Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1316-W931

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1316-W931

Release Date: August 17, 2020

发布日：2020年8月17日

Topic: Summer in Beidaihe -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：北戴河的夏天 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Summer in Beidaihe

-- Wei Jingsheng

Beidaihe is a good place to escape the heat in summer. Since the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) took over power, this place has been monopolized by the CCP's senior officials and has become a meeting place for the highest decision-makers to decide national affairs. Just like during Stalin’s overnight dinners, national affairs are decided before the formal assembly., while the official conference is just pretending to be a show of hands to vote. The CCP has inherited Stalin's mantle, including this strange form of pseudo-democracy.

This year's Beidaihe Conference has not yet ended, and there have been discussions in the self-sponsored media overseas. Because there are too many major events this year, the Communist regime is faltering. These senior CCP leaders who are not men with courage need to make a decision at this Beidaihe conference. What to be decided? It is to determine the fate of Xi Jinping and the CCP.

I said more than three months ago: If the Chinese Communist Party does not stop Xi Jinping’s perverse actions, it will only perish and bring the country to collapse and push the Chinese people into dire straits. The opportunity to stop Xi Jinping's perversity is this year's Beidaihe Conference. If it is true that no one there is a man with courage, then the Beidaihe conference will be calm, and then everyone just needs to wait for their deaths without a place to be buried.

The conference has been going on for half a month, which is evidence that there are still people who are unwilling to accept the collapse of the Communist regime and unable to find a place to bury themselves. The resistance was fierce, and it is not known who will be defeated. But judging from the news that has come out, there were at least three factions that were diametrically opposed. The first faction is the hardliners, who advocate hot wars and nuclear weapons. It seems that they are dissatisfied with Xi Jinping's compromise with the United States, and they also demand substitutions. Another faction is the centrist, advocating something called “three hard ways and three soft ways”, by continuing to hide one’s power while hiding one’s sword for the outside world, and suppressing internal disagreement until the US Presidential Election. The last faction seems to have had little to say, although it advocates reforms in order to conform to the trend of times; it was only manifested in Premier Li Keqiang's boring actions against Xi Jinping.

The result of the game in between these three factions is just as I said three months ago: It could be follow the Hua Guofeng model where Xi Jinping takes the initiative to step down, to restart reform and opening up again, and continue the strategy of keeping a low profile with sword hidden. But will the Americans and Chinese people continue to be fooled? Not reliable. Moreover, the Beidaihe Conference has not ended after half a month, which shows that Xi Jinping does not accept this model. The senior CCP officials may not be brave enough to be the brave men to force Xi Jinping to admit defeat.

From the perspective of Xi Jinping, he would not believe in the Hua Guofeng model. Hua Guofeng has no personal grievances, and Xi Jinping has accumulated countless hatreds inside and outside the Communist Party. Xi can only resist to the end, otherwise there would be no place to bury him. Even if the stubborn resistance is delayed for a period of time, the three treasures, wife, children, and wallet can be transferred instead of letting his entire army being wiped out. As for the CCP and the state, that is on the next level, and the Chinese people are not even in the consideration.

Just as I said before: the two sides will not give way to each other. If no compromise is reached, there is only a coup d'etat. Regardless of whether it is a Lin Biao-style coup or a Hua Guofeng-style coup, they will face a difficult problem: who would be elected to power? Therefore, all CCP factions are venting in overseas media: it must be so and so who is the most suitable, and who is the most beneficial to the Communist regime. Among them, the selection by Falun Gong is relatively reliable. They want the most ethical person. Their chosen candidate is lawyer Gao Zhisheng.

We cannot say whether Mr. Gao himself would accept this recommendation. But it means that there is indeed no one within the CCP who meets the ethical standards. To seek a candidate within the CCP, they can only find a weak master who is not opposed by many parties. This compromise is also in line with the laws of history in China and abroad for thousands of years. However, the consequence of the weak master is to continue to intensify the internal fighting, as it did in the Later Han, Late Tang, and the late Qing Dynasty. This fighting quickly moves towards civil strife and destruction, with the common Chinese suffering and starving to death.

