Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1422-W1025

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1422-W1025

Release Date: October 31, 2021

发布日：2021年10月31日

Topic: Unification With Taiwan Peacefully or Through Force? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：和统还是武统？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Unification With Taiwan Peacefully or Through Force?

-- Wei Jingsheng

The most lively things on the Internet in China now are the scandals of celebrities and dissidents. As long as something is suspected to prevent Xi Jinping from becoming an emperor, all kinds of scandals will happen immediately and your social status would be dead. But internationally, the most lively issue is the crisis across the Taiwan Strait. This is not only related to the world, but also to the future of us the Chinese. The cries and screams have been going on more than 70 years now, but it's still not clear whether the issue will resolve with a peaceful unification or military takeover.

Over the years, Xi Jinping has exercised military reunification while continuously proclaiming that he will not give up peaceful reunification. So the Western analysts and the media are a little confused. The reason that they are confused is that they all live in a trustworthy environment, and they habitually believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) also follows the famous saying of Confucius: people cannot stand without trust.

Regrettably, the Communist regime follows Deng Xiaoping’s famous saying: No matter black cat or white cat, catching mice is a good cat. In the words of scholars, it is pragmatism; only the results matter regardless of the process. Therefore, in the eyes of ordinary people in mainland China who are familiar with the Communist regime, reunification peacefully and reunification through the force are all the truth, depending on the timing, conditions, and needs.

Let's take a look at the conditions first. The most unfavorable condition is the international environment. The wolf warrior diplomacy over the recent years has caused anger and resentment. It can be said that this makes the Communist regime take the blame at every turn. If another war is launched, it will be opposed by the whole world. By then, the West will collectively assist Taiwan, and neighboring countries will look for trouble, and there will be no chance of winning. It is very likely that the Chinese Communist regime will collapse and disintegrate like the Soviet Union.

The second unfavorable condition is the Communist regime’s corrupt governance of its military. This has caused disconcertment among its officers and soldiers, and their combat effectiveness has dropped drastically. The promotion of the military officers also follows the rule of reverse elimination, with corruption as the mainstay and flattery as a supplement. The authority and military literacy of most officers are close to zero. And fear of death because of love for money has become a universal law. Can such a military deal with the Eight-Power Allied Forces? History has already given lessons for the past. Relying on inciting civil boxers can only have a negative effect.

The third disadvantage is that Xi Jinping's recklessness in Hong Kong has warned the people of Taiwan. This has led to its decades-long United Front spy infiltrations suddenly to be destroyed. The hope of peaceful reunification is dwindling. In addition to helping the Democratic Progressive Party win its election campaign, it has become a poison for KMT’s election in Taiwan. In this regard, the Taiwanese businessmen and star performers who love money like their lives can't help much. Buying them is just a waste of money.

In short, the flatterers around Xi Jinping will list countless favorable conditions to fool him. If no one inside of the CCP is a real brave man, then it will only accelerate the collapse of the Communist regime. I have no objection, the sooner the better. But I only worry about the Soviet model.

Regarding the needs, China does not need to “liberate” Taiwan to protect its core interests. This self-evident truth does not need to be explained to a bunch of fanatical ignoramuses. But do the CCP and Xi Jinping have this need? That is something else.

During the most dangerous and difficult period of the Red Army period (from the 1920’s to 1930’s), the CCP needed to hype up against foreign enemies to relieve itself by establishing an anti-Japanese united front. Has the current CCP reached the moment of almost extinction? Maybe not. Then the issue is only whether Xi Jinping needs it or not. If he thinks it is necessary to rely on a war to defend his emperor's status, it is not impossible for him to take the risk to launch a war which he has no chance of winning. It doesn't matter what the rest is: Après moi, le déluge? Without Xi's future, it cannot be called as a future.

Therefore, the people of Taiwan must support their government and strengthen various military and diplomatic measures to consolidate their national defense. In particular, we must prevent the CCP from brainwashing public opinion and media. What is an opportunity for Xi Jinping and the CCP? It is the fools of Taiwanese businessmen and spies who make money more important than security, and they think that they are wise enough to play a united front game with the CCP in Mainland China. This is the opportunity for unification by force.

