Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1263-W879

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1263-W879

Release Date: Nov. 19, 2019

发布日：2019年11月19日

Topic: The Development Trend of Hong Kong Protests and Demonstrations (part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：香港抗议游行的发展趋势（之二） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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(As of 6pm on Nov. 19, the US Senate has unanimously passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 (S 1838), sponsored by Senator Rubio.)

The Development Trend of Hong Kong Protests and Demonstrations (Part 2)

-- Wei Jingsheng

The situation in Hong Kong has developed to today’s point, with police violence escalating substantially and people’s resistance also has gradually escalating. Public opinion generally thinks it is caused by Xi Jinping’s single-minded stubbornness, and most people in Hong Kong also think that police violence has caused people’s antagonism. Beijing and the Hong Kong Government must bear the primary responsibility for the current chaotic situation.

The most important media in the United States have published editorials trying to find a solution for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). They hold that if the strategy of repression is continued, the people's resistance will enter a long-term state of protracted war. Coupled with the fact that American public opinion could not countenance another Tiananmen Massacre of 1989, Hong Kong’s economic future could be destroyed by Xi Jinping. The way out is to compromise with the people and discuss with people from all walks of life a peaceful solution to solve the political turmoil. This is the conventional method for Western democracies to solve social crises, which has been effective for many years.

Many people estimate that Xi Jinping is unwilling to opt for a political solution. He still believes in the fascist philosophy of suppression by force. He believes that a peaceful settlement could damage the authority of the dictatorship and lead to the further decline of the one-party dictatorship. This attitude forces the resisting people to move into a decentralized, long-term and more violent mode of rebellion. Even without US sanctions, Hong Kong’s economy may collapse.

What supports Hong Kong’s economic vitality, which is different from the mainland China, is precisely its system of laws and its market economy. The victory of the CCP would mark the further mainlandization of Hong Kong. A one-party dictatorship system with no law and no morality; a non-market system with the Communist Party running the economy will replace the existing system in Hong Kong. The end result is that Hong Kong's prosperity will disappear and the entire world will no longer maintain faith in a Hong Kong that has disappeared.

Exactly for this reason, the struggle of the people of Hong Kong is a struggle with no room for retreat. The ambiguous attitude of the US government has therefore been attacked by public opinion. The CCP has also thunderously attacked sanctions that have not yet been imposed. The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019, which was passed unanimously by the US House of Representatives and will be passed by the US Senate soon, is the only action that the United States has taken to deter the Chinese Communist Party, other than appeals.

At this critical moment, the Communist Party’s hidden friends have come forward with something to say. American scholars who have long played the role of friends of Chinese democracy said: The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act will not affect the CCP's decision-making. Quickly another group of experts and scholars said: This bill can only hurt the economy of Hong Kong and the people of Hong Kong, including the interests of the United States in Hong Kong. And they even mock the members of Congress for being mentally abnormal.

The sophistry of these scholars is really extraordinary, with their sophisticated ability to hide distorted facts and mistakes in their premises. Does the CCP really not care about the criticism of public opinion? Then why has the CCP spent hundreds of billions on foreign propaganda? Do they really not care about international sanctions? Then why do they fly into a rage over something still under discussion? Even we few political prisoners clearly felt the treatment we received in jails was directly related to the attention of international public opinion.

To say that the bill is not good for Hong Kong’s economy and the people is premised on a past situation. The current state is that they already have been destroyed by the violent suppression of the CCP. The struggle of the people of Hong Kong is precisely to maintain and to restore that past situation. The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of the USA is also intended to restore and maintain that past condition. The scholars are using sophisticated sophistry to push the responsibility for the destruction onto the victims, while the criminals inflicting the injuries become the victims. The money for such big foreign propaganda was really not given in vain.

The attitude of the White House to Hong Kong has vacillated from time to time, while the attitude of Congress has been unusually determined. After the bill passes the Senate, President Trump cannot adopt a neglectful attitude. He will be very concerned about the impact of public opinion around the world on his personal situation and the international stature of the United States. If Xi Jinping continues his perverse practices, it will further anger world public opinion. The slight sanctions imposed after the June 4th Massacre in 1989 will seem like an unattainable dream by comparison. In that case it will not just be Hong Kong that is destroyed, but the economy in China will be destroyed as well, as jade and stone are destroyed in fire altogether. The same expression exists in Cantonese as well.