Is China's destiny so miserable? Not necessarily. After all, it is not ancient times anymore, and countries and people have different choices. Palace coups, military coups, and even national uprisings, all have the possibility of choosing to move towards a new system. After all, for past several decades or even more than a hundred years, the Chinese people have long seen better choices: democracy, the rule of law, and a free political system that is more in line with the common needs of mankind. Why don’t we follow the example of the American pioneers -- overthrow a tyranny and establish a system of democracy and freedom?

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-08172020100207.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2020/WeiJS200816onBeidaiheConference.mp3

(Written on and recorded on August 16, 2020. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on August 17, 2020.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1316-W931

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1316-W931

Release Date: August 17, 2020

发布日：2020年8月17日

Topic: Summer in Beidaihe -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：北戴河的夏天 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2020/report2020-08/WeiJS200810onBeidaiheConferenceA1316-W931.htm

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北戴河的夏天

-- 魏京生

北戴河的夏天是个避暑的好去处。中共执政以来，这儿被中共高层垄断起来，成为最高决策层决定国家大事的会议场所。就像斯大林的通宵晚餐一样，在正式的大会之前决定国家大事。大会只不过是装装样子，举手投票而已。中共继承了斯大林的衣钵，包括这种奇葩的假民主形式。

今年的北戴河会议还没结束，海外自媒体就已经议论纷纷了。盖因为今年的大事太多，共产党政权摇摇欲坠，平常更无一人是男儿的官员和元老们，不得不在这次北戴河会议上做一个了断。什么了断呢？就是决定习近平和中共的命运。

我在三个多月前就说过：中共如果不停止习近平的倒行逆施，就只能灭亡，并且连累国家陷入崩溃，将人民推入水深火热之中。而制止习近平胡作非为的机会，就是今年的北戴河会议。如果确实更无一人是男儿，北戴河会议就会风平浪静，之后大家就等着死无葬身之地吧。

会议开了半个月还没结束，正说明还是有人不甘心共产党垮台，自己死无葬身之地。奋起反抗十分激烈，鹿死谁手还未可知。但从传出的消息看，至少有三派意见针锋相对。第一派是强硬派，主张热战核武派，好像对习近平向美国妥协不满，也要求换人。一派是中间派，主张三硬三软，继续对外韬光养晦，对内强硬压制，混过美国大选再说。另一派主张改革以便顺应潮流的，似乎没什么发言权，仅仅表现在李克强总理对抗习近平的无聊举动上。

这三派博弈的结果，正如我三个月前所说的那样：要么华国锋模式，习近平主动下台，改革开放再一次开始，韬光养晦继续忽悠。但是美国人和中国老百姓还会被继续忽悠吗？不靠谱。而且会议开了半个月还没结束，就说明习近平不接受这种模式，元老们可能还不够是男儿，不能迫使小习认怂。

从小习的角度看他也不会相信华国锋模式。老华没有个人恩怨，小习积累了无数的党内外仇恨。他只能顽抗到底，否则死无葬身之地。即使顽抗到底拖延一段时间，也可以转移三宝，老婆、孩子、钱包，不至于全军覆没。至于党和国家，那是下一个层次的问题，人民根本不在考虑之列。

正像我说过的那样：双方互不相让，达不成妥协，就只剩下政变一条路了。不管是林彪式的政变还是华国锋式的政变，都将面临一个难题：推举谁上台？所以各门各派都在海外媒体上放风：一定是谁谁谁最合适，谁谁谁对党国最有利。其中法轮功的推选还算比较靠谱，他们要最有道德操行的人，中选者是高智晟律师。

莫说高先生自己是不是接受这个推选，就说共产党内确实也找不到符合道德操行标准的人了。在他们党内找，也只能找一个多方都不反对的弱主，这也符合几千年来的国内外历史规律。但是弱主的后果就是继续内斗加剧，像后汉、晚唐、清末那样，迅速走向内乱和灭亡。连累老百姓十室九空，饿殍遍野。

中国的命运难道就是这样惨吗？不一定。毕竟现在不是古代了，国家和人民有不同的选择。宫廷政变和军事政变以至于全民起义，都有选择走向新体制的可能。毕竟几十年来甚至一百多年来，中国人民早就看到了更好的选择：民主、法治、自由的政治体制，更符合人类的共同需要。为何不去仿照美国先贤那样，推翻一个暴政，建立民主自由呢？

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/weijingsheng-08172020100207.html