Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1232-W850

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1232-W850

Release Date: August 10, 2019

发布日：2019年8月10日

Topic: US-China Trade War Has Developed Into a Financial War -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：贸易战发展到金融战 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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US-China Trade War Has Developed Into a Financial War

-- Wei Jingsheng

The biggest international news in the last few days is that the Chinese Communist regime has lowered the exchange rate of its RenMinBi (RMB) to US dollars, in an effort to resist the tariff war of the USA. While it brags about not being afraid of tariffs imposed by the USA, it has run out of ways to combat it and has guided the US-China trade war into the financial sector. Just to open the game, it has already shown its cards so calling it that it ran out of ways is not too much.

All parties have analyzed the consequences of this currency exchange rate war from different angles. This time, even the so-called experts and scholars bought out by the Communist regime rarely say that this method is useful. The basic reason is that the strengths are not equal, and the results of the contest between the two sides are clear at a glance. To describe it with the words of the common Chinese is: a waste of effort.

Under normal circumstances, lowering the exchange rate of the currency can promote exports. The purpose of this idea proposed by the Communist advisors is to increase exports as a way to move against the tariff war from the United States. The Chinese Communist regime and the American politicians and scholars they have bought out have repeatedly lied that the duty of tariffs are sole burdens to American consumers. Then why should the Communist regime have to sacrifice its exchange rate to subsidize exports? This is self-contradictory.

However, it is not entirely unreasonable of these staff and rotten officers of the Communist regime. For more than a year they have used the means of lowering the exchange rate, which not only offsets the 10% tariff increase from the USA, but also increases the competitiveness of most Chinese goods without tariffs. This is the reason why the Sino-US trade deficit has not decreased but increased, which really stroked at Trump's policy and reduced the possibility of his re-election next year.

Now a small portion of the tax rate has increased to 25%, and most will soon be levied 10%. So these Communist advisors calculated and lowered the exchange rate again. Isn't it possible to repeat the old trick and let President Trump continue to be fooled? Regrettably, Trump is still learning how to deal with rogues and there is a lot of room to continue to increase the import taxes. Liars all know that they can't use the same method to deceive the same person. The skill of these deceitful advisors needs to be improved.

When they can't fool the Americans, the export to other countries will still increase. But this method of transferring troubles to the others will not work either. Can other countries tolerate a larger trade deficit? No one is a fool. The strategy of using a financial war to protect export will not be successful, and the harm to the Chinese economy is real. The following are a few analyses from several aspects.

First, the burden of Chinese imports has increased dramatically. The rise in the price of food and consumer goods directly contributes to inflation, with the Chinese consumers being the biggest victims. In particular, if the Communist regime does not import agricultural products from the USA due to trade wars, other countries will take the opportunity to raise their prices, and the RenMinBi will depreciate again. The ordinary people will be burdened with even higher prices. It is really a bad practice to harm the others while not benefiting oneself. However, it is the consistent practice of the regime for decades to sacrifice the lives of ordinary Chinese for the political purposes of the Communist Party.

Second, China's economy is no longer self-sufficient. Production materials and technical services have long been internationalized. The depreciation of the Chinese currency directly puts a burden on the production sector, thus increasing resistance for technological upgrading and maintenance of production. This will not only damage the current economy, but also hinders future progress and creates a long-term economic downturn in China. Another attempt at harming others while not benefiting oneself.

Then there is the problem of finance itself. The analysis of most international financial experts points out that the rapid depreciation of the local currency will cause capital outflows. Even Karl Marx knew that capital must always choose the place of most lucrative profit to invest, and must flee from industries and fields where profits are negative. Putting capital in the depreciating RMB economy means that although the stable is not moving, your horses have run away. Therefore, capital outflow is a regularity during the depreciation of the currency.

China's debt situation is already very bad, almost the highest in the world. Both corporate and local governments rely on financial subsidies and support. Capital flight and cash out by the middle class will result the coming of a financial storm. It has not happened in the market economy in the way of financial collapse while its economy functions normally.

