid economic collapse, and allow the Communist regime to linger a little longer.

The premise for Xi Jinping to choose to surrender is that he increased the intensity of internal repression, as demonstrated with the ongoing rectification movement now. But this trick worked well during the Mao Zedong era because Mao had high prestige. It was not very useful during the Deng Xiaoping era, so Deng had to sacrifice his own people. But Xi Jinping does not have that many people after all. The customary technique of Wang Qishan is to pull his feathers first and then go straight to the object. How many feathers does Xi have to be cut?

Moreover, this time Xi Jinping showing his sword internally will for sure intensify internal conflicts. The surrender at the Sino-US trade war is only related to the interests of the bureaucratic capitalists, but showing the sword internally relates to the safety of many Communist leaders' families. There are already precedents of the Deng Family, Chen Family, Wang Family and Bo Family, etc. Will all the other families retreat like the turtles hiding their heads? It is hard to believe that all these families are willing to be slaughtered without a struggle.

Even though surrendering to the United States resulted in a loss of some interest, it is still much better than waiting to be slaughtered. What is more, there is also the nationalism stirred up by Xi Jinping himself that can be used. So it would not be difficult to overthrow a weak ruler. There are too many historical examples to enumerate. Xi Jinping's prestige is not high, and he has done too many wrong and bad things, so he would not accept the arrangement like Hua Guofeng, but fight until his death.

There is also a lot of uncertainty on Trump's side. In order to alleviate his own pressure, Xi Jinping will definitely take the approach of not taking actions that he promised, while taking other actions without warning in advance. As a matter of fact, what he promised verbally could not be implemented because the nationalist craze he fanned up himself is against his back, making it difficult for him to retreat. Surviving between these two difficulties, he can only use rogue means to deceive his enemy and meanwhile lie to his friends -- he has not only promised to Trump but also promised to people inside of China. He cheated Trump and deceived those inside of China as well, and he sold out Iran and North Korea in exchange for a short time of fantasy for Trump just to delay time.

However, Trump also has his own difficulties, as he is being attacked by public opinion at home and abroad, which seriously threatens his prestige. There are already many supporters who have stated that they will not choose him for another term anymore. This cold water must have hit his back and he can no longer bear tricks of Xi Jinping. If Xi Jinping can't quickly give Trump a very good agreement that he brags about, the inevitable result is that Trump will turn his back against Xi.

Will Trump's reputation be saved after he waits several months to turn his back against Xi? This is hard to say. In general, hope is getting less and less over time. However, the result of Xi Jinping delaying for a few more months will bring China's economy even closer to collapse. The person who takes over later will be like the mouse in the bellows, being squeezed from both sides -- neither able to save the downturned economy nor satisfy Trump's successor. Who would be willing to be this unlucky mouse then?

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-07092019131748.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS190701onG20OsakaSummit2.mp3

(Written and recorded on July 1, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A1224-W844

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1224-W844

Release Date: July 7, 2019

发布日：2019年7月7日

Topic: The Unusual Situation During the G20 Osaka Summit 2019 (part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：再议日本峰会的诡异 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-07/WeiJS190707onG20OsakaSummit2A1224-W844.htm

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再议日本峰会的诡异

-- 魏京生

上一次我们讨论了习近平面对的两难处境，这一次我们就来谈谈川普面临的两难处境，也就是人民选票的支持重要，还是大资本捐款的支持重要。从川普这次带到日本的随员来看，明确是亲中共的白宫官员占优势。特别是他那公开支持中共，并在中国得到商业利益的女儿和女婿，十分引人注目。

川普这次和习近平谈完后喜不自胜，不加关税了，还要解禁华为等企业的禁令。舆论大哗，排山倒海的批评正在告诉老川：你的连任和诺贝尔奖都泡汤了。虽然美国大资本会给你更多的捐款，但你的失败给人印象太深刻，选民不太会因为宣传就相信一个没有信用的候选人。

川普可能正在私下里偷着笑：时间还早呢，你们怎么知道我没有翻盘的后手呢？反正我没把话说死，小习要是敢反悔，后边还有不止一个大招在那儿等着呢。反正小习这次已经服软了，好饭慢慢吃，猫玩儿老鼠的好戏还在后头。

小习这次做了一个正确的选择，两害相权取其轻，即同意了四月份谈成的结果继续算数；也同意了大量购买农产品；还附加送上一份朝鲜大礼，让川普好好地风光了一把，又开始做起了和平奖的美梦。但小习至少避免了经济上的崩溃，让共产党又可以苟延残喘一会儿了。

小习选择缴械投降的前提，是他加大对内部镇压的力度，也就是正在展开的整风运动。但是这一招在毛泽东时代很管用，那是因为他威望很高。邓小平时代就不太管用了，只好牺牲自己的人马。小习的人马本来就不多。王岐山的习惯手法，就是先剪其羽翼，再直奔主题。小习有多少羽翼可供削剪呢？

而且小习这次对内部亮剑，必将激化内部矛盾。中美贸易战投降只关系到官僚资产阶级的利益，内部亮剑则关系到家族的安全。邓家、陈家、王家和薄家已经不乏先例，难道其他人家就都是缩头乌龟吗？很难相信都这么乖乖地等死。

就算向美国投降失去一些利益，也比等死好得多。何况还有习近平自己煽动起来的民族主义可资利用，上下结合推翻一个弱主不是什么难事，历史上的例子不胜枚举。小习威信不高，又做了太多的错事坏事，恐怕无法接受华国锋模式的安排，只有鱼死网破可供选择了。

川普这边的不确定性也很多。小习为了减轻自己的压力，肯定会说了不做，做了不说。口头答应的东西实际上无法执行，因为他自己煽起的民族主义热潮顶住了他的后腰，让他很难后退。在这两难之间生存，他只能耍流氓手段来骗了敌人又骗朋友-既向川普承诺也向国内承诺，既骗川普也骗国内，再有就是出卖伊朗和朝鲜，换取川普一时的幻想，拖延时间。

但是川普也有他自己的困难，他正在遭受国内外舆论的抨击，严重威胁到他的声望。已经有很多支持者声明不会再选他了，这一瓢冷水肯定已经顶住了他老先生的后腰，无法承受小习的再一次花招。如果小习不能很快给川普一个他吹嘘的很好协议，川普翻脸就是必然的结果。

再等几个月翻脸是不是能挽回川普的声望，这个不好说。一般来说希望会随着时间越来越小。可是习近平的结果就是再拖延几个月，届时中国的经济会更加接近崩溃。后边接手的人就是风箱里的老鼠，两头受气--既无法挽救下滑的经济，也无法让川普的继任者满意。有谁愿意来当这个倒霉的老鼠呢？

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-07092019131748.html