Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1231-W849

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1231-W849

Release Date: August 4, 2019

发布日：2019年8月4日

Topic: The So-called Triangular Relationship Between China, the United States and Russia -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：所谓的中美俄三角关系 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The So-called Triangular Relationship Between China, the United States and Russia

-- Wei Jingsheng

Recently, some Western scholars have been talking about the so-called triangular relationship between China, the United States and Russia. It is said that the triangle is now different from the "USA allied with China against Russia" policy during the Mao Zedong era. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are developing a new strategy called "Russia united with China against the USA" as a return to the Stalin era. This view is mainly because of the continuation of Henry Kissinger's theory from fifty years ago. The US diplomatic system basically continued this Kissinger theory, and most of the scholars were the disciples of Henry Kissinger.

Why is Kissinger's theory wrong? That is because the premise he used in his argument is wrong. The breakdown of Sino-Soviet relations was not because the United States has wooed Mao Zedong, but had already begun when they fought for the leadership within the communist camp in the early 1960s. It entered the war stage in 1969 and had no relationship with the United States at all. Moreover, China and the USSR still cooperated closely in the fight against the democratic camp and competed for leadership in the Communist camp, such as during the Vietnam War.

It was only in the early 1970s that due to the Lin Biao coup, Mao Zedong's clique was caught in a serious political crisis and was trapped with both internal and external difficulties. In his pragmatic way of thinking, uniting with the USA against the former USSR would be the preferred project. Meanwhile, Larry Wu-Tai Chin, the secret Communist agent who hid in the US Central Intelligence Agency, provided key information illustrating Kissinger, the designer of American diplomatic thinking, also had similar plans. This has led to the rapid development of relations between China and the USA, and has since changed the pattern of world politics.

Now Xi Jinping has also encountered a similar situation to that Mao Zedong had. He has difficulties with both internal and external affairs and his regime is not secured. With his worship of Mao Zedong's way of thinking, he naturally thought to unite with Russia against the United States, and may even think of another effort to support the DPRK. According to the principles of Sun Tzu's Art of War, naturally this is also the first choice. Unfortunately, his mentally retarded advisors did not expect that the times are different and the environmental conditions are very different as well. The results of East Shi's effectiveness in learning from the beautiful West Shi is only to ridicule oneself. The scheme can't be successful.

Today's Russia is no longer the former Soviet Union. Its semi-democratic system has great conflict with the European democratic system, while the ambition to restore the great Russia still high. Thus, it poses a direct threat to the expansion of European democracy. If it is aligned with China to deal with Europe, it will force the EU countries to resume alliance with the United States, or reinforce the cohesion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and help the US President Trump to correct his mistakes of offending allies.

This will be the biggest mistake Putin can make. It seems that Putin is a very smart person, so a Sino-Russian alliance against the United States will only be one of Putin's little tricks to trick the fools in Beijing. However, Xi Jinping will have to spend a lot of money for this, and continue to waste the hard-earned money of the Chinese people. Beijing will once again act as a big fool, to become a bargaining chip for Putin and Trump.

From the perspective of China, it is also like a daydream of fishing the moon out of the water. What can be helpful assuming Russia really cooperates with Xi Jinping? There is no war between China and the United States, and there is no military confrontation. Can Putin provide military assistance like Stalin did? The so-called joint military exercise will at most add some obstacles to solving North Korea's nuclear weapons by force. It may not be a good thing when Kim Jong-un is benefited from this reprieve. His propaganda of "thousands years of enmity with China" will soon return.

The Taiwanese are most concerned about when they will be beaten. Will China not take actions against Taiwan if Russia helps the United States? First, the Communist regime troubled with internal and external affairs does not have its mind to make trouble with Taiwan. Second, when it does make trouble with Taiwan, it provides an excuse for the USA to engage in a comprehensive attack. Unless Xi Jinping is stupid, it will not happen. Even if Xi Jinping is really stupid, Putin will not accompany Xi's stupidity. At that time, Putin may say something like he "does not want to bring disaster to the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait" and if there are issues, they should be solved politically, etc. Politicians are all good at pretending to be saints.

