Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1265-W881

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1265-W881

Release Date: Nov. 25, 2019

发布日：2019年11月25日

Topic: The First Stage Victory of the Hong Kong People -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：香港人民第一阶段的胜利 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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The First Stage Victory of the Hong Kong People

-- Wei Jingsheng

During the district council election on November 24 in Hong Kong, the pro-democracy camp had a landslide victory and won nearly 90% of the seats. Many observers say that the first unexpected thing is that it was so very one-sided, while the second unexpected thing is that people used their votes to say no to the tyranny of the Communist regime in China. This is tantamount to a referendum.

The reason for the unexpected result is because before the vote even the most optimistic people only estimated that the pro-democracy parties would marginally win, while the pessimistic sympathizers even said that the outcome was unpredictable. No one estimated that the consciousness of the people of Hong Kong was so high, nor did they estimate that the full interference of the Communist regime was so ineffective. This victory is a victory against interference, as well as a victory of awakening awareness of rights. If anyone should be given credit for helping the most, it is the Communist regime that fully demonstrated its tyranny, thus awakening the people of Hong Kong and the international community.

On the premise that ballots can still be used to solve the problem, the people of Hong Kong seem very rational. Protesters of peace, rationality and non-violence did not abandon their brave alliance at the most difficult time of the struggle; while the ballots could be effective, the brave group did not behave irrationally. Such a struggle is also unique in the history of modern democratic movements. Who claims that the Chinese are of low quality? We cheer for the people of Hong Kong.

I have always believed that the persistence of the people of Hong Kong, including their courageous self-defense actions, is the main reason moving the people and the world. Without the resistance, persistence, and unity of the democratic camp, it will not be possible to win the support of the people and the international community. If one is not trying but waiting for the pie to fall from the sky, then one will not get anything from one's effort to fetch the moon from the water.

Their adversary, the pro-Beijing camp, is a camp without initiative, accustomed to waiting for the pie to fall from the central government in Beijing. The officials elected by the reverse elimination system of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are accustomed to misreporting for personal gain; those Chinese and foreign media and scholars who have been bought off are also accustomed to lying in accordance with the intention of their master. After all, their boss is not accustomed to listening to the truth. As long as they can get benefits, why do they care whether you live or die? The drama that happened at the ends of the ancient Chinese dynasties has returned to the corruptive dictatorship of the CCP.

This time, it was the timely intervention of the international community with a weight that is small yet vital. Mainly the timely statements of the US Congress and the US President awakened sensible people within the CCP. These statements promptly stopped Xi Jinping's further brutal actions, forcing him to compromise with the Hong Kong democrats and stop interference with the elections, and begin a new phase of parliamentary democracy in Hong Kong. It is tantamount to a step further forward toward the Five Major Demands.

Many scholars who pretend to be fair but in fact lean to the CCP claimed that the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of the USA is useless and will not affect the CCP to change its policy of repression. Why did Xi Jinping change? This bill, and President Trump 's statement that he has linked the trade war with the bloody crackdown in Hong Kong, as well as the repeated emphasis by the US Secretary of State Pompeo and Vice President Pence of their President 's stance, have awakened Xi Jinping and the remaining rational officials within the Communist regime. In order to avoid being attacked by the enemy from the front and back, they had to compromise with the people of Hong Kong.

This small yet vital weight, was enough to play a key role between the two evenly matched big forces. Xi Jinping has military police and the determination to use violence, but he is more concerned about the economy and their own survival. The unanimous vote of the U.S. House of Representatives and the US Senate proved the firm opposition of American society against Xi Jinping's tyranny. If he continues to crack down on Hong Kong's democratic movement, the trade sanctions from the USA will cause economic collapse in China and soon lead to the collapse of the Communist regime there. This is the lesson they concluded from the collapse of the Soviet Union.

This time, Xi Jinping hasn't been stupid to his extremes. He hasn't obeyed the clamor of suppression by the extreme forces within the CCP, and was able to apply brakes in time to avoid a rapid collapse. Keeping a sober mind and learning to compromise in adverse situations maybe will gain a situation for both trade and Hong Kong issues to pass.

