Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1257-W873

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1257-W873

Release Date: November 8, 2019

发布日：2019年11月8日

Topic: It Is Time to Make the Right Choice -- Wei Jingsheng's Speech in Celebrating the 30th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall at the Triumph of Liberty Conference by the Victims of the Communism Memorial Foundation

标题：该做出正确的选择了 -- 魏京生在共产主义受难者纪念基金会举办的庆祝柏林墙倒塌30周年的《自由凯旋》会议上的讲演

Original Language Version: English (Chinese version at the end)

此号以英文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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It Is Time to Make the Right Choice

-- Wei Jingsheng's Speech in Celebrating the 30th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall at the Triumph of Liberty Conference by the Victims of the Communism Memorial Foundation

November 8, 2019

Washington DC, USA

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, great changes took place in the group of the Communist states, thus also introducing tremendous changes in the global political landscape. The occurrence of this change began in the Democracy Wall movement that took place in the late 1970s. Shortly after the emergence of the Xidan Democracy Wall in Beijing, the Democracy Wall Movement appeared in many places including Moscow, Warsaw, and Taipei, etc. This is the beginning of the wave of democratization that almost spread across the whole world in the 1980s.

The Tiananmen democracy movement that took place in 1989 was the beginning of the collapse of the group of the Communist states. The dissatisfaction of the people of the Communist countries against tyranny and economic deprivation, under the guidance of different political leaders, include His Excellency Joachim Gauck, the Truman-Reagan Medal of Freedom Recipient we will honor today, shocked the system of one-party dictatorship, resulting in transformation of the autocratic regimes of the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and Taiwan into democratic governments.

Why wasn't there any success in China? This is a puzzle that people have been thinking about for years. Let us first look at the differences in various aspects. The first element of every revolution is what people hope for. The brainwashing work of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is obviously more successful than that of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, and China's economic reform and opening up has improved the lives of a majority of people and slowed down the level of dissatisfaction. Therefore, during the democracy movement in the Tiananmen Square in 1989, most Chinese only wanted to reform some specific issues, without wanting to overthrow the tyranny of the Communist Party.

In contrast, the people and leaders of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union were more aware of the fact that other issues cannot be resolved without overthrowing the one-party dictatorship of the Communist Party. The difference in objectives leads to different outcomes. The conditions for the successful suppression by the Chinese Communist regime were precisely because of the unclear goals of the people and leaders. They were already rebellious, yet did not know why they were rebelling. The result could only be that this movement would be suppressed successfully.

The second important factor is the awareness and determination of the government leadership. The leadership in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union in 1989 was no longer the first generation of revolutionaries, nor a group of people who believed in communism. They were more concerned about the reality of society and the wishes of the people. In other words, those who believed in one-party dictatorship and repression were already a minority in the leadership. The cultural quality in the military was relatively high as well, which made driving them to massacre their own people to be more difficult.

Yet in 1989, China was precisely the first generation of revolutionaries, with the Communist regime dominated by the people who still believed in Communism and one-party dictatorship, a so-called "dictatorship of the elderly". They were more likely to make decisions of suppression by force. The middle and upper levels of the military did not know what the goal of the movement was, and it was impossible for them to defy the political leaders. Many people in the lower classes of the military originated from extremely poor rural areas, with low quality. They did not know how the movement had anything to do with themselves. But killing people can make a difference in their own ranking. The combination of these factors was the cause of the Tiananmen Massacre on June 4, 1989 in China.

The third important factor was the direction of the diplomatic efforts of the democratic countries. At that time, in the entire communist camp, there was a movement of resistance and demand of democracy. To support whom or not was in the range of choices of Western leaders. President Reagan and President Bush apparently chose Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, thinking that as the main enemy of the Western democratic countries and the main force of the Cold War. However, they gave up the Chinese Communist Party which was in a relatively friendly relationship, as it was practicing a "hiding the sword blades and waiting for the opportunity of attack" strategy. This has caused the difficulty within the Western democratic camp today.

Although China was the first to launch a rebellion in the communist camp, although there were many unfavorable factors as mentioned above, the biggest concern of Deng Xiaoping before the June 4 massacre was the attitude of the Western democratic camp. Although the Chinese army assembled nearby Beijing for a long time, Deng did not start the Massacre immediately as he was hesitant of the attitude of the United States. President George H. W. Bush's speech of non-interference in China's internal affairs and a quick replacement of the ambassador to China who supported the democrats sent a very clear signal to Deng Xiaoping, which was equivalent to supporting his massacre.

At that time, within the Chinese leadership, the forces against repression and support for repression were evenly matched. The non-intervention attitude of the United States is precisely the last straw that overwhelmed the camel. The first factor and the second factor are constants. The real variables that has changed the history in China, were the decisions of President George H. W. Bush and the US government, with the reasons that even now are not clear to us.

It is an excuse to argue afterwards that the Soviet Union was chosen instead of China. If the Tiananmen democracy movement succeeded, would it be detrimental to the resistance of the Soviet Union and the people of Eastern Europe? This is illogical. On the contrary, if the Tiananmen democracy movement succeeded, the revolutions in the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries would be even smoother and less dangerous.

