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Merry Christmas! 祝大家圣诞快乐！

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1272-W888

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1272-W888

Release Date: Dec. 24, 2019

发布日：2019年12月24日

Topic: Year-end Summary for 2019 -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：年终盘点2019 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:

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Year-end Summary for 2019

-- Wei Jingsheng

2019 is about to pass. After Christmas there is the New Year and then the Chinese New Year. Here I would like to pay tribute to my listeners for a happy new year, and then I am going to summarize the major events of this past year with you and to make a prediction for a lucky next year.

This year can be said to have had a constant dizzying of big events that not only caused sensation in the world, but also affected the world. And they were also closely related to the fate of our Chinese people. Events in South America and the Middle East are relatively far away from us, and I think our listeners are not as concerned. This is due to human nature - people are concerned most about things that are related to their own interests. This is true for the Chinese, and also for the Americans.

Therefore, the American society is particularly concerned about the Sino-US trade issue, and we can understand the feeling of the American people. The huge US-China trade deficit over the years gradually has made ordinary people also realize the harm caused by unfair trade. This is the cause of the trade war. The trade war was delayed and continued repeatedly, and gradually increased. That is because the Xi Jinping regime still fantasizes about maintaining injustice, and the US government does not want to fight the trade war too fiercely. Therefore, Xi Jinping was let go again and again, until the current situation.

Recently it was said that an agreement somewhere in the middle is about to be signed. The Chinese government responded hesitantly, without a direct answer. Most of the US public opinion is not optimistic either. They all believe that Xi Jinping will continue his delay tactics, and will not implement the agreement even after it is signed. Then the trade war will continue to escalate, while relations between the two countries will continue to deteriorate, and the world economy will be affected to varying degrees.

Who will be most motivated to continue this trade war? The one most unwilling to compromise is the Beijing regime. Who will lose the most when the fight continues? Of course China has to suffer the most. The US economy is still on the rise while China's economic downturn is very serious. If you think about it a little bit, you know who is weak and who is strong, and who will lose and who will win. Xi Jinping and Liu He only had the power to parry and could not fight back.

So why is China unwilling to compromise? This is because compromise will result in the loss of the excess profits of the corrupt officials. However loss from uncompromising would be even greater, and what is lost would be the interests of all the Chinese people throughout the country; that is, all the Chinese would pay for the bureaucratic capitalists in China. If you look at China not buying American agricultural products and the Chinese who could not afford the price of pork, then you will understand the tricks hidden in this compromise or not issue.

While the trade war was snarling, Xi Jinping also started to realized his vision for Hong Kong. Hong Kong still practices its rule of law from the British colonial time without implementing the one-party dictatorship of the Communist Party. This upsets the hardliner Communists, who are used to being lawless. It would be inconvenient for them to catch their political opponents in Hong Kong. It would be inconvenient for them to catch the people who practice freedom of expression in Hong Kong, and even it would also be inconvenient for them to rob people financially in Hong Kong. All the inconveniences made these hardliners unhappy, and determined to make changes in Hong Kong to fit their taste.

But the Hong Kong people who have become accustomed to living under freedom and the rule of law have found any such change intolerable. One stone provoked thousands of waves. Super-scale protests lasted for more than half a year, and super-repression in response also lasted for more than half a year. This time, the young people in Hong Kong were not under the control of others, and they showed super courage and tenacity because they have been forced to the corner, and there is no way back. Either they must strive to keep the original legal system and freedom, or adapt to the lawlessness of the one-party dictatorship like the mainland people have to suffer. These youths chose to fight and showed the world the bravery and tenacity of the Chinese people.

The sacrifice of the people of Hong Kong has moved the world. On behalf of world public opinion, the U.S. Congress exerted substantive pressure on Xi Jinping, forcing Xi Jinping to give up further adventure and to make small compromises with the people of Hong Kong. As a result, the people of Hong Kong won a great victory with nearly 90% of the seats in the district board elections, as a way to express their rejection of the one-party dictatorship.

These two major events not only caused a sensation in the world, but also had a profound impact on the future destiny of China. They will also have a profound impact on China-US relations and the world economic and political structure. The bureaucratic capitalists in China should also rethink whether to choose to break the net with dead fish inside, or change the course for a realistic path by making compromises with the Chinese people and the international community.

