Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1378-W987

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1378-W987

Release Date: May 3, 2021

发布日：2021年5月3日

Topic: Should the US Have a Clear Strategy or a Vague Strategy for Taiwan? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：美国对台湾应该战略清晰还是战略模糊? -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Should the US Have a Clear Strategy or a Vague Strategy for Taiwan?

-- Wei Jingsheng

The more than one century old British magazine "The Economist" published a cover article with a title that named Taiwan as “the most dangerous place on earth.” There was a lot of related talk and discussion and the reporters interviewed people from all walks of life in Taiwan. Their responses are very interesting. The most representative one was: we are not nervous; it is the foreigners who are nervous for us. The second most representative one was that: these people are making us to buy weapons again. The mentality of the Chinese little landlord is shown very well by these people in Taiwan.

Has the Taiwan Strait crisis entered a dangerous moment? It was not really so a few years ago. At that time, the economic situation in Mainland China was relatively good, and Xi Jinping's position was good. Xi was busy purging the bureaucrats to ensure that his personal dictatorship was more stable. He was fighting against corruption and advocating integrity, singing red and fighting black, just as a powerful emperor should do. Xi had no time to take care of that tiny place of Taiwan.

Nowadays, Xi’s anti-corruption and advocating integrity are considered to have had no anti-corruption effect, but merely to clean up the ranks for himself. China's economy is declining rapidly, and public grievances accumulated by various unfavorable factors are boiling. Diplomacy also has become wolf warrior like, while the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is relying more and more to incite extreme nationalism to gain legitimacy. At this time, a climax is needed to cover up the failure of the dictatorship, while the expansion of the Chinese military power is steadily moving forward thus the cost of adventure is greatly reduced. This is quite similar to Hitler's situation back then.

As American politicians often ask me: Which country around China will be the target of China’s attack? I replied jokingly: North Korea would be the best. The common people are most nervous about the nuclear weapons possessed by North Korea, which is not very friendly to the Communist China despite it received a lot of aids from China. But I would more seriously reply: Of course it is Taiwan. There are three reasons for this. The first is that it is considered as justified – even the USA would admit that it should be regarded as a civil war. The second is that the United States has no time to react. If it wants to declare war on China, it has to wait for the US Congress to debate and approve it. The third is that the people of Taiwan are prosperous and unwilling to fight. They even wishfully believe that it is impossible to have a war with the Mainland Chinese Communist regime. This is the same mentality that the landlord and rich peasants on Mainland China had before they were suppressed by the Communist regime 70 years ago. Instead, they even asked not to stimulate the Chinese Communist regime to prompt it to go to war.

This third point is indeed Xi Jinping's best chance of winning the war against Taiwan. The art of war said: You can win by successful calculation, as the people of Taiwan are encouraging Xi Jinping to take risks. The fundamental reason why Israel is invincible in the face of powerful enemies is that all its people are rational and know how to protect themselves. The people of Taiwan have no intention of war, and no matter how anxious a few politicians are, they cannot change the situation of defeat. What's more, Taiwan’s weapons are not superior, or even inferior. Where is its chance of winning?

The main argument for the little landlords in Taiwan who do not know fear is that they are important and the United States must protect them. They are bidding on the interests of the United States and international credibility. If Taiwan is lost, the world will no longer believe in the protection of the United States, and the status of the United States will decline. This is a reason, but it's not that strong a reason. The wishful thinking of the talents on the streets is actually the least credible.

The United States does have a motive to protect Taiwan. There is no doubt about it. But is it as easy to go to war with the world’s second largest country as it is to decide to occupy Grenada? Moreover, the United States still has a large number of pro-communist politicians and scholars, including anti-war mass organizations, to create resistance. Only if Taiwan resists for a long enough time will the United States and Japan will have a chance to save it, given that the United States can really get the approval of Congress and go to war with the second military power in the world.

Therefore, the first important factor in defending Taiwan is the determination of the people of Taiwan to defend themselves. But with a gang of politicians followed the direction of Taiwanese businessmen for campaign funds, while the Taiwanese government officials secretly communicated with Communist leaders in Mainland China and ganged up, how could the people of Taiwan afford the determination to resist? In addition, the small landlords who do not know the outside world say: How proud is our Taiwan, we are the best village within the thirty miles radius, and who dares to provoke us? Thus other villagers follow the saying like the ostriches that buried their heads in the sand.

