Happy New Year of 2020

Happy New Year of 2020! 祝大家2020新年如意！

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1273-W889

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1273-W889

Release Date: Jan. 1, 2020

发布日：2020年1月1日

Topic: Looking Ahead to 2020 -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：年前盘点2020 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Looking Ahead to 2020

-- Wei Jingsheng

Previously I wrote a summary before the end of 2019, yet the topic was not quite finished. Many friends want to know if what had happened in recent years indicates what will happen in the future. I am not a prophet and cannot predict something with certainty. I just want to compare similar things that happened in history to help us to think.

There are many kings and emperors in history who were the last of their dynasties or kingdoms. Although their deeds were different, they also had a lot in common. They loved to do big things in the face of reality, at the expense of the people and not caring for the people seriously. In the end, the officials forced the people to rebel and created a great turmoil.

Some scholars have learned a fallacy, claiming that most people do not want to rebel. It seems that these modern intellectuals do not read books. What books say most people want to rebel? There have always been a very few who dared to rebel, and most of them were not peasants. When the peasants dared to rebel, the results had already become clear.

Some netizens refuted me: Xi Jinping is not Emperor Guangxu (of the Qing Dynasty), but Emperor SuiYang (of the Sui Dynasty), Yang Guang. I think it makes sense. Emperor SuiYang was particularly vain. He wrapped the tree trunks with brocade to show off to foreigners. However, Xi Jinping's vanity made him to throw money all over the world, more than the small tricks of wrapping trees with brocade. There are still many people in China who are poor, who do not have enough to eat, who could not afford medical care, who could not afford to go to school, and who could not afford to get married. Yet, Xi Jinping spread so much money all over in Asia, Africa and Latin America, far surpassing what Emperor Suiyang did.

In other aspects, Xi Jinping is also a master of spending that left Emperor SuiYang far behind. Emperor SuiYang built a grand canal that exhausted the people to the degree that it is said the canal was the reason that people rebelled. Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative goes much farther beyond the Grand Canal, not only because the amount of money spent is much more, but also the boldness far surpasses that of Emperor SuiYang, Yang Guang. Yang Guang's Grand Canal was built inside China, so future generations still enjoy the benefits of transportation. Xi Jinping has not only spread money to his little brothers in the third-world, but even has done so in the developed countries. This shameless affront is really not something that Emperor SuiYang could learn. Indeed, Xi is a worthy successor to communism.

The socialist planned economy of Stalin and Mao Zedong is a universally recognized failure. Let's not talk about the nature of feudal serfdom; just that its economic efficiency is far worse than that of the traditional market economy of China, let alone the modern market economy in Europe and America. Deng Xiaoping and his generation learned a halfway market economy which has come to an end, so the level of economic growth in China is gradually decreasing.

However, no one dares to say that political superstructures hinder economic development in China, and only dare to talk about some nonsense. Xi Jinping, however, has the boldness to attempt to return to Mao Zedong's feudal serfdom in a way that "advances the country at the expense of the people". Of course, he feels that he is a genius and has invented a new style of emperor system, and he could solve everything by making a single order. This self-confidence can only be matched by the talented Emperor SuiYang.

However, Emperor SuiYang was indeed gifted, with excellent capacity in literature and military strategy. Comrade Xi is not well educated and relied on his secretaries to show off his book reading list, which was embarrassingly ridiculed by the netizens.

Regarding military strategy, Xi Jinping is even worse. Besides transferring the army back and forward to prevent a coup, it is hard to tell his capacity to strengthen the national defense. He does seem to have enough experience to vigorously build an armed police to suppress the common people and to cooperate with the underworld to suppress opposition, with a degree of disgust definitely surpassing more than that of Emperor SuiYang, who did care about his own face.

Many netizens like to say that comparing these Internet police working for the Communist regime to pigs and dogs is an insult to real pigs and dogs. Comparing Xi Jinping with Emperor SuiYang is indeed a mistreatment of Emperor SuiYang. Emperor SuiYang did a good job in agricultural production, and the accumulated grain was enough for the Tang Dynasty (that succeeded the Sui Dynasty in 618) to eat for several years. But Xi Jinping made the common Chinese to not have pork to eat because of his trade war with the USA, and then used the soaring consumer prices to show that the economy is still growing. This mindset can be compared with the tyrant's ministers to see who is a better liar!