We will continue to make further analysis with you.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-12242019144331.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS191224on2019.mp3

(Written on Dec. 23 and recorded on Dec. 24, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on Dec. 24, 2019.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1272-W888

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1272-W888

Release Date: Dec. 24, 2019

发布日：2019年12月24日

Topic: Year-end Summary for 2019 -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：年终盘点2019 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2019/report2019-12/WeiJS191224on2019A1272-W888.htm

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年终盘点2019

-- 魏京生

2019年马上就要过去了。圣诞节之后是新年，然后是春节。在这儿先给听众朋友们拜个早年，然后和大家一起盘点一下这一年来的大事，好为来年大吉做一个预测。

这一年可以说是大事不断，目不暇接。这不但轰动了世界，而且影响了世界，与我们中国人的命运也是息息相关。南美、中东离我们稍微远了点儿，估计听众朋友们不是那么关心。人之常情，最关心的还是和自己切身利害相关的事情。中国人如此，美国人也如此。

所以美国社会特别关心中美贸易问题，我们也就可以理解美国老百姓的心情了。连年巨额的贸易逆差，逐渐使普通老百姓也认识到不公平的贸易所带来的危害。这就是贸易战的起因。贸易战打打停停，逐渐加码。那是因为习近平政权还幻想继续维持不公平，而美国政府又不想把贸易战打得太惨烈，所以一次又一次放了习近平一马，形成了现在的局面。

最近听说要签署一个半吊子协议了。中国政府羞羞答答，顾左右而言它；美国舆论大部分也不看好，都认为习近平会继续拖延战术，即使签了也不会执行。那么贸易战就只会继续升级，两国关系会继续恶化，世界经济也会受到不同程度的牵连。

继续打贸易战，谁的动机最强呢？最不愿意妥协的是北京政府。继续打下去，谁的损失最大呢？当然是中国的损失最大。美国的经济还在上升期；而中国的经济下滑十分严重。稍微想想就知道谁弱谁强，谁输谁赢。习近平和刘鹤只有招架之力，没有还手之功。

那为什么反倒是中国方面不愿意妥协呢？这是因为妥协了，损失的是贪官污吏的超额利润。不妥协虽然损失更大，但那损失的是全国人民的利益，也就是会让全国人民替官僚资产阶级买单。你看看不买美国农产品，猪肉涨价谁在买单，就明白这其中的猫腻了。

正在贸易战打得黏黏呼呼的时候，习近平又在香港实现他的理想了。香港仍然实行英国殖民者的法制，没有实行共产党的一党专政。这让无法无天习惯了的党棍们心中不爽。到香港去抓自己的政敌不方便，到香港去抓言论自由的老百姓不方便，甚至到香港去割韭菜也不方便，这让党棍们十分不爽，必欲改之而后快。

可这一改，就让已经习惯了自由和法制下生活的香港老百姓忍无可忍了。一石激起千层浪，超大规模的抗议示威持续了半年多，超级镇压也持续了半年多，就是压不下去。这一次香港的年轻人不受别人的操控，表现出了超级的勇气和坚韧精神。因为他们已经被逼到了墙角，退无可退。要么争取到原有的法制和自由，要么和大陆人民一样去适应一党专政的无法无天。他们选择了抗争，向全世界展示了中国人的勇敢和坚韧。

香港人民的牺牲精神感动了全世界。美国议会代表世界舆论向习近平施加了有实质内容的压力，迫使习近平没有进一步冒险，向香港人民做出了一小步的妥协。结果香港人民在区议会选举中大获全胜，用将近百分之九十的席位表达了他们对一党专政的拒绝。

这两件大事不但轰动了世界，而且对中国将来的命运产生了深远的影响；对中美关系和世界经济政治格局，也会带来深远的影响。中国的官僚资产阶级们也应该重新思考，是选择鱼死网破，还是改弦更张，走一条现实主义的道路，向老百姓和国际社会作出妥协。

我们还将继续和大家一起作出进一步的分析。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-12242019144331.html