Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1267-W883

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1267-W883

Release Date: Dec. 3, 2019

发布日：2019年12月3日

Topic: The Fate of History -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：历史的宿命 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The Fate of History

-- Wei Jingsheng

Recently, I took a break and reviewed the history of the Ming Dynasty. Unexpectedly, I discovered how much Chongzhen (the last emperor of the Ming Dynasty who hung himself as the peasant rebellion army entered the Capital Beijing) looked like the current Xi Jinping? The Ming Dynasty perished in the hands of Chongzhen, that ambitious emperor. Now Xi Jinping is also an ambitious emperor without much ability. The Ming Dynasty had many opportunities to coexist peacefully with rivals outside the borders, and refused to make peace even when the other parties asked. It kept seeking to be beaten up, until there was no return. Xi Jinping has acted just as the twin of Emperor Chongzhen.

Why? Scholars of all ages have surmised many reasons, and they are all very reasonable. To sum up, there are mainly the following three points. First, the top leadership only knew the plots and tricks of power struggles, instead of how to govern the country. Second, the entire ruling class was intoxicated by self-braggadocio and portrayed reality with arrogant psychology, and was unable to deal with actualities, instead blaming others for the crisis. Third, the officials only cared about themselves, with their fame and fortune being more important than the prosperity and security of their country. So that country would only perish.

In the previous a few years, there had been many people pinning their hopes on Xi Jinping and thinking of him as a smart and capable leader. Emperor Chongzhen also accidentally became the emperor, and he vigorously and speedily cleared the eunuch dictatorship and thus was considered as a wise and promising leader that would bring prosperity. However, besides internal fighting and being capable of power manipulations, his ability to govern the country and engage in diplomacy was a disaster. He was wrong on every major decision. Kind-hearted people made excuses for him saying they were mistakes due to wrong judgments.

Xi Jinping's performance in these years is simply a replica of Emperor Chongzhen. Apart from eliminating dissidents and concentrating power in the name of anti-corruption, he has not earned credits in either domestic affairs or foreign diplomacy. Emperor Chongzhen was unwilling to negotiate when negotiation was possible, and thus caused enemies to attack aggressively and the people of the country to suffer heavy losses. Xi Jinping also resolutely refrained from negotiating when peace talks were possible, and waited until miserably beaten during the Sino-USA trade war. To the end, it was the common Chinese who suffered. Eventually, the whole country was destroyed.

One important reason restraining Emperor Chongzhen from peace talks was due to the arrogance of the entire ruling class. This arrogance made the emperor, who did not want to take responsibility, hesitate. Now we see such a similarity of today's bureaucrats and intellectual upper classes in China to those of the Ming Dynasty. So-called patriotism, marked with arrogance, is standing right behind the backs of Xi Jinping and Liu He, so they cannot retreat even a half step back. Otherwise they would be named as traitors without places to be buried. That is called "one lifts the stones that hit one's own foot."

Our ancients more than 2,000 years ago already knew that a necessary or even prerequisite for the demise of the country is when the literati lack moral resolve. At the end of the Ming Dynasty, the bureaucratic and intellectual class was full of talent, yet it was impossible to convince people to work for the country. There were so-called "plenty of talents for internal fights, with no capacity to fight outside." Is it true that there was really no talent? No. The reversed selection system and political environment made excellent talent not only useless, but also difficult to survive.

Xi Jinping's political prisons are so similar to that of the Chongzhen's emperor's prison, which just like made by two brothers. In such an environment, take no action will let one free from harm. Those patriots who were devoted and loyal to the emperor were almost certain to end badly. With this kind of atmosphere spreading among the officials, it would be nonsense if the dynasty did not die.

The people were forced to rebel by the officials who opposed them. The officials only thought of suppression by force. The result was the problems were never truly solved. After the death of Dashing King Gao, there came the Dashing King Li, who became even more successful, to the degree of taking over the home of the emperor. Emperor Chongzhen ended up dying without a place to be buried. Examining Xi Jinping's response to the protests of the people of Hong Kong, it is simply following the train of thought of Emperor Chongzhen. Will the results be different then?

Regardless of whether President Trump is a wise leader or a great emperor or not, China is not a capable opponent to the United States in this trade war. This is just like the Chinese army was not a capable opponent of the Qing Army at the end of Ming Dynasty. All the officials at that time and scholars of the later generations thought that peace was the only way for the Ming Dynasty to survive. There was no chance of success when it was fighting battles on both fronts, as the continuous attacks of the Qing army indeed protected the uprising peasant army from being destroyed.

