Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1234-W852

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1234-W852

Release Date: August 17, 2019

发布日：2019年8月17日

Topic: Reasons and Consequences of Trump's Delay of Tariff on China -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：川普停止加税的原因和后果 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-08/WeiJS190817onTrumpTariffA1234-W852.htm which contains identical information.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Reasons and Consequences of Trump's Delay of Tariff on China

-- Wei Jingsheng

President Trump said that in consideration of the Christmas gift season, he decided to delay his decision to increase tariffs on China in September. It can be said that Xi Jinping won this round of the game. The tone of the Chinese media is: due to the tough attitude of the Communist regime, it made Trump stop raising tariffs. At least regarding the propaganda, Xi Jinping won this round.

Is it really because of Christmas gifts? Of course not. The news of more tariffs on September 1 caused the stock market index to fall, which is the real reason. Why is the stock market falling? That is because the increase of tariffs will result in the fall of the profits of the companies that make money from Chinese goods, thus driving the negative psychological effects of the overall stock market expectations.

To open this up: the big business that makes big money in China does not want to withdraw from China will have losses; in order to reduce their losses, Trump bowed to Xi Jinping. These big companies certainly will be very happy, but of course the American working-class people who have lost their jobs because of the relocation of factories to China will be unhappy. These voters are the basic voters who made Trump to be the President of the USA, the so-called "iron votes".

Xi Jinping's goal is well known, to make Trump lose the election and change to someone else to be the president to deal with, and it is best to create a psychological pressure on the new president: the Communist regime in China can not be offend, learning from Presidents Clinton and Obama. This way, the trade war will slowly deteriorate and eventually disappear into the agreement of nonsense. From the standpoint of the Communist regime, this is a successful strategy. From Trump's point of view, his re-election will be hopeless.

From the perspective of the overall interests of the United States, companies preparing to withdraw from China become hesitant; companies in the other countries that are preparing to replace Chinese goods stop their preparation. American businesses do not have to look for alternative industrial chains, but put their hopes in Trump stepping down -- to continue the appeasement policy toward China of the previous presidents and let the United States continue to decline rather than continue to be great. This will be the greatest contribution of President Trump to the United States. At least history will evaluate it this way.

From the perspective of China, there will be several results. The first is that there will be no structural reforms, its overall economy will continue to decline, and the common Chinese will continue to suffer. The flight of capital and talent will intensify, and social conflicts and internal fights within the Communist Party will not be weaken, but become more acute instead.

The operating conditions of private enterprises in China will further deteriorate with a rising unemployment rate. Although foreign-funded enterprises are helping the Communist regime to lobby, it will lose the backing of the US government because of the failure of Trump this time. The stolen intellectual properties of the foreign companies will be reduced, while it will be the norm to be forced to contribute or voluntarily contribute to technology and business channels. The European and Japanese companies will receive the same treatment.

The big business of the United States helped the Communist regime to lobby. They fear to offend the Communist Party in China and want to step on two boats. But will they fare well when the United States loses while the Communist regime wins? I am afraid that in the end they will not be able to stand on either boat.

An additional possible consequence is the situation in Hong Kong. Xi Jinping has no good choice on the issue of Hong Kong. If he makes concessions to the people of Hong Kong, the opposition within the Communist Party will push him down. When violent suppression and bloodshed lead to international sanctions, his stepping down will not be the only issue - his best result will be jail in the Qincheng Prison (the prison in Beijing that jails high level political prisoners), and his relatives and friends will be affected.

If the United States softens its attitude, just like President George H. Bush did 30 years ago, the consequences of the suppression by Chinese force may become acceptable; that is, the United States may once again give a green light to the military crackdown. The democratic situation in Hong Kong will be greatly reversed, and the people there will suffer heavily, with Hong Kong's status as a financial center soon disappearing, and its economy suffering a devastating blow.

Why does Trump make this wrong decision? Of course it was because of his wrong judgment. When Xi Jinping suddenly became tough, it illustrated that his position is unstable and he has to gamble, with hopes that Trump would surrender to the big business of the United States. If Xi wins, it proves that democracy in the United States is false, and the opposition within the Communist Party is wrong.

Trump's staff just made a wrong judgment, to think that Xi Jinping had a secret weapon and thus they had to compromise with him: this was in line with Xi's procrastination strategy. They found a very ridiculous excuse, which lost Trump's own face, as well as his advantage in the upcoming campaign.

