Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1363-W975

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1363-W975

Release Date: March 6, 2021

发布日：2021年3月6日

Topic: Get Out of Poverty or Become Poorer? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：脱贫还是更贫？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Get Out of Poverty or Become Poorer?

-- Wei Jingsheng

Xi Jinping declared without embarrassment that China is once again out of poverty. From the 80 million households in poverty during the Zhao Ziyang era to nearly 100 million people in poverty more than 30 years later during the Xi Jinping era. It's dazzling and unclear at first. But then something unbelievable still happened. Within one year, 99,980,000 people in China were lifted out of poverty all at once. Is there any trick in this miracle? It's worth it for us to talk about it.

The Chinese Communist Party’s figures have never been credible. It was so during Mao Zedong’s era, and there was no difference during Deng Xiaoping’s era. Even the CCP officials did not believe the official figures, and had to send someone to investigate privately. Why? The first was due to concealing truth and making false reports, which reached a culmination during the Great Leap Forward period in the late 1950s. However, deceptive tricks cannot be repeated. In the era of Deng Xiaoping, he learned from the West to play with data.

The method is very simple. Set the standard lower and you can get the desired data. For a population of one billion Chinese, there were 80 million poor people, which was not too high or low but just right to be enough to silence criticism. Last year, there was a population of 1.4 billion Chinese with 100 million poor people, and the ratio was about the same. Not only did it leave enough room to allow the superiors to earn credit for poverty alleviation, but also allowed the grassroots cadres to earn money from the poverty, which should make everyone very happy.

This game of playing with numbers should made people feel dizzy. To put it simply, according to the standards of the United Nations, China's poverty line should be above 10,000 Yuan per year; and according to the relatively lower standard of the World Bank, China’s poverty line should be above 9,000 Yuan. Last year, Premier Li Keqiang disclosed that there are 600 million people in China with an annual income of less than 10,000 Yuan. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, there are more than 600 million people at or below the poverty line of an annual income of a little more than 9,000 Yuan. To be conservative, there were at least 600 million poor people in China last year, while the true figure may reach half of the population in China.

So how it could be that the whole population was suddenly lifted out of poverty, like a spring breeze that wakes up nature overnight? It should be seen as a blatant fraud to shed one's burden, equivalent to announcing that it is no longer necessary engage in poverty alleviation work. It is still in Mao Zedong's style -- if I say that one Chinese acre could yield 10,000 pounds of rice then it must be true that all the credit is earned by lip service. Is it simply for the purpose of no longer engaging in poverty alleviation work? It's not that simple.

The Chinese economic situation that Xi Jinping is facing now is very severe. Simply put, he has no money to spend. Since last year, the economy in China has been hit by the pandemic and has fallen sharply. Chinese exports were sanctioned by the United States and revenues were reduced. Just by looking at Xi Jinping's effort of robbing wealth that has reached to the richest men in China, one would know that Xi is short of money. But robbing the rich is risky, so Xi just needs to keep it in moderation. So who else’s wealth could be taken? The middle-class and lower-class Chinese with a large population.

Xi Jinping has been very successful in dealing with Trump's trade war in the past few years, and has enabled the US-China trade deficit to not decrease but increase. However, it was the poor and working-class in China who paid the price. How was it done? This process is a bit complicated and needs to be disassembled layer by layer. The first step is for the United States to increase tariffs, then China reduces its prices to compensate, thus the export quotas are not affected. It seems that the income of Chinese exporters has fallen. Without intervention, exports would have fallen. This was the expectation of the Trump team. But it didn't happen, so Trump had to step down.

Why didn't it happen? It is because China can manipulate domestic prices. People may have noticed that the prices of domestic basic consumer goods have soared in China, which are now much higher than the international norm. The income of the working class in China is mainly consumed on basic commodities, and their income has shrunk far more than the so-called average price level. In other words, the actual purchasing power of working-class income has declined, and they bear the main part of the economic robbery through foreign trade. In other words, according to constant standards, the number of people living in poverty has increased rather than decreased; and they have no way to escape from this poverty.

So the income of Chinese exporters has fallen, why hasn’t the export volume decreased? It is because these Chinese exporters can exchange their earned US dollars for high RMB rate on the black market. As long as the Chinese government tightens the foreign exchange quotas of importers, they will buy foreign currency on the black market at high prices. Because the profits of the import market are so high, importers can afford to buy foreign exchange at high prices. There are many channels for the private exchange of foreign currency, and a high-priced foreign exchange can make up for the loss due to the tariff by the USA. Therefore, for Chinese exporters, profits have not decreased, and the motivation for export is still strong.