The economy in Russia is less than one-sixth that of China and it is still suffering with harsher economic sanctions than China is. To hope that Russia will help Xi Jinping during the US-China trade war is a daydream. This illustrates why the others consider Xi Jinping's brain to be malfunctioning. When Emperor Xi's thoughts get it wrong, it is normal. But it will not be a blessing to the Communist regime when the poor thing seeks advice from his senior advisers who have the same type of brain illness as himself.

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-08012019113316.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS190731on3countries.mp3

(Written and recorded on July 31, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1231-W849

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1231-W849

Release Date: August, 2019

发布日：2019年8月4日

Topic: The So-called Triangular Relationship Between China, the United States and Russia -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：所谓的中美俄三角关系 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-08/WeiJS190804on3countriesA1231-W849.htm

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所谓的中美俄三角关系

-- 魏京生

最近一些西方学者都在议论所谓的中美俄三角关系。说是现在已经和毛泽东时代的联中抗俄不同了，习近平和普京正在发展新战略，叫做联中抗美，回到了斯大林时代。这主要是因为五十年前基辛格理论的延续，美国的外交系统基本上还在延续基辛格的理论，人员也大多是基辛格的徒子徒孙。

为什么说基辛格的理论是错误呢？那是因为他论证所使用的前提是错误的。中苏关系的破裂并不是因为美国拉拢了毛泽东，而是开始于1960年代初的共产主义阵营争霸战。发展到1969年已经进入了战争阶段，和美国没有一毛钱的关系。而且两国在对抗民主阵营的事务上仍然密切合作，竟争领导权，例如越南战争。

只是七十年代初由于林彪事件，毛泽东集团陷入了严重的政权危机，内外交困。以他实用主义的思维方式，联美抗苏应该是首选项目。正在此时，潜入美国中央情报局的特务金无怠提供了关键情报，说明美国外交思想的设计者基辛格也有了类似的打算。这就有了之后两国关系突飞猛进的发展，改变了世界政治的格局。

现在习近平也遇到了和毛泽东类似的处境，内外交困，政权不保。以他崇拜毛泽东的思维方式，自然想到了联俄抗美，可能还想到了抗美援朝。按照孙子兵法的原则，这也是自然而然的第一选项。只可惜他的弱智参谋们没想到，时代不同了，环境条件大不相同。东施效颦、邯郸学步的结果，至少也是贻笑大方。奸计无法得逞。

如今的俄罗斯已经不是当年的苏联。它的半民主制度和欧洲的民主制度有很大的矛盾，希望恢复大俄罗斯的野心仍然有不小的市场。因此它对欧洲民主制度的扩张构成了直接的威胁。如果它和中国结盟专心对付欧洲，会迫使欧盟国家恢复与美国的联盟，或者说重新增强北大西洋公约组织的凝聚力，帮助川普纠正得罪盟友的错误。

这将是普京所能犯的最大错误。看上去普京是个非常精明的人，所以中俄联盟对付美国，只是普京忽悠北京傻瓜们的小花招而已。不过习近平就要为此大撒币，继续浪费中国人民的血汗钱了。而且还会成为普京和川普讨价还价的筹码，再一次充当大傻瓜的角色。

从中国的角度看，也是一场水中捞月、望梅止渴的春梦。假设俄国真的和习近平合作，它能提供什么帮助呢？中美之间并没有战争，也不存在军事对抗。普京能像斯大林那样提供军事援助吗？所谓的联合军事演习，最多也就给武力解决朝鲜核武器问题增加一些障碍而已。金正恩得利对中国不见得就是好事。他的一千年敌人的宣传很快就会回来。

台湾人最关心的是他们挨打的时候。如果俄罗斯帮忙美国是不是就会缩手了呢？首先是中共内外交困没心思在台湾搞事儿。其次是在台湾搞事儿，会给美国全面打击的借口。除非习近平真傻，否则不会发生。再其次习近平真傻，普京也不会陪着他傻。到那时人家会说什么不希望给两岸人民带来灾难，有问题还要政治解决，云云。政客们都会假充圣人。

俄罗斯的经济规模不到中国的六分之一，而且还在接受比中国严厉的经济制裁。指望在贸易战中帮助习近平更是白日做梦。可见大家批评小习脑子有病，不是空穴来风。当了皇帝就开始脑子有病，这很正常。可怜的是他还找了一群和他一样脑子有病的高参，就不是党国之福了。

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-08012019113316.html