Is the development trend of Xi Jinping to go back to the planned economy of the original Communism? Repeating the old road and repeating the old suffering is just around the corner. Do the Chinese really have no memory? Can China returns the era of Mao Zedong? Looking ahead, it may be even worse than the Mao Zedong era. Even the little benefits for the Chinese of that era will be gone.

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-08092019151602.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS190807onFinancialWar.mp3

(Written and recorded on August 7, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1232-W850

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1232-W850

Release Date: August 10, 2019

发布日：2019年8月10日

Topic: US-China Trade War Has Developed Into a Financial War -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：贸易战发展到金融战 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-08/WeiJS190810onFinancialWarA1232-W850.htm

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贸易战发展到金融战

-- 魏京生

这几天国际间的最大新闻，就是中共降低了人民币的汇率，以此抵抗美国的关税战。一边吹牛说不怕关税，一边黔驴技穷，把贸易战引向了金融领域。刚刚开牌就亮底牌，说黔驴技穷不算过分吧。

各方都从不同的角度分析了汇率战的后果。这次就连中共收买的所谓专家学者，都很少说这一招管用。基本道理就在于实力不对等，双方较量的结果一目了然。老百姓的话说就叫做：瞎耽误工夫。

正常情况下，降低本币的汇率可以促进出口。中共的瞎参谋出这个馊主意的目的，也就是为了增加出口对抗美国的关税战。中共和他们收买的美国政客学者，一而再地撒谎说关税由美国消费者出。那为什么还要祭出汇率战来补贴出口呢？自打嘴巴。

不过说起来瞎参谋、烂干事们也不是完全没道理。一年多来他们用降低汇率的手段，不但抵消了加征百分之十的关税，还使得没征关税的大部分中国商品增加了竞争力。这就是中美贸易逆差不降反增的原因，真正打击了川普的政策，降低了他明年连任的可能性。

现在一小部分的税率提高到百分之二十五，大部分马上就要开征百分之十。于是瞎参谋计算了一下，把汇率再降一降，不是可以故伎重演，让川普继续上当吗？遗憾的是，川普还在学习和流氓打交道的方法，继续提高进口税的空间很大。骗子都懂得不能老用一种办法骗同一个人，瞎参谋骗人的水平有待提高。

骗不了美国人，对其它国家的出口还是会增加呀。这种嫁祸于人的办法也不会奏效，其它国家就能容忍更大的贸易逆差吗？谁都不是傻瓜。金融战保出口的计谋不成功，给中国经济造成的危害却是真实的存在。下边从几个方面略加分析。

首先是中国进口的负担大幅度增加。食品类和消费品价格提升直接造成通货膨胀，中国消费者是最大受害人。特别是中共为了贸易战不进口美国农产品，其它国家就会趁机抬高价格，人民币再一贬值，老百姓承担的价格就更高了。实在是损人不利己，为了共产党的政治目的牺牲老百姓的生活，是中共几十年来的一贯做法。

其次是中国的经济早已经不是自给自足了。生产资料和技术服务早已经很大程度国际化了。货币贬值直接给生产部门增加了负担，技术更新和维持生产都会加大阻力。这不但损害现在的经济，而且阻碍将来的进步，制造出长期经济低迷。又一个损人不利己。

再其次就是金融本身的问题了。多数国际金融专家的分析都指出，本币快速贬值将造成资本外流。连马克思都懂得，资本总要选择利润最丰厚的地方投资，必须逃离利润是负值的行业和领域。把资本投在贬值的人民币经济中，就等于门窗不动，让人家偷走了骡马。所以货币贬值造成资本外流是个规律。

中国的债务状况已经十分糟糕了，几乎世界之最。企业和地方政府都有赖于金融的补贴和支撑。资本外逃加上中产阶级挤兑，金融风暴就会随之而到来。金融崩溃而经济正常运行，在市场经济国家还没出现过。

习近平的发展趋势，就是要走回到共产主义计划经济去吗？走回头路，吃二遍苦指日可待。中国人真的就没有记性吗？现在还能走回毛泽东时代吗？展望前景，可能比毛泽东时代更糟糕，那个时代老百姓的一点点好处，可能就别想了。

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-08092019151602.html