Mongolia: Survive in the Geopolitical Crack
Gang Yin
*
When people talk about
Mongolia or Mongols, the first thing that comes to mind is Genghis Khan. In the
13th century, Genghis Khan and his successors built a vast empire
from the Pacific to the Danube, from the hinterland of Siberia to the South
China Sea. The brief brilliance had become an important part of world history
and the eternal pride of the Mongolian nation.
Over the next few centuries,
Mongolia kept silencing and hiding in China’s territory quietly, until the
“specter of Communism” brought it a new agitation at the beginning of the 20th
century. However, as the Soviet Union's first satellite, the Communist Utopia
of Khorloogiin Choibalsan did not rekindle the nation's glory – its politics and
ideology fully tilted towards the Socialist Camp, the weak industrial system
was vulnerable, more than 90% of its economic and trade activities relied on
the Comecon. People had to live with poverty and despotism, the nation had been
shivering under the authority of the Soviet Empire, the shadow of the
Sino-Soviet split and the cold snap of Siberia.
The collapse of the Soviet
Union and Eastern Europe brought new opportunities to Mongolia, the Communist
(Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party) regime that had ruled the country for
sixty-six years was ousted in a peaceful democratic revolution in 1990, a
multi-party system and a market economy was established. But the process of
democratization in Mongolia was slower than that in Eastern European countries,
and the problems of high inflation and food shortage in 1990s had severely
bothered the Mongols who just experienced democratic process. Since the
beginning of the millennium, Mongolia's economic situation has improved, and
the annual economic growth has maintained at a reasonable or high level.
With its 603,909 square miles
(1,564,116 square kilometers) of territory, Mongolia is the second-largest
landlocked country behind Kazakhstan in the world's. Russia and China are its
only neighbors. For political, historical, cultural and economic reasons,
Mongolia maintains a complex and delicate relationship with them.
Mongolia was once a part of
China, there is a deep historical connection between them. After Mao Zedong
seized the power, Mongolia was one of the first country to recognize the
People’s Republic of China (PRC) - they established diplomatic relations in
October 1949 and trade relations in 1951 (In fact, the Republic of China in
Taiwan did not officially recognize Mongolia as an independent country until
2002). Although Mongolia was a satellite of the Soviet Union, its historical
and geographical links with China decided that it had to keep a balance between
the two superpowers carefully, even during the worst time of Sino-Soviet
relations in 1960s and 1970s. After 1990s, democratic Mongolia, which has
been driven by multiple interests, further strengthened its relations with
Communist China: politically, the two countries signed the Treaty on
Friendly Relations and Cooperation Between the People’s Republic of China and
Mongolia in 1994, the heads of State and Government of the two countries
have frequent interactions since then. In 2014, China-Mongolia relations were
upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Mongolia is also a supporter
and participant of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”. Economically, China has
been Mongolia's largest trading partner and investor for many years in a row.
According to the statistics of the Chinese Customs, the total Sino-Mongolian
trade value increased form US$ 362 million of 2001 to US$854 million of 2018[1],
China accounts for 84% of Mongolia's total exports in 2015[2].
Political cooperation and
economic dependence do not mean that Mongols are not wary of China’s influence
in their country. First, Mongolia is geographically close to the political core
of China (only two hours flight from Ulaanbaatar to Beijing). Neighboring such
an increasingly powerful regime, some Mongolians have been worried about the
possibility of China’s territorial claims. Second, the Mongols were divided
into two parts after the country's independence -- the independent Mongolia
(former Out Mongolia) and Inner Mongolia of China, the current situation is in
conflicts with the traditional Mongolian idea of establishing a unified and powerful
country. in addition, Qing Dynasty of China imposed strict rules on Mongolia
two centuries ago, led to a large decrease of the population of Mongol. These
problems have long rankled Mongolian nationalists. Third, China’s investment in
Mongolia's mining and power industries has led to serious pollution of the
local environment and destruction of natural resources, which result in the
deterioration of the already fragile ecological environment and caused
widespread protests by herders and environmentalists. China has also intervened
in Mongolian religious affairs by providing grants and donations to the temples
in Mongolia and encouraging Buddhists to visit the Panchen Lama in China.