It seems that the eyesight of the Chinese people is clear. Netizens say that Xi Jinping behaves like Emperor SuiYang, and there is really some comparability. Emperor SuiYang had the richest and most powerful empire in the world, yet his officials forced the people to rebel and even forced other officials to rebel. In the end, he was hanged by his relatives and friends, without a proper place to be buried. He caused the destruction of the country and also ruined all the people. What will be the end of Xi Jinping? I am willing to wait and see with my audience and netizen friends.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-12252019102854.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2019/WeiJS191224on2020.mp3

(Written on Dec. 23 and recorded on Dec. 24, 2019. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on Jan. 1, 2020.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1273-W889

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1273-W889

Release Date: Jan. 1, 2020

发布日：2020年1月1日

Topic: Looking Ahead to 2020 -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：年前盘点2020 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2020/report2020-01/WeiJS200101on2020A1273-W889.htm

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年前盘点2020

-- 魏京生

年前我们盘点了一次，言犹未尽。很多朋友想知道，最近几年的事情，预示着今后会有什么事情发生。我不是预言家，不去算定什么，只是拿历史上发生过的类似事情来比对，帮助我们思考而已。

历史上的亡国之君很多，事迹却各有不同，但也有很多共通之处。那就是好大喜功，不惜民力，不拿老百姓当回事，官逼民反制造出大动乱。

有些老学究不知道从哪儿学来的谬论，说是大多数老百姓不想造反。看来现代知识分子的特点就是不读书，哪本书上说什么时候大多数人想造反了。敢造反的永远都是极少数，而且大多都不是什么农民。等到农民都敢造反，结果基本就明朗化了。

有网友反驳我说：最像习近平的不是光绪皇帝，是隋炀帝。我看挺有道理。隋炀帝特别虚荣，拿锦缎包裹树干，向外国人炫耀。咱们习总大撒币，哪里是锦缎包树那样的小儿科。中国的老百姓还有很多在受穷，吃不饱饭，看不起病，上不起学，结不起婚；可他为他的亚非拉兄弟大撒币，远远超过隋炀帝的水平。

在其它方面，咱们习总也是大手笔，让隋炀帝望尘莫及。隋炀帝修了个大运河，据说耗尽了民力，搞得民不聊生才造了反。咱们习总的一带一路可远远超过了大运河。不但钱财超过，那胆魄更是杨广难以望其项背。杨广的大运河还是修在国内，后代可以享受运输之利。小习把钱撒给他的第三世界小兄弟，还要修到发达国家去。这无耻的胆魄，确实不是隋炀帝可以学得来的。不愧是共产主义的接班人。

斯大林和毛泽东的社会主义计划经济，是举世公认的失败典型。咱不说他的封建农奴制的本质，就说经济效率也远远不如中国传统的市场经济，更不能和人家欧美的现代市场经济相比较。老邓和他那一代人学了个半调子市场经济，算算也走到了头，所以经济增长水平在逐渐下降。

大家不敢说政治上层建筑阻碍了经济发展，只敢东拉西扯说些个虚头八脑的废话。小习可是有魄力，以国进民退的方式，企图回到毛泽东的封建农奴制。当然，他觉得他是个天才，发明了新式的皇帝制度，就可以一声号令让所有的事情迎刃而解。这份自信，也只有大才子隋炀帝可以与之比肩。

可是人家隋炀帝还算是有才学，文韬武略都是一等。咱们小习同志文化不太行，只好让秘书帮着掉一掉书袋，还被网友嘲讽，搞得有点没面子。

武略就更上不得台面了。除了把军队调来调去防止政变，没看出来他有什么作为能加强国防。大力建设武装警察镇压老百姓，与黑社会合作镇压反对派，看来还是颇有心得。恶心程度绝对超过还知道要脸的隋炀帝。

很多网友喜欢说，把五毛比作猪狗，那是侮辱了猪狗。咱们的习总和隋炀帝比较，看来还是委屈了杨广同志。杨广同志农业生产干得好，积存的粮食够唐朝吃几年。小习为打贸易战让老百姓吃不上猪肉，然后用物价飞涨的数字说明经济还在增长。这心机倒可以和暴君的佞臣们比一比，看看现在世界上，到底谁骗谁？！

看来还是群众的眼睛是雪亮的，网友们说他像隋炀帝，果然还有些可比性。隋炀帝以世界最富有最强大的帝国，官逼民反且官逼官反，被自己的亲戚朋友绞死后还死无葬身之地。国破家亡还连累天下人。小习会有个什么下场呢？愿和网友听众朋友们拭目以待。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-12252019102854.html