The excess profits due to the import and export price difference are distributed among importers and exporters, so Xi Jinping successfully defeated Trump. While Xi was defeating Trump to protect the export surplus, he sacrificed the real income of the Chinese working class and increased the poor population in China. Without knowing it, the common Chinese were robbed once more. As the Chinese domestic market has shrunk further, its overall economy has increased unfavorable factors. Isn’t this the traditional mentality of “giving gifts to a friendly neighbor rather than a slave at home”?

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03052021104209.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2021/WeiJS210304onPoverty.mp3

(Written on March 3, 2021 and recorded on March 4, 2021. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on March 5, 2021.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1363-W975

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1363-W975

Release Date: March 6, 2021

发布日：2021年3月6日

Topic: Get Out of Poverty or Become Poorer? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：脱贫还是更贫？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2021/report2021-3/WeiJS210306onPovertyA1363-W975.htm

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脱贫还是更贫

-- 魏京生

习近平大言不惭地宣布，中国又一次脱贫了。从赵紫阳时代的八千多万贫困户，脱贫到了习近平时代的将近一亿贫困户，脱了三十多年还剩下将近一亿。本来就让人看得眼花缭乱，不明就里。可是不可思议的事情还是发生了，在一年时间里就把九千九百九十八万贫困户，一下子就都给脱贫了。这奇迹里，别是有什么猫腻吧？值得说道说道。

中共的数字从来就不可信，毛泽东时代如此，邓小平时代也不例外。连他们自己都不相信官方的数字，还要派人私下里调查。为什么呢？第一是瞒报虚报，五十年代大跃进就玩得登峰造极了。但是骗人的招数不能反复出现，到了邓小平时代就从西方学来了玩弄数据。

方法很简单，把标准定得低一点，就可以得出想要的数据。十亿人民八千万穷人，不高不低刚刚好，足以堵住批评的嘴了。到去年十四亿人民一个亿穷人，比例差不多。既让上级可以给脱贫功劳留下足够的空间，也让基层干部有得赚，皆大欢喜了。

这一番数字游戏弄得人头昏脑胀。简单点说就是按照联合国的标准，中国的贫困线是年收入一万多元；按照世界银行比较低的标准，贫困线是九千多元。去年李克强总理披露了一个数字，中国有六亿人年收入不到一万元。而国家统计局的六亿多人标准线是年收入九千多元。保守点说，去年中国至少还有六亿多人的贫困户。真正的数字恐怕会达到一半人口。

怎么就忽如一夜春风来，全部人口都脱贫了呢？应该是公然造假，甩包袱，等于宣布不再从事脱贫工作了。还是毛泽东那一套，我说亩产万斤就是亩产万斤，功劳都是说出来的。仅仅是不再从事脱贫工作了吗？事情没这么简单。

小习现在面临的经济形势非常严峻，简单说就是没钱花了。去年以来经济受疫情打击，急剧下降。出口受美国制裁，收入减少。只看习近平割韭菜都割到了顶级富豪，就知道他们缺钱缺到了什么地步。可是割富豪们的韭菜有风险，要适可而止。那么还有谁可以割韭菜呢？人口众多的中产下层老百姓。

习近平过去几年应对川普的贸易战很成功，贸易逆差不减反增。但是承受代价的是中国的穷人，工薪阶层。怎么做到的呢？这个过程有点复杂，需要一层层拆开来说。第一步就是美国加税中国降价，出口额度不受影响。这样看上去就是中国的出口商收入下降了，不加干预的话，出口就会下降。这是川普团队的预计。但是没实现，所以川普下台了。

为什么没实现呢？因为中国可以操纵国内的物价。大家可能注意到国内基本生活消费品物价飞涨，比国际物价高出很多。而工薪阶层的收入主要消费在基本商品上，他们收入的缩水远远超过所谓的平均物价水平。也就是说，工薪阶层收入的实际购买力下降了，他们承受了外贸割韭菜的主要部分。或者说，按照不变的标准，贫困人口是增加了而不是减少了，更没有脱贫。

那么出口商的收入下降了，为什么出口量却没减少呢？这是因为出口商们可以把挣到的美元，在黑市兑换出高价的人民币。政府只要收紧进口商的外汇额度，他们就会用高价在黑市购买外汇。由于进口市场的利润太高，所以进口商们可以出高价购买出口商的外汇。私下兑换外汇的渠道很多，高价兑换外汇可以弥补因美国税收而造成的损失。所以对出口商来说利润并没有减少，出口的动机仍然强劲。

进出口差价的超额利润在进出口商之间分配，所以习近平成功地打败了川普。在打败川普保护了出口顺差的同时，却牺牲了中国工薪阶级的实际收入，更增加了中国的贫困人口。老百姓不知不觉就被大大地割了一层韭菜。中国的国内市场进一步收缩，整体经济增加了不利因素。这不就是传统的宁予友邦，不与家奴的心态吗？

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03052021104209.html