The bilateral relations
between Mongolia and the Russian (former the Soviet Union) have been
traditionally strong since the Communist era. As the architect of Mongolia's
independence, the Soviets gave full support and assistance to Communist
Mongolia. After the collapse of the Soviet Empire, relations between the two states
once chilled under the influence of anti-communist and nationalist thoughts in
Mongolia. But Russia quickly realized that Mongolia is indispensable to its
geopolitical advantage in East Asia, Mongolia also found that it is important
to counterweight China’s growing influence by using Russia’s power. In 2000,
President Vladimir Putin made a landmark official visit to Mongolia—the first
by a Russian head of state since Leonid Brezhnev in 1974[3].
The two countries have strengthened economic and trade ties, Russia wrote off
most of Mongolia's foreign debt, increased investment in Mongolian domestic
industries and imports of Mongolian husbandry products. In 2016, the two
countries signed an agreement to develop a strategic cooperative partnership.
Facing the two giant
neighbors, Mongolia must find other forces to establish a multilateral balance
if it wants to remain independent in politics and economy. Third Neighbor
policy became an important diplomatic strategy after the democratization of
Mongolia. The term was first mentioned by U.S. Secretary of State James Baker
in a meeting with Mongolian leaders during his visit in August 1990. Baker
said, “referring to the U.S. as a third neighbor.”[4] Baker's
suggestion was not immediately considered because the country was in its most
chaotic post-Cold War time, politicians were too busy at home to think about
further diplomatic strategy. Mongolia's economy stabilized and developed after
stepping into the 21st century, policymakers began to plan a
long-term national geopolitical strategy. Although political conflicts among
the parties are fierce, all of them can maintain a consistent position on
issues that concerning national interests, whether the pro-Western Democratic
Party or the pro-Russian Mongolian People's Party (formerly known as the
Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party). The concept of Third Neighbor
eventually became formalized in the country’s foreign policy. In Mongolia's
diplomatic philosophy, the Third Neighbor could be a country or a combination of
several countries or an international organization. Differ from the two
permanent geographical neighbors, Third Neighbor might be constantly adjusted
according to the national geopolitical requirement and the wishes of both
sides.
Initially, Mongolia tended to
choose a closer country which had economic and trade ties with it as its third
neighbor, then Japan became the first choice. Due to the diplomatic friction
with China cause by historical issues at that time, Japan also needed a new
economic and trade partnership upon consideration of geopolitical factors.
Mongolia's abundant mineral natural resources are what Japan values most. In
October 2015, Mongolian Prime Minister Ch. Saikhanbileg and Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for major
economic cooperation and development of mining and infrastructure at Tavan
Tolgoi, including a railroad. These mega-projects will not only strengthen
economic ties between Mongolia and Japan but have a direct effect on employment
and support for domestic workers.[5]
Starting from President
Punsalmaagiin Ochirbat (in office from 1990 to 1997), every President has paid
attention to developing a balanced multilateral diplomacy on the basis of
maintaining good relations with China and Russia. The current President of
Mongolia is Khaltmaagiin Battulga, he belongs to the Mongolian Democratic
Party, and had served as Member of the State Great Khural for 12 years until
his Party was defeated due to the failure of economic policies in the election
of the State Great Khural in 2016. He won the presidential election in 2017 for
his advocacy of economic growth, jobs and anti-corruption. In his swearing-in
speech, Battulga promised to lift people out of poverty as soon as possible and
rescue them from unemployment. He stressed that Mongolia will develop
comprehensive peaceful and friendly relations with its two permanent neighbors
- China and Russia. After taking the office, Battulga began to expand economic
and trade cooperation with developed countries outside the region and
identified the United States as the Third Neighbor of Mongolia's geopolitics.
During the Soviet period,
Mongolia had little relations with the US because of the Cold War and the
diplomatic relations between the United States and the Republic of China in
Taiwan. It didn’t establish official diplomatic relations with the US until
1987, which was much later than its Eastern European brethren, also eight years
later than China. After the Cold War, the political and economic assistance
to Mongolia from the Western countries led by the United States enhanced the
ties between the two countries. However, due to the factor of Russia and
China, such relationship did not develop significantly, even President George
W. Bush visited Mongolia in 2005 and Vice President Joe Biden had another visit
in 2011.