But is Xi Jinping willing to accept the defeat? Will the stubborn extreme forces within the CCP be willing to accept the defeat? After compromise to the United States on trade issues, will they wait for the opportunity to fight back? This is a question that our friends in Hong Kong need to be vigilant about without relaxing. The road to parliamentary democracy is still long, and difficult and unpredictable things will happen. There is an old saying that everything stands if prepared, and fails if not prepared. I hope our friends in Hong Kong will keep a clear and calm mind.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11252019144719.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS191125onHKvictory.mp3

(Written November 24 and recorded on Nov. 25, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on Nov. 25, 2019.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1265-W881

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1265-W881

Release Date: Nov. 25, 2019

发布日：2019年11月25日

Topic: The First Stage Victory of the Hong Kong People -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：香港人民第一阶段的胜利 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-11/WeiJS191125onHKvictoryA1265-W881.htm

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香港人民第一阶段的胜利

-- 魏京生

香港时间十一月二十四日的投票中，民主派在区议会选举中大获全胜，获得了接近九成的席位。很多观察者都说，第一是出乎意料之外的一边倒，第二是人民用选票对共产党的暴政说不。这等于是一次全民公投。

之所以出乎意料之外，是因为投票前最乐观的人也只估计到会胜出，悲观的同情者们甚至还在说胜负难料。没有人估计到香港人民的觉悟如此之高，也没有估计到共产党的全力干扰竟如此无效。这次的胜利是抗干扰的胜利，也是权利意识觉醒的胜利。若说谁帮了最大的忙，要数共产党充分展示它的暴政，惊醒了香港人民和国际社会。

在尚可利用选票解决问题的前提下，香港人民显得非常理智。和理非的抗议者在斗争最艰难之时，没有抛弃自己的勇武者同盟；在选票可以有效发挥作用之时，勇武派没有不理智的行为。这样的抗争，在近代民主运动史上，也是绝无仅有。谁说中国人素质低？我们为香港人民欢呼。

我一向认为，香港人民的坚持，包括勇敢的自卫行动，是感动人民和世界的主要原因。没有民主派的反抗、坚持和不割席，就无法赢得人民和国际社会的支持。自己不努力等着天上掉馅饼，只能是井中捞月一场空。

他们的对手建制派则是没有主动性的一方，习惯于等着中央给他们掉馅饼。而中共的逆淘汰体制选出来的官员，习惯于谎报军情谋私利；那些被收买的中外媒体和学者，也习惯于顺着主子的意图撒谎。反正老板也不习惯听真话，只要能拿到好处，谁管你死活呢？中国古代王朝末年的戏码，在腐败专制的中共身上借尸还魂了。

这次起到四两拨千斤作用的，正是国际社会的及时干预。主要是美国议会和总统的及时表态，惊醒了中共内部尚有理智的人士。这及时制止了习近平的进一步粗暴行动，迫使他向香港民主派妥协，停止干扰选举，开始了香港的议会民主新阶段。等于是向五大诉求又近了一步。

很多假装公平实际却倾向中共的学者，都说美国的香港人权民主法案没什么用，不会影响中共改变镇压的政策。为什么习近平还是改变了呢？这是因为这个法案，和川普总统把贸易战和香港血腥镇压联系的表态，以及美国国务卿和副总统反复强调总统的立场，惊醒了习近平和党内尚存理智的官员。为了避免腹背受敌，他们不得不向香港人民妥协。

四两虽轻，但足以在势均力敌的两大力量之间起关键的作用。习近平有军队警察和使用暴力的决心，但他更关心的是经济和他们自己的生存。美国参众两院一致的表决，证明了美国社会对习近平暴政的坚定反对。如果他继续血腥镇压香港民主运动，美国的贸易制裁将导致中国的经济崩溃，并很快导致中共垮台。这是他们总结的苏联崩溃的教训。

这次小习还没有傻到家，没有顺从党内极端势力镇压的叫嚣，及时刹车避免了迅速垮台的下场。继续保持清醒的头脑，学会在不利形势下妥协，也许会是一个贸易和香港问题都过关的局面。

但是小习会甘心失败吗？中共党内顽固极端势力会甘心失败吗？在贸易问题上向美国妥协之后，会不会伺机反扑呢？这是香港朋友们需要警惕，不可稍有松懈的问题。议会民主的道路还很长，艰难险阻不可预测的事情都会发生。古语说：凡事预则立，不预则败。希望香港的朋友们保持清醒冷静的头脑。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-11252019144719.html