Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1327-W942

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1327-W942

Release Date: October 6, 2020

发布日：2020年10月6日

Topic: Changes in Beijing -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：北京的变局 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Changes in Beijing

-- Wei Jingsheng

Although President Trump's infection with Wuhan pneumonia is hot news in major newspapers around the world, most media have also noticed the strange chess game in Beijing recently: Xi Jinping not only severely sentenced Ren Zhiqiang, which was interpreted as turning his face against his base in the “Red second generation;” in the past few days, he has also seized Wang Qishan's right-hand man, which was interpreted as having turned his face against the liberal faction. Does he think that he can be a dictator relying on flatterers?

Wang Qishan made great contributions to Xi Jinping's fight against his political enemies. Now that Xi Jinping has turned his back on his own people, the media in Hong Kong and Taiwan cannot help but cry foul. But this is standard practice for the Chinese Communist regime. In order to establish Mao Zedong's absolute authority, Liu Shaoqi made warhorse contributions yet died in Mao’s prison; Lin Biao made irreplaceable contributions to the Communist Party's conquest of a nation, yet his plane crashed on the Gobi Desert in Mongolia. Has Wang Qishan been wronged? It's just in line with standard practice.

I know many national leaders in this world and have found a pattern of behavior: they are not exactly the same person before and after taking office. They have different degrees of ego-inflation, but alienation from all their social relationships, and their words losing credibility are also quite common. It's like the monkey's coat becoming a different color after becoming the monkey king. It happens even in democratic countries. But by contrast, with the tyrants of past dynasties, the animal brutality hidden in their genes began to emerge and various cruel and obscene things gradually appeared.

Therefore, the developed societies of the East and the West have gradually added restrictions and constraints on monarchs to prevent excessive power from leading to brutality and outrages. These restrictions on power have developed in modern times to a democratic system. Only under a democratic system can power be controlled most effectively, and no unreasonable disasters be brought to the individuals. Brutal expansion also will run into obstacles on all sides, and power is no longer a threat to society.

Why have Mao Zedong and Xi Jinping both been cruel and ruthless towards their best friends and most important supporters? Because the rulers’ ego-expansion makes them unable to tolerate opposition, and even a little disrespect will be infinitely magnified and seen as a threat to the dictatorship. The already swollen heart cannot stand it, thus does rage start from the heart, evil grows outward and must eliminate these past friends and supporters for their own good.

When ordinary people have these emotions, which cannot be realized because of environmental factors; individual unwise people will be punished by society. The environment in which dictators are not punished is precisely the reason for their brutality and misconduct. Liu Shaoqi thought that Mao Zedong would forgive him on account of his past achievements. He lingered in front of Mao's gate for a long time, but he was not permitted to get in. Therefore, Lin Biao knew that there was no friendship, warmth or appreciation among tyrants; nor could he argue rationally with Mao. He could only resist by force.

This is the fundamental reason why authoritarian regimes are often overthrown by violence. A democratic regime treats the overthrow of a government as the implementation of the constitution, regularly renewing the government. It avoids indefinite rule creating a dictatorship, and does not trust the so-called enlightened leader to win the hearts of the people. The choice of leaders and major policies by the people has fundamentally avoided the social unrest and the loss of property and population caused by violent revolutions.

But authoritarian regimes and dictators are not fools. They have a set of policies to maintain their rule. In addition to ruses and repression, they use a reverse elimination system of human resources management to ensure that no resistance is generated. The Deng Xiaoping era already wiped out the power of political reform within the Communist Party. Xi Jinping has done even worse, and with his butcher knife is already destroying his own political base.

No matter whether the Red Second Generation or ordinary people, big capital or small staff, and including the nearly half of China’s population that is poor, all have realized the advantages of democracy and the rule of law. They demand not only a prosperous life, but also freedom and dignity, as well as the right to personal protection. If the dictatorship cannot be overthrown peacefully, they can only exercise their right to overthrow tyranny by violence. From the Lin Biao-style coup to the Hua Guofeng-style coup, even to the Chen Sheng and Wu Guang type of rebellion (a Qin Dynasty soldier uprising), all are in line with our Chinese political and cultural traditions.