In July 2019, President
Battulga visited the United States and met with President Trump, they discussed
further bilateral economic and trade cooperation, the Declaration on the
Strategic Partnership Between the United States and Mongolia was also
released. This declaration indicates Mongolia’s successful utilization of its
Third Neighbor policy and makes the United States the fifth country to ink a
strategic partnership with Mongolia[6]. Battulga’s visit came at a
time when US-Russia relations have deteriorated due to the US withdrawal from Intermediate-Range
Nuclear Forces Treaty as well as the trade war between China and the US is
raging. Sandwiched between Russia and China, Mongolia will play a more
important role in America's future geopolitical strategy in East Asia. After
all, democratic Mongolia is easier to work with than authoritarian North Korea.
Both Russia’s Putin and
China’s Xi follow a hard line of diplomacy, the two countries had further
strengthened all-round cooperation in recent years in order to jointly deal
with the United States. To make Mongolia a friend of the United States through
economic cooperation and the promotion of democratic values is to embed a wedge
into the two superpowers in the region. Though it is impossible to tilt
Mongolia completely to the Western Camp in the near future, such as bring
it into the US-Japan-South Korea alliance or station troops directly on its
territory, the closer US-Mongolia ties will still arouse the scruples and
vigilance of China and Russia, force them to adjust their foreign and military
policies.
Mongolia's importance is also
reflected in its rich mineral resources, especially rare mineral resources.
Mining is dominant to the national economy of Mongolia, the country is one of
the 29 resource-rich developing countries identified by the International
Monetary Fund.[7]Coal, copper, rare earth and gold are the principal
reserves in Mongolia. Take rare earth as an example, according to a 2009 survey
by US government geologists, there are 31 million tons of rare earth resources
in Mongolia, which is equal to 16.8% of known reserves worldwide and makes
Mongolia the second-biggest source globally after China.[8] Rare earth is important strategic resources for both
civilian and military use. For decades, 70 to 80% of rare earth consumed in the
United States come from China. In the context of long-term competition between
China and the US, it is crucial for the US to find alternative sources of
minerals, particularly on scarce resource. As a resource-rich, low-cost
country, Mongolia is just the place to meet the needs, despite the risk of
transporting through a third country, such as China or Russia's possible
retaliatory regulations.
As the world's two largest
landlocked countries, both Mongolia and Kazakhstan are located in the heart of
Asia, where the US has a relatively weak strategical existence. As the leader
of the former Soviet Communist Party, Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev had ruled
the country for nearly 30 years. His resignation this year marked the beginning
of a gradual transfer of power. Although Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the current
President of the country, will continue to pursue a balanced strategy to
diplomacy, he will be more flexible and pragmatic than Nazarbayev. This brings
a good opportunity for the US to gradually break the monopoly of China and
Russia in Kazakhstan. A genuine partnership with Mongolia and Kazakhstan will
help the US to create a trans-continental strategic belt of Japan-South
Korea-Mongolia-Kazakhstan-Turkey-Europe, greatly increase the geopolitical
influence of the US in Eurasia, especially in Central Asia. Meanwhile, the
strategic belt goes deep into Siberia and China's interior, which will form a significant
containment on the two countries.
Rome wasn’t built in a day.
Definitely, it will take quite a long time to establish the strong geopolitical
friendship with Mongolia because of the interference of China and Russia, as
well as some unexpected domestic or international variates. All these factors
are testing the patience and flexibility of American policymakers.
August, 2019, edited in November 2019
(Mr. Gang Yin is the
researcher of Wei Jingsheng Foundation and graduate student of the Institute of
World Politics in Washington DC)
*
[1] “Sino-Mongolia
Relations”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China,
May 2019
[2] “U.S.-Mongolia
Trade Facts”, Office of the United States Trade Representative. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/mongolia
[3] “Montsame
News Statistics”, Foreign Service Office of Montsame News Agency, 2006. p.
55
[4] “Mongolia's
'Third Neighbor' Foreign Policy”, Asia Society. https://asiasociety.org/korea/mongolias-third-neighbor-foreign-policy
[5] Bolor
Lkhaajav, “Mongolia's Third Neighbor Policy Blooms”, The Diplomat, March
28, 2016,
[6] Bolor
Lkhaajav, “US Becomes Mongolia’s 5th Strategic Partner”, The
Deplomat, August 05, 2019,
[7] “Macroeconomic
Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries”, International
Monetary Fund, August 2012
[8] “Plentiful
potential: The country is home to major deposits of rare-earth minerals”,
Oxford Business Group, https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/analysis/plentiful-potential-country-home-major-deposits-rare-earth-minerals