Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1284-W900

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1284-W900

Release Date: March 4, 2020

发布日：2020年3月4日

Topic: People's Livelihood and Its Conflict with the Epidemic -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：民生与疫情的矛盾 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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People's Livelihood and Its Conflict with the Epidemic

-- Wei Jingsheng

Recently, the most frequently discussed issue by the media and friends is that Xi Jinping decided not to hold the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (in March) because he was worried that the concentration of personnel would cause the disease to spread to them. But why does he force the factories to resume work without worrying about the spread of the disease? Most people immediately think that Xi Jinping and the senior officials of the Chinese Communist regime are afraid of getting sick themselves, but they don't care about the average Chinese. This judgment is correct, but it is not the whole story.

The Chinese economy has been hit hard by the rapid spread of the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic. Perhaps the Chinese authorities' attention was focused on covering up the epidemic and accidentally let the National Bureau of Statistics tell a few truths. In January and February of 2020, industrial production dropped by more than 30%, and the business and service industries declined even more. Only the financial industry of speculations have not changed much.

In other words, the severe recession of the real economy is precisely the opportunity for the speculative industry to obtain more investment. Under the influence of the epidemic, the economic pattern that was seriously distorted has distorted even further to extremes, that is, it has entered a vicious circle. On the one hand, many Chinese companies are facing bankruptcy due to lack of workers and markets, thus their inability to repay loans. On the other hand, industrial and commercial activities have fallen sharply, and consumption will also fall sharply. The vicious circle of the two is a typical phenomenon of economic crisis.

Thus, the measures taken by the Communist regime are to force factories to resume work. It is claimed that 80% of state-owned enterprises have resumed work. But as usual, this number is very inflated. Local governments have well adopted traditional strategies with countermeasures against the policies set by the central government. There is no evidence but it can be estimated that this 80% resumption of work figure is double the reality. It is estimated the result would be good if the production in the first two quarters can maintain the level of January and February without falling.

But is the situation really as optimistic as scholars and officials in China estimate? I don't think so. The optimistic estimates have their basis, that is, the pneumonia epidemic will gradually cool down and even disappear. But is this based on reality? It seems that more people disbelieve it. The basis for disbelief is more realistic. The most pessimistic estimate is that it will erupt globally, not just in China.

There are several pieces of evidence here. The first evidence is that Wuhan pneumonia is contagious before it is in full bloom, and no one knows how many people with the virus have entered the communities. Responsible medical experts also think that the outbreak will happen for sure, and is only a matter of time. The second evidence is that China is once again covering up the epidemic on a large scale in order to resume work. However, the epidemic situation in other countries is developing rapidly. Why would China go the opposite direction?

Does China already have a way to identify hidden sources of infection, or does China already have special-effect medicines? I haven't heard of it. All I heard was shirk responsibility and cover up the facts. To fool the people by using big propodanda to go against the epidemic is indeed a characteristic of the Communist regime's publicity for decades. None of the existing facts can prove that the epidemic situation will be miraculously improved. Continuing to hide the truth from the people will only cause more serious consequences.

Experts have repeatedly warned that the resumption of work will result in the gathering of people therefore will lead to the expansion of the epidemic. In fact, there is a big loophole that has not been noticed by most people, which is about the vast rural areas in China. These areas have poor medical conditions, and there will be a large number of unnoticed infections developing as rapidly as in the cities. In terms of area, the rural population is more sparse than the city, but the living conditions in the countryside are as dense as in the cities. In addition, poor medical conditions make it more difficult to control the development of the epidemic. These two huge loopholes of resumption of work and rural areas in China, will ensure that the epidemic continues to develop on a large scale, if not more severely.

Analyzing from above: the epidemic prevention measures have been relaxed to ensure short-term economic benefits, which will for sure receive counterproductive results. The consequence of the uncontrolled epidemic is that the economy will continue to be hit harder. Many local governments in China resist the coercion of the central government and will focus on epidemic prevention rather than resuming work. In the long run, it may be wise.