As a minority, why did the Qing Army stabilize its rule soon after it occupied China? How was the incompetent bureaucratic class of the Ming Dynasty able to serve the foreign rulers well? Why did these ordinary Chinese who were constantly rebelling, live under foreign rule peacefully? There were always scholars who do not understand this.

Looking at the present when the people of Hong Kong would prefer British colonial rule rather than the Communist regime in China, everyone should understand the reason. To take the lesser of the two evils, is not this the same principle followed as the Ming dynasty changed to the Qing dynasties?!

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-12032019113238.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS191202onFateofHistory.mp3

(Written and recorded on Dec. 2, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on Dec. 3, 2019.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1267-W883

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1267-W883

Release Date: Dec. 3, 2019

发布日：2019年12月3日

Topic: The Fate of History -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：历史的宿命 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-12/WeiJS191203onFateofHistoryA1267-W883.htm

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历史的宿命

-- 魏京生

最近作为休息，偶然回顾了一下明史。意外地发现怎么崇祯皇帝和现在的习近平这么像呢？明朝灭在一个野心勃勃的皇帝手里，现在的习近平也是个志大才疏的皇帝。明朝有很多次机会和关外的劲敌和平共处，甚至对方求和也和不成，只能不断找打，被打得落花流水。小习简直就是崇祯皇帝的双胞胎。

为什么呢？历代学者们总结了很多原因，也都很有道理。总结起来不外乎以下三点。第一，最高领导层都是只懂得权斗阴谋诡计，不懂得治国安邦。第二，整个统治阶级都被自我吹嘘所陶醉，以自大狂的心理描绘现实，处理危机就左支右绌，动辄得咎。第三，做官只为稻粱谋，自己的名利地位比国家兴亡更重要。于是国家只能灭亡。

前几年很多人还对习近平寄托着希望，觉得他是个精明强干的领袖。崇祯皇帝也是意外当上了皇帝，很快就雷厉风行地清除了宦官专政，被当作聪明有为的中兴之主。但除了内斗内行，擅长权谋之术外，之后治理国家、从事外交那就真的是一塌糊涂。每一次重大决策都错。好心人为他解脱说那是判断失误。

小习这些年的表现简直就是崇祯皇帝的翻版。除了假借反腐败之名铲除异己，集中权势之外，内政外交都乏善可陈。崇祯皇帝在可以和谈的时候不愿意和谈，招致敌人大肆进攻，国家人民损失惨重。小习也是在可以和谈的时候坚决不谈，等到贸易战达到惨不忍睹的时候，吃亏受苦的是老百姓。最终国破家亡。

崇祯不敢和谈的一个重要原因，就是整个统治阶级的自大狂心理，让不敢负责任的皇帝犹豫不决。中国的上层官僚和知识分子们，和明朝的同类们何其相似。以自大狂为标志的所谓爱国主义，顶在了习近平和刘鹤的后腰上，让他们不能后退半步，否则就是卖国贼死无葬身之地。这才叫搬起石头砸了自己的脚。

两千多年前的古人就懂得，文人无行是国家灭亡的必备条件，甚至是先决条件。明末的文人官僚阶级，内斗人才济济，办事却找不到人。所谓内斗内行，外斗外行。真的没有人才吗？不是。逆淘汰的制度和环境，让优秀人才不但无用武之地，而且性命难保。

习近平的政治监狱，和崇祯皇帝的诏狱，几乎就是亲兄弟一样相似。在这样的环境下，不干事就不会招致祸害。全力以赴、忠君爱国的，几乎就没有好下场。这样的官场风气，不灭亡就没有天理了。

人民被官逼民反了，不去解决人民的问题，只想着武力镇压。结果是按下葫芦浮起瓢，死了高闯王，还有李闯王，而且越闯越有料，直取了皇帝的老窝。皇帝落了个死无葬身之地。小习对付香港人民的抗议，简直就是崇祯皇帝的思路。结果会有什么不同吗？

不管川普总统是不是英明领袖、伟大帝王，贸易战中国不是美国的对手，就像明朝末年不是清军的对手一样。当年的朝臣和后世的学者都认为，讲和是明朝苟延残喘的唯一道路。两面作战没有胜算，清国军队的不断攻击，也确实起到了保护农民军不被消灭的作用。

清军作为少数民族，占领中国后为什么能够很快就稳定了统治呢？在明朝无能的官僚阶层，怎么就能很好的为外族统治者服务呢？不断造反的老百姓，怎么就能在外族统治下老老实实过日子呢？历代都有学者想不通。

看看香港人民宁可要英国的殖民统治，也不要共产党中国的统治，大家应该明白这其中的道理了吧。两害相权取其轻，和明清改朝换代的道理不是一样的吗？！

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-12032019113238.html