Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1301-W916

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1301-W916

Release Date: June 20, 2020

发布日：2020年6月20日

Topic: The Turning Point in Sino-US Relations -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中美关系的转折点 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The Turning Point in Sino-US Relations

-- Wei Jingsheng

Yesterday, June 17th, ushered in a new turning point in Sino-US relations. The change occurred at the Sino-US diplomatic talks held in Hawaii on the 16th and 17th. The Chinese side claimed that Yang Jiechi, a member of the Politburo and a State Councilor for Communist China, went to Hawaii to negotiate with Secretary Pompeo at the request of the USA. Yet, foreign media reported that this negotiation was initiated by China. From this difference in information, we could tell that it was China hoping to reduce the pressure and also hoping to fool the United States again and thus be able to get over its difficulties.

Why does the Communist regime think there might be a chance to get over its difficulties by fooling the USA? The first reason is that it seems that this time the United States has great determination. It is no longer a matter of talking about the adoption of some so-called resolutions without punitive measures, or, as a slang word used in the US Congress, a condemnation without teeth. The current condemnation is accompanied with very severe punishment measures, namely the abolition of special treatment in Hong Kong. This affects not only the major capacity of the Chinese Communist regime to absorb international investment, but also the safety of Chinese bureaucratic capital. This is unacceptable to most bureaucrats in China except Xi Jinping.

According to normal custom in China, this kind of diplomacy that requires bowing down one’s head and being soft should be done by a person like Li Hongzhang (diplomat & politician of the late Qing Dynasty) who knew how to compromise and could bear the very important burdens. How could China send Yang Jiechi, the originator of the War Wolf Diplomacy? Isn't this intentionally designed to fail? It seems that in the competitive game of the highest decision-making level of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the Xi Jinping faction still prevails. The diplomatic system in China is now controlled by the War Wolf faction, which also has a strong reason to continue this War Wolf Diplomacy.

This reason, which seems strong to the Chinese Communist regime, is the achievement of its United Front for many years: the weak posture of the pro-democratic leaders in Hong Kong. The pro-democratic leaders of Hong Kong have opposed the punishment with teeth proposed by the United States, which has greatly enhanced the confidence of the Communist war wolves and reduced the confidence of the pragmatists. It also caused many centrist politicians to shut up: when you are not even willing to fight, why should we care about you?

The weak posture of Hong Kong also greatly influences the determination of the West. It is well known that Western political, business and academic circles have been seriously infiltrated by the Chinese Communist regime. Under the pressure of almost unanimous public opinion in the West, these panda huggers have rarely spoken out to help the Chinese Communist regime, to avoid affecting their own personal interests. At this time, which kind of effect will result from some Chinese opposition and Hong Kong opposition coming out and actively cooperating with the Communist strategy opposing the US sanctions? The result is self-evident.

This already happened in 1999. In the battle over whether to grant the Chinese Communist regime PNTR status (i.e. permanent Most Favored Nation status) and to join the World Trade Organization, a group of people from the overseas Chinese democracy movement as well as democrats of Hong Kong and Taiwan actively supported the Chinese Communist regime. This prompted many American politicians to vote for the Chinese Communist regime, a move the United States regrets now but already too late. It also made the Chinese people continue to be exploited and oppressed for more than 20 years. The Chinese Communist regime that received this blood transfusion then is today qualified to carry out this War Wolf Diplomacy and further increase the oppression and exploitation of the Chinese people.

Two of the three United Front forces that cooperated with the Communist regime then are gone now. Taiwan, which is already democratic, and the overseas Chinese democracy groups which were deceived and abandoned by the Communist regime, have embarked on a position to cooperate with the United States against the Communist regime. The weak opposition in Hong Kong alone is no longer enough to shake the positions of the United States and Western countries. Moreover, the people of Western countries have also awakened, and for their own rights and interests they can no longer tolerate the illegal behavior of the Communist regime.

Right at the moment when the Hawaii meeting ended, the alliance of the West issued a G7 Foreign Ministers’ statement, condemning the Chinese Communist regime’s forceful push of the national security law in Hong Kong. Originally, Japan, Germany, and France had traditionally reserved for themselves the opportunity to betray the Western alliance, and were reluctant to participate in the condemnation statement. However, the uncompromising strength of the War Wolf Diplomacy from China forced Japan to put away its strategy of hesitation with feet on both sides and actively participate in the joint declaration of the alliance. After all, when the people are awakened, the votes of democratic countries are more powerful than the money of capitalists.