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-08152019164730.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS190814onTrumpTariff.mp3

(Written and recorded on August 14, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is a message from WeiJingSheng.org

The Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help in any means. We pledge solidarity to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this planet.

You are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website at: www.weijingsheng.org

Although we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your contribution as well. You may send your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files, not in attachments.

For website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org

To find out more about us, please also visit our websites at:

www.WeiJingSheng.org and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org

for news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.

You may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or

Wei Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-270-6980

Wei Jingsheng Foundation's postal address is:

Wei Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA

You are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process your request.

*****************************************************************

中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1234-W852

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1234-W852

Release Date: August 17, 2019

发布日：2019年8月17日

Topic: Reasons and Consequences of Trump's Delay of Tariff on China -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：川普停止加税的原因和后果 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-08/WeiJS190817onTrumpTariffA1234-W852.htm

-----------------------------------------------------------------

川普停止加税的原因和后果

-- 魏京生

川普总统说，考虑到圣诞节礼物的原因，决定取消九月加税的决定。可以说这次习近平赢了一局，中国媒体的口气是：由于中共的强硬态度，命令川普停止了加税。至少宣传上习近平赢了一局。

是因为圣诞节礼物吗？当然不是。九月一号加税的消息造成了股市指数下跌，这才是真正的原因。股市为什么下跌呢？因为加税之后，靠中国商品赚钱的公司利润就会下跌，带动了股市整体预期的负面心理效应。

拆开来说就是：在中国赚大钱不想撤出的大资本会有损失；为了减少他们的损失，川普向习近平低头了。这些大企业肯定很高兴，可是因为企业迁往中国而受损失的美国工薪阶层，当然就会不高兴。这些选民正是造成川普当总统的基本选民，所谓的铁票。

习近平的目标路人皆知，让川普下台换个总统打交道，而且最好是给后边的总统造成一个心理压力：中共是不能得罪的，学学克林顿和奥巴马。这样贸易战就会慢慢地变质，最终消失在废话的协议之中。从中共的立场看，这是个成功的策略。从川普的角度看，他的连任没希望了。

从美国整体利益的角度看，准备撤出中国的企业犹豫了；准备替代中国商品的各国企业，停止启动了。美国的商家也不必寻找替代产业链，可以寄希望于川普下台了。继续前几任总统对中国的绥靖政策，让美国继续衰落而不是继续伟大，这就是川普总统对美国的最大贡献。至少历史必然会这样评价。

从中国的角度看，会产生好几个结果。首先是结构性改革没有了，整体经济会继续下滑，老百姓会继续被割韭菜。资本和人才外逃会变本加厉，社会矛盾和党内矛盾不仅不会减弱，反而会更加尖锐。

中国的民营企业经营状况会进一步恶化，失业率会进一步上升。外资企业虽然在帮助共产党游说，但因为川普这一次的失败，将会失去美国政府的靠山。被偷窃的情况会减少，被迫贡献或者自愿贡献技术和经营渠道会成为常态。欧洲和日本的企业会得到相同的待遇。

美国大资本帮助共产党游说，是想脚踩两只船，怕得罪共产党。但是美国输了，共产党赢了，他们会有什么好果子吃吗？恐怕一只船也踩不着。

额外的一个可能发生的后果，就是香港的局势。习近平在香港问题上已经没有好的选择了。向香港人民让步，党内反对派会把他轰下台。暴力镇压，血流成河，导致国际制裁，就不仅仅是轰下台。秦城监狱可能是最好的下场，并且还要连累亲戚朋友。

但是美国如果态度软化，就像三十年前的老布什总统一样，那么武力镇压的后果就不是不可接受，也就是美国可能会再一次向军事镇压开绿灯。香港的民主形势会大幅度逆转，人民会遭受重大损失，金融中心的地位会很快消失，经济会遭受毁灭性的打击。

川普为什么会有这个错误的决定呢？当然因为错误的判断。当习近平突然强硬起来时，说明他的地位不稳，不得不赌一把，希望川普会向美国大资本投降。赢了就证明美国的民主是假的，党内反对派是错误的。

而川普的参谋班子恰好做出了错误的判断，以为习近平有什么秘密武器而不得不向习近平妥协：这正好符合了习近平的拖延战略，而且找了一个非常可笑的借口。这丢了川普自己的面子，也丢了即将开始的竞选优势。

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-08152019164730.html