The new US intelligence director Avril Haines said that the related strategy should not be clear, because otherwise China will cause trouble to the United States. This reason is indeed far-fetched. It is because she does not want to offend pro-Taiwan politicians. The real reason is that the Americans have distrusted Taiwan for many years, which has been relying on the protection of the United States while linking up with the Communist regime to make money. Both political parties were doing the same. Once the Taiwan policy is clear, these wolves without hearts will intensify their words and actions, until they finally drag the United States into the quagmire.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-05032021102759.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2021/WeiJS210501onTaiwan.mp3

(Written and recorded on May 1, 2021. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on May 3, 2021.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1378-W987

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1378-W987

Release Date: May 3, 2021

发布日：2021年5月3日

Topic: Should the US Have a Clear Strategy or a Vague Strategy for Taiwan? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：美国对台湾应该战略清晰还是战略模糊? -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2021/report2021-5/WeiJS210503onTaiwanA1378-W987.htm

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美国对台湾应该战略清晰还是战略模糊?

-- 魏京生

英国的百年老店《经济学人》杂志，发表了一篇封面文章，标题就是台湾是世界上最危险的地方。林林总总一通议论，记者们为此访问了台湾各阶层人士。得到的回答很有趣，最有代表性的就是：我们不紧张，外国人替我们紧张。次有代表性的就是：他们又在让我们出钱买武器了。小地主心态跃然纸上。

台海危机是不是进入了危险时刻呢？前几年还真不是。那时候大陆的经济状况还好，习近平地位也还好，正在忙于整肃官僚队伍，以便确保他的个人独裁更加稳固。反腐倡廉，唱红打黑，就像一个强势的皇帝该做的一样。他没工夫搭理台湾那个弹丸之地。

如今反腐倡廉被认为没有反腐的效果，只不过是清理阶级队伍。中国经济在快速下滑，各种不利因素积累的民怨正在走向沸腾。外交也不得不走向战狼化，越来越依靠鼓动极端民族主义来获取合法性。这时候需要一个高潮，来掩盖独裁政治的失败。而军力的扩充却稳步向前，冒险的成本大大降低。这和当年希特勒的处境颇为相似。

就像美国政治家常问我的：中国周边哪个国家会成为目标呢？我开玩笑地答道：最好是北朝鲜。老百姓对朝鲜的核武器最紧张，而且那个白眼狼对中共也不怎么友好。可是认真回答道：当然是台湾。这有三个理由。第一是名正言顺，你们也承认那应该算国内战争。第二是美国来不及反应，你们要向中国宣战得等着国会辩论。第三就是台湾人民生活富足，不愿意打仗，一厢情愿相信不可能打仗。这和大陆七十年前还没被镇压的地主富农是一样的心态。还说如果刺激了共产党反而促使它开战。

这第三条，确实是习近平的胜算。兵法云：算计胜则可战，台湾人民正在促使习近平冒险。以色列为什么面对强敌战无不胜，根本原因就是全民理智，懂得自己保护自己的道理。台湾人民心无战意，少数政治家再着急也改变不了必败的形势。何况武器兵力都不占优势，甚至是劣势。哪里有什么胜算呢？

台湾的小地主们有恃无恐的主要论据，就是我们这个重要，那个重要，美国必须保护我们。把宝压在了美国的利益和国际信誉上。丢掉了台湾，国际就不再相信美国的保护了，美国地位将下降。这是个理由，但没那么强烈，地摊秀才们的一厢情愿的判断，其实最不可信。

美国确实有保护台湾的动机，这一点毋庸置疑。但和世界第二的大国开战，和决策占领格林纳达一样容易吗？何况美国还有大量亲共的政治家和学者，包括反战的群众组织来制造阻力。台湾唯有坚持足够长的时间，美国、日本才有机会救你，假如美国真能通过国会的批准，和第二军事大国开战。

所以保卫台湾的第一重要因素，是台湾人民有保卫自己的决心。一帮政客为了竞选资金顺着台商说话，政府官员和共产党暗通款曲，勾勾搭搭，让台湾人民怎么提得起抵抗的决心？再加上小地主们说：台湾多骄傲呀，我们村三十里内都是老大了，谁敢惹我们？村民们也就跟着阿Q起来了。

美国新任国家情报总监艾薇儿•海恩斯说，不要战略清晰，理由是否则中国会四处给美国捣乱。这理由确实牵强，那是因为她不愿得罪亲台湾的政客们。真正的理由是美国人民多年来对台湾的不信任，一边靠美国保护，一边和共产党勾勾搭搭赚钱。两党一样。一旦清晰了台湾政策，白眼狼们会变本加厉，最后把美国拖入泥潭。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-05032021102759.html