However, these local officials may bet their official positions for doing so, just like the county chief (who against the top order evacuated his people) during the Tangshan earthquake. Is it more important to save hundreds of thousands of lives, or is it more important to keep their official positions? These local officials must make a choice this time.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03042020150908.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2020/WeiJS200303onResumingWork.mp3

(Written and recorded on March 3, 2020. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on March 4, 2020.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1284-W900

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1284-W900

Release Date: March 4, 2020

发布日：2020年3月4日

Topic: People's Livelihood and Its Conflict with the Epidemic -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：民生与疫情的矛盾 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2020/report2020-03/WeiJS200304onResumingWorkA1284-W900.htm

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民生与疫情的矛盾

-- 魏京生

最近被媒体和朋友问到的最多的问题，就是习近平决定不开大会了，因为担心人员集中会导致病情扩散到他们这些当官的。可是为什么强迫工厂复工，难道就不担心病情扩散了吗？多数人直接想到的就是：习近平和中共的高官害怕自己得病，但是不在乎老百姓。这种判断十分正确，但还不是事情的全部。

中国的经济由于武汉肺炎疫情的迅猛扩散，受到的打击十分严重。也许是当局的注意力集中在了掩盖疫情上，一不小心让国家统计局说了几句实话。今年一、二月份工业生产下降了百分之三十多，商业、服务业下降得更严重，只有投机行业金融业没有太大变化。

也就是说，实体经济严重衰退，正是投机行业获得更多投资的机会。本来已经严重扭曲的经济格局，在疫情的影响下，将扭曲走向了极端，也就是走向了恶性循环。一方面是很多中国企业由于缺少工人和市场，面临着无法偿还贷款而破产的困境。另一方面是工商业活动大幅度下降，消费也将大幅度下降。两者恶性循环，这就是经济危机的典型现象。

为此中共采取的措施，就是强迫工厂复工，据说国营企业有八成已经复工。但和往常一样，这个数字的水分也是非常大。各地方采取上有政策、下有对策的传统策略，早就炉火纯青了。没有证据但可以估计，这个八成复工至少有一半的水分。估计前两个季度的生产能保持一、二月份的水平不下降，就已经是不错了。

但是情况真的像学者和官员们估计的那么乐观吗？我看不是。乐观的估计有他们的依据，就是肺炎疫情会逐渐降温，甚至消失。但这个依据现实吗？好像更多的人不太相信。不相信的依据反而比较现实，最悲观的估计是会在全球爆发，不仅仅是中国。

这里边有几个证据。第一个证据是武汉肺炎具有不发病就传染的特点，现在没人知道到底有多少带病毒的人进入了社区。负责任的医学专家也认为：爆发只是时间问题，不是有无问题。第二个证据是中国为了复工，再一次大规模掩盖疫情。但是国外的疫情发展迅速，中国为什么就有相反的情况呢？

是中国已经有办法查明隐性的传染源，还是中国已经有了特效的药品呢？没听说，听说的只是推卸责任和掩盖事实。靠大忽悠的宣传就能对抗疾病，这倒是共产党宣传几十年来的特色。现有的事实都不能证明疫情会奇迹般的好转，继续掩盖真相忽悠百姓，只能造成更严重的后果。

专家们反复警告，复工造成人员聚集，会导致疫情的扩大。其实还有一个大漏洞，就是没有被大家注意的广大农村地区。那里医疗条件差，会有大量没被注意到的病情，在和城市一样迅猛地发展。从面积看，农村人口比城市稀疏，但农村的居住条件和城市一样密集。而且医疗条件差，更加难以控制疫情的发展。复工和农村这两个巨大的漏洞，将会保证疫情继续大规模发展，如果不是更严重。

如上分析：为了保证短期经济利益而放松了防疫措施，结果必然是适得其反。疫情得不到控制的后果，是经济会继续受到更大的打击。很多地方政府抵抗中央的强迫，把重点放在防疫而不是复工上面，从长远效果看倒不失为明智之举。

只是这些地方官员可能会以自己的乌纱帽做赌注，就像唐山大地震时的那位县长一样。是救几十万人命重要，还是自己的乌纱帽重要呢？不得不做一次选择了。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03042020150908.html