As a countermeasure, the Chinese Communist regime quickly pushed the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law to its puppet People's Congress for discussion. If compromises are made after the failed negotiations in an effort to fool everybody, Xi Jinping will have no place to put his own face. The gesture is still in line with the dictator face of Xi. But the price of this face will be an even worse economy for China. If this National Security Law is implemented in Hong Kong, it will also endanger the security of many corrupt Chinese officials and profiteers. This will inevitably cause the Communist regime to fall apart further, as well as to give ammunition to the anti-communist politics in the West.

It seems even though the Communist regime tried to instigate African Americans to go to the streets to smash and rob in the USA, it cannot deflect the general current of anti-communism in the West.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-06192020113048.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2020/WeiJS200618onChinaUSturningpoint.mp3

(Written and recorded on June 18, 2020. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on June 19, 2020.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1301-W916

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1301-W916

Release Date: June 20, 2020

发布日：2020年6月20日

Topic: The Turning Point in Sino-US Relations -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：中美关系的转折点 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2020/report2020-06/WeiJS200620onChinaUSturningpointA1301-W916.htm

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中美关系的转折点

-- 魏京生

六月十七号，迎来了中美关系一个新的转折点。这就是十六、十七号在美国夏威夷举行的中美外交谈判。中方的说法是：政治局委员兼国务委员杨洁篪应约前往夏威夷谈判。外媒则报道，是中方提议开始的这次谈判。从这个信息差别，可以知道是中方希望减轻压力，希望能再一次忽悠美国，蒙混过关。

为什么共产党认为有机会蒙混过关呢？首先一条，就是看上去这次美国的决心很大，不再是嘴上说说通过一些没有惩罚措施的所谓决议，也就是美国议会俚语所说的没有牙齿的谴责。这次的谴责附带着非常严厉的惩罚措施，就是取消香港的特殊待遇。这不仅影响到中共吸收国际投资的大部分能力，也影响到中国官僚资本的安全。这是除了习近平集团之外的大部分官僚们无法接受的。

按照正常规律，这种需要低头服软的外交，应该是李鸿章那样懂得妥协，可以忍辱负重的大臣担纲。怎么派了个战狼外交鼻祖的杨洁篪呢？这不是故意要把事情搞砸吗？看来中共最高决策层的博弈中，习近平这派还是占了上风。外交系统已经被战狼派控制，而且有很强的理由继续战狼外交。

这个在中共看来很强的理由，就是多年统战的成就，香港泛民主派领袖们的软弱姿态。香港泛民领袖们纷纷反对美国的有牙齿的惩罚，大大提高了中共战狼派的信心，打击了务实派的信心，并且使得很多中间派政治家闭嘴：你们自己都不愿意争取，我们何必管闲事呢？

这种软弱姿态也很大程度上影响西方的决心。众所周知西方政商学界被中共渗透很严重。在西方民众几乎舆论一致的压力下，这些熊猫牌最近很少出手帮中共说话了，否则影响他们的个人利益。这时候如果出来一些中国反对派和香港反对派，积极配合中共的策略，反对美国的制裁，效果如何呢？可谓不言自明。

这种情况在1999年就发生过。在是否给予中共永久最惠国待遇和加入世界贸易组织的斗争中，中国海外民运中的一批人，和香港台湾的民主派都积极支持中共。这促使很多美国政治家投了中共一票，使现在的美国悔之晚矣。也使中国人民二十多年来继续被剥削、被压迫，直到被输血的中共今天有资格开展战狼外交，并加重了对中国人民的压迫和剥削。

当年配合中共的三支统战力量，现在却少了两支。已经民主的台湾，和被中共欺骗、抛弃的民运招安派，已经走上了配合美国反对中共的立场。仅仅靠香港软弱的反对派，已经不足以动摇美国和西方国家的立场。况且西方国家的人民也已觉醒，为了自己的权利和利益，也不再能容忍共产党的非法行为。

就在夏威夷会议结束的那一刻，西方联盟就发表了七国共同声明，谴责中共在香港强推港版国安法。本来日本、德国和法国，按照传统给自己保留出卖西方联盟的机会，不愿意参加谴责声明。但战狼外交的强势不妥协，迫使日本不得不收起首鼠两端的策略，积极参加到联盟的共同声明中来。当人民都觉醒之后，毕竟民主国家的选票比资本家的金钱更有力量。

作为对应措施，中共也迅速把港版国安法推向伪人民代表大会讨论。如果在大忽悠谈判失败后再做出妥协，习近平的脸就没地方搁了。做一做姿态还是符合习近平独裁者的面子。但是这个面子的代价，将是给中国经济雪上加霜。如果在香港实行了港版国安法，也危及到一批贪官污吏和奸商们的安全。这必将引起共产党进一步的分崩离析，但也同时给予西方反共政治添砖加瓦。

看来，煽动美国黑人上街打砸抢，无法转移西方反共的大潮流。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-06192020113048.html