What is ridiculous is that a small group of so-called elites who survive around bureaucrats such as Wang Qishan have always mocked the people's right to overthrow tyranny by violence. But what choice does Wang Qishan have now? A Communist Party’s Central Committee plenary meeting held by a group of cowards who dare to be angry but dare not speak? It appears to be hopeless.

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-10052020134549.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2020/WeiJS201005onChangesinBeijing.mp3

(Written and recorded on October 5, 2020. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on October 5, 2020.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1327-W942

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1327-W942

Release Date: October 6, 2020

发布日：2020年10月6日

Topic: Changes in Beijing -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：北京的变局 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2020/report2020-10/WeiJS201006onChangesinBeijingA1327-W942.htm

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北京的变局

-- 魏京生

虽然川普总统感染武汉肺炎，是世界各大报的热门新闻，但大多数媒体也注意到最近北京的诡异棋局：习近平不但重判了任志强，被解读为和他的基本盘红二代们翻脸了；而且这几天又抓了王岐山的左右手，被解读为和自由派精英们翻了脸。他是不是觉得靠马屁精们就可以当独裁者了？

王岐山为习近平打击政敌立下了汗马功劳。现在习近平翻脸不认人，港台媒体不禁为他喊冤。可是这是规律。刘少奇为树立毛泽东的绝对权威，立下了汉马功劳，结果死在毛的监狱里。林彪为共产党打天下立下了不可替代的功劳，结果飞机坠毁在蒙古戈壁滩上。王岐山冤吗？符合规律而已。

我认识这个世界上不少的国家领导人，发现一个规律：上台前后不完全是同一个人了。他们自我膨胀的程度不等，但六亲不认，说了不算倒很正常。就好像猴子当了猴王之后，毛色都不一样了。这还是民主国家。反观历朝历代的独裁者们，那就是他们基因里潜藏的兽性开始发作，各种残忍荒淫无道的事情逐渐显现。

所以东西方的发达社会，都逐渐发展出对君主们的限制和制约，防止权力太大导致兽性大发，胡作非为。这种对权力的制约发展到现代，就是民主体制。只有在民主体制下，权力才被最有效地管制起来，不会给个人带来无妄之灾，兽性膨胀也会四处碰壁。权力不再是对社会的危害。

为什么毛泽东和习近平，都会对他们最好的朋友和最重要的支持者残酷无情呢？因为王者的自我膨胀让他们不能忍受反对意见，甚至稍微不敬也会被无限放大，成为对独裁的威胁。已经膨胀的内心绝对不能容忍，正所谓怒从心头起，恶向胆边生，必欲除之而后快。

普通人有这种情绪，被环境等等因素限制不能实现，个别不明智的人就会受到社会的惩罚。而独裁者不被惩罚的环境，正是他们大发兽性，胡作非为的原因。刘少奇以为毛泽东看在过去的功劳上，会放他一马。他在毛的门前徘徊了很久，结果不得其门而入。所以林彪就知道和独裁者之间没有什么友情、温情或功劳，也无法讲理，只能以武力反抗。

这就是专制政权往往是被暴力推翻的根本原因。而民主政权把推翻政府当作宪法执行，定期更新政府，避免无限期执政制造出独裁，且不把得民心者得天下寄托在所谓的明君身上。由人民投票选择领导人和大政方针，从根本上避免了暴力革命造成的社会动荡和财产人口的损失。

但是专制政权和独裁者们也不是傻瓜，他们有一套维持自己统治的方针政策。除了忽悠加镇压之外，就是人才管理的逆淘汰制度，以便确保没有反抗的力量产生。邓小平时代就把党内政治改革的力量消灭掉了，习近平有过之而无不及，屠刀已经杀向了他自己的政治基础。

无论红二代还是老百姓；无论大资本还是小职员，包括中国那将近一半的穷困人口，都已经认识到民主法治的优越性。他们既要求有富裕的生活，也要求自由和尊严，更希望得到人身保障的权利。如果不能以和平的方式推翻独裁专制统治，就只能行使他们暴力推翻暴政的权利。从林彪式的政变到华国锋式的政变，以至于陈胜吴广式的造反，符合咱们中国政治文化传统。

可笑的是围绕王岐山等官僚生存的一小部分所谓的精英，一贯嘲笑人民以暴力推翻暴政的权利。可是现在王岐山们还有什么选择呢？一群敢怒不敢言的懦夫们召开的中央全会吗？看上去没什么希望。

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-10052020134549.html