When most people are immersed in the dream of pacifism, do you think the CCP will have the patience to wait? Under that situation, the top CCP leaders who are now opposing war will also change their minds. This is what they think as the best time for unification by force. Fortunately, Han Kuo-yu (of the KMT) was not elected, and Xi Jinping missed Ma Ying-jeou's final term (as the President). That was also because Xi's position was not stable at that time, and he did not have enough power despite his will.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-10262021101000.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2021/WeiJS211022onTaiwanUnification.mp3

(Written on October 20 and recorded on October 22, 2021. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on October 26, 2021.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1422-W1025

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1422-W1025

Release Date: October 31, 2021

发布日：2021年10月31日

Topic: Unification With Taiwan Peacefully or Through Force? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：和统还是武统？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2021/report2021-10/WeiJS211031onTaiwanUnificationA1422-W1025.htm

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和统还是武统？

-- 魏京生

现在国内网上最热闹的，是明星和异议人士的绯闻。只要是被怀疑妨碍了习近平当皇帝的，马上就会发生各种绯闻，让你社会死亡。而国际上最热闹的则是台海危机。这不但和世界局势有关，也和咱们中国人的前途相关。已经大喊大叫七十年了，现在却还搞不清楚，和统还是武统的问题。

习近平这些年来一边演练武统，一边不断高调宣称不放弃和平统一。西方的分析家和媒体就有点儿懵圈儿了。之所以懵圈儿，是因为他们都生活在讲信用的环境里，习惯性地认为共产党也遵循孔老夫子的名言：人无信不立。

遗憾的是，共产党遵循的是邓小平的名言：无论黑猫白猫，抓住老鼠就是好猫。用学者的话说，就是实用主义，只要结果不讲过程。所以在熟悉共产党的大陆老百姓看来，和统武统都是真话，要看时机、条件和需要而定。

我们先来看看条件。最不利的条件就是国际环境。这些年来的战狼外交，搞得天怒人怨。可以说这让共产党动辄得咎，如果再搞出一场战争，会遭到全世界的反对。届时西方集体援助台湾，周边国家纷纷找麻烦，就没有一丝胜算了。很可能导致共产党跨台，苏联解体。

第二个不利的条件，就是共产党的腐败治军。这导致军队官兵离心离德，战斗力大幅度下降。军官的升迁也遵循以腐败为主，拍马屁为辅的逆淘汰规则。大部分军官的权威和军事素养接近于零。而且因为爱钱而怕死成了普遍规律。这样的军队能对付八国联军吗？历史已经给出了前车之鉴了，靠煽动民间的义和团，只有负面作用。

第三个不利条件，是习近平在香港的蛮干，警惕了台湾人民。让统战间谍们几十年来的渗透，毁于一旦。和平统一的希望越来越渺茫。除了帮助民进党竞选以外，就是成为国民党的票房毒药。在这方面爱钱如命的台商和演艺明星们，也帮不了什么忙，收买他们就是白扔钱。

总之，习近平周围的马屁精们，会列出无数有利条件来忽悠他，如果中共内部更无一人是男儿，那就只好加速崩溃吧。我不反对，越快越好，只担心苏联的模式。

至于需要，中国不需要解放台湾来保护自己的核心利益，这个不言自明的道理，用不着和一帮狂热的愚昧之徒讲解。但是共产党和习近平有没有这个需要呢？就得另说着了。

共产党在最危难的红军时期，需要炒作抵御外敌来给自己解套，建立抗日统一战线。现在的共产党到了几乎灭亡的时刻吗？好像没有。那就只剩下习近平有没有需要了。如果他认为有必要靠一场战争来保卫他的皇帝地位的话，冒险发动一场没有胜算的战争，不是没有可能。剩下其它的就无所谓了，管它洪水滔天呢？没有咱小习的前途，那就不叫前途。

所以台湾的人民必须支持自己的政府，加强各方面的军事外交措施，来巩固自身的国防。特别是要防止共产党在舆论媒体方面的洗脑。对习近平和共产党来说，什么是机会呢？就是在台商和间谍的忽悠之下，把钱看得比安全更重要，自以为高明和大陆玩统战游戏。这就是武力统一的机会来到了。

当大部分人都沉浸在和平主义的梦幻里的时候，你以为共产党会有耐心等待吗？那种形势下，现在反对开战的中共高层也会改变主意，这就是他们认为的武力统一的最佳时机。还好韩国瑜没有当选，习近平错过了马英九的最后任期。也是因为那时候小习的地位还不稳，有心无力而已。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-10262021101000.html