Many people can't figure this out: In such an obvious situation, how can Xi Jinping and the Chinese leadership not see it? Is Xi Jinping's authority too big that everyone dares not to speak? Or has the system of reverse elimination been too effective, and so left no one to be a real man? Are all the CCP members eunuchs?

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11192019143430.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS191118onHKtrend2.mp3

(Written and recorded on Nov. 18, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on Nov. 19.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1263-W879

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1263-W879

Release Date: Nov. 19, 2019

发布日：2019年11月19日

Topic: The Development Trend of Hong Kong Protests and Demonstrations (part 2) -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：香港抗议游行的发展趋势（之二） -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-11/WeiJS191119onHKtrend2A1263-W879.htm

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(2019年11月19日下午6点，美国参议院一致通过了由卢比奥参议员提出的《香港人权与民主法案》（S 1838）。)

香港抗议游行的发展趋势（之二）

-- 魏京生

香港的局势发展到今天这一步，警察暴力大幅度升级，人民反抗也在逐步升级。舆论普遍认为这是习近平的一意孤行造成的。香港大多数人也认为是警察暴力造成了人民的对抗，北京和港府要对目前的混乱局面负主要责任。

美国最主要的媒体发表社论，试图为中共找出解决的办法。他们认为如果继续采取镇压的策略，人民的反抗会进入长期坚持的持久战状态。再加上美国舆论不可能允许再一次出现天安门屠杀，香港的经济前途也将会被习近平毁灭。出路就是向人民妥协，和各界人民商讨和平解决政治动荡的方法。这也是西方民主国家解决社会危机的常规方法，多年来行之有效。

很多人估计习近平不愿意采取政治解决。他仍然迷信武力镇压的法西斯哲学，认为和平解决就会丧失专政的权威，进一步导致一党专政的衰落。这就迫使抗争的民众转入分散的、长期的和更倾向于暴力的反抗模式。就算没有美国的制裁，香港的经济也会垮台。

因为支撑香港不同于大陆经济活力的，正是它的法律体系和市场经济体系。中共的胜利，就标志着香港进一步大陆化。一党专政的无法无天的法律体系；党营经济的非市场体系，将取代香港现有的制度。结局就是香港的繁荣将会消失，全世界都不会再对消失的香港保持信任。

正是由于这个原因，香港人民的抗争是退无可退的最后斗争。美国政府的暧昧态度因此受到舆论的抨击。中共也对尚未发生的制裁暴跳如雷。被众议院全体通过，参议院很快就会通过的香港人权民主法案，是目前美国除了呼吁以外，唯一对共产党造成实际威慑的行动。

正在这个关键时刻，暗藏的共产党朋友们出面有话说了。有长期扮演中国民主朋友的美国学者说：香港人权民主法案不会影响中共的决策。很快就有另一批专家学者说：这个法案只会伤害到香港的经济和香港人民，包括美国在香港的利益，甚至讽刺国会议员们头脑不正常。

这些学者的诡辩手法果然不同凡响，歪曲事实和把错误藏在前提里，玩得炉火纯青。共产党真的不在乎舆论的抨击吗？那花费几千亿的大外宣是干什么的呢？真的不在乎国际的制裁吗？那为什么还在讨论就暴跳如雷了呢？连我们这些小小的政治犯，在狱中都清楚地感觉到，我们所受到的对待，和国际舆论的关注度有直接的联系。

说法案对香港经济和人民不利，其前提是指的过去的状态。现在的状态是，已经被中共的暴力镇压破坏了。香港人民的抗争，正是为了保持和恢复过去的状态。美国的法案，也是为了保持和恢复过去的状态。那些学者们用纯熟的诡辩手法，把破坏的责任推给了受害者；把加害的罪犯变成了受害者。大外宣的钱确实不白给。

白宫对香港的态度不时有所摇摆，国会的态度异乎寻常地坚决。在参议院通过法案之后，川普总统不可能采取忽视的态度。他会非常关注全世界舆论对他个人事业和美国国际地位的影响。如果习近平继续倒行逆施，进一步激怒世界舆论，六四之后的那种轻微的制裁，就是可望而不可即的梦想了。那时被毁灭的就不仅仅是香港，中国的经济也会连带着玉石俱焚。就是广东话说的揽炒。

很多人都想不通：如此明显的局面，习近平和中国领导层怎么就看不清呢？是习近平权威太大大家都不敢说话？还是逆淘汰体制太有效，更无一人是男儿，中共全体太监了？

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11192019143430.html