Today in Hong Kong, once again, people risk their lives to fight for democracy and freedom. The determination of the people in Hong Kong and the stubbornness of the Communist regime in China are two constant numbers. The most important variable that again see choices of Western politicians that will result in bloodshed? The result of this bloodshed may not even be the success of Western choice, but the expansion of Communist tyranny on a global scale.

I oppose this inexplicable and stupid choice.

Related photos:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2019/newsletters2019-4/WeiJSspeaking191108BerlinWall30-c-4.jpg

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2019/newsletters2019-4/WeiJSetc191108BerlinWall30-c-3.jpg

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1257-W873

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1257-W873

Release Date: November 8, 2019

发布日：2019年11月8日

标题：该做出正确的选择了 -- 魏京生在共产主义受难者纪念基金会举办的庆祝柏林墙倒塌30周年的《自由凯旋》会议上的讲演

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-11/WeiJSspeech191108BerlinWall30thA1257-W873.htm

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该做出正确的选择了

-- 魏京生在共产主义受难者纪念基金会举办的庆祝柏林墙倒塌30周年的《自由凯旋》国际会议上的讲演

2019年11月8日

美国首都华盛顿特区

上世纪八十年代末和九十年代初，共产主义国家集团发生了巨大的变化，也使得全球的政治格局发生了巨大的变化。这个变化的发生，开始于七十年代末发生的民主墙运动。在北京的西单民主墙出现后不久，在莫斯科、华沙、台北等许多地方很快都出现了民主墙运动。这就是八十年代几乎波及全球的民主化浪潮的开始。

一九八九年发生的天安门民主运动，是导致共产主义国家集团崩溃的开始。共产党国家的人民对暴政和经济匮乏的不满情绪，在持不同政见领袖引导下，包括今天将获得杜鲁门－里根自由勋章的约阿希姆·高克先生，冲击了一党专政的体系，造成了苏联、东欧和台湾的专制政体，转型为民主政体。

为什么在中国没有成功？这是多年来人们在思考的一个谜题。我们首先来看看各方面条件的不同。每一次革命的第一要素，就是人们的希望是什么。中国共产党的洗脑工作显然比苏联东欧更成功，而且中国的经济改革开放改善了大部分人的生活，减缓了人们不满的程度。所以天安门民主运动的时候，大部分中国人只想改革一些具体的问题，没有想推翻共产党的暴政。

而东欧和苏联的人民和领袖们更清楚地意识到，不推翻共产党的一党专政，其它问题不可能解决。目标的不同导致结果的不同，中共成功镇压的条件，正是人民和领袖的目标不明确。已经在造反了，却不知道为什么造反。结果只能是被成功地镇压下去。

第二个重要的因素，是政府领导层的意识和决心。1989年的东欧和苏联的领导层已经不是第一代革命者，不是迷信共产主义的那一批人。他们更关心的是现实的社会和人民的愿望。或者说，迷信一党专政和镇压的，在领导层内已经是少数，军队的文化素质也比较高，很难驱使他们枪杀自己的人民。

而1989年的中国恰恰是第一代革命者占多数，仍然迷信共产主义和一党专政的人，在领导层内占优势，也就是所谓的老人专政。他们比较容易做出武力镇压的决策。而军队的中上层不清楚运动的目标是什么，不可能贸然抗命。军队的下层许多人素质偏低，来源于极端贫困的农村，不懂得运动和他们自己有什么关系，而杀人却可以立功改变自己的命运。这些因素合并起来，就是造成六四天安门大屠杀的原因。

第三个重要的因素，就是民主国家阵营外交努力的方向。当时在整个共产主义阵营里，都酝酿着反抗和要民主的运动。支持谁或不支持谁，是西方大国领袖们选择的范围。里根总统和老布什总统，显然选择了东欧和苏联，认为那才是西方民主国家的主要敌人，冷战的主力；却放弃了实行韬光养晦战略，和西方比较友好的中国共产党。这造成了今天西方民主阵营自己的困境。

虽然中国是共产主义阵营中最先发起反抗的；虽然有许多如上述的不利因素；但是邓小平在出兵屠杀前最大的顾虑，就是西方民主阵营的态度。军队集结在北京附近很长时间没有动手，他在犹豫美国是什么态度。老布什总统不干涉中国内政的讲话，和临时替换支持民主派的驻华大使，给邓小平发出了很明显的信号，等于支持了屠杀。

当时在中国领导层内部，反对镇压和支持镇压的力量势均力敌。美国的不干涉态度，恰恰是压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草。第一个因素和第二个因素，都是常数。真正的变数，改变了历史的变数，就是老布什总统和美国政府的决策。其中的原因，我们现在也并不清楚。

说选择了苏联而不是中国，这是一种事后的辩解。天安门民主运动如果成功，会不利于苏联和东欧人民的反抗吗？这不合逻辑。正好相反，如果天安门民主运动成功了，苏联和东欧的革命会更加顺利，更少危险。

今天在香港，人民再一次冒着生命的危险争取民主和自由。香港人民的决心和共产党的顽固是两个不变的定数。能够改变结果的那个最重要的变数，正是美国和西方大国的态度。难道我们将再一次看到西方政治家的选择，造成血流成河的结果吗？这一次血流成河的结果，可能不会是西方选择的成功，而是共产主义暴政在全球范围的扩张。

我反对这种莫名其妙和愚蠢的选择。